• Title/Summary/Keyword: Overall uncertainty

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Uncertainty of Total Alkaloids and Reducing Sugar Determination in Flue-cured Tobacco (황색종 담배중 전알카로이드와 환원당 분석에 대한 불확도 측정)

  • 백순옥;장기철;이운철;한상빈
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Tobacco Science
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2001
  • This study was carried out to evaluate the uncertainty in the analysis of total alkaloids and reducing sugar content in flue-cured tobacco. The sources of uncertainty associated with the analysis of total alkaloids and reducing sugar were the weighing of sample, the preparation of extracting solution, the addition of extracting solution into the sample, the preparation of standard solution, the precision of calibration curve for standard solution, the reproducibility of analysis, and the determination of water content in tobacco, etc. For the calculating uncertainties, Type A of uncertainty was evaluated by the statistical analysis of a series of observation, and Type B by the information based on supplier’s catalogue and/or certificated of calibration. It was shown that the main source of uncertainty was caused by the calibration curve of standard solution, the reproducibility of analysis, the volume measurement of 1$m\ell$, and the purity of nicotine reference material in the preparation of standard solution. The uncertainty in the addition of extracting solution, the sample weighing, the volume measurement of 100$m\ell$, and the determination of water content of tobacco contributed relatively little to the overall uncertainty. The expanded uncertainty of total alkaloids and reducing sugar in flue-cured tobacco at 95% level of confidence was $\pm$0.12% and $\pm$0.54%, respectively.

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The Impact of Global Uncertainty Shocks on Macroeconomics: The Case of Vietnam

  • TRAN, Ha Hong;NGUYEN, Vinh Thi Hong;TRINH, Nam Hoang
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.9
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    • pp.263-269
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    • 2022
  • The global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic that started in 2019 along with the slow and unstable recovery of the global economy have raised concerns about the impact of global uncertainty on the macroeconomics of the countries. The paper used the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to examine the impact of global uncertainty shocks on Vietnam's economy from the period 2008-2022. We found that Vietnam's output dropped following the shock of global uncertainty, the peak was in the third month, and lasted for one year. Inflation in Vietnam had a rapid downturn in the first month, peaked in the seventh month, and took a long time to cease. When the economy experienced the shock of increased global uncertainty, Vietnam's policy interest rate was adjusted downward. Additionally, we included a long-term interest rate to consider the overall impact of monetary policy into account. A decreasing trend was also found with this rate. The global uncertainty shock effects acted as the aggregate demand shocks, reducing output and inflation as the uncertainty increases and vice versa, thus monetary policy can be used to regulate Vietnam's economy to deal with negative shocks without the trade-offs between output and inflation as aggregate supply shocks.

Factors Influencing Internet Consumer's Purchase Delay Behaviors : Focusing on Situational Factors and Perceived Uncertainty (인터넷 소비자의 구매지연행동에 영향을 미치는 요인 : 상황적 요인과 지각된 불확실성을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jong-Ouk;Suh, Sang-Hyuk
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.14 no.7
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    • pp.407-426
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    • 2014
  • This study analyzed the effects of situational factors and perceived uncertainty on purchase delay behaviors of internet consumers. The survey was conducted from internet consumers in the Seoul Metropolitan areas, and 394 responses were used in the data analysis. The results of this study were as follows. First, the negative experience and avoid regrets of the situational factors had a positive impact on overall purchase delay. The time pressure, changeability about purchase, negative experience and avoid regrets had a positive impact on payment stage delay. Also, the time pressure, negative experience and avoid regrets had a positive impact on shopping cart abandonment. Second, all factors of perceived uncertainty had a positive impact on overall purchase delay and payment stage delay. In addition, the information uncertainty and psychological uncertainty had a positive impact on shopping cart abandonment. Therefore, this study is contributing to the diversification of internet study, and it is provide useful information on the customer management and marketing strategy of internet shopping malls.

