• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.161-164
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• 2006

The sales of consumer durables are composed of first time purchases and replacement purchases. Since the sales for most mature durable products are dominated by replacement sales, it is necessary to develop a model incorporating replacement component of sales in order to forecast total sales accurately. Several single product diffusion models incorporating replacement demand have been developed, but research addressing the multi-product diffusion models has not considered replacement sales. In this paper, we propose a model based on consumer choice behavior that simultaneously captures the diffusion and the replacement process for multi-product relationships. The proposed model enables the division of replacement sales into repurchase by previous users and transition purchase by users of different products. As a result, the model allows the partitioning of the total sales according to the customer groups (first-time buyers, repurchase buyers, and transition buyers), which allows companies to develop their production and marketing plans based on their customer mix. We apply the proposed model to the Korean automobile market, and compare the fitting and forecasting performance with other Bass-type multi-product models.

• Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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• 2003.02a
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• pp.173-190
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• 2003

Demand forecasting is essential in establishing national and corporate strategy as well as the management of their resource. We forecast demand for multi-generation product using discrete choice model combining diffusion model The discrete choice model generally captures consumers'valuation of the product's qualify in the framework of a cross-sectional analysis. We incorporate diffusion effects into a discrete choice model in order to capture the dynamics of demand for multi-generation products. As an empirical application, we forecast demand for worldwide DRAM (dynamic random access memory) and each of its generations from 1999 to 2005. In so doing, we use the method of 'Technological Forecasting'for DRAM Density and Price of the generations based on the Moore's law and learning by doing, respectively. Since we perform our analysis at the market level, we adopt the inversion routine in using the discrete choice model and find that our model performs well in explaining the current market situation, and also in forecasting new product diffusion in multi-generation product markets.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.103-117
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• 1988

Replacement demand plays an important role to forecast the total demand of durable goods, while most of the diffusion models deal with only adoption data, namely initial purchase demand. This paper presents replacement demand forecasting models incorporating repurchase rate, multi-ownership, and dynamic product life to complement the existing diffusion models. The performance of replacement demand forecasting models are analyzed and practical guidelines for the application of the models are suggested when life distribution data or adoption data are not available.

• International Journal of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.279-293
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• 2023

This study investigates network effects to measure how strongly the early adopters affect the brand choice of the potential consumer. By using the Gumbel-Hougaard (GH) copula, this study checks the magnitude of network effects varied from country to country. To consider consumer heterogeneity and network effects in the growth market, this study proposes the multi-brand Gamma/Shifted-Gompertz (m-G/SG) model based on the GH copula. Out of eighteen Western European cellular phone market data and South Korea smartphone data sets, the m-G/SG model provides an improvement in the estimation accuracy over the Libai, Muller, and Peres model. The results show that network effects enhance (i) the polarization of brand choice probabilities as time elapses; (ii) the dominance of the more preferred and the earlier entered brand; and (iii) the deceleration of category-level diffusion. Potential followers can analyze their relationship with earlier entrants through the m-G/SG model and also establish an optimal market entry strategy.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.14 no.spc
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• pp.1256-1284
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• 2011

Although a existing consumer market have been studied in depth in the new technology product market, the market research on the overall level of value chain to consist of consumers, distributors, and manufacturers is weak. Therefore, in this paper consumers' purchase of new technology products were simulated and analyzed by a consumer selection model and a multi-agent model, which consist of consumers, distributors and manufacturers. Our research was focused on customer preference study in new technology product market by using conjoint analysis and discrete choice model. And changes in consumer behavior based on adoption of new technologies and offering of incentives were analyzed by ABM (Agent-based Model). In conclusion, the market share of technology products was risen when provision of incentives corresponding to inventory level and demand for new technology products occurred at the same time.

• Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.141-159
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• 2005

In this research, we develope an estimation method for the estimation of the market potential in the new service (or product) diffusion model. The developed method is based on the ordered response model which can effectively incorporate the survey result of the multi-point scale intention for subscription as well as the responder's characteristics, the characteristics & attitudes of the related service. We also apply the developed method to an estimation of the market potential of the digital multimedia broadcasting (DMB) service. As a result, an optimistic and a pessimistic estimates of DMB market potential are 41.10% and 14.83% of the cellular subscribers respectively.

• Journal of Information Management
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.1-16
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• 2006

Due to the dramatic development of the Internet, the ICT market has changed from a voice based services to data based services. Substitution and complementary dynamism has emerged from communication technology services such as the Internet, mobile phone, and telephone. This paper analyses diffusion patterns of communication technologies such as the Internet, cellular phones, and telephones in different country groups. We estimate modified logistic growth model using time series data for the years 1975-2002. As a result, it is possible to categorize country groups according to the patterns of diffusions. This research creates essential information to forecast demand for new services based on incumbent services as well as provide information on strategies for entering the network industry.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.1-29
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• 2008

