• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2019.05a
• /
• pp.147-147
• /
• 2019

The Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models determine the future state of the weather by forcing current weather conditions into the atmospheric models. The NWP models approximate mathematically the physical dynamics by nonlinear differential equations; however these approximations include uncertainties. The errors of the NWP estimations can be related to the initial and boundary conditions and model parameterization. Development in the meteorological forecast models did not solve the issues related to the inevitable biases. In spite of the efforts to incorporate all sources of uncertainty into the forecast, and regardless of the methodologies applied to generate the forecast ensembles, they are still subject to errors and systematic biases. The statistical post-processing increases the accuracy of the forecast data by decreasing the errors. Error prediction of the NWP models which is updating the NWP model outputs or model output statistics is one of the ways to improve the model forecast. The regression methods (including linear, polynomial and scaling regression) are applied to the present study to improve the real time forecast skill. Such post-processing consists of two main steps. Firstly, regression is built between forecast and measurement, available during a certain training period, and secondly, the regression is applied to new forecasts. In this study, the WRF real-time forecast data, in comparison with the observed data, had systematic biases; the errors related to the NWP model forecasts were reflected in the underestimation of the meteorological data forecast by the WRF model. The promising results will indicate that the post-processing techniques applied in this study improved the meteorological forecast data provided by WRF model. A comparison between various bias correction methods will show the strength and weakness of the each methods.

• Journal of Welding and Joining
• /
• v.34 no.2
• /
• pp.67-72
• /
• 2016

Aluminum alloy is one of light weight material and it is used to make LNG tank and ship. However, in order to weld aluminum alloy high density heat source is needed. In this paper, I-butt welding of Al 5083 with 6mm thickness using Plasma-MIG welding was carried out. The experiment was performed to investigate the influence of plasma-MIG welding parameters such as plasma current, wire feeding rate, MIG-welding voltage and welding speed on the tensile strength of weld. In addition we suggested 3 strength estimation models which are second order polynomial regression model, multiple nonlinear regression model and neural network model. The estimation performance of 3 models was evaluated in terms of average error rate (AER) and their values were 0.125, 0.238, and 0.021 respectively. Neural network model which has training concept and reflects non -linearity was best estimation performance.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
• /
• v.7 no.5
• /
• pp.1361-1369
• /
• 2000

For the implementation of 3D Sound Localization system, the binaural filtering by HRTFs is generally employed. But the HRTF filter is of high order and its coefficients for all directions have to be stored, which imposes a rather large memory requirement. To cope with this, research works have centered on obtaining low dimensional HRTF representations without significant loss of information and synthesizing the original HRTF efficiently, by means of feature extraction methods for multivariate dat including PCA. In these researches, conventional linear PCA was applied to the frequency domain HRTF data and using relatively small number of principal components the original HRTFs could be synthesized in approximation. In this paper we applied neural network based nonlinear PCA model (NLPCA) and the nonlinear PLS repression model (NLPLS) for this low dimensional HRTF modeling and analyze the results in comparison with the PCA. The NLPCA that performs projection of data onto the nonlinear surfaces showed the capability of more efficient HRTF feature extraction than linear PCA and the NLPLS regression model that incorporates the direction information in feature extraction yielded more stable results in synthesizing general HRTFs not included in the model training.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.21 no.5
• /
• pp.831-839
• /
• 2010

Least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) is a kernel trick gaining a lot of popularities in the regression and classification problems. We use LS-SVM to propose a iterative algorithm for a nonlinear generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model in the mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate the mean and the conditional volatility of stock market returns. The proposed method combines a weighted LS-SVM for the mean and unweighted LS-SVM for the conditional volatility. In this paper, we show that nonlinear GARCH-M models have a higher performance than the linear GARCH model and the linear GARCH-M model via real data estimations.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
• /
• v.19 no.4
• /
• pp.1-7
• /
• 2017

