• Water Engineering Research
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.101-109
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• 2004

Aggregating information by combining forecasts from two or more forecasting methods is an alternative to using forecasts from just a single method to improve forecast accuracy. This paper describes the development and use of a monthly inflow forecast model based on an optimal linear combination (OLC) of forecasts derived from naive, persistence, and Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) forecasts. Using the cross-validation technique, the OLC model made 1-month ahead probabilistic forecasts for the Chungju multi-purpose dam inflows for 15 years. For most of the verification months, the skill associated with the OLC forecast was superior to those drawn from the individual forecast techniques. Therefore this study demonstrates that OLC can improve the accuracy of the ESP forecast, especially during the dry season. This study also examined the value of the OLC forecasts in reservoir operations. Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) derived the optimal operating policy for the Chungju multi-purpose dam operation and the derived policy was simulated using the 15-year observed inflows. The simulation results showed the SDP model that updated its probability from the new OLC forecast provided more efficient operation decisions than the conventional SDP model.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.59-69
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• 2013

The numerical simulations were performed to analyze the advection-diffusion processes of dredging-induced turbidity plume using RMA2 and RMA4 models in Bunam reservoir, Seosan, Chungnam. Field survey was also performed to measure the turbidity using the multi water quality monitoring system (YSI6600EDS). In the field survey, the vertical and horizontal distributions of the turbidity were measured during the dredging operation in Bunam reservoir. RMA2 model was used to simulate the velocity distributions in both the whole domain and the 2nd part of Bunam reservoir. RMA4 model was also used to simulate the concentration distribution in only the 2nd part of Bunam reservoir, where the dredging work were conducted. The comparison of the simulation results with the field data for the advection-diffusion of the turbidity plume using the concentration ratio concepts shows that the numerical model can be applied to analyze the environmental impact of dredging works.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.67-75
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• 2004

In this study, real-time forecasting model(Neural Dam Inflow Forecasting Model; NDIFM) based on neural network to predict the dam inflow which is occurred by flood runoff is developed and applied to check its availability for the operation of multi-purpose reservoir Developed model Is applied to predict the flood Inflow on dam Nam-Gang in Nak-dong river basin where the rate of flood control dependent on reservoir operation is high. The input data for this model are average rainfall data composed of mean areal rainfall of upstream basin from dam location, observed inflow data, and predicted inflow data. As a result of the simulation for flood inflow forecasting, it is found that NDIFM-I is the best predictive model for real-time operation. In addition, the results of forecasting used on NDIFM-II and NDIFM-III are not bad and these models showed wide range of applicability for real-time forecasting. Consequently, if the quality of observed hydrological data is improved, it is expected that the neural network model which is black-box model can be utilized for real-time flood forecasting rather than conceptual models of which physical parameter is complex.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.206-206
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• 2021

The necessity for appropriate management of water resources infrastructures such as reservoirs, levees, and dikes is increasing due to unexpected hydro-climate irregularities and rising water demands. To meet this need, past studies have focused on advancing theoretical optimization algorithms such as nonlinear programming, dynamic programming (DP), and genetic programming. Yet, the optimally derived theoretical solutions are limited to be directly implemented in making release decisions in the real-world systems for a variety of reasons. This study first aims to comparatively analyze the two prominent optimization methods, DP and evolutionary multi-objective direct policy search (EMODPS), under historical inflow series using K-fold cross validation. A total of six optimization models are formed each with a specific formulation. Then, one of the optimization models was coupled with the actual zone-based hedging rule that has been adopted in practice. The proposed methodology was applied to Boryeong Dam located in South Korea with conflicting objectives between supply and demand. As a result, the EMODPS models demonstrated a better performance than the DP models in terms of proximity to the ideal. Moreover, the incorporation of the real-world policy with the optimal solutions improved in all indices in terms of the supply side, while widening the range of the trade-off between frequency and magnitude measured in the sides of demand. The results from this study once again highlight the necessity of closing the gap between the theoretical solutions with the real-world implementable policies.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.45 no.4
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• pp.361-371
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• 2012

For a basin with existing reservoirs, the necessity of additional water demands has been proposed, as well as a reevaluation of existing reservoir yield has been proposed. The objective of this study is to reevaluate a multipurpose reservoir yield and to assess the possibility of additional water supply according to increase of downstream water demands. Andong and Imha Reservoirs are selected for reevaluation. The standard reservoir operation rule model and the HEC-ResSim model were used for reservoir simulation for 30 years (1979~2008). In this study, water supply reliability was set up as 96.7% and 95.0% with yearly and monthly evaluating unit. In case of 95% water supply reliability with yearly evaluating unit, water supply capability of Andong reservoir was evaluated as 893MCM and water supply capability of Imha reservoir was evaluated as 382MCM, and that results showed that water yields for both reservoirs are less than the original designed yields.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.38 no.9 s.158
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• pp.737-746
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• 2005

