• Title/Summary/Keyword: New Product Forecasting

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A Study of R&D Strategy-Environmental Factors-Performances of the Academia in the Information and Telecommunication Industry: An Analysis of ITRC Projects (정보통신산업에 있어서 대학의 연구전략-영향요인-성과에 관한 연구: ITRC사업 중심으로)

  • Lee, Young-Duck
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.431-449
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    • 2008
  • I analyzed the relationships among motives, strategies, and performances of the university-initiated R&D activities in the Information Technology Research Center(ITRC) Projects. I suggested a research model and 3 hypothesis about them through analysis of a lot of literatures. And I also made an empirical test on the hypothesis through statistical methods. The data which were used in this analysis were gathered through a questionnaire survey to the head of R&D projects in the ITRCs. I would make several useful suggestions to the head of university's ITRCs and the policy makers. Firstly, the type of university's R&D strategy were influenced from several motives such as technology development and acquisition, co-utilizations of research facilities, and utilization and rearing of the expertise. Secondly, to select an optimal type of R&D strategy, the university should considered the efficient methods which were related to forecasting market size of new product and new technology, and to using the useful information on technology development, and to securing the expertise. Thirdly, the researcher and manager of ITRCs had to recognize the correct forecast of future market size of new product and new technology and a useful information about technology development, as the most important factors in improving performances of R&D projects. Lastly, They had to make an effort of getting the efficient methods to secure the expertise, research facilities, and rational compensation system.

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Economic Value Analysis of Document Delivery Services at Foreign Journal Supporting Center by the Parameter Estimates of Bass Diffusion Model (Bass 확산모형 추정에 의한 외국학술지 지원센터 원문복사서비스의 경제적 가치 분석)

  • Choi, Jae-Hwang;Park, Yong-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.61-74
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate economic value of document delivery services(DDS) at foreign journal supporting center in K University library. For this study, Bass diffusion model, which is widely used in forecasting, especially new product and new service forecasting, was adopted. User survey was also carried out from September 10 to 20, 2007. As a result, useful value(UV) of DDS is estimated about not less than 2,000,000,000 won, and willingness to pay(WTP) is estimated about less than 2,000,000,000 won. This study, economic value analysis at foreign journal supporting center, was limited to DDS, and used methodology for the study is also limited to UV and WTP. Demographic analysis(i.e., sex, age, occupation, educational level) for UV and WTP is also conducted.

A Study on the Forecasting of Export Demands for International Textile Products (국제(國際) 섬유제품(纖維製品) 수출수요(輸出需要)의 예측(豫測)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Yang, Lee-Na
    • Journal of Fashion Business
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.7-18
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    • 1999
  • This study concerns the demand for Korean textile products in the USA, Japan, EU from 2000 to 2003. The result from the practice of study is as follows; The grand total export demand of textile product is estimated about U$7.2billion in 2000, U$8.5billion in 2003, and the annual growing rate is estimated 5.17%. The export of textile product to USA, Japan, EU, and other countries will be gradually increased from 2000 to 2003. Comparing to annual average export growing ratio, it is expected the ranks of annual average growing ratio as follows; The highest ratio is 8.35% in EU, the next 7.08% in other countries, 2.67% in Japan, and 2.51% in USA. It shows the change of the new countries to which our nation exports textile-products from the exportmarket structure of the present major export countries such as USA, Japan to EU and other nations. Also shows the same result in the export ratio by countries. The research predicts that the textile export portion will be decreased for our nation to USA and Japan while increased to EU and other countries.

