• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.239-251
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• 2005

This paper investigates the effectiveness of economic policy on the stock market in Korea around foreign currency crisis and stock market opening. For this purpose, the paper applied SUR technique to a set of monthly data over the period 1982.01 to 2004.12. The study finds the following results. First, for the entire sample period, Korean stock market appears to have effectively incorporated all of the past information about fiscal policy moves. However, the paper finds an evidence that some of the past monetary actions have significant impacts upon current stock returns implying that the information about past monetary moves has been overlooked. Second, there is an evidence to suggest that, after foreign currency crisis, the macro economic policy actions may influence stock market in a different way. In particular, after foreign currency crisis, monetary policy influences stock market in a more delayed pattern while past fiscal policy moves are well incorporated into current stock returns. Third, before stock market opening to foreign investors, some of the past economic policy actions have significant effects on current stock returns. On the contrary, after stock market opening, none of the past macro economic information has significant impact upon current stock returns. The results imply that stock market opening may contribute to the active utilization of economic information for market participants in Korea.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.9
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• pp.1-8
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• 2022

This paper studies market efficiency from a weak form aspect using opening and closing prices of the Shanghai stock exchange composite index (SSEC) and Shenzhen stock exchange composite index (SZSEC) under the expected return theory. Classical methods (autocorrelation and runs test) are used to examine the features of stock returns, and little evidence against mutual independence of returns is found. We predict daily returns of SSEC and SZSEC with AR(p) and VAR(p) models (in this paper, p = 5 is taken as a one-week lag) and perform a virtual experiment on two indexes based on the predicted value of daily returns from AR(p) or VAR(p) model. From the results of AR(p) and VAR(p) for two indexes, we attempt to find out how the market efficiency level changes when the information from the other market is under consideration as we check the market efficiency level in one market. We find that SSEC in 2014-2016 and SZSEC in 2015-2016 are inefficient from the result of autocorrelation, that SSEC in 2016 and SZSEC in 2013 are not efficient from the result of runs test, that the stock market is efficient except 2005, 2009, 2010 and 2017 in SSEC and 2005, 2016 and 2017 in SZSEC and that SSEC is more influenced by SZSEC but SSEC influences SZSEC less from the result of the virtual experiment.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.711-719
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• 2024

This study examined the policy of opening up the Chinese A-share market and its performance in four aspects: institutional investors system, cross-trading system with overseas stock markets, inclusion of A-shares into global indices, and establishment of a new board. Then, the impact of these policies on the Stock Index was empirically analyzed, and it was confirmed that institutional investors system such as QFII and RQFII, cross-trading system with overseas stock markets such as Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, inclusion of A-shares into global indices such as the MSCI EM index and FTSE Russell index, and the establishment of a new board of the Science Innovation Board all had statistically significant positive impacts on the stock index. Based on the results of these analysis, we conclude that China should further expand its stock market opening to the outside world, that mutual efforts are needed to alleviate political conflicts and improve understanding, and that easing industry regulations, including real estate, will help China's economic recovery and foreigners' investment in the A-share market.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.143-156
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• 2012

