• Title/Summary/Keyword: Numerical Forecasting Model

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Prediction of Low Level Wind Shear Using High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Model at the Jeju International Airport, Korea (고해상도 수치모델을 이용한 제주국제공항 저층급변풍 예측)

  • Kim, Geun-Hoi;Choi, Hee-Wook;Seok, Jae-Hyeok;Kim, Yeon-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.88-95
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    • 2021
  • In aviation meteorology, the low level wind shear is defined as a sudden change of head windbelow 1600 feet that can affect the departing and landing of the aircraft. Jeju International Airport is an area where low level wind shear is frequently occurred by Mt. Halla. Forecasting of such wind shear would be useful in providing early warnings to aircraft. In this study, we investigated the performance of statistical downscaling model, called Korea Meteorological Administration Post-processing (KMAP) with a 100 m resolution in forecasting wind shear by the complex terrain. The wind shear forecasts was produced by calculating the wind differences between stations aligned with the runways. Two typical wind shear cases caused by complex terrain are validated by comparing to Low Level Wind Shear Alert System (LLWAS). This has been shown to have a good performance for describing air currents caused by terrain.

Study on Construction of Flood Hazard Information Support System based on Scenario (시나리오 기반 홍수위험정보지원시스템 구축 방안 연구)

  • Goo, Sin-Hoi;Jin, Kyeong-Hyeok;Cheong, Tae-Sung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry, and Cartography Conference
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    • 2010.04a
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    • pp.389-393
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    • 2010
  • The Objective of this study was to develop a system for visualizing inundation area by using 1-D numerical model analyzing damage information such as inundation area, facilities, land usages, population, building, loads. In this study, we have reviewed hydraulic models to select a flood model for simulation of discharges, water depths and velocities. The study area is Namhan River from Youngwol to Paldang Dam which had a flood damage on upper and below regions of Chungju Dam by a storm event in 2006. At the first, we developed the DB system base on GIS thematic map, ortho images, cadastral maps to analyze flood damages and support decisions making. Changing the boundary conditions such as discharge at the gauging stations, flood simulations were performed and then damages were extracted from the databases information support system based on 1-D numerical hydraulic model, it is expected to be able to analyze flood damages and support a decision making for reduce flood relate damages. In the future, the system developed in this study could be applied for flood forecasting system of small scaled streams.

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Comparison of Precipitable Water Vapor Observations by GPS, Radiosonde and NWP Simulation (GPS와 라디오존데 관측 및 수치예보 결과의 가강수량 비교)

  • Park, Chang-Geun;Baek, Jeong-Ho;Cho, Jung-Ho
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.555-566
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    • 2009
  • Precipitable water vapor (PWV) derived from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model were compared to observations derived from ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers. The model data compared were from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model short-range forecasts on nested grids. The numerical experimets were performed by selecting the cloud microphysics schemes and for the comparisons, the Changma period of 2008 was selected. The observational data were derived from GPS measurements at 9-sites in South Korea over a 1-month period, in the middle of June-July 2008. In general, the WRF model demonstrated considerable skill in reproducing the temporal and spatial evolution of the PWV as depicted by the GPS estimations. The correlation between forecasts and GPS estimates of PWV depreciated slowly with increasing forecast times. Comparing simulations with a resolution of 18 km and 6 km showed no obvious PWV dependence on resolution. Besides, GPS and the model PWV data were found to be in quite good agreement with data derived from radiosondes. These results indicated that the GPS-derived PWV data, with high temporal and spatial resolution, are very useful for meteorological applications.

Development of a Conjunctive Surface-Subsurface Flow Model for Use in Land Surface Models at a Large Scale: Part II. Model Implementation (대규모 육지수문모형에서 사용 가능한 지표면 및 지표하 연계 물흐름 모형의 개발: II. 모형적용)

  • Choi, Hyun-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.23-27
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    • 2008
  • The new conjunctive surface-subsurface flow model at a large scale was developed by using a 1-D Diffusion Wave (DW) model for surface flow interacting with the 3-D Volume Averaged Soil-moisture Transport (VAST) model for subsurface flow for the comprehensive terrestrial water and energy predictions in Land Surface Models (LSMs). A selection of numerical implementation schemes is employed for each flow component. The 3-D VAST model is implemented using a time splitting scheme applying an explicit method for lateral flow after a fully implicit method for vertical flow. The 1-D DW model is then solved by MacCormack finite difference scheme. This new conjunctive flow model is substituted for the existing 1-D hydrologic scheme in Common Land Model (CLM), one of the state-of-the-art LSMs. The new conjunctive flow model coupled to CLM is tested for a study domain around the Ohio Valley. The simulation results show that the interaction between surface flow and subsurface flow associated with the flow routing scheme matches the runoff prediction with the observations more closely in the new coupled CLM simulations. This improved terrestrial hydrologic module will be coupled to the Climate extension of the next-generation Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model for advanced regional, continental, and global hydroclimatological studies and the prevention of disasters caused by climate changes.

