• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.19-30
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• 2013

Recently, the constrained index tracking problem, in which the task of trading a set of stocks is performed so as to closely follow an index value under some constraints, has often been considered as an important application domain for control theory. Because this problem can be conveniently viewed and formulated as an optimal decision-making problem in a highly uncertain and stochastic environment, approaches based on stochastic optimal control methods are particularly pertinent. Since stochastic optimal control problems cannot be solved exactly except in very simple cases, approximations are required in most practical problems to obtain good suboptimal policies. In this paper, we present a procedure for finding a suboptimal solution to the constrained index tracking problem based on approximate dynamic programming. Illustrative simulation results show that this procedure works well when applied to a set of real financial market data.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.59-71
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• 2014

KOSPI200 선물 트레이딩을 위해 업계에서는 여러 전략으로 포트폴리오를 구성해서 운용한다. 동일한 전략 모음을 갖고 있더라도 포트폴리오를 어떻게 구성하느냐에 따라 수익은 크게 차이가 난다. 시장 상황에 맞는 전략들로 포트폴리오를 구성하는 것은 오랜 경험과 탁월한 노하우가 있어야하는 어려운 작업이다. 본 논문에서는 SVM을 활용하여 쉽고 빠르게 적절한 전략 포트폴리오를 구성하는 방법을 제시하였다. 본 논문에서 제안한 시스템의 성과는 벤치마킹의 성과와 비교하여 2배 이상의 수익을 내는 것을 확인하였다. 1990.01.03~2011.11.04 동안의 KOSPI200 데이터 중 이전 80%의 데이터로 학습을 하고 최근 20%의 데이터로 성능을 시험하였다. 각 전략별로 선택여부를 판별하는 SVM모델을 만들고 그 결과를 바탕으로 포트폴리오를 구성하였다. 벤치마킹을 위해 KOSPI200 선물을 2계약 매수한 경우의 수익, 시험 시작 직전 30일간 최고 수익을 낸 2개 전략의 수익, 실제 최고 수익을 낸 전략 2개를 보유했을 때의 수익과 비교하였다. 매매 비용을 반영하지 않을 때는 벤치마킹은 132.2~510.37pt의 수익을 냈고, 본 시스템은 1072.36~1140.91pt의 수익을 보여주었다. 그리고 거래비용을 감안하면 벤치마킹은 130.44~502.41pt의 수익을 냈고, 본 시스템은 706.22pt~768.95pt의 수익을 나타내었다. 본 논문은 기계학습을 통한 전략 포트폴리오를 구성하는 방안이 유의미하며 실전에 활용할 수 있음을 보여주었다. 이를 바탕으로 여러 전략과 다양한 시장에 적용해서 안정성을 검증하면 견고한 상용 솔루션으로 발전시킬 수 있을 것이다. 그리고 자금관리 기법을 더 반영한다면 수익을 더욱 크게 향상시킬 수 있을 것이다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권9호
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• pp.135-145
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• 2020

This paper provides the practical application of a linear shrinkage framework on Vietnam stock market. The cumulative data points observed in this analysis are 468 weeks from January 2011 to December 2019. All the companies listed on Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE), except the companies under two years period from Initial Public Offering (IPO), are considered. The cumulative number of stocks picked is therefore 350 companies. The VNINDEX, which is the Vietnam Stock Index, is used as a reference index for shrinking to a single-index model. The empirical results show that the shrinkage of covariance matrix for portfolio optimization gives the promising results for the investors on Vietnam stock market. The shrinkage method helps the investors to produce the optimal portfolio in the sense of having higher profit with lower levels of risk compared to the portfolio of the traditional SCM method. Moreover, the portfolio turnover of shrinkage method is always kept at low magnitudes, and this makes the shrinkage portfolios save much transaction costs and reduce the liquidity risks in the trading process. In addition, the ability of shrinkage method in making profit is once again confirmed by the Alpha coefficient that achieves a high positive value.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제37권3호
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• pp.135-150
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• 2012

This paper presents a portfolio model for a long-term power generation mix problem. The proposed portfolio model evaluates generation mix by considering the tradeoffs between the expected cost for power generation and its variability. Unlike conventional portfolio models measuring variance, we introduce Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) in designing the variability with aims to considering events that are enormously expensive but are rare such as nuclear power plant accidents. Further, we consider uncertainties associated with future electricity demand, fuel prices and their correlations, and capital costs for power plant investments. To obtain an objective generation by each energy source, we employ the sample average approximation method that approximates the stochastic objective function by taking the average of large sample values so that provides asymptotic convergence of optimal solutions. In addition, the method includes Monte Carlo simulation techniques in generating random samples from multivariate distributions. Applications of the proposed model and method are demonstrated through a case study of an electricity industry with nuclear, coal, oil (OCGT), and LNG (CCGT) in South Korea.

