• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.66 no.7
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• pp.1001-1006
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• 2017

In this study the NARX was proposed as a novel approach to forecast electric load more accurately. The NARX model is a recurrent dynamic network. ISO-NewEngland dataset was employed to evaluate and validate the proposed approach. Obtained results were compared with NAR network and some other popular statistical methods. This study showed that the proposed approach can be applied to forecast electric load and NARX has high potential to be utilized in modeling dynamic systems effectively.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.51 no.3
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• pp.702-708
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• 2019

This paper deals with break size estimation of loss of coolant accidents (LOCA) using a nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) neural network. Previous studies used static approaches, requiring time-integrated parameters and independent firing algorithms. NARX neural network is able to directly deal with time-dependent signals for dynamic estimation of break sizes in real-time. The case studied is a LOCA in the primary system of Bushehr nuclear power plant (NPP). In this study, number of hidden layers, neurons, feedbacks, inputs, and training duration of transients are selected by performing parametric studies to determine the network architecture with minimum error. The developed NARX neural network is trained by error back propagation algorithm with different break sizes, covering 5% -100% of main coolant pipeline area. This database of LOCA scenarios is developed using RELAP5 thermal-hydraulic code. The results are satisfactory and indicate feasibility of implementing NARX neural network for break size estimation in NPPs. It is able to find a general solution for break size estimation problem in real-time, using a limited number of training data sets. This study has been performed in the framework of a research project, aiming to develop an appropriate accident management support tool for Bushehr NPP.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.21-23
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• 2005

NARX(Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous input) neural network was used for prediction of nuclear reactor behavior which was influenced by control rods in short-term period and also by xenon and boron in long-term period in load following operations. The developed model was designed to predict reactor power, xenon worth and axial offset with different burnup rates when control rod and boron were adjusted in load following operations. Data of UCN 3 were collected by ONED94 code. The test results presented exhibit the capability of the NARX neural network model to capture the long term and short term dynamics of the reactor core and seems to be utilized as a handy tool for the use of a plant simulation.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2011.10a
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• pp.275-280
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• 2011

Due to high-speed of trains, the track deformation increases rapidly and may lead to track irregularities causing the track stability problem. To secure the track stability, the continual inspection on track irregularities is required. The paper presents a methodology for identifying track irregularity using the NARX neural network considering non-linearity in the train structural system. A simulation study has been carried out to examine the proposed method. Acceleration time history data measured at a bogie were re-sampled to every 0.25m track irregularity. In the simulation study, two sets of measured data were simulated. The second data set was obtained by a train with 10% more mass than the one for the first data set. The first set of simulated data was used to train the series-parallel mode of NARX neural network. Then, the track irregularities at the second time period are identified by using the measured acceleration data. The closeness of the identified track irregularity to the actual one is evaluated by PSD and RMSE.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.1103-1120
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• 2015

A self-sensing magnetorheological (MR) damper with embedded piezoelectric force sensor has recently been devised to facilitate real-time close-looped control of structural vibration in a simple and reliable manner. The development and characterization of the self-sensing MR damper are presented based on experimental work, which demonstrates its reliable force sensing and controllable damping capabilities. With the use of experimental data acquired under harmonic loading, a nonparametric dynamic model is formulated to portray the nonlinear behaviors of the self-sensing MR damper based on NARX modeling and neural network techniques. The Bayesian regularization is adopted in the network training procedure to eschew overfitting problem and enhance generalization. Verification results indicate that the developed NARX network model accurately describes the forward dynamics of the self-sensing MR damper and has superior prediction performance and generalization capability over a Bouc-Wen parametric model.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers D
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• v.54 no.9
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• pp.567-569
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• 2005

NARX(Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous input) neural network was used for prediction of nuclear reactor behavior which was influenced by control rods in short-term period and also by the concentration of xenon and boron in long-term period in load following operations. The developed model was designed to predict reactor power, xenon worth and axial offset with different burnup states when control rods and boron were adjusted in load following operations. Data of the Korea Next Generation PWR were collected by ONED94 code. The test results presented exhibit the capability of the NARX neural network model to capture the long term and short term dynamics of the reactor core and the developed model seems to be utilized as a handy tool for the use of a plant simulation.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.40 no.3
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• pp.303-314
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• 2020

