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The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

A Study on Differentiation and Improvement in Arbitration Systems in Construction Disputes (건설분쟁 중재제도의 차별화 및 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sun-Jae
    • Journal of Arbitration Studies
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.239-282
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    • 2019
  • The importance of ADR(Alternative Dispute Resolution), which has the advantage of expertise, speed and neutrality due to the increase of arbitration cases due to domestic and foreign construction disputes, has emerged. Therefore, in order for the nation's arbitration system and the arbitration Organization to jump into the ranks of advanced international mediators, it is necessary to research the characteristics and advantages of these arbitration Organization through a study of prior domestic and foreign research and operation of international arbitration Organization. As a problem, First, education for the efficient promotion of arbitrators (compulsory education, maintenance education, specialized education, seminars, etc.). second, The effectiveness of arbitration in resolving construction disputes (hearing methods, composition of the tribunal, and speed). third, The issue of flexibility and diversity of arbitration solutions (the real problem of methodologies such as mediation and arbitration) needs to be drawn on the Arbitration laws and practical problems, such as laws, rules and guidelines. Therefore, Identify the problems presented in the preceding literature and diagnosis of the defects and problems of the KCAB by drawing features and benefits from the arbitration system operated by the international arbitration Institution. As an improvement, the results of an empirical analysis are derived for "arbitrator" simultaneously through a recognition survey. As a method of improvement, First, as an optimal combination of arbitration hearing and judgment in the settlement of construction disputes,(to improve speed). (1) A plan to improve the composition of the audit department according to the complexity, specificity, and magnification of the arbitration cases - (1)Methods to cope with the increased role of the non-lawyer(Specialist, technical expert). (2)Securing technical mediators for each specialized expert according to the large and special corporation arbitration cases. (2) Improving the method of writing by area of the arbitration guidelines, second, Introduction of the intensive hearing system for psychological efficiency and the institutional improvement plan (1) Problems of optimizing the arbitration decision hearing procedure and resolution of arbitration, and (2) Problems of the management of technical arbitrators of arbitration tribunals. (1)A plan to expand hearing work of technical arbitrator(Review on the introduction of the Assistant System as a member of the arbitration tribunals). (2)Improved use of alternative appraisers by tribunals(cost analysis and utilization of the specialized institution for calculating construction costs), Direct management of technical arbitrators : A Study on the Improvement of the Assessment Reliability of the Appraisal and the Appraisal Period. third, Improvement of expert committee system and new method, (1) Creating a non-executive technical committee : Special technology affairs, etc.(Major, supports pre-qualification of special events and coordinating work between parties). (2) Expanding the standing committee.(Added expert technicians : important, special, large affairs / pre-consultations, pre-coordination and mediation-arbitration). This has been shown to be an improvement. In addition, institutional differentiation to enhance the flexibility and diversity of arbitration. In addition, as an institutional differentiation to enhance the flexibility and diversity of arbitration, First, The options for "Med-Arb", "Arb-Med" and "Arb-Med-Arb" are selected. second, By revising the Agreement Act [Article 28, 2 (Agreement on Dispute Resolution)], which is to be amended by the National Parties, the revision of the arbitration settlement clause under the Act, to expand the method to resolve arbitration. third, 2017.6.28. Measures to strengthen the status role and activities of expert technical arbitrators under enforcement, such as the Act on Promotion of Interestments Industry and the Information of Enforcement Decree. Fourth, a measure to increase the role of expert technical Arbitrators by enacting laws on the promotion of the arbitration industry is needed. Especially, the establishment of the Act on Promotion of Intermediation Industry should be established as an international arbitration agency for the arbitration system. Therefore, it proposes a study of improvement and differentiation measures in the details and a policy, legal and institutional improvement and legislation.

