• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.96-114
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper elucidates a nexus between the occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of economic growth by distinguishing the likelihood of rare events from stochastic volatility. We provide new empirical facts based on a quarterly time series. In particular, we focus on the role of financial liberalization in spreading the economic crisis in developing countries. Design/methodology - We use quarterly data on consumption expenditure (real per capita consumption) from 44 countries, including advanced and developing countries, ending in the fourth quarter of 2020. We estimate the likelihood of rare event occurrences and stochastic volatility for countries using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method developed by Barro and Jin (2021). We present our estimation results for the relationship between rare disaster events, stochastic volatility, and growth volatility. Findings - We find the global common disaster event, the COVID-19 pandemic, and thirteen country-specific disaster events. Consumption falls by about 7% on average in the first quarter of a disaster and by 4% in the long run. The occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) growth are positively correlated (4.8%), whereas the rare events and GDP growth rate are negatively correlated (-12.1%). In particular, financial liberalization has played an important role in exacerbating the adverse impact of both rare disasters and financial market instability on growth volatility. Several case studies, including the case of South Korea, provide insights into the cause of major financial crises in small open developing countries, including the Asian currency crisis of 1998. Originality/value - This paper presents new empirical facts on the relationship between the occurrence of rare disaster events (or stochastic volatility) and growth volatility. Increasing data frequency allows for greater accuracy in assessing a country's specific risk. Our findings suggest that financial market and institutional stability can be vital for buffering against rare disaster shocks. It is necessary to preemptively strengthen the foundation for financial stability in developing countries and increase the quality of the information provided to markets.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Power Electronics
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.453-456
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• 2016

The major causes of electrical fire in low-voltage distribution lines are classified into short-circuit fault, overload fault, electric leakage, and electric contact failure. The special principal factor of the fire is electric arc or spark accompanied with such electric faults. This paper studies the development of an electric fire prevention system with detection and alarm of that in case of parallel arc fault occurrence in low-voltage distribution lines. The proposed system is designed on algorithm sensing the instantaneous voltage drop of line voltage at arc fault occurrence. The proposed detector has characteristics of high-speed operation responsibility and superior system reliability from composition using a large number of semiconductor devices. A new sensing control method that shows the detection of parallel arc fault is sensed to ripple voltage drop through a diode bridge full-wave rectifier at electrical accident occurrence. Some experimental tests of the proposed system also confirm the practicality and validity of the analytical results.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.436-446
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• 2008

The volumetric expansion ratio of rock mass on the subsidence occurrence area can explain why the depth of the surface subsidence is lower than the height of an opening; it is because the empty space of the gangway is filled with the broken rock. But, until now, when the surface subsidence mechanism is studied without consideration of the volumetric expansion ratio, it is usually overlooked that the amount of subsidence occurrence can be overestimated. Therefore, in this study, the authors researched the subsidence occurrence mechanism with a new theoretical approaching method. The volumetric expansion ratio obtained from this method has been applied to the numerical simulations. The authors adopted the UDEC(Universal Distinct Element Code) for their discontinuum numerical analysis, because this program has an advantage for analyzing the behavior of rock discontinuities.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.99-115
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• 2005

For an analysis of the performance of a computer system, the minimum cycle time method has been widely used. The minimum cycle time method is a mathematical technique with which we can find the minimum duration time needed to fire all the transitions at least once and coming back to the Initial marking in a timed net. A timed net is a modified version of a Petri net where a transition is associated with a delay time. In the real world, an event is associated with a probability of occurrence. However, a timed net is not equipped with any facility of specifying probability of event occurrence. Therefore, the minimum cycle time method applied on a timed net can easily overlook probabilities of occurrences of events and yield a wrong result. We are proposing 'Timed Net with Probabilities of Choices' where a transition can be associated with both delay time and a probability of occurrence. We also introduce an algorithm for minimum cycle time analysis on a 'Timed Net with Probabilities of Choices'. As an example of application, we are performing an analysis of the location based service system using 'Timed Net with Probabilities of Choices'.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.136-142
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• 2016

The FMEA is a widely used technique to pre-evaluate and avoid risks due to potential failures for developing an improved design. The conventional FMEA does not consider the possible time gap between occurrence and detection of failure cause. When a failure cause is detected and corrected before the failure itself occurs, there will be no other effect except the correction cost. But, if its cause is detected after the failure actually occurs, its effects will become more severe depending on the duration of the uncorrected failure. Taking this situation into account, a risk metric is developed as an alternative to the RPN of the conventional FMEA. The severity of a failure effect is first modeled as linear and quadratic severity functions of undetected failure time duration. Assuming exponential probability distribution for occurrence and detection time of failures and causes, the expected severity is derived for each failure cause. A new risk metric REM is defined as the product of a failure cause occurrence rate and the expected severity of its corresponding failure. A numerical example and some discussions are provided for illustration.

• Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.277-287
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• 2023

Since the first discovery of antibiotics, introduction of new antibiotics has been coupled with the occurrence of antibiotic resistant bacteria (ARB) and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs). Rapid dissemination of ARB and ARGs in the aquatic environments has become a global concern. ARB and ARGs have been already disseminated in the aquatic environments via various routes. Main hosts of most of ARGs were found to belong to Gammaproteobacteria class, including clinically important potential pathogens. Transmission of ARGs also occurs by horizontal gene transfer (HGT) mechanisms between bacterial strains in the aquatic environments, resulting in ubiquity of ARGs. Thus, a few of ARGs and MGEs (e.g., strA, sul1, int1) have been suggested as indicators for global comparability of contamination level in the aquatic environments. With ARB and ARGs contamination, the occurrence of critical pathogens has been globally issued due to their widespread in the aquatic environments. Thus, active surveillance systems have been launched worldwide. In this review, we described advancement of methodologies for ARGs detection, and occurrence of ARB and ARGs and their dissemination in the aquatic environments. Even though numerous studies have been conducted for ARB and ARGs, there is still no clear strategy to tackle antibiotic resistance (AR) in the aquatic environments. At least, for consistent surveillance, a strict framework should be established for further research in the aquatic environments.

• Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.28-34
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• 2015

HCCI (Homogeneous Charged Compression Ignition) hydrogen engine has relatively narrower operation range caused by backfire occurrence due to the rapid pressure rising by using higher compression ratio and significant reaction velocity. In this study, to grasp of backfire process and characteristic in the HCCI research hydrogen engine, in-cylinder pressure, intake pressure and backfire limit range are analyzed with compression ratio and intake valve open timing, experimentally. As the result, it is observed that knock is occurred just before backfire occurrence in HCCI hydrogen engine but not spark igntion type, this phenomenon is always the same for the above variables. Also backfire limit range are expanded up to 50% for the more retarding intake valve open timing in this operating conditions.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers D
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• v.54 no.10
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• pp.615-619
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• 2005

Token coherence protocol has many good reasons against snooping/directory-based protocol in terms of latency, bandwidth, and complexity. Token counting easily maintains correctness of the protocol without global ordering of request which is basis of other dominant cache coherence protocols. But this lack of global ordering causes starvation which is not happening in snooping/directory-based protocols. Token coherence protocol solves this problem by providing an emergency mechanism called persistent request. It enforces other processors in the competition (or accessing same shared memory block, to give up their tokens to feed a starving processor. However, as the number of processors grows in a system, the frequency of starvation occurrence increases. In other words, the situation where persistent request occurs becomes too frequent to be emergent. As the frequency of persistent requests increases, not only the cost of each persistent matters since it is based on broadcasting to all processors, but also the increased traffic of persistent requests will saturate the bandwidth of multiprocessor interconnection network. This paper proposes a new request mechanism that defines order of requests to reduce occurrence of persistent requests. This ordering mechanism has been designed to be decentralized since centralized mechanism in both snooping-based protocol and directory-based protocol is one of primary reasons why token coherence protocol has advantage in terms of latency and bandwidth against these two dominant Protocols.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.372-380
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• 2010

In this study, we consider a mid-and-long term technological forecasting method based on simulation technique. We, first, gather information about a point of appearance time of new technologies which will be developed in the future and influence relationship among those technologies by Delphi survey. And then we propose a simulation-based heuristic approach searching for the key technology among new technologies which will be developed to attain a normative objective using the Delphi data. We also provide the range of occurrence time for individual technology and define key technologies in this study in contrast that a expert's estimate to occurrence time is only one point in traditional Delphi survey. The information for key technologies which are detected by this procedure gives priorities of R&D planning and aids the R&D planner or project manager in resource allocation.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.293-302
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• 2013

The present study summarizes the occurrence, distribution and autecology of 12 taxa of the class Cyanophyceae collected from several swamps, reservoir and highland wetlands in South Korea from 2009 to 2012. A new species, Anabaena koreana sp. nov. and 11 taxa of blue-green algae newly recorded are described and illustrated. Anabaena koreana is similar to A. oumiana, A. spiroides and A. crassa in that the trichomes form regular coils. However, A. koreana is distinguished from these three species by the morphological characteristics of the vegetative cell, heterocyst, and akinet shape and size. This study considers 12 blue-green algal species, including a new species, Anabaena koreana sp. nov. and 11 species that are recorded for the first time in the Korean freshwater algal flora. Among them, the genus Nostochopsis Wood ex Bornet et Flahault 1886 had not previously been recorded in Korea.