• 제목/요약/키워드: Normal Distributions

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Estimating Discriminatory Power with Non-normality and a Small Number of Defaults

  • Hong, C.S.;Kim, H.J.;Lee, J.L.
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제25권5호
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    • pp.803-811
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    • 2012
  • For credit evaluation models, we extend the study of discriminatory power based on AUC obtained from a ROC curve when the number of defaults is small and distribution functions of the defaults and non-defaults are normal distributions. Since distribution functions do not satisfy normality in real world, the distribution functions of the defaults and non-defaults are assumed as normal mixture distributions based on results that the normal mixture could be better fitted than other distribution estimation methods for non-normal data. By using several AUC statistics, the discriminatory power under such a circumstance is explored and compared with those of normal distributions.

Evaluation of wind loads and the potential of Turkey's south west region by using log-normal and gamma distributions

  • Ozkan, Ramazan;Sen, Faruk;Balli, Serkan
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제31권4호
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    • pp.299-309
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    • 2020
  • In this study, wind data such as speeds, loads and potential of Muğla which is located in the southwest of Turkey were statistically analyzed. The wind data which consists of hourly wind speed between 2010 and 2013 years, was measured at the 10-meters height in four different ground stations (Datça, Fethiye, Marmaris, Köyceğiz). These stations are operated by The Turkish State Meteorological Service (T.S.M.S). Furthermore, wind data was analyzed by using Log-Normal and Gamma distributions, since these distributions fit better than Weibull, Normal, Exponential and Logistic distributions. Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and the coefficients of the goodness of fit (R2) were also determined by using statistical analysis. According to the results, extreme wind speed in the research area was 33 m/s at the Datça station. The effective wind load at this speed is 0.68 kN/㎡. The highest mean power densities for Datça, Fethiye, Marmaris and Köyceğiz were found to be 46.2, 1.6, 6.5 and 2.2 W/㎡, respectively. Also, although Log-normal distribution exhibited a good performance i.e., lower AD (Anderson - Darling statistic (AD) values) values, Gamma distribution was found more suitable in the estimation of wind speed and power of the region.

Moments of a Class of Internally Truncated Normal Distributions

  • Kim, Hea-Jung
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.679-686
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    • 2007
  • Moment expressions are derived for the internally truncated normal distributions commonly applied to screening and constrained problems. They are obtained from using a recursive relation between the moments of the normal distribution whose distribution is truncated in its internal part. Closed form formulae for the moments can be presented up to $N^{th}$ order under the internally truncated case. Necessary theories and two applications are provided.

On a Skew-t Distribution

  • Kim, Hea-Jung
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제8권3호
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    • pp.867-873
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    • 2001
  • In this paper we propose a family of skew- f distributions. The family is derived by a scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions introduced by Azzalini (1985) and Henze (1986). The salient features of the family are mathematical tractability and strict inclusion of the normal law. Further it includes a shape parameter, to some extent, controls the index of skewness. Necessary theory involved in deriving the family of distributions is provided and main properties of the family are also studied.

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Mapping Particle Size Distributions into Predictions of Properties for Powder Metal Compacts

  • German, Randall M.
    • 한국분말야금학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국분말야금학회 2006년도 Extended Abstracts of 2006 POWDER METALLURGY World Congress Part2
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    • pp.704-705
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    • 2006
  • Discrete element analysis is used to map various log-normal particle size distributions into measures of the in-sphere pore size distribution. Combinations evaluated range from monosized spheres to include bimodal mixtures and various log-normal distributions. The latter proves most useful in providing a mapping of one distribution into the other (knowing the particle size distribution we want to predict the pore size distribution). Such metrics show predictions where the presence of large pores is anticipated that need to be avoided to ensure high sintered properties.

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Multivariate measures of skewness for the scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions

  • Kim, Hyoung-Moon;Zhao, Jun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.109-130
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    • 2018
  • Several measures of multivariate skewness for scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions are derived. As a special case, those of multivariate skew-t distribution are considered in detail. Furthermore, the similarities, differences, and behavior of these measures are explored for cases of some specific members of the multivariate skew-normal and skew-t distributions using a simulation study. Since some measures are vectors, it is better to take all measures in the same scale when comparing them. In order to attain such a set of comparable indices, the sample version is considered for each of the skewness measures that are taken as test statistics for the hypothesis of t distribution against skew-t distribution. An application is reported for the data set consisting of 71 total glycerol and magnesium contents in Grignolino wine.