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A Study on the Seasonal Adjustment of Time Series for Seasonal New Product Sales (계절상품 판매매출액 시계열의 계절 조정에 관한 연구)

  • 서명율;이종태
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.103-124
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    • 2003
  • The seasonal adjustment is an essential process in analyzing the time series of economy and business. There are various methods to adjust seasonal effect such as moving average, extrapolation, smoothing and X11. One of the powerful adjustment methods is X11-ARIMA Model which is popularly used in Korea. This method was delivered from Canada. However, this model has been developed to be appropriate for Canadian and American environment. Therefore, we need to review whether the Xl1-ARIMA Model could be used properly in Korea. In this study, we have applied the method to the annual sales of refrigerator sales in A electronic company. We appreciated the adjustment by result analyzing the time series components such as seasonal component, trend-cycle component, and irregular component, with the proposed method.

전자산업의 서비스부품에 대한 국제로지스틱스 연구

  • 김태현
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.141-172
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    • 1996
  • This study is to investigate global logistics strategies of Korean electronics companies. in terms of service parts. According to the survey, Korean electronics companies were pursuing multi-level global logistics network such as global, continental, national, regional and service center echelon for improving the efficiency of service parts global logistics. Especially there was a tendency of developing new continental distribution centers. And the companies were exploiting efficiency through inventory control by multi-level echelon, demand forecasting by the product life cycle and supply and service lead time management. But there were some insufficient factors for the efficiency of global logistics operation at the construction of worldwide real time logistics information system and pursuit of the efficiency on the whole network including subcontractors. For the future competitive advantage of the Korean electronics companies, the following are suggested: 1) the establishment of arranged logistics channel adjusting each company's global strategy, 2) the construction of worldwide real time logistics information system, 3) the reengineering of all logistics procedures such as order processing, shipping, inventory control, etc., 4) the enhancement of the ratio of the supply from the external companies and the internal manufacturing subsidiaries at each continent, 5) and the pursuit of operational internalization of external subcontractors.

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Seaweed Cultivation in Indonesia: Recent Status

  • Pambudi, Lilik Teguh;Meinita, Maria Dyah Nur;Ariyati, Restiana Wisnu
    • Journal of Marine Bioscience and Biotechnology
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.6-10
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    • 2010
  • Indonesia is well-known as biggest producer of seaweed especially for Eucheuma and Gracilaria and also has huge potential resources and capability to develop seaweed cultivation and product. There are several provinces which have potential resources and have been contributing on seaweed production. The next challenge about seaweed production is using integrated system on brackishwater and marine aquaculture. Furthermore, about 2,000,000 ton of potential seaweed production is not explored yet. This article also tries to figure out some related aspects which are technical, economical and forecasting aspect. There is a disease which named "ice-ice" is one of the main problem and giving a new challenge in developing of problem solving for seaweed cultivation method. Economical parameters are also main important key to find out the feasibility of seaweed cultivation industry. In addition, the seaweed cultivation and production in Indonesia also have potential performance on biofuel resources as a part for solving the world problem on energy demand.

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A study on the formation of Youth's Fashion based on Street Fashion (스트리트 패션을 근원으로 한 영 패션의 형성에 대한 연구)

  • 신혜영
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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    • v.27
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    • pp.5-16
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    • 1996
  • In today's fashion Street is a birthplace of new generation fashion and Street Fashion have frequently influenced on high fashion. From this view point this study is a meaningful approach to forecast future fashion trend by examining the street style of youth who are regarded as Street Fashion leaders. The purpose of this study is to examine the Youth Fashion style in early 1990s and to pro-vide a reference to fashion designer and mer-chandiser in trend forecasting and product plan-ning. This study is focused on 1990s Youth Fashion style through the historical Street Fashion : 1950s Teddy boys & Mods 1960s Hippies & Skinhead and 1970s Punk. There were mainly two popular Street Fashion phenomena in early 1990s. There were mainly two popular Street Fashion phenomena in early 1990s. One is grunge fashion created by new gener-ation in opposition to existing generation society and impacting on hish fashion leaders. The other is Remix style that is mixed : sub culture fashion originated by young group in 1950-1970s with 1990s sensitivity. Both fashion styles origionated and led by youth of street have influenced on famous high fashion designeres as well as the general public. Street Fashion will continue to play an import-ant role in future fashion and more study and interest on Street Fashion should be taken by fashion forecaster and related.

