The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology (문화기술의 융합)

The International Promotion Agency of Culture Technology (국제문화기술진흥원)
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Impact of the Opening Policy of China's A-Share Market on the Stock Market

중국 A주 시장의 대외개방이 주가에 미친 영향

  • 김부용 (인천대학교 동북아국제통상물류학부) ;
  • 신선희 (경제추격연구소)
  • Received : 2024.05.13
  • Accepted : 2024.06.15
  • Published : 2024.07.31
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Abstract

This study examined the policy of opening up the Chinese A-share market and its performance in four aspects: institutional investors system, cross-trading system with overseas stock markets, inclusion of A-shares into global indices, and establishment of a new board. Then, the impact of these policies on the Stock Index was empirically analyzed, and it was confirmed that institutional investors system such as QFII and RQFII, cross-trading system with overseas stock markets such as Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, inclusion of A-shares into global indices such as the MSCI EM index and FTSE Russell index, and the establishment of a new board of the Science Innovation Board all had statistically significant positive impacts on the stock index. Based on the results of these analysis, we conclude that China should further expand its stock market opening to the outside world, that mutual efforts are needed to alleviate political conflicts and improve understanding, and that easing industry regulations, including real estate, will help China's economic recovery and foreigners' investment in the A-share market.

본 연구는 기관투자자 제도, 해외 증시와의 교차거래 제도, A주의 글로벌 지수 편입, 신규 보드 개설 등의 네 가지 측면에서 중국 A주 시장의 대외개방 정책 및 그 성과에 대해 살펴보았으며, 아울러 이러한 A주 시장의 대외개방 정책이 상하이종합주가지수와 선전종합주가지수에 미치는 영향에 대해 1994년 1월 3일부터 2024년 5월 30일까지의 시계열 자료를 이용하여 실증적으로 분석하였다. 분석 결과 QFII·RQFII와 같은 기관투자자 제도, 후강퉁·선강퉁과 같은 해외 증시와의 교차거래 제도, A주의 MSCI EM 지수나 FTSE Russell 지수와 같은 글로벌 지수에의 편입, 과학혁신보드와 같은 신규 보드 개설 등의 모든 대외개방 정책이 주가지수에 통계적으로 유의미한 양의 영향을 미침이 확인되었다. 이러한 분석 결과를 토대로 우리는 중국이 향후 주식시장 대외개방을 더욱 확대해야 하고, 특히 개인투자자들의 중국 주식시장에 대한 접근성을 더욱 확대해야 하며, 외국과 정치적 갈등을 완화하고 이해를 증진시키기 위한 상호 노력이 필요하며, 부동산을 비롯한 산업규제 완화가 중국의 경기회복과 외국인의 A주 시장 투자에 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 것이라는 결론을 도출하였다.

Keywords

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