Optimization is a process that searches an optimal solution to obtain maximum or minimum value of an objective function. Many researchers have focused on effective search algorithms for the optimum but few researches were interested in establishing the objective function. This study compares two approaches for the objective function: one allows a tradeoff among the objectives and the other does not allow a tradeoff by assigning weights for the absolute priority between the objectives. An optimization model using sampling stochastic dynamic programming was applied to these two objective functions and the resulting optimal policies were compared. As a result, the objective function with no tradeoff provides a decision making process that matches practical reservoir operations than that with a tradeoff allowed. Therefore, it is more reasonable to establish the objective function with no a tradeoff among the objectives for multi-purpose dam operation plan in Korea.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.12
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• pp.971-980
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• 2016

In general, efficient operation of sediment sluicing is important in economical aspect. In this study, the efficiency of sediment sluicing by various operation at water surface elevation on multi-functional weirs were analyzed using Nays2DH, and we focused on the Dalsung weir at Nakdong river. The results of this study shows that, the same number of flushing channels and water gates were developed due to sediment sluicing, and sediment deposition occurred in upstream region of flushing channels. Also, the sediment sluicing efficiency increased by approximately 4.6% and sedimentation decreased by approximately 4.5% at EL. 14.5 m for operations on water surface elevation exceeding EL. 14.0 m. The mitigation of reservoir sedimentation and extension of maintenance dredging period are possible if the variation of sediment sluicing efficiency in various operation at water surface elevation during flood season are considered.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.67-79
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• 2010

Korea water resources corporation (K-Water) has developed the real-time water resources management system for the Nakdong and the Geum River basin to efficiently operate multi-purpose dams in the basins. This study has extended to the Han River basin for providing an effective ending target storage of a month to the real-time water resources management system using Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SSDP), consequently increasing the efficiency of the reservoir system. The optimization model were developed for three reservoirs, named Soyang, Chungju, and Hwacheon, with high priority in terms of the amounts of effective capacity and water supply for the basin. The number of storage state variable for each dam to set an optimization problem has been assigned from the results of sensitivity analysis. Compared with the K-water operating policy with the target water supply elevations, the optimization model suggested in this study showed that the shortfalls are decreased by 37.22 MCM/year for the required water demands in the basin, even increasing 171 GWh in hydro electronic power generation. In addition, the result of a reservoir operating system during the drawdown period applied to real situation demonstrates that additional releases for water quality or hydro electronic power generation would be possible during the drawdown period between 2007 and 2008. On the basis of these simulation results, the applicability of the SSDP model and the reservoir operating system is proved. Therefore, the more efficient reservoir operation can be achieved if the reservoir operating system is extended further to other Korean basins.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.27-42
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• 1984

The complexity and expensiveness of water resources projects have made optimum operation and design by computer-based techniques of increasing interest in recent years. Water resources problems in real world need many decisions under numerous constraints. In addition there are nonlinearities in the state and return function. This mathematical and technical troublesome must be overcome so that the optimum operation polices are determined. Then traditional dynamic optimization method encountered two major-cruxes: variable discretization and appearance of constraints. Even several recent methods which based on the Differential Dynamic Programming(DDP) have some difficulties in handling of constraints. This paper has presented New DDP which is applicable to multi-reservoir control. It is intended that the method suggested here is superior to abailable alternatives. This belief is supported by analysis and experiments(New DDT does not suffer course of dimensionality and requires no discretization and is able to handle easily all constraints nonlinearity).

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.501-510
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• 2002

During drought or impending drought period, the reservoir operation method is required to incorporate demand-management policy rule. The objective of this study is focused to the development of demand reduction rule by incorporating hedging-effect for a single reservoir system. To improve the performance measure of the objective function and constraints, we could incorporate three risk performance criteria proposed by Hashimoto et al. (1982) by mixed-integer programming and also incorporate successive linear programming to overcome nonlinear hedging term from the previous study(Shih et al., 1994). To verify this model, this hedging rule was applied to the Daechung multi-purpose dam. As a result, we could evaluate optimal hedging parameters and monthly trigger volumes.