People easily believe that news and stock index are closely related. They think that securing news before anyone else can help them forecast the stock prices and enjoy great profit, or perhaps capture the investment opportunity. However, it is no easy feat to determine to what extent the two are related, come up with the investment decision based on news, or find out such investment information is valid. If the significance of news and its impact on the stock market are analyzed, it will be possible to extract the information that can assist the investment decisions. The reality however is that the world is inundated with a massive wave of news in real time. And news is not patterned text. This study suggests the stock-index invest model based on "News Big Data" opinion mining that systematically collects, categorizes and analyzes the news and creates investment information. To verify the validity of the model, the relationship between the result of news opinion mining and stock-index was empirically analyzed by using statistics. Steps in the mining that converts news into information for investment decision making, are as follows. First, it is indexing information of news after getting a supply of news from news provider that collects news on real-time basis. Not only contents of news but also various information such as media, time, and news type and so on are collected and classified, and then are reworked as variable from which investment decision making can be inferred. Next step is to derive word that can judge polarity by separating text of news contents into morpheme, and to tag positive/negative polarity of each word by comparing this with sentimental dictionary. Third, positive/negative polarity of news is judged by using indexed classification information and scoring rule, and then final investment decision making information is derived according to daily scoring criteria. For this study, KOSPI index and its fluctuation range has been collected for 63 days that stock market was open during 3 months from July 2011 to September in Korea Exchange, and news data was collected by parsing 766 articles of economic news media M company on web page among article carried on stock information>news>main news of portal site Naver.com. In change of the price index of stocks during 3 months, it rose on 33 days and fell on 30 days, and news contents included 197 news articles before opening of stock market, 385 news articles during the session, 184 news articles after closing of market. Results of mining of collected news contents and of comparison with stock price showed that positive/negative opinion of news contents had significant relation with stock price, and change of the price index of stocks could be better explained in case of applying news opinion by deriving in positive/negative ratio instead of judging between simplified positive and negative opinion. And in order to check whether news had an effect on fluctuation of stock price, or at least went ahead of fluctuation of stock price, in the results that change of stock price was compared only with news happening before opening of stock market, it was verified to be statistically significant as well. In addition, because news contained various type and information such as social, economic, and overseas news, and corporate earnings, the present condition of type of industry, market outlook, the present condition of market and so on, it was expected that influence on stock market or significance of the relation would be different according to the type of news, and therefore each type of news was compared with fluctuation of stock price, and the results showed that market condition, outlook, and overseas news was the most useful to explain fluctuation of news. On the contrary, news about individual company was not statistically significant, but opinion mining value showed tendency opposite to stock price, and the reason can be thought to be the appearance of promotional and planned news for preventing stock price from falling. Finally, multiple regression analysis and logistic regression analysis was carried out in order to derive function of investment decision making on the basis of relation between positive/negative opinion of news and stock price, and the results showed that regression equation using variable of market conditions, outlook, and overseas news before opening of stock market was statistically significant, and classification accuracy of logistic regression accuracy results was shown to be 70.0% in rise of stock price, 78.8% in fall of stock price, and 74.6% on average. This study first analyzed relation between news and stock price through analyzing and quantifying sensitivity of atypical news contents by using opinion mining among big data analysis techniques, and furthermore, proposed and verified smart investment decision making model that could systematically carry out opinion mining and derive and support investment information. This shows that news can be used as variable to predict the price index of stocks for investment, and it is expected the model can be used as real investment support system if it is implemented as system and verified in the future.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.221-263
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• 2009

This paper studies the behaviour of stock prices on the ex-dividend day in the Korean stock market. Since a majority of listed Korean firms are December firms whose fiscal year end in December and whose ex-dividend day falls on the same calendar day in the year, we use stock prices of Non-December firms to estimate the general stock price movements not related to cash dividends. We estimate excess returns on days around the ex-dividend day. Our major findings are (a) there is no tax clientele effect in Korea, (b) the opening price stock prices fell by the amount of the current cash dividend per share until 2001, but it does not fall as much as the current dividend per share since 2001. Furthermore, in contrast to the U.S. and the Japanese findings, (c) stocks earned negative excess returns on the ex-dividend day until 2001, after which all stocks are earning positive excess returns on the ex-dividend day, and (d) the closing stock price on the ex-dividend day that used to be even higher than the cum-dividend price until 2001 is lower than the opening stock price since 2001. The evidence suggests a structural break has happened around the year 2001.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.823-834
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• 2010