A Two-Stage Elimination Type Selection Procedure for Stochastically Increasing Distributions : with an Application to Scale Parameters Problem

  • Lee, Seung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • 제19권1호
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    • pp.24-44
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    • 1990
  • The purpose of this paper is to extend the idea of Tamhane and Bechhofer (1977, 1979) concerning the normal means problem to some general class of distributions. The key idea in Tamhane and Bechhofer is the derivation of the computable lower bounds on the probability of a correct selection. To derive such lower bounds, they used the specific covariance structure of a multivariate normal distribution. It is shown that such lower bounds can be obtained for a class of stochastically increasing distributions under certain conditions, which is sufficiently general so as to include the normal means problem as a special application. As an application of the general theory to the scale parameters problem, a two-stage elimination type procedure for selecting the population associated with the smallest variance from among several normal populations is proposed. The design constants are tabulated and the relative efficiencies are computed.

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A spatial heterogeneity mixed model with skew-elliptical distributions

  • Farzammehr, Mohadeseh Alsadat;McLachlan, Geoffrey J.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제29권3호
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    • pp.373-391
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    • 2022
  • The distribution of observations in most econometric studies with spatial heterogeneity is skewed. Usually, a single transformation of the data is used to approximate normality and to model the transformed data with a normal assumption. This assumption is however not always appropriate due to the fact that panel data often exhibit non-normal characteristics. In this work, the normality assumption is relaxed in spatial mixed models, allowing for spatial heterogeneity. An inference procedure based on Bayesian mixed modeling is carried out with a multivariate skew-elliptical distribution, which includes the skew-t, skew-normal, student-t, and normal distributions as special cases. The methodology is illustrated through a simulation study and according to the empirical literature, we fit our models to non-life insurance consumption observed between 1998 and 2002 across a spatial panel of 103 Italian provinces in order to determine its determinants. Analyzing the posterior distribution of some parameters and comparing various model comparison criteria indicate the proposed model to be superior to conventional ones.

비정규 혼합분포에서의 최적분류점 (Optimal Thresholds from Non-Normal Mixture)

  • 홍종선;주재선
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제23권5호
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    • pp.943-953
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    • 2010
  • 신용평가연구에서 확률변수 스코어와 정상과 부도상태의 모수공간으로 정의된 혼합분포에서 확률밀도함수의 관계식으로 최적분류점을 추정하고 이에 대응하는 오류합의 크기를 비교하는 연구가 정규분포의 가정하에 이루어져있는데 본 연구에서는 비정규분포인 와이블, 로지스틱 그리고 감마분포로 확장하여 가설검정을 이용하는 방법과 전체정확도와 진실율을 최대화하는 방법에 의한 최적분류점을 각각 구하고 최적분류점에 대응하는 제I종과 제II종 오류합의 크기를 비교하여 효율성을 비교 토론한다.

Novel approach to predicting the release probability when applying the MARSSIM statistical test to a survey unit with a specific residual radioactivity distribution based on Monte Carlo simulation

  • Chun, Ga Hyun;Cheong, Jae Hak
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제54권5호
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    • pp.1606-1615
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    • 2022
  • For investigating whether the MARSSIM nonparametric test has sufficient statistical power when a site has a specific contamination distribution before conducting a final status survey (FSS), a novel approach was proposed to predict the release probability of the site. Five distributions were assumed: lognormal distribution, normal distribution, maximum extreme value distribution, minimum extreme value distribution, and uniform distribution. Hypothetical radioactivity populations were generated for each distribution, and Sign tests were performed to predict the release probabilities after extracting samples using Monte Carlo simulations. The designed Type I error (0.01, 0.05, and 0.1) was always satisfied for all distributions, while the designed Type II error (0.01, 0.05, and 0.1) was not always met for the uniform, maximum extreme value, and lognormal distributions. Through detailed analyses for lognormal and normal distributions which are often found for contaminants in actual environmental or soil samples, it was found that a greater statistical power was obtained from survey units with normal distribution than with lognormal distribution. This study is expected to contribute to achieving the designed decision error when the contamination distribution of a survey unit is identified, by predicting whether the survey unit passes the statistical test before undertaking the FSS according to MARSSIM.