Noise Evaluation Considering the Uncertainty Variation According to Frequency

  • Lee, Chulwon;Koo, SeungJun;Kong, Young Mo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2014.04a
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    • pp.191-196
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    • 2014
  • In the evaluation of measured noise data, tolerance shall be decided based on the uncertainty. The uncertainty has frequency variations due to the different standard deviations at each frequency. Therefore, tolerance shall be differently decided for each frequency with the same confidence probability. In the report, the evaluation method considering the frequency variation of uncertainty will be introduced. From the approach, considering the actual noise distribution characteristics of the ships, the tolerance shall be decided for each frequency with the same probability, but the overall averaged value shall be kept to the value designated in each notation.

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Uncertainty quantification in decay heat calculation of spent nuclear fuel by STREAM/RAST-K

  • Jang, Jaerim;Kong, Chidong;Ebiwonjumi, Bamidele;Cherezov, Alexey;Jo, Yunki;Lee, Deokjung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.9
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    • pp.2803-2815
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    • 2021
  • This paper addresses the uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of a depleted light-water fuel assembly of the Turkey Point-3 benchmark. The uncertainty of the fuel assembly decay heat and isotopic densities is quantified with respect to three different groups of diverse parameters: nuclear data, assembly design, and reactor core operation. The uncertainty propagation is conducted using a two-step analysis code system comprising the lattice code STREAM, nodal code RAST-K, and spent nuclear fuel module SNF through the random sampling of microscopic cross-sections, fuel rod sizes, number densities, reactor core total power, and temperature distributions. Overall, the statistical analysis of the calculated samples demonstrates that the decay heat uncertainty decreases with the cooling time. The nuclear data and assembly design parameters are proven to be the largest contributors to the decay heat uncertainty, whereas the reactor core power and inlet coolant temperature have a minor effect. The majority of the decay heat uncertainties are delivered by a small number of isotopes such as 241Am, 137Ba, 244Cm, 238Pu, and 90Y.

Testing the Mediating Effect of Appraisal in the Model of Uncertainty in Illness

  • Kang, Younhee
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.33 no.8
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    • pp.1127-1134
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    • 2003
  • Background. Although there have been a great number of research studies based on the model of uncertainty in illness, few studies have considered the appraisal portion of model. Purpose. The purpose of this study was to test the mediating effect of appraisal in the model of uncertainty in illness. Additionally, this study aimed to examine the relationships among uncertainty, symptom severity, appraisal, and anxiety in patients newly diagnosed with atrial fibrillation. Methods. This study employed a descriptive correlational and cross-sectional survey design using a face-to-face interview method. Patients diagnosed with atrial fibrillation within the previous 6 months prior to data collection were interviewed by Mishel Uncertainty in Illness Scale-Community Form, appraisal scale, Symptom Checklist-Severity V.3, and State Anxiety Inventory. Results. A total of 81 patients with atrial fibrillation were recruited from two large urban medical centers in Cleveland, Ohio, U.S.A.. Symptom severity was the significant variable in explaining uncertainty ($\beta$=0.34). Individuals with greater symptom severity perceived more uncertainty. Uncertainty was appraised as a danger rather than opportunity, and those with greater uncertainty appraised a greater danger (p<.0l). While the appraisal of opportunity had the negative relationship with anxiety (r=-0.25), the appraisal of danger was positively associated with anxiety (r=0.78). The measure of goodness of fit (Q) of the model was .7863, and the significant test (X$^2$) for the Q was statistically significant (df =3, p<.00l). Accordingly, the overall mediating model of uncertainty in illness was proven not to be fit to the empirical data of patients with atrial fibrillation. Consequently, the mediating effect of appraisal was not supported by the empirical data of this study. Conclusion. The findings of this study were discussed in terms of their relevance compared with those of previous studies or theoretical framework and the plausible explanations on study findings. Lastly, in order to expand the present body of knowledge on uncertainty in illness model, recommendations for the future nursing studies were included.