PURPOSES : This study aims to improve complex modeling of multivariable, nonlinear, and overdispersion data with an artificial neural network that has been a problem in the civil and transport sectors. METHODS: Deep learning, which is a technique employing artificial neural networks, was applied for developing a large bus fuel consumption model as a case study. Estimation characteristics and accuracy were compared with the results of conventional multiple regression modeling. RESULTS : The deep learning model remarkably improved estimation accuracy of regression modeling, from R-sq. 18.76% to 72.22%. In addition, it was very flexible in reflecting large variance and complex relationships between dependent and independent variables. CONCLUSIONS : Deep learning could be a new alternative that solves general problems inherent in conventional statistical methods and it is highly promising in planning and optimizing issues in the civil and transport sectors. Extended applications to other fields, such as pavement management, structure safety, operation of intelligent transport systems, and traffic noise estimation are highly recommended.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
• /
• v.16 no.1
• /
• pp.79-87
• /
• 2007

The performance of a stream water quality analysis model depends upon many factors attributed to the geological characteristics of a watershed as well as the distribution behaviors of pollutant itself on a surface of watershed. Because the model run has to import the pollution load from the watershed as a boundary condition along an interface between a stream water body and a watershed, it has been used to introduce a pollution delivery coefficient to behalf of the boundary condition of load importation. Although a nonlinear regression model (NRM) was developed to cope with the limitation of a conventional empirical way, this an up-to-date study has also a limitation that it can't be applied where the pollution load washed off (assumed at a source) is less than that delivered (observed) in a stream. The objective of this study is to identify what causes the limitation of NRM and to suggest how we can purify the process to evaluate a pollution delivery coefficient using many field observed cases. As a major result, it was found what causes the pollution load delivered to becomes bigger than that assumed at the source. In addition, the pollution load discharged to a stream water body from a specific watershed was calculated more accurately.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.17 no.2
• /
• pp.609-617
• /
• 2006

A new fuzzy c-regression algorithm for switching regression analysis is presented, which combines fuzzy c-means clustering and least squares support vector machine. This algorithm can detect outliers in switching regression models while yielding the simultaneous estimates of the associated parameters together with a fuzzy c-partitions of data. It can be employed for the model-free nonlinear regression which does not assume the underlying form of the regression function. We illustrate the new approach with some numerical examples that show how it can be used to fit switching regression models to almost all types of mixed data.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
• /
• v.8 no.4
• /
• pp.621-652
• /
• 2012

Software Estimations provide an inclusive set of directives for software project developers, project managers, and the management in order to produce more realistic estimates based on deficient, uncertain, and noisy data. A range of estimation models are being explored in the industry, as well as in academia, for research purposes but choosing the best model is quite intricate. Estimation by Analogy (EbA) is a form of case based reasoning, which uses fuzzy logic, grey system theory or machine-learning techniques, etc. for optimization. This research compares the estimation accuracy of some conventional data mining models with a hybrid model. Different data mining models are under consideration, including linear regression models like the ordinary least square and ridge regression, and nonlinear models like neural networks, support vector machines, and multivariate adaptive regression splines, etc. A precise and comprehensible predictive model based on the integration of GRA and regression has been introduced and compared. Empirical results have shown that regression when used with GRA gives outstanding results; indicating that the methodology has great potential and can be used as a candidate approach for software effort estimation.

• Journal of Information Display
• /
• v.5 no.3
• /
• pp.35-40
• /
• 2004

In this study, we collected data used to formulate the relationship between quantitative metrological parameters in CRT display and the perceived focus quality. Human perception of the focusing quality was evaluated in terms of user feedback scores regarding the character legibility from four highly trained inspectors. Thirteen CRT monitors from five different manufacturers were compared relatively with respect to the norm monitor. The profile of electron beam such as spot size and the shape of distribution made by electron beam, contrast, convergence of RGB beams, and luminance characteristics were measured using a precision measurement system. Linear regression analysis and artificial neural network models were used to formulate the relationship between human perception and the quantitative measurements. The accuracy of the formulated linear regression model ($R^2$=0.515) was not satisfactory but the nonlinear neural network model ($R^2$=0.716) was fairly convincing and robust even the utilized data included subjective differences.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.24 no.4
• /
• pp.587-595
• /
• 2011

Credit scoring is an objective and automatic system to assess the credit risk of each customer. The logistic regression model is one of the popular methods of credit scoring to predict the default probability; however, it may not detect possible nonlinear features of predictors despite the advantages of interpretability and low computation cost. In this paper, we propose to use a generalized partially linear model as an alternative to logistic regression. We also introduce modern ensemble technologies such as bagging, boosting and random forests. We compare these methods via a simulation study and illustrate them through a German credit dataset.