Monitoring and Risk Assessment of Pesticide Residues in School Foodservice Agricultural Products in Gwangju Metropolitan Area (광주광역시 학교급식 농산물의 잔류농약 모니터링 및 위해평가)

  • Kim, Jinhee;Lee, Davin;Lee, Mingyou;Ryu, Keunyoung;Kim, Taesun;Gang, Gyungri;Seo, Kyewon;Kim, Jung-Beom
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.283-289
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    • 2019
  • This study was performed to monitor the residual pesticides in agricultural products used in school foodservice in the Gwangju metropolitan area. Risk assessment was also carried out based on the amount of agricultural products consumed. A total of 320 agricultural products supplied to schools in Gwangju were analyzed from 2015 to 2017. The pre-treatment and residual pesticide analysis of these products was conducted in accordance with the second method for multi-residue analysis of pesticides in the Korean food code. The hazard index was calculated by dividing the estimated daily intake (EDI) of pesticides by the acceptable daily intake (ADI). The linearity correlation coefficient for the calibration curve was 0.9923 to 1.0000, LOD 0.004 to 0.019 mg/kg, LOQ 0.012 to 0.057 mg/kg, and recovery was 79.1 to 100.2%. Residual pesticides were detected in 18 (5.6%) of 320 agricultural products used for school foodservice, and one sample of sweet potato stem (0.3%) exceeded the maximum residual limit (MRL). The detection frequency for chili peppers and bell peppers was higher than that for other agricultural products. The frequently-detected pesticides were boscalid and acetamiprid. These results showed that residual pesticide management is needed for chili pepper, bell pepper and sweet potato stem among agricultural products supplied to schools. The hazard index of bifenthrin in sweet potato stem showed the highest (64.18%), and the other pesticides were 0.03-8.23%. These results indicated that agricultural products supplied to schools in Gwangju were safe for consumption. To minimize the intake of residual pesticides, it is necessary to not only thoroughly wash agricultural products but to also ensure the expanded supply of products that are pesticide-free.

A Study on the Reproducibility of 3D Shape Model of Garden Cultural Heritage using Photogrammetry with SNS Photographs - Focused on Soswaewon Garden, Damyang(Scenic Site No.40) - (SNS 사진과 사진측량을 이용한 정원유산의 3차원 형상 재현 가능성 연구 - 명승 제40호 담양 소쇄원(潭陽 瀟灑園)을 대상으로 -)

  • Kim, Choong-Sik;Lee, Sang-Ha
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.94-104
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    • 2018
  • This study examined photogrammetric reconstruction techniques that can measure the original form of a cultural property utilizing photographs taken in the past. During the research process, photographs taken in the past as well as photograph on the internet of Soswaewon Garden in Damyang(scenic site 40) were collected and utilized. The landscaping structures of Maedae, Aiyangdan, Ogokmun Wall, and Yakjak and natural scenery Gwangseok, of which photographs can be taken from any 360 degree direction from a close distance or a far distance without any barriers in the way, were selected and tested for the possibility of reproducing three-dimensional shapes. The photography method of 151 landscape photographs (58.6%) from internet portal sites for the aforementioned five landscape subjects containing information on the date the photograph was taken, focal length, and exposure were analyzed. As a result of the analysis, it was revealed that the majority of the photographs tend to focus on important parts of each subject. In addition, we discovered that there are two or three photography methods that internet users preferred in regards to each landscape subject. For the purposes of the experiment, photographs in which a single scene consistently appears for each landscape subject and it was determined that there was a high level of preference related to the photography method were analyzed, and three-dimensional mesh shape model was produced with a photoscan program to analyze the reproducibility of three-dimensional shapes. Based on the results of the reproduction, it was relatively possible to reproduce three-dimensional shapes for artifacts such as Ogukmun wall, Maedae, and Aeyangdan, but it was impossible to reproduce three-dimensional images for natural scenery or an object that has similar texture such as Yakjak and Gwangseok. As a result of experimentation related to the reconstruction of three-dimensional shapes with the photographs taken on site using a photography method similar to that of the photographs selected as previously mentioned, there was success related to reproducing the three-dimensional shapes of Yakjak and Gwangseok, of which it was not possible to do so through the photographs that had been collected previously. In addition, through comparison of past and present images, it was possible to measure the exact sizes as well as discover any changes that have taken place. If past photographs taken by tourists or landscape architects of cultural properties can be obtained, the three-dimensional shapes from a particular period of time can be reproduced. If this technology becomes widespread, it will increase the level of accuracy and reliability in regards to measuring the past shapes of cultural landscape properties and examining any changes to the properties.