The objective of our study is to provide an exploratory model for forecasting sales take-off timing of a product in the context of multi-national markets. We evaluated the usefulness of key predictors such as multiple market information, product attributes, price, and sales for the forecasting of sales take-off timing by applying the suggested model to monthly sales data for PDP and LCD TV provided by a Korean electronics manufacturer. We have found some important results for global companies from the empirical analysis. Firstly, innovation coefficients obtained from sales data of a particular product in other markets can provide the most useful information on sales take-off timing of the product in a target market. However, imitation coefficients obtained from the sales data of a particular product in the target market and other markets are not useful for sales take-off timing of the product in the target market. Secondly, price and product attributes significantly influence on take-off timing. It is noteworthy that the ratio of the price of the target product to the average price of the market is more important than the price ofthe target product itself. Lastly, the cumulative sales of the product are still useful for the prediction of sales take-off timing. Our model outperformed the average model in terms of hit-rate.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.53-84
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• 2013

With rapid development of ICT (Information and Communications Technology), new services by the convergence of mobile network and application technology began to appear. Today, smart phone with new ICT convergence network capabilities is exceedingly popular and very useful as a new tool for the development of business opportunities. Previous studies based on Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) suggested critical factors, which should be considered for acquiring new customers and maintaining existing users in smart phone market. However, they had a limitation to focus on technology acceptance, not value based approach. Prior studies on customer's adoption of electronic utilities like smart phone product showed that the antecedents such as the perceived benefit and the perceived sacrifice could explain the causality between what is perceived and what is acquired over diverse contexts. So, this research conceptualizes perceived value as a trade-off between perceived benefit and perceived sacrifice, and we need to research the perceived value to grasp user's continuous intention to use of smart phone. The purpose of this study is to investigate the structured relationship between benefit (quality, usefulness, playfulness) and sacrifice (technicality, cost, security risk) of smart phone users, perceived value, and continuous intention to use. In addition, this study intends to analyze the differences between two subgroups of smart phone users by the degree of personal innovativeness. Personal innovativeness could help us to understand the moderating effect between how perceptions are formed and continuous intention to use smart phone. This study conducted survey through e-mail, direct mail, and interview with smart phone users. Empirical analysis based on 330 respondents was conducted in order to test the hypotheses. First, the result of hypotheses testing showed that perceived usefulness among three factors of perceived benefit has the highest positive impact on perceived value, and then followed by perceived playfulness and perceived quality. Second, the result of hypotheses testing showed that perceived cost among three factors of perceived sacrifice has significantly negative impact on perceived value, however, technicality and security risk have no significant impact on perceived value. Also, the result of hypotheses testing showed that perceived value has significant direct impact on continuous intention to use of smart phone. In this regard, marketing managers of smart phone company should pay more attention to improve task efficiency and performance of smart phone, including rate systems of smart phone. Additionally, to test the moderating effect of personal innovativeness, this research conducted multi-group analysis by the degree of personal innovativeness of smart phone users. In a group with high level of innovativeness, perceived usefulness has the highest positive influence on perceived value than other factors. Instead, the analysis for a group with low level of innovativeness showed that perceived playfulness was the highest positive factor to influence perceived value than others. This result of the group with high level of innovativeness explains that innovators and early adopters are able to cope with higher level of cost and risk, and they expect to develop more positive intentions toward higher performance through the use of an innovation. Also, hedonic behavior in the case of the group with low level of innovativeness aims to provide self-fulfilling value to the users, in contrast to utilitarian perspective, which aims to provide instrumental value to the users. However, with regard to perceived sacrifice, both groups in general showed negative impact on perceived value. Also, the group with high level of innovativeness had less overall negative impact on perceived value compared to the group with low level of innovativeness across all factors. In both group with high level of innovativeness and with low level of innovativeness, perceived cost has the highest negative influence on perceived value than other factors. Instead, the analysis for a group with high level of innovativeness showed that perceived technicality was the positive factor to influence perceived value than others. However, the analysis for a group with low level of innovativeness showed that perceived security risk was the second high negative factor to influence perceived value than others. Unlike previous studies, this study focuses on influencing factors on continuous intention to use of smart phone, rather than considering initial purchase and adoption of smart phone. First, perceived value, which was used to identify user's adoption behavior, has a mediating effect among perceived benefit, perceived sacrifice, and continuous intention to use smart phone. Second, perceived usefulness has the highest positive influence on perceived value, while perceived cost has significant negative influence on perceived value. Third, perceived value, like prior studies, has high level of positive influence on continuous intention to use smart phone. Fourth, in multi-group analysis by the degree of personal innovativeness of smart phone users, perceived usefulness, in a group with high level of innovativeness, has the highest positive influence on perceived value than other factors. Instead, perceived playfulness, in a group with low level of innovativeness, has the highest positive factor to influence perceived value than others. This result shows that early adopters intend to adopt smart phone as a tool to make their job useful, instead market followers intend to adopt smart phone as a tool to make their time enjoyable. In terms of marketing strategy for smart phone company, marketing managers should pay more attention to identify their customers' lifetime value by the phase of smart phone adoption, as well as to understand their behavior intention to accept the risk and uncertainty positively. The academic contribution of this study primarily is to employ the VAM (Value-based Adoption Model) as a conceptual foundation, compared to TAM (Technology Acceptance Model) used widely by previous studies. VAM is useful for understanding continuous intention to use smart phone in comparison with TAM as a new IT utility by individual adoption. Perceived value dominantly influences continuous intention to use smart phone. The results of this study justify our research model adoption on each antecedent of perceived value as a benefit and a sacrifice component. While TAM could be widely used in user acceptance of new technology, it has a limitation to explain the new IT adoption like smart phone, because of customer behavior intention to choose the value of the object. In terms of theoretical approach, this study provides theoretical contribution to the development, design, and marketing of smart phone. The practical contribution of this study is to suggest useful decision alternatives concerned to marketing strategy formulation for acquiring and retaining long-term customers related to smart phone business. Since potential customers are interested in both benefit and sacrifice when evaluating the value of smart phone, marketing managers in smart phone company has to put more effort into creating customer's value of low sacrifice and high benefit so that customers will continuously have higher adoption on smart phone. Especially, this study shows that innovators and early adopters with high level of innovativeness have higher adoption than market followers with low level of innovativeness, in terms of perceived usefulness and perceived cost. To formulate marketing strategy for smart phone diffusion, marketing managers have to pay more attention to identify not only their customers' benefit and sacrifice components but also their customers' lifetime value to adopt smart phone.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.65-96
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• 2012