• Agribusiness and Information Management
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.10-26
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• 2019

This study is exploratory research on a relationship between changes in cultivated area of major crops and farm income by regions. We investigated level of income, volatility of income, and migration of suitable region by climate changes as factors influencing changes in cultivated area. Research processes are as follows. First, we classify the regions where cultivated areas are expanded or reduced through the trends of cultivated area by region and crop during recent 10 years. Second, we compare the changes in income related factors between groups during the same periods. Finally, the results from portfolio analysis show changes in stable income-based optimal crops. From these procedures, we found that the changes in cultivated area are not simply explained by income-related factors. In cases of vegetables, however, we also found that high volatility of income could contribute to reduce cultivated area of the crops. The results from portfolio analysis are not always consistent in all of cases. This means that crop selection can be decided by other factors than stable income.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제46권3호
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• pp.362-371
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• 2009

Shipbuilding is a typical 'build to order' industry. It has a business model that generates revenues from building various ships and offshore products in accordance with owner's requirements at each production stage. Under uncertainty in shipping market, it is very essential for the shipbuilder to prepare the fast and competitive decision for product portfolio strategy in order to maximize contribution margin by exploiting production facilities and constraints. In this study, we introduce the unique decision supporting methodology for the optimal product portfolio sets based on Theory of Constraints(TOC). This methodology is established by adopting the concept of Drum Buffer Rope(DBR) in constraints planning and Throughput Accounting (TA) in management accounting of TOC. In addition, Decision Supporting System(DSS) is implemented. This DSS system provides a throughput estimator with reflecting the cost structure of shipbuilding industry and a resource simulator built on heuristic algorithms to operate major constraint-resources in shipyard such as dock, quay and pre-erection area etc. Several examples are presented to show that the proposed methodology and system can effectively support the strategic decision-making process of a global shipbuilding company.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제65권7호
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• pp.1135-1143
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• 2016

A private company's 1,000 MW coal-fired power plant will be the first coal-fired power plant that was included in the 5th 'Basic Plan on Electricity Demand and Supply' (2010). Now it is facing the task to abide by the RPS(Renewable Portfolio Standard) policy after commercial operation. If they fail to supply the necessary REC (Renewable Energy Certificate) mandated by the RPS policy, they are subject to be fined by the government and forced to modify the cost function to reflect the burden. Eventually the company's coal-fired power plant will be forced to reduce generation to maximize profit because the amount of electricity generated by the power plant and the REC obligation is positively correlated. This paper analyzed the change of cost function of private coal-fired power plant according to the introduction of RPS policy from the viewpoint of private company, and finally proposed the optimal generation to maximize the profit of private coal-fired power plant under the current RPS policy.

• 충청수학회지
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.169-180
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• 2021

This paper investigates the time-inconsistent agent's optimal consumption and investment problem under inflation risk. The agents' discount factor is governed by hyperbolic discounting, which has a random time to change. We impose the inflation risk which plays a crucial role in long-term financial planning. We derive the semi-analytic solution to the problem of sophisticated agents when the time horizon is finite.

• East Asian mathematical journal
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• 제34권3호
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• pp.331-338
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• 2018

We investigate the optimal consumption and portfolio strategies of an agent who has a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) utility function under the negative wealth constraint. We use the martingale method to derive the closed-form solution, and we give some numerical implications.

• 충청수학회지
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.65-73
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• 2018

We investigate the optimal consumption and investment problem of working agent who faces tax system on consumption, labor income, savings and investment. By applying martingale method, we obtain the closed-form solutions so it is possible to verify the effect of tax system analytically.