Vegetative Propagation and Morphological Characteristics of Amelanchier spp. with High Value as Fruit Tree for Landscaping (정원용 유실수로서 가치가 높은 채진목속(Amelanchier spp.)의 형태적 특성 및 영양번식방법)

  • Kang, Ho Chul;Hwang, Dae Yul;Ha, Yoo Mi
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.111-119
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    • 2018
  • This study was carried out to investigate the growth characteristics and propagation methods of the Korean native Amelanchier asiatica, A. arborea, and A. alnifolia as fruit trees for gardens. Due to the lack of recent research on Amelanchier spp., their superficial classification is still unclear and the names are being used interchangeably. The results are obtained as follows : A. arborea and A. alnifolia were globular type multi-stemmed shrubs. A 20-year-old tree of A. asiatica was 7.8m in height, with a 5.2m crown width, with one trunk. As for the morphological characteristics, leaves of A. asiatica were oblong, with an acuminate of, 6.1cm and 3.6cm width, but A. arborea and A. alnifolia had acute obovate leaves. The leaf size of A. alnifolia was the largest among the three species. The flower size of A. asiatica was bigger than that of A. arborea and A. alnifolia. In addition, its petals and flower clusters were also the largest among the three species. The flowering of A. asiatica initiated on April 21 and then bloomed for a duration of 24 days in Osan, while that of A. arborea and A. alnifolia initiated flowering on April 12 and then bloomed for a duration of 22 days in the same location. The fruit of A. arborea and A. alnifolia were green on May 10~12, it changed into purplish red on May 24~26, and its matured on June 1~3. The duration of fruit persistence of A. arborea and A. alnifolia were 48~50 days. On the other hand, A. asiatica showed greenish fruit on May 20, it became red on September 4, and had fallen by October 3. The fruit size was the largest at 1.03cm of height and 1.12cm of diameter in the A. arborea, followed by the big berry of A. alnifolia and the smallest fruit in the native, A. asiatica. It was difficult to root due to the hardwood cutting of A. arborea at a 40% rate of rooting. In the softwood cutting, the rooting rate of A. arborea was increased by the treatment with concentrated IBA, especially at 5,000 and 7,000ppm. The optimum date for cutting was on June 27, when the rooting rate was more than 80%. The most effective method for rooting of A. arborea was rootone or 7,000 ppm IBA treatment on June 27 softwood cuttings, which showed a rooting rate of over 80%.

A Study on Status Analysis for Advancement iNto Agricultural Sector in Central Asia (중앙아시아 농업분야 진출을 위한 현황분석 - 우즈베키스탄, 카자흐스탄, 키르기즈스탄 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Dong-Jin;Jo, Sung-Ju;Park, Jeong-Woon;Sa, Soo-Jin;Hong, Jung-Sik;Lee, Dong-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of International Agriculture
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.328-338
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    • 2018
  • Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan) is a hot and arid continental climate, with most areas (68%) consisting of barren vegetation, desert, and meadows. The main agricultural areas for crop production include irrigated farmland, non-irrigated farmland, grassland, prairie and mountain. We are experiencing climate change with recent climate variability increasing. Agriculture is one of major economic sectors and provides a means of livings for the rural population of Central Asia, especially the poor. In the past two decades, Central Asia has experienced a high population growth rate, with Kazakhstan at 16.8%, Uzbekistan at 34.5% and Kyrgyzstan at 28.4%. As a major industry, Kazakhstan has the largest share of exports of agricultural products followed by petroleum, mineral resources, steel, and chemicals. Uzbekistan is the fifth largest cotton exporter as well as the sixth largest cotton producer in the world. Kyrgyzstan exports ores, stones, cultured pearls, and minerals. These three countries are rich in mineral resources, agricultural products, and energy resources. However, not only do they have difficulties in economic development due to the weakness of logistics and industrial infrastructure, but they also have imperceptible cooperation and investment among countries due to insufficient research and development. Through this study, we will investigate national outlook, economic indicators, major agricultural products, import and export status, and agricultural technology cooperation status, and study how Korean agricultural industry advances into these countries through SWOT analysis. Through this, we hope to contribute to the basic data of Central Asian studies and cooperation and investment in agriculture in each country. In addition, in order to increase cooperative exchange and investment in these countries, we will prepare a Central Asia logistics hub for the rapidly changing interKorean railroad era.

