• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.341-354
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• 2018

The one of the principles described in ICH E9 is that only results obtained from pre-specified statistical methods in a protocol are regarded as confirmatory evidence. However, in multi-regional clinical trials, even when results obtained from pre-specified statistical methods in protocol are significant, it does not guarantee that the test treatment is approved by regional regulatory agencies. In other words, there is no so-called global approval, and each regional regulatory agency makes its own decision in the face of the same set of data from a multi-regional clinical trial. Under this situation, there are two natural methods a regional regulatory agency can use to estimate the treatment effect in a particular region. The first method is to use the overall treatment estimate, which is to extrapolate the overall result to the region of interest. The second method is to use regional treatment estimate. If the treatment effect is completely identical across all regions, it is obvious that the overall treatment estimator is more efficient than the regional treatment estimator. However, it is not possible to confirm statistically that the treatment effect is completely identical in all regions. Furthermore, some magnitude of regional differences within the range of clinical relevance may naturally exist for various reasons due to, for instance, intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Nevertheless, if the magnitude of regional differences is relatively small, a conventional method to estimate the treatment effect in the region of interest is to extrapolate the overall result to that region. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects produced by this type of extrapolation via estimations, followed by hypothesis testing of the treatment effect in the region of interest. This paper is written from the viewpoint of regional regulatory agencies.

• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.247-261
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• 2018

The objective of this paper is to compare probabilistic temperature forecasts from different regional and global ensemble prediction systems over PyeongChang area. A statistical post-processing method is used to take into account combination and calibration of forecasts from different numerical prediction systems, laying greater weight on ensemble model that exhibits the best performance. Observations for temperature were obtained from the 30 stations in PyeongChang and three different ensemble forecasts derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Ensemble Prediction System for Global and Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System that were obtained between 1 May 2014 and 18 March 2017. Prior to applying to the post-processing methods, reliability analysis was conducted to identify the statistical consistency of ensemble forecasts and corresponding observations. Then, ensemble model output statistics and bias-corrected methods were applied to each raw ensemble model and then proposed weighted combination of ensembles. The results showed that the proposed methods provide improved performances than raw ensemble mean. In particular, multi-model forecast based on ensemble model output statistics was superior to the bias-corrected forecast in terms of deterministic prediction.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.267-279
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• 2021

A regression with multi-dimensional responses is quite common nowadays in the so-called big data era. In such regression, to relieve the curse of dimension due to high-dimension of responses, the dimension reduction of predictors is essential in analysis. Sufficient dimension reduction provides effective tools for the reduction, but there are few sufficient dimension reduction methodologies for multivariate regression. To fill this gap, we newly propose two fused slice-based inverse regression methods. The proposed approaches are robust to the numbers of clusters or slices and improve the estimation results over existing methods by fusing many kernel matrices. Numerical studies are presented and are compared with existing methods. Real data analysis confirms practical usefulness of the proposed methods.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.499-512
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• 2022

Intervention measures have been implemented worldwide to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. The COVID-19 outbreak has occured in several waves of infection, so this paper is divided into three groups, namely those countries who have passed the pandemic period, those countries who are still experiencing a single-wave pandemic, and those countries who are experiencing a multi-wave pandemic. The purpose of this study is to develop a multi-wave Richards model with several changepoint detection methods so as to obtain more accurate prediction results, especially for the multi-wave case. We investigated epidemiological trends in different countries from January 2020 to October 2021 to determine the temporal changes during the epidemic with respect to the intervention strategy used. In this article, we adjust the daily cumulative epidemiological data for COVID-19 using the logistic growth model and the multi-wave Richards curve development model. The changepoint detection methods used include the interpolation method, the Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) method, and the Binary Segmentation (BS) method. The results of the analysis using 9 countries show that the Richards model development can be used to analyze multi-wave data using changepoint detection so that the initial data used for prediction on the last wave can be determined precisely. The changepoint used is the coincident changepoint generated by the PELT and BS methods. The interpolation method is only used to find out how many pandemic waves have occurred in given a country. Several waves have been identified and can better describe the data. Our results can find the peak of the pandemic and when it will end in each country, both for a single-wave pandemic and a multi-wave pandemic.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.639-645
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• 2009

