• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.7
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• pp.303-308
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• 2020

Unlike previous studies of overconfidence bias that have been looking for causes of overconfidence bias in human cognitive error or in the desire to view oneself positively, this study presents the cognitive narrowing resulting from the social exclusion experience as the condition of overconfidence bias and investigates the mechanism of cognitive narrowing to overcome the negative emotions from social exclusion, and how overconfidence bias occur due to cognitive narrowing. Current study was performed with 94 undergraduate students. Participants were randomly assigned to social exclusion experience group or non-experience group. We analyzed how the degree of bias of overconfidence differs according to the social exclusion experience. The degree of overconfidence bias of the social exclusion experience group was higher than that of the non-experience group, and the difference was statistically significant. This study extends the concepts of escaping theory and cognitive narrowing to human cognitive bias and confirmed that social exclusion experience increased cognitive narrowing and overconfidence bias. Implications of this research and future research directions were discussed.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.101-113
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• 2020

The study aims to investigate the existence of overconfidence bias in Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore. This paper focuses on the Vietnam Stock Market and other two countries of ASEAN, namely Singapore and Thailand. Data was collected over the period from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2018, daily returns for each of the securities. This paper uses the time series method, namely ADF test, Granger Causality and VAR approach to find evidences of the overconfidence effect in Vietnam in relation to some ASEAN markets. The results show similarities between the observed countries with slight variations, with focus on Vietnam market. In general concrete evidences of overconfidence were found in both Vietnamese and Singaporean markets, in which Singaporean investors show higher degree of overconfidence than Vietnamese investors. Overconfidence is not as clear in Thai market, however a direct causal link from increased returns to increased investor confidence was found. From the model deployed in the paper, there are reasons to conclude that Thai investors are under-confident. The findings of the study shed lights into the existence of overconfidence bias in Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore on a comparative basis, provide more insights and implications for future research in this new and rising field of research.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.87-93
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• 2017

Purpose - This paper investigates whether managerial overconfidence is associated with firm-specific crash risk. Overconfidence leads managers to overestimate the returns of their investment projects, and misperceive negative net present value projects as value creating. They even use voluntary disclosures to convey their optimistic beliefs about the firms' long-term prospects to the stock market. Thus, the overconfidence bias can lead to managerial bad news hoarding behavior. When bad news accumulates and crosses some tipping point, it will come out all at once, resulting in a stock price crash. Research design, data and methodology - 7,385 firm-years used for the main analysis are from the KIS Value database between 2006 and 2013. This database covers KOSPI-listed and KOSDAQ-listed firms in Korea. The proxy for overconfidence is based on excess investment in assets. A residual from the regression of total asset growth on sales growth run by industry-year is used as an independent variable. If a firm has at least one crash week during a year, it is referred to as a high crash risk firm. The dependant variable is a dummy variable that equals 1 if a firm is a high crash risk firm, and zero otherwise. After explaining the relationship between managerial overconfidence and crash risk, the total sample was divided into two sub-samples; chaebol firms and non-chaebol firms. The relation between how I overconfidence and crash risk varies with business group affiliation was investigated. Results - The results showed that managerial overconfidence is positively related to crash risk. Specifically, the coefficient of OVERC is significantly positive, supporting the prediction. The results are strong and robust in non-chaebol firms. Conclusions - The results show that firms with overconfident managers are likely to experience stock price crashes. This study is related to past literature that examines the impact of managerial overconfidence on the stock market. This study contributes to the literature by examining whether overconfidence can explain a firm's future crashes.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.1231-1240
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• 2021

A shift in perspective from standard finance to behavioral finance has taken place in the past two decades that explains how cognition and emotions are associated with financial decision making. This study aims to investigate the influence of various psychological factors on investment decision-making. The psychological factors that are investigated are differentiated into two aspects, cognitive and emotional aspects. From the cognitive aspect, we examine the influence of anchoring, representativeness, loss aversion, overconfidence, and optimism biases on investor decisions. Meanwhile, from the emotional aspect, the influence of herding behavior on investment decisions is analyzed. A quantitative approach is used based on a survey method and a snowball sampling that result in 165 questionnaires from individual investors in Yogyakarta. Further, we use the One-Sample t-test in testing all hypotheses. The research findings show that all of the variables, anchoring bias, representativeness bias, loss aversion bias, overconfidence bias, optimism bias, and herding behavior have a significant effect on investment decisions. This result emphasizes the influence of behavioral factors on investor's decisions. It contributes to the existing literature in understanding the dynamics of investor's behaviors and enhance the ability of investors in making more informed decision by reducing all potential biases.

• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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• v.36 no.6
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• pp.935-946
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• 2016

This study aims to explore cognitive biases relating the core competences of science and instructional strategy in reducing the level of cognitive biases. The literature review method was used to explore cognitive biases and science education experts discussed the relevance of cognitive biases to science education. Twenty nine cognitive biases were categorized into five groups (limiting rational causal inference, limiting diverse information search, limiting self-regulated learning, limiting self-directed decision making, and category-limited thinking). The cognitive biases in limiting rational causal inference group are teleological thinking, availability heuristic, illusory correlation, and clustering illusion. The cognitive biases in limiting diverse information search group are selective perception, experimenter bias, confirmation bias, mere thought effect, attentional bias, belief bias, pragmatic fallacy, functional fixedness, and framing effect. The cognitive biases in limiting self-regulated learning group are overconfidence bias, better-than-average bias, planning fallacy, fundamental attribution error, Dunning-Kruger effect, hindsight bias, and blind-spot bias. The cognitive biases in limiting self-directed decision-making group are acquiescence effect, bandwagon effect, group-think, appeal to authority bias, and information bias. Lastly, the cognitive biases in category-limited thinking group are psychological essentialism, stereotyping, anthropomorphism, and outgroup homogeneity bias. The instructional strategy to reduce the level of cognitive biases is disused based on the psychological characters of cognitive biases reviewed in this study and related science education methods.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.25 no.7
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• pp.159-165
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• 2020

With respect to the cause of asymmetric cost behavior, there are two streams of the literature. One stream focused on effect of managerial expectation and the other explained using agency system. In this study, we aim to investigate the determinants of asymmetric cost behavior in these streams. We first examine the impact of managerial overconfidence and optimistic bias on asymmetric cost. We also examine ownership ratio as a proxy of the quality of corporate governance effects on asymmetric cost. The results are as follows. First, firms have the anti-sticky asymmetric cost behavior. Second, we find that the firms with managerial optimistic bias mitigate the degree of asymmetric cost. This finding implies that managerial optimism is a factor that alters asymmetric cost behavior. Third, the degree of asymmetric cost is weaker in case of firms with higher manager's ownership. This result provides an important empirical evidence for understanding the role of corporate governance in cost behavior.

• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.214-220
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• 2000

The difference (bias) between self-efficacy and chemistry problem-solving ability was investigated for 96 (male: 48, female: 48) high school students. A self-efficacy instrument was administered, which asked the confidence in solving algorithmic and conceptual problems successfully. Their chemistry problem-solving ability was then assessed with 10 algorithmic and 10 conceptual problems as same in the self-efficacy instrument. Although students had higher scores in the algorithmic problems, no significant difference was found in the self-efficacy to solve the two different forms of problems. Therefore, the bias scores in the conceptual problems were higher than those in the algorithmic problems. Two-way ANOVA results for the bias in the algorithmic problems revealed a significant interaction between gender and the previous achievement level. Analysis of simple effects indicated that the bias scores of high-achieving boys were significantly higher than those of high-achieving girls. While most high-achieving boys were in the overconfident category, high-achieving girls were more likely to be in the underconfident category.