A Study on World University Evaluation Systems: Focusing on U-Multirank of the European Union (유럽연합의 세계 대학 평가시스템 '유-멀티랭크' 연구)

  • Lee, Tae-Young
    • Korean Journal of Comparative Education
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.187-209
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to highlight the necessity of a conceptual reestablishment of world university evaluations. The hitherto most well-known and validated world university evaluation systems such as Times Higher Education (THE), Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) or Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU) primarily assess big universities with quantitative evaluation indicators and performance results in the rankings. Those Systems have instigated a kind of elitism in higher education and neglect numerous small or local institutions of higher education, instead of providing stakeholders with comprehensive information about the real possibilities of tertiary education so that they can choose an institution that is individually tailored to their needs. Also, the management boards of universities and policymakers in higher education have partly been manipulated by and partly taken advantage of the elitist ranking systems with an economic emphasis, as indicated by research-centered evaluations and industry-university cooperation. To supplement such educational defects and to redress the lack of world university evaluation systems, a new system called 'U-Multirank' has been implemented with the financial support of the European Commission since 2012. U-Multirank was designed and is enforced by an international team of project experts led by CHE(Centre for Higher Education/Germany), CHEPS(Center for Higher Education Policy Studies/Netherlands) and CWTS(Centre for Science and Technology Studies at Leiden University/Netherlands). The significant features of U-Multirank, compared with e.g., THE and ARWU, are its qualitative, multidimensional, user-oriented and individualized assessment methods. Above all, its website and its assessment results, based on a mobile operating system and designed simply for international users, present a self-organized and evolutionary model of world university evaluation systems in the digital and global era. To estimate the universal validity of the redefinition of the world university evaluation system using U-Multirank, an epistemological approach will be used that relies on Edgar Morin's Complexity Theory and Karl Popper's Philosophy of Science.

Cultural Conflicts and Characteristics of Anti-Korean Wave in Southeast Asia: Case Studies of Indonesia and Vietnam (동남아시아 반한류에 나타난 문화적 갈등과 특성: 인도네시아와 베트남을 중심으로)

  • KIM, Su Jeong;KIM, Eun June
    • The Southeast Asian review
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.1-50
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    • 2016
  • This paper aims to investigate the cultural conflicts and characteristics of anti-Korean Wave discourse taken placed among Southeast Asian countries. To do this, it takes Vietnam and Indonesia as the study cases, which have been showing a trend of anti-Korean Wave discourse as well as high popularity of Hallyu. As research methods, the paper analyzes both on-line discourses of anti-Korean Wave and the email audience interviews from both countries. The results show some significant differences between the two countries as well as the similarity that Anti-Korean Wave discourses have been actively produced and disseminated through on-line media. As for Indonesia, the Anti-Korean Wave discourse pivots on the elements clashing between Indonesia's religion and cultural values and Korean consuming culture. According to the Anti-Korean Wave discourse, K-pop contents and entertainers are criticized for damaging the society's morals and cultural identities based on Islamic rules and values. Thus, the sentiment of the Anti-Korean Wave is likely to lead to the cultural nationalism for the sake of their cultural identity. As for Vietnam, anti-Korean Wave discourse mainly consists of issues on enthusiastic K-pop fans' anti-social behaviors and generational conflicts which are presumed attributed as the chief factor of the Anti-Korean Wave. In the Vietnamese discourse, social elites and adults treat the enthusiastic K-pop fans as those who are in need of educational care or psychological therapy. Unlike the Indonesian case, anti-Korean Wave discourse in Vietnam criticized the K-pop and the performer's competence for being cheap sexy and incompetence. They also denounce Korean dramas for their trite, typical story lines, use of excessive emotion, and unrealistic nature. However, the two country's interview participants have in common both acknowledged that rather than considering the Anti-Korean Wave as an issue that needs to be resolved it should be embraced as a natural cultural phenomenon.