The hydrological characteristics of watersheds and hydraulic systems of urban and river floods are highly nonlinear and contain uncertain variables. Therefore, the predicted time series of rainfall-runoff data in flood analysis is not suitable for existing neural networks. To overcome the challenge of prediction, a NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Model), which is a kind of recurrent dynamic neural network that maximizes the learning ability of a neural network, was applied to forecast a flood in real-time. At the same time, NARX has the characteristics of a time-delay neural network. In this study, a hydrological model was constructed for the Taehwa river basin, and the NARX time-delay parameter was adjusted 10 to 120 minutes. As a result, we found that precise prediction is possible as the time-delay parameter was increased by confirming that the NSE increased from 0.530 to 0.988 and the RMSE decreased from 379.9 ㎥/s to 16.1 ㎥/s. The machine learning technique with NARX will contribute to the accurate prediction of flow rate with an unexpected extreme flood condition.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.19-28
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• 2015

The purpose of this research is reconstruction of annual precipitation based on Tree-ring series at Seorak mountain and examine its effectiveness. To do so we performed nonlinear time series characteristics test of Tree-ring series and reconstructed annual precipitation of Gangneung from 1687 to 1911 using Artificial neural network and Nonlinear autoregressive exogeneous input (NARX) model which reflects stochastic properties. As a result, Tree-ring series at Seorak Mountain shows nonlinear time series property and reconstructed annual precipitation series drawn from NARX is similar in statistical characteristics of observed annual time series.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.809-817
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• 2020

In the design and development process of Small-Sat power distribution and transmission module, the stability of dynamic resources was evaluated by a deep learning algorithm. The requirements for the stability evaluation consisted of the power distribution function of the power distribution module and demand module to the SAR radar in Small-Sat. To verify the performance of the switching power components constituting the power module PDM, the reliability was verified using a dynamic neural network. The adoption material of deep learning for reliability verification is the power distribution function of the payload to the power supplied from the small satellite main body. Modeling targets for verifying the performance of this function are output voltage (slew rate control), voltage error, and load power characteristics. First, to this end, the Coefficient Structure area was defined by modeling, and PCB modules were fabricated to compare stability and reliability. Second, Levenberg-Marquare based Two-Way NARX neural network Sigmoid Transfer was used as a deep learning algorithm.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.73-82
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• 2019

Recently, as the occurrence frequency of sudden floods due to climate change increased, the flood damage on riverside social infrastructures was extended so that there has been a threat of overflow. Therefore, a rapid prediction of potential flooding in riverside social infrastructure is necessary for administrators. However, most current flood forecasting models including hydraulic model have limitations which are the high accuracy of numerical results but longer simulation time. To alleviate such limitation, data driven models using artificial neural network have been widely used. However, there is a limitation that the existing models can not consider the time-series parameters. In this study the water surface elevation of the Hangang River bridge was predicted using the NARX model considering the time-series parameter. And the results of the ANN and RNN models are compared with the NARX model to determine the suitability of NARX model. Using the 10-year hydrological data from 2009 to 2018, 70% of the hydrological data were used for learning and 15% was used for testing and evaluation respectively. As a result of predicting the water surface elevation after 3 hours from the Hangang River bridge in 2018, the ANN, RNN and NARX models for RMSE were 0.20 m, 0.11 m, and 0.09 m, respectively, and 0.12 m, 0.06 m, and 0.05 m for MAE, and 1.56 m, 0.55 m and 0.10 m for peak errors respectively. By analyzing the error of the prediction results considering the time-series parameters, the NARX model is most suitable for predicting water surface elevation. This is because the NARX model can learn the trend of the time series data and also can derive the accurate prediction value even in the high water surface elevation prediction by using the hyperbolic tangent and Rectified Linear Unit function as an activation function. However, the NARX model has a limit to generate a vanishing gradient as the sequence length becomes longer. In the future, the accuracy of the water surface elevation prediction will be examined by using the LSTM model.