Cost-effective Investigation on Contaminated Land and Assessment of Measurement Uncertainty (오염토양의 효율적 조사기법과 측정불확도의 평가방법)

  • 이종천
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.49-59
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    • 2004
  • The concectration and distribution of contaminants obtained from a contaminated land investigation or an environmental geochemistry survey constitutes the basis of a decision-making process on environmental policies or of scientific researches. As the quality of data determines the reliability of the result, the investigation plan should be adjusted according to the purpose of the investigation. In general, the effort to improve the data quality had been focused mainly on the QA/QC procedures in laboratories. The rapid progress of analytical instrument has also contributed toward improving the analytical precision to a sacrificable degree. Nevertheless, in many cases, it is not the analytical precision that needs improvement for the better precision of overall measurement process: it is rather during the sampling process in the field that is responsible for the poor precision. To assess the data quality on a measured value, ISO recommends to provide information on "measurement uncertainty" along with the measured value. The measurement uncertainty in an environmental measurement context can be explained as the statistical number that expresses the degree of the uncertainty stemming from the sampling and analytical procedures. There is a cost involved in order to improve the precision of sampling and analytical methods so as to decrease the degree of measurement uncertainty. The economical point of compromise in an investigation planning can be achieved when the allowable degree of uncertainty has been set before-hand. The investigation can then be planned accordingly not to exceed the uncertainty limit. Furthermore, if the measurement uncertainty estimated from the preliminary investigation can be separated into sampling and analytical uncertainties, it can be used as a criterion where the resources for the investigation should be allotted cost-effectively to reinforce the weakest link of the whole investigation process. This paper aims to present a method of estimating the level of measurement uncertainty of a measured contamination concentration at a site used as an example and to show how the estimated uncertainty can be applied to serve the particular purpose of an investigation.

Research Issues in Robust QFD

  • Kim, Kwang-Jae;Kim, Deok-Hwan
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.93-100
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    • 2008
  • Quality function deployment (QFD) provides a specific approach for ensuring quality throughout each stage of the product development and production process. Since the focus of QFD is placed on the early stage of product development, the uncertainty in the input information of QFD is inevitable. If the uncertainty is neglected, the QFD analysis results are likely to be misleading. It is necessary to equip practitioners with a new QFD methodology that can model, analyze, and dampen the effects of the uncertainty and variability in a systematic manner. Robust QFD is an extended version of QFD methodology, which is robust to the uncertainty of the input information and the resulting variability of the QFD output. This paper discusses recent research issues in Robust QFD. The major issues are related with the determination of overall priority, robustness evaluation, robust prioritization, and web-based Robust QFD optimizer. Our recent research results on the issues are presented, and some of future research topics are suggested.

State--Feedback Guaranteed-Cost Controllers for Systems with Controller Gain Variation

  • Park, Sung-Wook;Oh, Jun-Ho
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.75.3-75
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    • 2001
  • This paper addresses the design of State-feedback Robust Guaranteed-Cost Controllers with controller gain variations. Since the unstructured uncertainty is the most dominant uncertainty in the modeling of the plant, the plant is assumed to have the unstructured uncertainty. It is necessary to take the controller parameter perturbation into consideration when we design the robust controller. Otherwise, the resulting controller may show the fragility property. That is to say, the extremely small controller parameter variation may result in the instability of the overall closed-loop system. Therefore, the design purpose is that the maximum performance index is guaranteed in the presence of the unstructured plant uncertainty and controller parameter variations ...

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EVALUATION OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODELING AND SOURCE DISTRIBUTION FOR PRESSURE VESSEL NEUTRON FLUENCE CALCULATIONS

  • Kim, Yong-Il;Hwang, Hae-Ryong
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.237-241
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    • 2001
  • The uncertainties associated with fluence calculation at the pressure vessel have been evaluated for the Korean Next Generation Reactor, APR1400. To obtain uncertainties, sensitivity analyses were performed for each of the parameters important to calculated fast neutron fluence. Among the important parameters to the overall uncertainties, reactor modeling and core neutron source were examined. Mechanical tolerances, composition and density variations in the reactor materials as well as application of $r-{\theta}$ geometry in rectilinear region contribute to uncertainty in the reactor modeling. Depletion and buildup of fissile nuclides, instrument error related to core power level, uncertainty of fuel pin burnup, and variation of long-term axial peaking factors are main contributors to the core neutron source uncertainty. The sensitivity analyses have shown that the uncertainty in the fluence calculation at the reactor pressure vessel is +12%.

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