Stock markets perpetually accumulate information. During trading hours the price instantaneously reacts to new information, but accumulated overnight information reacts simultaneously on the opening price. This can create opening price uctuations. This study explores the overnight information e ects on intra-da stock market volatility. GARCH models and the VKOSPI model are provided. Empirical data includes daily opening and closing prices of the KOSPI 200 index and the VKOSPI from March $3^{rd}$ 2008 to June $22^{th}$ 2010. Empirical results show that the VKOSPI signi cantly decrease during trading time when positiv overnight information moves the Korean stock upward. This study provides useful information to investors since the Korea Exchange plans to introduce a futures market for the VKOSPI soon.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.3 no.4
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• pp.139-144
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• 1998

Introduced into korea to diversify risk coming from the fluctuation of stock price with opening of the domestic capital market to foreigners, Suppress the turbulence of the dentistic securities market caused by the short term funds from foreign countries and vitalize investment in stock, the hedging transaction of stock index futures will promote the introduction of financial futures and commodity futures transaction. and it will contribute to enhancing the introduction all over the country and accelerating the advancement of the korea banking market. In addition, it is expected to make a great contribution to economic stability and smooth comic activity through its function of risk diversification and price decrement with the launch of the stock index futures.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.243-254
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• 2020

Purpose - This paper explores whether overnight returns measured from the last closing price to today's opening price explain the cross-section of stock returns. Design/methodology/approach - This study is conducted using the Korean stock market data from 1998 to 2018, obtained from DataGuide database. The analysis begins with portfolio-level tests, followed by firm-level cross-sectional regressions. Findings - First, when decile portfolios sorted on the daily average of overnight returns in the previous months, the highest decile portfolio exhibits a significant negative risk-adjusted return. This suggests that stocks with higher average overnight returns are temporarily overvalued due to buying pressure from investors. Second, at least 6 months of persistence exists in average overnight returns, which is in line with the results reported by Barber, Odean and Zhu (2009) that investor sentiment persists over several weeks. Finally, Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression of expected returns after controlling for a variety of firm characteristic variables such as firm size, book-to-market ratio, market beta, momentum, liquidity, short-term reversal, the slope coefficient for overnight returns remains negative and statistically significant. Research implications or Originality - Overall, the evidence consistently suggests that overnight return is considered as a new priced factor in the cross-section of expected returns. The findings of this paper not only adds to finance literature, but also could be useful to practitioners in making stock investment decision.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.13 no.8
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• pp.153-160
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• 2015

The domestic stock market has been subjected to a major change since the September 1997 financial crisis. Foreign capital came repeat themselves in the stock market and bond market, foreign exchange market opening up domestic financial markets after the financial crisis. The domestic stock market has been most affected by domestic capital before the financial crisis. But it has been receiving an absolute influenced by foreign capital after the financial crisis. The purpose of this study is to analyze the trends in the two sections that look at any changes in the volatility of the KOSPI appears after the crisis. To this, obtained a daily weekly monthly normal distribution and kurtosis, skewness degree it should be analyze the tilt phenomenon and variability of the two intervals. This study also predict the future movement of the domestic stock market Based on this, look at the difference between the two sections. Analysis result, after the financial crisis change width has a reduction but direction of the KOSPI has appeared relatively distinct in the medium to long term. Based on this future market seems desirable the mid- to long-term investment looking for direction.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.41-72
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• 2003

The purposes of this paper are to build theoretical and empirically testable model to identify determining factors of ownership structure, and to analyze this model empirically using th Korea Stock Exchange panel data, and to test the impact of opening the stock market on the determinants of ownership structure. The determining factors of ownership structure identified in this paper include debt ratio, dividend, asset characteristics, profitability, growth business risk, size, institutional investors and chaebol-non chaebol dummy variable. Empirical panel estimation test reveals that this model can explain about $9\sim11%$ of the cross sectional variance in the equity ratio of large shareholders. The reasons that this model has too explanatory power are that some variables were measured with errors, and that there were some omitted variables in tested model. The regression results on the model variables ar generally in line with predictions. But the coefficient estimates on size is never significant. And it appears that the exogenous variable which explains opening the stock market has positive effect on the determinants of ownership structure.