A Study on Real time Multiple Fault Diagnosis Control Methods (실시간 다중고장진단 제어기법에 관한 연구)

  • 배용환;배태용;이석희
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 1995.04b
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    • pp.457-462
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    • 1995
  • This paper describes diagnosis strategy of the Flexible Multiple Fault Diagnosis Module for forecasting faults in system and deciding current machine state form sensor information. Most studydeal with diagnosis control stategy about single fault in a system, this studies deal with multiple fault diagnosis. This strategy is consist of diagnosis control module such as backward tracking expert system shell, various neural network, numerical model to predict machine state and communication module for information exchange and cooperate between each model. This models are used to describe structure, function and behavior of subsystem, complex component and total system. Hierarchical structure is very efficient to represent structural, functional and behavioral knowledge. FT(Fault Tree). ST(Symptom Tree), FCD(Fault Consequence Diagrapy), SGM(State Graph Model) and FFM(Functional Flow Model) are used to represent hierachical structure. In this study, IA(Intelligent Agent) concept is introduced to match FT component and event symbol in diagnosed system and to transfer message between each event process. Proposed diagnosis control module is made of IPC(Inter Process Communication) method under UNIX operating system.

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Typhoon Surge Hindcast in the East China Sea Using a Three-dimensional Numerical Model (3 차원수치(次元數値)모델을 이용(利用)한 동지군해(東支郡海)의 태풍해일(颱風海溢)의 산정(算定))

  • Choi, Byung Ho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.67-78
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    • 1984
  • A three-dimensional hydrodynamic numerical model of the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea was developed to investigate the intermediate scale processes in the region. The model was applied to the three dimensional computation of the typhoon induced currents on the continental: shelf for a 5 days period in Summer, 1978. The circulation pattern showing depth and spatial distribution of currents over the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea is presented and analyzed. This initial study has been undertaken in association with the programme of establishment of real-time forecasting schemes based on dynamic principles.

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The Effects of Typhoon Initialization and Dropwindsonde Data Assimilation on Direct and Indirect Heavy Rainfall Simulation in WRF model

  • Lee, Ji-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.460-475
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    • 2015
  • A number of heavy rainfall events on the Korean Peninsula are indirectly influenced by tropical cyclones (TCs) when they are located in southeastern China. In this study, a heavy rainfall case in the middle Korean region is selected to examine the influence of typhoon simulation performance on predictability of remote rainfall over Korea as well as direct rainfall over Taiwan. Four different numerical experiments are conducted using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, toggling on and off two different improvements on typhoon in the model initial condition (IC), which are TC bogussing initialization and dropwindsonde observation data assimilation (DA). The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory TC initialization algorithm is implemented to generate the bogused vortex instead of the initial typhoon, while the airborne observation obtained from dropwindsonde is applied by WRF Three-dimensional variational data assimilation. Results show that use of both TC initialization and DA improves predictability of TC track as well as rainfall over Korea and Taiwan. Without any of IC improvement usage, the intensity of TC is underestimated during the simulation. Using TC initialization alone improves simulation of direct rainfall but not of indirect rainfall, while using DA alone has a negative impact on the TC track forecast. This study confirms that the well-suited TC simulation over southeastern China improves remote rainfall predictability over Korea as well as TC direct rainfall over Taiwan.

Refined numerical simulation in wind resource assessment

  • Cheng, Xue-Ling;Li, Jun;Hu, Fei;Xu, Jingjing;Zhu, Rong
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.59-74
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    • 2015
  • A coupled model system for Wind Resource Assessment (WRA) was studied. Using a mesoscale meteorological model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, global-scale data were downscaled to the inner nested grid scale (typically a few kilometers), and then through the coupling Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) mode, FLUENT. High-resolution results (50 m in the horizontal direction; 10 m in the vertical direction below 150 m) of the wind speed distribution data and ultimately refined wind farm information, were obtained. The refined WRF/FLUENT system was then applied to assess the wind resource over complex terrain in the northern Poyang Lake region. The results showed that the approach is viable for the assessment of wind energy.

A Numerical Case Study Examining the Orographic Effect of the Taebaek Mountains on Snowfall Distribution over the Yeongdong Area (태백산맥이 영동지역의 강설량 분포에 미치는 영향에 관한 수치 모의 사례 연구)

  • Lee, Jae Gyoo;Kim, Yu Jin
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.367-386
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    • 2008
  • The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was designed to identify the role of the Taebaek Mountains in the occurrence of heavy snowfall in Yeongdong area with a strong northeast wind on January 20-21, 2008. To this end, in addition to the control simulation with the realistic distribution of the Taebaek Mountains, a sensitivity experiment that removed the orography over the Taebaek Mountains was performed. The control simulation results showed that the resulting wind field and precipitation distribution were similar to what were observed. Results from the sensitivity experiment clearly demonstrates the presence of orographic lifting on the windward slope of the mountains. It is concluded that the altitude of the Taebaek Mountains is the main controlling factor in determining the distribution and amount of precipitation in the Yeongdong area for the case of heavy snowfall in January 2008.

Rip Current Sensitive Analysis Using Rose Diagram for Wave-Induced Current Vectors at Haeundae Beach, Korea (해빈류 벡터 장미도를 통한 해운대 해수욕장의 이안류 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, Dong Hee;Lee, Sahong;Lee, Jung Lyul
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.320-326
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    • 2016
  • Rip current forecasts, based on intensity, are marked in four levels—notice, watch, warning, and danger. However, numerical results are represented by current vectors, whose magnitudes are then converted into predictive levels. In the present study, the rose diagram is adapted as a determinative forecasting index and examined for the case of an ideal rip channel consisting of surface, bottom, and averaged currents. Further, it is employed in the sensitivity analysis of wave-induced currents generated by wave conditions at the Haeundae Beach. The simulation of surface onshore and bottom undertow currents is accomplished by including a mass flux term in the wave-averaged continuity equation.