Fractional Brwonian motion(fBm) has properties of behaving tails and exhibiting long memory while remaining Gaussian. In particular, it is well known that interest rates show some long memories and non-Markovian. We present no aribitrage condition for HJM model under the multi-factor fBm reflecting the long range dependence in the interest rate model.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.358-365
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• 1995

This paper presents another system of multi-level skip-lot sampling plan, which can directly retum to normal inspection from any skpping inspection level when a sudden shift for the worse in the process mean occurs. All the other properties of the proposed sampling plan are similar to those of the Choi's(1993) plan. The formula of the poerating characteristic function for the proposed n-level skip-lot sampling plan is derived. Sone poerating characteristic properties for the proposed plan are graphically compared with those of the Choi's plan.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.687-698
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• 2000

An identification method is proposed in order to detect more than one outlying cells in multi-way contingency tables. The iterative proportional fitting method is applied to get expected values of several suspected outlying cells. Since the proposed method uses minimal sufficient statistics under quasi log-linear models, expected counts of outlying cells could be estimated under any hierarchical log-linear models. This method is an extension of the backwards-stepping method of Simonoff(1988) and requires les iteration to identify outlying cells.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.321-328
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• 2018

In clinical trials with repeated measurements, the time-averaged difference (TAD) may provide a more powerful evaluation of treatment efficacy than the rate of changes over time when the treatment effect has rapid onset and repeated measurements continue across an extended period after a maximum effect is achieved (Overall and Doyle, Controlled Clinical Trials, 15, 100-123, 1994). The sample size formula has been investigated by many researchers for the evaluation of TAD in two treatment groups. For the evaluation of TAD in multi-arm trials, Zhang and Ahn (Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 58, 283-291, 2013) and Lou et al. (Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods, 46, 11204-11213, 2017b) developed the sample size formulas for continuous outcomes and count outcomes, respectively. In this paper, we derive a sample size formula to evaluate the TAD of the repeated binary outcomes in multi-arm trials using the generalized estimating equation approach. This proposed sample size formula accounts for various correlation structures and missing patterns (including a mixture of independent missing and monotone missing patterns) that are frequently encountered by practitioners in clinical trials. We conduct simulation studies to assess the performance of the proposed sample size formula under a wide range of design parameters. The results show that the empirical powers and the empirical Type I errors are close to nominal levels. We illustrate our proposed method using a clinical trial example.

• Journal of Korean society of Dental Hygiene
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.287-295
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• 2019

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors affecting subjective oral symptoms according to the gender of youth from multi-cultural families in Korea using data from the 14th (2018) Korean Youth Health Behavior Survey. Methods: The independent variables used in this study consisted of gender and sweet drink intake. The dependent variable was experience of subjective oral symptoms. Compensation variables consisted of general characteristics of school type, academic performance, economic status, drinking status, smoking status, and number of tooth brushings day before. The subjects of the study were 835 children of multi-cultural families whose parents were foreigners. All statistical analyses were performed by complex samples cross-tabulation analysis and complex samples logistic regression analysis. Statistical analysis was performed using the PASW statistical package 21.0 (Statistical Packages for Social Science Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). A significance level of 0.05 was used for statistical significance. Results: The composite sample logistic regression analysis showed that there was a statistically significant difference between gender and intake of sweet drinks in experience of subjective oral symptoms. Conclusions: These results suggest that factors influence subjective oral symptoms in Korean multi-cultural adolescents. Therefore, I hope that they will be used as basic data for the introduction and development of a customized oral health education program for improving oral health of multi-cultural adolescents.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.567-576
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• 2006

In this paper, we applied the multiblock dimension reduction methods to the classification of tumor based on microarray gene expressions data. This procedure involves clustering selected genes, multiblock dimension reduction and classification using linear discrimination analysis and quadratic discrimination analysis.