Application of diversity of recommender system accordingtouserpreferencechange (사용자 선호도 변화에 따른 추천시스템의 다양성 적용)

  • Na, Hyeyeon;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.67-86
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    • 2020
  • Recommender Systems have been huge influence users and business more and more. Recently the importance of E-commerce has been reached rapid growth greatly in world-wide COVID-19 pandemic. Recommender system is the center of E-commerce lively. Top ranked E-commerce managers mentioned that recommender systems have a major influence on customer's purchase such as about 50% of Netflix, Amazon sales from their recommender systems. Most algorithms have been focused on improving accuracy of recommender system regardless of novelty, diversity, serendipity etc. Recommender systems with only high accuracy cannot satisfy business long-term profit because of generating sales polarization. In addition, customers do not experience enjoyment of shopping from only focusing accuracy recommender system because customer's preference is changed constantly. Therefore, recommender systems with various values need to be developed for user's high satisfaction. Reranking is the most useful methodology to realize diversity of recommender system. In this paper, diversity of recommender system is represented through constructing high similarity with users who have different preference using each user's purchased item's category algorithm. It is distinguished from past research approach which is changing the algorithm of recommender system without user's diversity preference level. We tried to discover user's diversity preference level and observed the results how the effect was different according to user's diversity preference level. In addition, graph-based recommender system was used to show diversity through user's network, not collaborative filtering. In this paper, Amazon Grocery and Gourmet Food data was used because the low-involvement product, such as habitual product, foods, low-priced goods etc., had high probability to show customer's diversity. First, a bipartite graph with users and items simultaneously is constructed to make graph-based recommender system. However, each users and items unipartite graph also need to be established to show diversity of recommender system. The weight of each unipartite graph has played crucial role changing Jaccard Distance of item's category. We can observe two important results from the user's unipartite network. First, the user's diversity preference level is observed from the network and second, dissimilar users can be discovered in the user's network. Through the research process, diversity of recommender system is presented highly with small accuracy loss and optimalization for higher accuracy is possible controlling diversity ratio. This paper has three important theoretical points. First, this research expands recommender system research for user's satisfaction with various values. Second, the graph-based recommender system is developed newly. Third, the evaluation indicator of diversity is made for diversity. In addition, recommender systems are useful for corporate profit practically and this paper has contribution on business closely. Above all, business long-term profit can be improved using recommender system with diversity and the recommender system can provide right service according to user's diversity level. Lastly, the corporate selling low-involvement products have great effect based on the results.

Mechanism of steel pipe reinforcement grouting based on tunnel field measurement results (터널 현장 계측결과를 통한 강관보강 그라우팅의 거동 메커니즘)

  • Shin, Hyunkang;Jung, Hyuksang;Lee, Yong-joo;Kim, Nag-young;Ko, Sungil
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.133-149
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to report the behavioral mechanism of steel pipe reinforcement grouting, which is being actively used to ensure the stability of the excavation surface during tunnel excavation, based on measurements taken at the actual site. After using a 12 m steel pipe attached with a shape displacement meter and a strain gauge to reinforce the actual tunnel surface, behavioral characteristics were identified by analyzing the measured deformation and stress of the steel pipe. Taking into account that the steel pipes were overlapped every 6 m, the measured data up to 7 m of excavation were used. In addition, the behavioral characteristics of the steel pipe reinforcement according to the difference in strength were also examined by applying steel pipes with different allowable stresses (SGT275 and SGT550). As a result of analyzing the behavior of steel pipes for 7 hours after the first excavation for 1 m and before proceeding with the next excavation, the stress redistribution due to the arching effect caused by the excavation relaxation load was observed. As excavation proceeded by 1 m, the excavated section exhibited the greatest deformation during excavation of 4 to 6 m due to the stress distribution of the three-dimensional relaxation load, and deformation and stress were generated in the steel pipe installed in the ground ahead of the tunnel face. As a result of comparing the behavior of SGT275 steel pipe (yield strength 275 MPa) and SGT550 steel pipe (yield strength 550 MPa), the difference in the amount of deformation was up to 18 times and the stress was up to 12 times; the stronger the steel pipe, the better it was at responding to the relaxation load. In this study, the behavior mechanism of steel pipe reinforcement grouting in response to the arching effect due to the relaxation load was identified based on the measured data during the actual tunnel excavation, and the results were reported.