• Title/Summary/Keyword: Ordered probit model

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Injury Severity Analysis of Truck-involved Crashes on Korean Freeway Systems using an Ordered Probit Model (순서형 프로빗 모형을 적용한 고속도로 화물차 사고 심각도)

  • Kang, Chanmo;Chung, Younshik;Chang, Yoo Jin
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.391-398
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    • 2019
  • In general, truck-involved crashes increase severity in terms of both injury level and crash impact level. Recently, although the frequency and fatality of truck-involved crashes in Korea are rising, their associative studies are very limited. Therefore, the objective of this study is to identify critical factors influencing on injury severity of truck-involved crashes on Korean freeway system. To carry out this objective, this study uses an ordered probit model (OPM) based on a 6-year crash dataset from 2012 to 2017. From the analysis, eight variables were found to have a great effect on injury severity: older driver, crash speed, rear-end collision, number of vehicles involved, drowsy driving, nighttime (0:00 to 6:00) driving, overturn or rollover, and vehicle's fire after crash. However, injury severity was less severe in crashes under snowy condition and crashes to traffic facilities (i.e., crash alone).

Application of Hedonic Price Model to Korean Antique Art Data (한국 고미술품 가격 데이터를 이용한 헤도닉 모형 분석)

  • Yang, Mun Sil;Lee, Yoo Woo;Song, Jeongseok
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 2016
  • According to the price-decline effect, the art auction prices are known to decrease with the order of auction sale. Our empirical study investigates the presence for the price-decline effect using the data for Korean antique art hosted by the Seoul Auction in September, 2015. We apply the Hedonic price model to the data and examine the relation between the sale order and auction price. Our empirical evidences show that the well-known price decline effect is not present for the case of Korean antique auction in 2015. We confirm our results by estimating the ordered probit model. From the view of the price-decline effect, our results suggest that the Korean antique auction data exhibits different characteristics from most of the foreign art auction data.

An Analysis of the Effects of Water Pollution on Life Satisfaction in Korea (한국의 수질오염이 생활만족도에 미치는 영향에 대한 분석)

  • Kim, Soo Jung;Kang, Sung Jin
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.124-140
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    • 2016
  • Using the Korea Labor Institute Panel Study(KLIPS), this study investigates the impacts of water pollution on life satisfaction in Korea. Panel random-effects ordered probit model is used to consider the ordered property of life satisfaction data and heterogeneity of panel data. The proxy variables to reflect the degree of water pollution are biochemical oxygen demand(BOD) and total phosphorus(TP). In addition to the environmental variables above, other determinants used in various studies on life satisfaction such as economic, social, and demographic characteristics are included. Estimation results show that water pollution is negative and significant for life satisfaction. Other indicators such as income, age, house ownership, gender, education are positively related while urban residence and own business are shown to be negatively related.

A Comparison of Determinants of Housing Satisfaction Between Rural and Urban Areas (농촌 및 도시 주민의 주택 만족도 영향 요인 비교 연구)

  • Hwang, Jeong Im;Choi, Yoon Ji;Park, Jin Woo
    • The Korean Journal of Community Living Science
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.567-579
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    • 2014
  • Housing environments of individuals and families can have considerable influence on their quality of life. This study examines the factors influencing housing satisfaction and compares them between rural and urban areas. A total of 3,958 households collected from a nationwide survey were analyzed using an ordered probit model. The results indicate that housing satisfaction was influenced by individual, housing, and neighborhood attributes. The factors that differentiated between rural and urban models were sex, housing type, and relationships with neighbors. The results have important policy issues for improving rural housing.

A Study on R&D Strategies of Personal Air Vehicle based on Demand Factors (수요요인을 반영한 개인용 항공기 개발전략 연구)

  • Byun, Sangkyu;Kang, Beom-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.15-23
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    • 2021
  • Personal Air Vehicle is expected to be a promising solution to relieve traffic congestion using urban airspace. The development of related technologies such as materials or batteries has been accelerated. In addition, commercial transportation services are being prepared. When fierce competition begins in the PAV market, even technologically superior products will disappear without choices by consumers. Therefore, demand factors should be reflected in PAV development to enhance competitiveness. In the paper, values were estimated for the major technological attributes of PAV. Stated preference data were collected through a survey, and the conjoint method and ordered probit model were adopted. Thereafter, it was confirmed that the value would be high in the order of dual mode, drone-type appearance, and noise reduction. Some R&D strategies were proposed based on this.