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Forecasting of Customer's Purchasing Intention Using Support Vector Machine (Support Vector Machine 기법을 이용한 고객의 구매의도 예측)

  • Kim, Jin-Hwa;Nam, Ki-Chan;Lee, Sang-Jong
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.137-158
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    • 2008
  • Rapid development of various information technologies creates new opportunities in online and offline markets. In this changing market environment, customers have various demands on new products and services. Therefore, their power and influence on the markets grow stronger each year. Companies have paid great attention to customer relationship management. Especially, personalized product recommendation systems, which recommend products and services based on customer's private information or purchasing behaviors in stores, is an important asset to most companies. CRM is one of the important business processes where reliable information is mined from customer database. Data mining techniques such as artificial intelligence are popular tools used to extract useful information and knowledge from these customer databases. In this research, we propose a recommendation system that predicts customer's purchase intention. Then, customer's purchasing intention of specific product is predicted by using data mining techniques using receipt data set. The performance of this suggested method is compared with that of other data mining technologies.

A Study on the Retailer's Global Expansion Strategy and Supply Chain Management : Focus on the Metro Group (소매업체의 글로벌 확장전략과 공급사슬관리에 관한 연구: 메트로 그룹을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Dong-Yun;Moon, Mi-Jin;Lee, Sang-Youn
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.11 no.12
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    • pp.25-37
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - The structure of retailing has changed as retailers develop markets in response to business environment changes. This study aims to analyze the general situation of retailers in order to predict future global strategy using case studies of overseas expansion strategy and the Metro Group's global strategy. Research design, data, and methodology - The backgrounds to the new retail business model and retailer classification are analyzed as theoretical data. In addition, the key success point of the Metro Group's "cash and carry" strategy is analyzed as is the Metro Group's global CFAR (collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment) strategy. Finally, the plan for cooperation and precise forecasting under the Metro Group's supply chain management are analyzed from the promotion environment viewpoint. Related materials analyzed included the 2012 annual report, the Metro Group's web page, and a video interview with the executive in charge of global strategy and the new market development department. Some data were revised to avoid disrupting essential aspects of the case studies. Results - The important finding was that the Metro Group could be a world-class retail company with its successful global expansion strategy. The Metro Group's global strategy's primary goal is to have a leading business position in Eastern and Western Europe. The "cash and carry" strategy is highest priority in its overseas expansion strategy. Moreover, the Metro Group has standardized product planning capacity, which could be applied in various countries with different structural and cultural backgrounds. This is the main reason that the Metro Group could rapidly become successful in the Eastern Europe and Asian markets through its structural overseas expansion strategies. In addition, the Metro Group emphasizes the importance of supply chain management. Conclusions - First, retailers should create additional value through utilizing the domestic market, market power, and economies of scale to launch a global strategy to maximize benefits from diversification. Second, the political, economic, and cultural background of the target country needs to be understood to successfully implement the overseas expansion strategy. Third, the main factor of successful cooperation with a local partner is how quickly the company gains total understanding of the business resources and core competence of its partner. All organizations should focus on the achievement of goals in order to successfully operate the partnership. Fourth, retailers should improve their business, financial and organizational structure. Moreover, the work processes and company culture should also be improved to respond strongly in the competitive global market. Fifth, the essential point of a successful retail business is the control capacity of its branding and format. The retailer could avoid forecasting errors through supply chain management by perfectly distributing the actual amount of its inventory. In addition, the risks along the supply chain are effectively shared between the supply chain partners. Finally, the central tendency of the market is to gain in strength with this taking place across all parts of the business.

An Expert System for the Estimation of the Growth Curve Parameters of New Markets (신규시장 성장모형의 모수 추정을 위한 전문가 시스템)

  • Lee, Dongwon;Jung, Yeojin;Jung, Jaekwon;Park, Dohyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.17-35
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    • 2015
  • Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.