• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.127-135
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• 2009

It is necessary to forecast the amount of the maximum electricity demand for stabilizing the flow of electricity. The time series data was collected from the Korea Energy Research between January 2000 and December 2006. The data showed that they had a strong linear trend and seasonal change. Winters seasonal model, ARMA model were used to examine it. Root mean squared prediction error and mean absolute percentage prediction error were a criteria to select the best model. In addition, a nonstationary generalized extreme value distribution with explanatory variables was fitted to forecast the maximum electricity.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.17 no.7
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• pp.930-938
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• 2007

Captions which appear in images include information that relates to the images. In order to obtain the information carried by captions, the methods for text extraction from images have been developed. However, most existing methods can be applied to captions with fixed height of stroke's width. We propose a method which can be applied to various caption size. Our method is based on connected components. And then the edge pixels are detected and grouped into connected components. We analyze the properties of connected components and build a neural network which discriminates connected components which include captions from ones which do not. Experimental data is collected from broadcast programs such as news, documentaries, and show programs which include various height caption. Experimental result is evaluated by two criteria : recall and precision. Recall is the ratio of the identified captions in all the captions in images and the precision is the ratio of the captions in the objects identified as captions. The experiment shows that the proposed method can efficiently extract captions various in size.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.167-178
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• 1994

To estimate coefficient matrix in autoregressive model, usually ordinary least squares estimator or unconditional maximum likelihood estimator is used. It is unknown that for univariate AR(p) model, unconditional maximum likelihood estimator gives better power property that ordinary least squares estimator in testing for unit root with mean estimated. When autoregressive model contains multiple unit roots and unconditional likelihood function is used to estimate coefficient matrix, the seperation of nonstationary part and stationary part of the eigen-values in the estimated coefficient matrix in the limit is developed. This asymptotic property may give an idea to test for multiple unit roots.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.697-707
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• 2017

In this paper, we propose a modified GARCH(p, q)-X model which is obtained by adding the exogenous variables to the modified GARCH(p, q) process. Some limiting properties are shown under various stationary and nonstationary exogenous processes which are generated by another process independent of the noise process. The proposed model extends the GARCH(1, 1)-X model studied by Han (2015) to various GARCH(p, q)-type models such as GJR GARCH, asymptotic power GARCH and VGARCH combined with exogenous process. In comparison with GARCH(1, 1)-X, we expect that many stylized facts including long memory property of the financial time series can be explained effectively by modified GARCH(p, q) model combined with proper additional covariate.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.1437-1440
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• 2007

Many hydroclimatic time series are marked by interannual and longer quasi-period features that are associated with narrow band oscillatory climate modes. A time series modeling approach that directly considers such structures is developed and presented. The essence of the approach is to first develop a wavelet decomposition of the time series that retains only the statistically significant wavelet components, and to then model each such component and the residual time series as univariate autoregressive processes. The efficacy of this approach is demonstrated through the simulation of observed and paleo reconstructions of climate indices related to ENSO and AMO, tree ring and rainfall time series. Long ensemble simulations that preserve the spectral attributes of the time series in each ensemble member can be generated. The usual low order statistics are preserved by the proposed model, and its long memory performance is superior to the direction application of an autoregressive model.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.377-390
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• 2010

In the case of time-series analysis, it is often more convenient to rely on the frequency domain than the time domain. Spectral density is the core of the frequency-domain analysis that describes autocorrelation structures in a time-series process. Possible ways to estimate spectral density are to compute a periodogram or to average the periodogram over some frequencies with (un)equal weights. This can be an attractive tool to measure the similarity between time-series processes. We employ the metrics based on a smoothed periodogram proposed by Park and Kim (2008) for the classification of different classes of time-series processes. We consider several lag windows with unequal weights instead of a modified Daniel's window used in Park and Kim (2008). We evaluate the performance under various simulation scenarios. Simulation results reveal that the metrics used in this study split the time series into the preassigned clusters better than do the raw-periodogram based ones proposed by Caiado et al. 2006. Our metrics are applied to an economic time-series dataset.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.1-10
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• 1975

This paper presents an adaptive data compression algorithm for video data. The coling complexity due to the high correlation in the given data sequence is alleviated by coding the difference data, sequence rather than the data sequence itself. The adaptation to the nonstationary statistics of the data is confined within a code set, which consists of two constant length cades and six modified Shannon.Fano codes. lt is assumed that the probability distributions of tile difference data sequence and of the data entropy are Laplacian and Gaussion, respectively. The adaptive coding performance is compared for two code selection criteria: entropy and $P_r$[difference value=0]=$P_0$. It is shown that data compression ratio 2 : 1 is achievable with the adaptive coding. The gain by the adaptive coding over the fixed coding is shown to be about 10% in compression ratio and 15% in code efficiency. In addition, $P_0$ is found to he not only a convenient criterion for code selection, but also such efficient a parameter as to perform almost like entropy.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.525-537
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• 2016

The paper considers a hybrid model to analyze and forecast time series data based on an empirical mode decomposition (EMD) that accommodates complex characteristics of time series such as nonstationarity and nonlinearity. We aggregate IMFs using the concept of cumulative energy to improve the interpretability of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) from EMD. We forecast aggregated IMFs and residue with a hybrid model that combines the ARIMA model and an exponential smoothing method (ETS). The proposed method is applied to forecast KOSPI time series and is compared to traditional forecast models. Aggregated IMFs and residue provide a convenience to interpret the short, medium and long term dynamics of the KOSPI. It is also observed that the hybrid model with ARIMA and ETS is superior to traditional and other types of hybrid models.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.909-921
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• 2010

Cross-wave regression imputation and carry-over imputation method are generally used in the analysis of panel data with missing values. Recently it is known that the BLS non-response adjust method has good statistical properties. In this paper we show that the BLS method can be considered as an imputation method with a similar formula of a ratio-estimator. In addition, we show that the carry-over imputation and BLS imputation are approximately the same under the assumption that data follow a non-stationary process with drift. Small simulation studies and real data analysis are performed. For the real data analysis, a monthly labor statistic (2007) is used.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.49-62
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• 2022

Realized volatility is well known to have long memory, strong association with other global financial markets and interdependences among macroeconomic indices such as exchange rate, oil price and interest rates. This paper proposes autoencoder factor-augmented heterogeneous autoregressive (AE-FAHAR) model for realized volatility forecasting. AE-FAHAR incorporates long memory using HAR structure, and exogenous variables into few factors summarized by autoencoder. Autoencoder requires intensive calculation due to its nonlinear structure, however, it is more suitable to summarize complex, possibly nonstationary high-dimensional time series. Our AE-FAHAR model is shown to have smaller out-of-sample forecasting error in empirical analysis. We also discuss pre-training, ensemble in autoencoder to reduce computational cost and estimation errors.