Crash Severity Impact of Fixed Roadside Objects using Ordered Probit Model (도로변 수직구조물 충돌사고의 심각도 영향요인에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Joonbeom;Lee, Soobeom;Yun, Dukgeun;Park, Jaehong
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.173-180
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    • 2016
  • OBJECTIVES : Fixed roadside objects are a threat to drivers when their vehicles deviate from the road. Therefore, such roadside objects need to be suitably dealt with to decrease accidents. This study determines the factors affecting the severity of accidents because of fixed roadside objects. METHODS : This study analyzed the crash severity impact of fixed roadside objects by using ordered probit regression as the analysis methodology. In this research, data from 896 traffic accidents reported in the last three years were used. These accidents consisted of sole-car accidents, fixed roadside object accidents, and lane-departure accidents on the national highway of Korea. The accident severity was classified as light injury, severe injury, and death. The factors relating to the road and the driver were collected as independent variables. RESULTS : The result of the analysis showed that the variables of the crash severity impact are the collision location (left side), gender of the driver (female), alcohol use, collision facility (roadside trees, traffic signals, telephone poles), and type of road (rural segments). Additionally, the collision location (left side), gender of the driver (female), alcohol use, collision facility (street trees, traffic signals, telephone poles), and type of road (rural segments), in order of influence, were found to be the factors affecting the crash severity in accidents due to fixed roadside objects. CONCLUSIONS : An alternative solution is urgently required to reduce the crash severity in accidents due to fixed roadside objects. Such a solution can consider the appropriate places to install breakaway devices and energy-absorbing systems.

Prioritizing Freeway Segments for Variable Speed Limit (VSL) Operations based on Traffic Safety (교통안전을 고려한 고속도로 가변제한속도 운영구간 우선순위 결정 연구)

  • Choi, Sae-Ro-Na;Lee, Kee-Yong;Oh, Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.57-70
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    • 2012
  • Variable speed limit(VSL) is a useful speed management tool for alleviating traffic congestion and enhancing traffic safety. The purpose of this study is to identify promising freeway segments for safety enhancement through VSL operations. An ordered probit model was adopted to capture factors affecting freeway crash severity that can be used to support decision making for selecting the promising segments. Pseudo elasticity and marginal effects, which are outcomes of the ordered probit analysis, were used to determine priority of promising segments for traffic safety. The results of this study would be useful in installing VSL systems and developing traffic control and operations strategies in practice.

Analysis on Factors Affecting Traffic Accident Severity - Case Study : Arterial Included Curve Section - (교통사고심각도 영향요인 분석에 관한 연구 - 곡선부가 포함된 국도를 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Jae Hong;Yun, Duk Geun;Sung, Jung Gon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.84-89
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    • 2013
  • The main causes of traffic accidents can be classified by 3 factors - human error, vehicle deficiency and road environmental problem and most accidents occurs not only 1 factor but combination of 2 or 3-factors. Among these factors, road environmental factor is the most important factor due to influence the behavior of cars and road users and road environmental factor affects 30% of total accidents approximately. The 5 years traffic accidents data analyzed to verify the accidents severity on Korea National Highways. In order to analyze the severity, Ordered Probit Model was used. As a independent variables of this model the number of lane, neighbor road environments, sight distance, vertical grade, lane width, shoulder width and traffic volume were used and as a dependent variables the minor injuries, serious injuries and fatalities were used. Research results shows that sight distance and lane width are identified as significant factors for the traffic accident severity and lesser sight distance and lane width shows greater traffic accident severity.

The Study on the Accident Injury Severity Using Ordered Probit Model (순서형 프로빗 모형을 이용한 사고심각도 분석)

  • Ha, Oh-Keun;Oh, Ju-Taek;Won, Jai-Mu;Sung, Nak-Moon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.4 s.82
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    • pp.47-55
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    • 2005
  • In recent years, the rapid growth of vehicles have increased traffic crashes. Since they can cause the economic losses and have put the life qualify in danger, there should be numerous efforts to reduce traffic crashes. To reduce traffic crashes, this research seeks to improve the safety of intersections by analysing causations of injury severity with Ordered Probability Model. This research applied the Ordered Probit Model, which assumes that ${\epsilon}_i$(random error) is normally distributed, for model calibration and used $p^2$ (likelihood ratio) and $x^2$ (Chi-square) for model selection. The results show that minor road traffic, heavy vehicle rates, major and minor right-turn rates, presence of lightings, speed limits, instructive line for left-turn traffic are significant factors affecting crash severities at signalized intersections.