Brand has received much attention from considerable marketing research. When consumers consume product or services, they are exposed to a lot of brand related stimuli. These contain brand personality, brand experience, brand identity, brand communications and so on. A special kind of new crisis occasionally confronting companies' brand management today is the brand related rumor. An important influence on consumers' purchase decision making is the word-of-mouth spread by other consumers and most decisions are influenced by other's recommendations. In light of this influence, firms have reasonable reason to study and understand consumer-to-consumer communication such as brand rumor. The importance of brand rumor to marketers is increasing as the number of internet user and SNS(social network service) site grows. Due to the development of internet technology, people can spread rumors without the limitation of time, space and place. However relatively few studies have been published in marketing journals and little is known about brand rumors in the marketplace. The study of rumor has a long history in all major social science. But very few studies have dealt with the antecedents and consequences of any kind of brand rumor. Rumor has been generally described as a story or statement in general circulation without proper confirmation or certainty as to fact. And it also can be defined as an unconfirmed proposition, passed along from people to people. Rosnow(1991) claimed that rumors were transmitted because people needed to explain ambiguous and uncertain events and talking about them reduced associated anxiety. Especially negative rumors are believed to have the potential to devastate a company's reputation and relations with customers. From the perspective of marketer, negative rumors are considered harmful and extremely difficult to control in general. It is becoming a threat to a company's sustainability and sometimes leads to negative brand image and loss of customers. Thus there is a growing concern that these negative rumors can damage brands' reputations and lead them to financial disaster too. In this study we aimed to distinguish antecedents of brand rumor transmission and investigate the effects of brand rumor characteristics on rumor spread intention. We also found key components in personal acceptance of brand rumor. In contextualist perspective, we tried to unify the traditional psychological and sociological views. In this unified research approach we defined brand rumor's characteristics based on five major variables that had been found to influence the process of rumor spread intention. The five factors of usefulness, source credibility, message credibility, worry, and vividness, encompass multi level elements of brand rumor. We also selected product involvement as a control variable. To perform the empirical research, imaginary Korean 'Kimch' brand and related contamination rumor was created and proposed. Questionnaires were collected from 178 Korean samples. Data were collected from college students who have been experienced the focal product. College students were regarded as good subjects because they have a tendency to express their opinions in detail. PLS(partial least square) method was adopted to analyze the relations between variables in the equation model. The most widely adopted causal modeling method is LISREL. However it is poorly suited to deal with relatively small data samples and can yield not proper solutions in some cases. PLS has been developed to avoid some of these limitations and provide more reliable results. To test the reliability using SPSS 16 s/w, Cronbach alpha was examined and all the values were appropriate showing alpha values between .802 and .953. Subsequently, confirmatory factor analysis was conducted successfully. And structural equation modeling has been used to analyze the research model using smartPLS(ver. 2.0) s/w. Overall, R² of adoption of rumor is .476 and R² of intention of rumor transmission is .218. The overall model showed a satisfactory fit. The empirical results can be summarized as follows. According to the results, the variables of brand rumor characteristic such as source credibility, message credibility, worry, and vividness affect argument strength of rumor. And argument strength of rumor also affects rumor intention. On the other hand, the relationship between perceived usefulness and argument strength of rumor is not significant. The moderating effect of product involvement on the relations between argument strength of rumor and rumor W.O.M intention is not supported neither. Consequently this study suggests some managerial and academic implications. We consider some implications for corporate crisis management planning, PR and brand management. This results show marketers that rumor is a critical factor for managing strong brand assets. Also for researchers, brand rumor should become an important thesis of their interests to understand the relationship between consumer and brand. Recently many brand managers and marketers have focused on the short-term view. They just focused on strengthen the positive brand image. According to this study we suggested that effective brand management requires managing negative brand rumors with a long-term view of marketing decisions.