• Title/Summary/Keyword: Observation-error model

Search Result 254, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Estimation and assessment of natural drought index using principal component analysis (주성분 분석을 활용한 자연가뭄지수 산정 및 평가)

  • Kim, Seon-Ho;Lee, Moon-Hwan;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.49 no.6
    • /
    • pp.565-577
    • /
    • 2016
  • The objective of this study is to propose a method for computing the Natural Drought Index (NDI) that does not consider man-made drought facilities. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to estimate the NDI. Three monthly moving cumulative runoff, soil moisture and precipitation were selected as input data of the NDI during 1977~2012. Observed precipitation data was collected from KMA ASOS (Korea Meteorological Association Automatic Synoptic Observation System), while model-driven runoff and soil moisture from Variable Infiltration Capacity Model (VIC Model) were used. Time series analysis, drought characteristic analysis and spatial analysis were used to assess the utilization of NDI and compare with existing SPI, SRI and SSI. The NDI precisely reflected onset and termination of past drought events with mean absolute error of 0.85 in time series analysis. It explained well duration and inter-arrival time with 1.3 and 1.0 respectively in drought characteristic analysis. Also, the NDI reflected regional drought condition well in spatial analysis. The accuracy rank of drought onset, termination, duration and inter-arrival time was calculated by using NDI, SPI, SRI and SSI. The result showed that NDI is more precise than the others. The NDI overcomes the limitation of univariate drought indices and can be useful for drought analysis as representative measure of different types of drought such as meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts.

Positioning Accuracy Analysis of KOMPSAT-3 Satellite Imagery by RPC Adjustment (RPC 조정에 의한 KOMPSAT-3 위성영상의 위치결정 정확도 분석)

  • Lee, Hyoseong;Seo, Doochun;Ahn, Kiweon;Jeong, Dongjang
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
    • /
    • v.31 no.6_1
    • /
    • pp.503-509
    • /
    • 2013
  • The KOMPSAT-3 (Korea Multi-Purpose Satellite-3), was launched on May 18, 2012, is an optical high-resolution observation mission of the Korea Aerospace Research Institute and provides RPC(Rational Polynomial Coefficient) for ground coordinate determination. It is however need to adjust because RPC absorbs effects of interior-exterior orientation errors. In this study, to obtain the suitable adjustment parameters of the vendor-provided RPC of the KOMPSAT-3 images, six types of adjustment models were implemented. As results, the errors of two and six adjustment parameters differed approximately 0.1m. We thus propose the two parameters model, the number of control points are required the least, to adjust the KOMPSAT-3 R PC. According to the increasing the number of control points, RPC adjustment was performed. The proposed model with a control point particularly did not exceed a maximum error 3m. As demonstrated in this paper, the two parameters model can be applied in RPC adjustment of KOMPSAT-3 stereo image.

A Prediction Method of Learning Outcomes based on Regression Model for Effective Peer Review Learning (효율적인 피어리뷰 학습을 위한 회귀 모델 기반 학습성과 예측 방법)

  • Shin, Hyo-Joung;Jung, Hye-Wuk;Cho, Kwang-Su;Lee, Jee-Hyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
    • /
    • v.22 no.5
    • /
    • pp.624-630
    • /
    • 2012
  • The peer review learning is a method which improves learning outcome of students through feedback between students and the observation and analysis of other students. One of the important problems in a peer review system is to find proper evaluators to each learner considering characteristics of students for improving learning outcomes. Some of peer review systems randomly assign peer review evaluators to learners, or chose evaluators based on limited strategies. However, these systems have a problem that they do not consider various characteristics of learners and evaluators who participate in peer reviews. In this paper, we propose a novel prediction approach of learning outcomes to apply peer review systems considering various characteristics of learners and evaluators. The proposed approach extracts representative attributes from the profiles of students and predicts learning outcomes using various regression models. In order to verify how much outliers affect on the prediction of learning outcomes, we also apply several outlier removal methods to the regression models and compare the predictive performance of learning outcomes. The experiment result says that the SVR model which does not removes outliers shows an error rate of 0.47% on average and has the best predictive performance.