• Human Ecology Research
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• v.56 no.5
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• pp.447-460
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• 2018

This study determines whether certain cognitive biases (i.e., time preference, goal attainment expectation, unrealistic optimism, and overconfidence) and a specific negative mood-state (i.e., anxiety) influence credit misuse among college students. Data were collected from fourth-year college students (N=1,146), all of whom attended the same university in the southwest United States. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses and moderator analyses were employed to test the research hypotheses. Results showed that specific cognitive biases and anxiety were directly associated with credit misuse. We found that the longer goal attainment was delayed, the greater the students' unrealistic optimism concerning future income; in addition, the more overconfident they became with respect to financial knowledge, the more frequently they engaged in credit misuse. The study also showed that the higher a student's level of anxiety, the more often that students engaged in credit misuse. We also found that cognitive bias factors and anxiety interact to influence credit misuse. Anxiety interacted with time preference and unrealistic optimism such that present-oriented time preference was negatively related to credit misuse while optimism toward future income was positively related to credit misuse, but only for students with high anxiety levels. The findings of this study are discussed in the context of understanding and preventing irresponsible financial behavior among young adults.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.95-112
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• 2020

This paper is to investigate how cognitive bias of college students and entrepreneurs relates to perceived risks and entrepreneurial opportunities that represent uncertainty, and how various cognitive bias and entrepreneurial efficacy In the same way. The purpose of this study is to find improvement points of entrepreneurship education for college students and to suggest problems and improvement possibilities in the decision making process of current entrepreneurs. This empirical study is a necessary to improve the decision-making of individuals who want to start a business at the time when various attempts are made to activate the start-up business and increase the sustainability of the existing SME management. And understanding of the difference in opportunity evaluation, and suggests that it is necessary to provide good opportunities together with the upbringing of entrepreneurs. In order to achieve the purpose of the study, questionnaires were conducted for college students and entrepreneurs. A total of 363 questionnaire data were obtained and demonstrated through structural equation modeling. This study confirms that there is some relationship between perceived risk and cognitive bias. Overconfidence and control illusions among cognitive bias have a significant relationship between perceived risk and wealth. Especially, it is confirmed that control illusion of college students has a significant relationship with perceived risk. Second, cognitive bias demonstrated some significant relationship with opportunity evaluation. Although we did not find evidence that excess self-confidence is related to opportunity evaluation, we have verified that control illusions and current status bias are related to opportunity evaluation. Control illusions were significant in both college students and entrepreneurs. Third, perceived risk has a negative relationship with opportunity evaluation. All students, regardless of whether they are college students or entrepreneurs, judge opportunities positively if they perceive low risk. Fourth, it can be seen from the college students 'group that entrepreneurial efficacy has a moderating effect between perceived risk and opportunity evaluation, but no significant results were found in the entrepreneurs' group. Fifth, the college students and entrepreneurs have different cognitive bias, and they have proved that there is a different relationship between entrepreneurial opportunity evaluation and perceived risk. On the whole, there are various cognitive biases that are caused by time pressure or stress on college students and entrepreneurs who have to make judgments in uncertain opportunities, and in this respect, they can improve their judgment in the future. At the same time, university students can have a positive view of new opportunities based on high entrepreneurial efficacy, but if they fully understand the intrinsic risks of entrepreneurship through entrepreneurial education and fully understand the cognitive bias present in direct entrepreneurial experience, You will get a better opportunity assessment. This study has limitations in that it is based on the fact that university students and entrepreneurs are integrated, and that the survey respondents are selected by the limited random sampling method. It is necessary to conduct more systematic research based on more faithful data in the absence of the accumulation of entrepreneurial research data. Second, the translation tools used in the previous studies were translated and the meaning of the measurement tools might not be conveyed due to language differences. Therefore, it is necessary to construct a more precise scale for the accuracy of the study. Finally, complementary research should be done to identify what competitive opportunities are and what opportunities are appropriate for entrepreneurs.

• Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.53-67
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• 2015

Metacognitive monitoring refers to high dimensional cognitive activities. Understanding one's own cognitive processes accurately can make effective controls for their performance. Brain area related with metacognition is PFC which is completed the order of late and it can be inferred that monitoring abilities is developing during late adolescent. In this study, we explored the developmental difference in monitoring accuracy between high school students and college students using by measuring JOL(Judgment of Learning). Participants was asked that they study Spanish-Korean word pairs and judge their future performance of memory. In the result, people in both groups thought that they could remember word pairs better than their actual performance. Absolute bias scores which mean the degree to predict their performance apart from true scores showed the interaction between subject groups and task difficulty. Specifically, people judged their learning state quite accurately in easy task condition. However, in difficult task condition, both groups showed inaccuracy for predicting their learning and the magnitude of the degree was bigger in the group of high school students.