Simulation of Circulation and Water Qualities on a Partly Opened Estuarine Lake Through Sluice Gate (배수갑문을 통해 부분 개방된 하구호에서의 순환과 수질모의)

  • 서승원;김정훈;유시흥
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
    • /
    • v.14 no.2
    • /
    • pp.136-150
    • /
    • 2002
  • To improve the water quality of the recently constructed Siwhaho, sluice gates were operated to allow free exchange of water with the sea. This estuarine lake connected to the outer sea through narrow gates is affected mainly by flushing by gate operation and river flows and wind forcing sometimes. As a predicting tool far the water qualities, a three-dimensional finite volume model CE-QUAL-ICM is incorporated into a finite element hydrodynamic model, TIDE3D. In coupling these two different modules, a new error minimization technique is applied by considering conservation of mass. Model tests for one year after calibration and validation using field observation show that eutrophication and other biological changes reach quasi-steady state after initial 60 days of simulation, thus it would be necessary to consider moderate ramp up option to remove initial uncertainties due to cold start option. Sediment-water interaction might not be a concern in the long-term simulation, since its effect is negligible. Simulated results show the newly applied scheme can be applied with satisfaction not only fur lessening of eutrophic processes in an estuarine lake but also looking for some active circulation to improve water quality.

Comparison of the Weather Station Networks Used for the Estimation of the Cultivar Parameters of the CERES-Rice Model in Korea (CERES-Rice 모형의 품종 모수 추정을 위한 국내 기상관측망 비교)

  • Hyun, Shinwoo;Kim, Tae Kyung;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.23 no.2
    • /
    • pp.122-133
    • /
    • 2021
  • Cultivar parameter calibration can be affected by the reliability of the input data to a crop growth model. In South Korea, two sets of weather stations, which are included in the automated synoptic observing system (ASOS) or the automatic weather system (AWS), are available for preparation of the weather input data. The objectives of this study were to estimate the cultivar parameter using those sets of weather data and to compare the uncertainty of these parameters. The cultivar parameters of CERES-Rice model for Shindongjin cultivar was calibrated using the weather data measured at the weather stations included in either ASO S or AWS. The observation data of crop growth and management at the experiment farms were retrieved from the report of new cultivar development and research published by Rural Development Administration. The weather stations were chosen to be the nearest neighbor to the experiment farms where crop data were collected. The Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method was used to calibrate the cultivar parameters for 100 times, which resulted in the distribution of parameter values. O n average, the errors of the heading date decreased by one day when the weather input data were obtained from the weather stations included in AWS compared with ASO S. In particular, reduction of the estimation error was observed even when the distance between the experiment farm and the ASOS stations was about 15 km. These results suggest that the use of the AWS stations would improve the reliability and applicability of the crop growth models for decision support as well as parameter calibration.

Evaluation of hydrological applicability for rainfall estimation algorithms of dual-polarization radar (이중편파 레이더의 강우 추정 알고리즘별 수문학적 적용성 평가)

  • Lee, Myungjin;Lee, Choongke;Yoo, Younghoon;Kwak, Jaewon;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.54 no.1
    • /
    • pp.27-38
    • /
    • 2021
  • Recently, many studies have been conducted to use the radar rainfall in hydrology. However, in the case of weather radar, the beam is blocked due to the limitation of the observation such as mountain effect, which causes underestimation of the radar rainfall. In this study, the radar rainfall was estimated using the Hybrid Sacn Reflectivity (HSR) technique for hydrological use of weather radar and the runoff analysis was performed using the GRM model which is a distributed rainfall-runoff model. As a result of performing the radar rainfall correction and runoff simulation for 5 rainfall events, the accuracy of the dual-polarization radar rainfall using the HSR technique (Q_H_KDP) was the highest with an error within 15% of the ground rainfall. In addition, the result of runoff simulation using Q_H_KDP also showed an accuracy of R2 of 0.9 or more, NRMSE of 1.5 or less and NSE of 0.5 or more. From this study, we examined the application of the dual-polarization radar and this results can be useful for studies related to the hydrological application of dual-polarization radar rainfall in the future.

High-Resolution Numerical Simulations with WRF/Noah-MP in Cheongmicheon Farmland in Korea During the 2014 Special Observation Period (2014년 특별관측 기간 동안 청미천 농경지에서의 WRF/Noah-MP 고해상도 수치모의)

  • Song, Jiae;Lee, Seung-Jae;Kang, Minseok;Moon, Minkyu;Lee, Jung-Hoon;Kim, Joon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.384-398
    • /
    • 2015
  • In this paper, the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting/Noah-MultiParameterization (WRF/Noah-MP) modeling system is configured for the Cheongmicheon Farmland site in Korea (CFK), and its performance in land and atmospheric simulation is evaluated using the observed data at CFK during the 2014 special observation period (21 August-10 September). In order to explore the usefulness of turning on Noah-MP dynamic vegetation in midterm simulations of surface and atmospheric variables, two numerical experiments are conducted without dynamic vegetation and with dynamic vegetation (referred to as CTL and DVG experiments, respectively). The main results are as following. 1) CTL showed a tendency of overestimating daytime net shortwave radiation, thereby surface heat fluxes and Bowen ratio. The CTL experiment showed reasonable magnitudes and timing of air temperature at 2 m and 10 m; especially the small error in simulating minimum air temperature showed high potential for predicting frost and leaf wetness duration. The CTL experiment overestimated 10-m wind and precipitation, but the beginning and ending time of precipitation were well captured. 2) When the dynamic vegetation was turned on, the WRF/Noah-MP system showed more realistic values of leaf area index (LAI), net shortwave radiation, surface heat fluxes, Bowen ratio, air temperature, wind and precipitation. The DVG experiment, where LAI is a prognostic variable, produced larger LAI than CTL, and the larger LAI showed better agreement with the observed. The simulated Bowen ratio got closer to the observed ratio, indicating reasonable surface energy partition. The DVG experiment showed patterns similar to CTL, with differences for maximum air temperature. Both experiments showed faster rising of 10-m air temperature during the morning growth hours, presumably due to the rapid growth of daytime mixed layers in the Yonsei University (YSU) boundary layer scheme. The DVG experiment decreased errors in simulating 10-m wind and precipitation. 3) As horizontal resolution increases, the models did not show practical improvement in simulation performance for surface fluxes, air temperature, wind and precipitation, and required three-dimensional observation for more agricultural land spots as well as consistency in model topography and land cover data.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.25 no.3
    • /
    • pp.239-251
    • /
    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

Case study on flood water level prediction accuracy of LSTM model according to condition of reference hydrological station combination (참조 수문관측소 구성 조건에 따른 LSTM 모형 홍수위예측 정확도 검토 사례 연구)

  • Lee, Seungho;Kim, Sooyoung;Jung, Jaewon;Yoon, Kwang Seok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.56 no.12
    • /
    • pp.981-992
    • /
    • 2023
  • Due to recent global climate change, the scale of flood damage is increasing as rainfall is concentrated and its intensity increases. Rain on a scale that has not been observed in the past may fall, and long-term rainy seasons that have not been recorded may occur. These damages are also concentrated in ASEAN countries, and many people in ASEAN countries are affected, along with frequent occurrences of flooding due to typhoons and torrential rains. In particular, the Bandung region which is located in the Upper Chitarum River basin in Indonesia has topographical characteristics in the form of a basin, making it very vulnerable to flooding. Accordingly, through the Official Development Assistance (ODA), a flood forecasting and warning system was established for the Upper Citarium River basin in 2017 and is currently in operation. Nevertheless, the Upper Citarium River basin is still exposed to the risk of human and property damage in the event of a flood, so efforts to reduce damage through fast and accurate flood forecasting are continuously needed. Therefore, in this study an artificial intelligence-based river flood water level forecasting model for Dayeu Kolot as a target station was developed by using 10-minute hydrological data from 4 rainfall stations and 1 water level station. Using 10-minute hydrological observation data from 6 stations from January 2017 to January 2021, learning, verification, and testing were performed for lead time such as 0.5, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 hour and LSTM was applied as an artificial intelligence algorithm. As a result of the study, good results were shown in model fit and error for all lead times, and as a result of reviewing the prediction accuracy according to the learning dataset conditions, it is expected to be used to build an efficient artificial intelligence-based model as it secures prediction accuracy similar to that of using all observation stations even when there are few reference stations.

Evaluation of Network-RTK Survey Accuracy for Applying to Ground Control Points Survey (지상기준점측량 적용을 위한 Network-RTK 측량 정확도 평가)

  • Kim, Kwang Bae;Lee, Chang Kyung;An, Seong
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.127-133
    • /
    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of Network-RTK(VRS) survey for applying to Ground Control Points(GCPs) survey required for mapping aerial photographs. Network-RTK has been serviced by National Geographic Information Institute since 2007. On the basis of the global coordinates system(ITRF2000), the coordinates of GCPs determined by Static GNSS survey with relative positioning techniques were regarded as accurate values. The coordinates of GCPs were also determined by Network-RTK survey using two kinds of receivers, and then they were converted into the global coordinates system(ITRF2000) by applying suitable geoid model and coordinate transformation. These coordinates of GCPs were compared with those from Static GNSS survey. The root mean squares error (RMSE) of coordinate differences between Network-RTK and Static GNSS was ${\pm}2.0cm$ in plane and ${\pm}7.0cm$ in height. Therefore, Network-RTK survey that enables single GNSS receiver to measure positions in short time is a practical alternative in positioning GCPs to either RTK survey that uses more than two sets of GNSS receivers or Static GNSS survey that requires longer observation time.