• Transactions of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.71-76
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• 2008

Nonlinear dynamic system under random excitation was analyzed by using stochastic method. A linearization method was used in order to linearize non-linear structural characteristics but the parametric excitation was used as it was given. An equivalent energy method which equalizes the expectation value of energy of the original nonlinear system and that of quasi-linearized system was proposed. Ito's differential rule was applied to obtain steady state moments. Quasi-linearization coefficients can be obtained the iterative calculation of linearization scheme and steady state moments. Monte Carlo simulation was used to verify the results of the proposed method. Nonlinear vibration of a slender beam was analyzed in this research. The analysis results were compared with Monte Carlo simulation result and showed good agreement. As the spectral density of the given excitation increased, the analysis results showed the better agreement with Monte Carlo simulation.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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• v.17 no.1 s.104
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• pp.39-44
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• 2006

This paper proposes a method of moments(MoM)/Monte-Carlo simulation and Physical Optics(PO) model to determine Bistatic Coherent Reflectivity of sea surfaces at various wind speeds. For the MoM simulation, a Gaussian random rough sea surface was generated based on the data of Tae-An ocean at various wind speeds and sea surface heights. The numerical results of the MoM/Monte Carlo simulations were used to verify the validity region of the PO model. It was found that the numerical result for a flat surface agrees quite well with the Fresnel reflection coefficient. The validity of the PO model on the rough sea surface is shown by using ray tracing method.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.139-155
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• 2000

An exclusive simulation study is conducted in computing means for order statistics in standard normal variate. Monte Carlo moments are used in Shapiro-Francia W' statistic computation. Finally, quantiles for Shapiro-Francia W' are generated. The study shows that in computing means for order statistics in standard normal variate, complicated distributions and intensive numerical integrations can be avoided by using Monte Carlo simulation. Lack of accuracy is minimal and computation simplicity is noteworthy.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.99-109
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• 2009

Negative binomial yield model for semiconductor manufacturing consists of two parameters which are the average number of defects per die and the clustering parameter. Estimating the clustering parameter is quite complex because the parameter has not clear closed form. In this paper, a Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo is proposed to estimate the clustering parameter. To find an appropriate estimation method for the clustering parameter, two typical estimators, the method of moments estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator, and the proposed Bayesian estimator are compared with respect to the mean absolute deviation between the real yield and the estimated yield. Experimental results show that both the proposed Bayesian estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator have excellent performance and the choice of method depends on the purpose of use.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.25-36
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• 2004

This study was conducted to derive the design rainfall by the consecutive duration using the at-site frequency analysis. Using the errors, K-S tests and LH-moment ratios, Log Pearson type 3 (LP3) and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions of Gamma and Non-Gamma Family, respectively were identified as the optimal probability distributions among applied distributions. Parameters of GEV and LP3 distributions were estimated by the method of L and LH-moments and the Indirect method of moments respectively. Design rainfalls following the consecutive duration were derived by at-site frequency analysis using the observed and simulated data resulted from Monte Carlo techniques. Relative root-mean-square error (RRMSE) and relative efficiency (RE) in RRMSE for the design rainfall derived by at-site analysis in the observed and simulated data were computed and compared. It has shown that at-site frequency analysis by GEV distribution using L-moments is confirmed as more reliable than that of GEV and LP3 distributions using LH-moments and Indirect method of moments in view of relative efficiency.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.70-82
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• 2001

This study was conducted to derive the regional design rainfall by the regional frequency analysis based on the regionalization of the precipitation suggested by the first report of this project. Using the L-moment ratios and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the underlying regional probability distribution was identified to be the Generalized extreme value distribution among applied distributions. Regional and at-site parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution were estimated by the linear combination of the probability weighted moments, L-moment. The regional and at-site analysis for the design rainfall were tested by Monte Carlo simulation. Relative root-mean-square error(RRMSE), relative bias(RBIAS) and relative reduction(RR) in RRMSE were computed and compared with those resulting from at-site Monte Carlo simulation. All show that the regional analysis procedure can substantially reduce the RRMSE, RBIAS and RR in RRMSE in the prediction of design rainfall. Consequently, optimal design rainfalls following the legions and consecutive durations were derived by the regional frequency analysis.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.373-392
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• 2001

The main idea behind the paper is to present two alternative methods of homogenization of the heat conduction problem in composite materials, where the heat conductivity coefficients are assumed to be random variables. These two methods are the Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) technique and the second order perturbation second probabilistic moment method, with its computational implementation known as the Stochastic Finite Element Method (SFEM). From the mathematical point of view, the deterministic homogenization method, being extended to probabilistic spaces, is based on the effective modules approach. Numerical results obtained in the paper allow to compare MCS against the SFEM and, on the other hand, to verify the sensitivity of effective heat conductivity probabilistic moments to the reinforcement ratio. These computational studies are provided in the range of up to fourth order probabilistic moments of effective conductivity coefficient and compared with probabilistic characteristics of the Voigt-Reuss bounds.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.141-148
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• 2016

This paper proposes a method to estimate directly the incoherent scattered intensity and radar cross section (RCS) from the effective permittivity of a random media. The proposed method is derived from the original concept of incoherent scattering. The incoherent scattered field is expressed as a simple formula. Therefore, to reduce computation time, the proposed method can estimate the incoherent scattered intensity and RCS of a random media. To verify the potential of the proposed method for the desired applications, we conducted a Monte-Carlo analysis using the method of moments; we characterized the accuracy of the proposed method using the normalized mean square error (NMSE). In addition, several medium parameters, such as the density of scatterers and analysis volume, were studied to understand their effect on the scattering characteristics of a random media. The results of the Monte-Carlo analysis show good agreement with those of the proposed method, and the NMSE values of the proposed method and Monte-Carlo analysis are relatively small at less than 0.05.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.97-105
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• 1984

A method and computer code for the uncertainty analysis in the top event unavailability are developed and tested by combining Monte Carlo Method and Moments method with fault tree reduction technique. Using system fault trees and unavailability data selected in WASH-1400, the efficiency of the proposed method is tested and these results are compared with those obtained by Monte Carlo method. It is shown that the results are sufficiently good in accuracy and computation time is considerably reduced compared with those by Monte Carlo method.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.49-57
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• 2018

In a previous article, for analyzing a stochastic activity network, Cho proposed a method for estimating the moments (mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis) of the project completion time under the assumption that the durations of activities are independently and normally distributed. Developed in the present article is a method for estimating those moments for stochastic activity networks which allow any type of distributions for activity durations. The proposed method uses the moment matching approach to discretize the distribution function of activity duration, and then a discrete inverse-transform method to determine activity durations to be used for calculating the project completion time. The proposed method can be easily applied to large-sized activity networks, and computationally more efficient than Monte Carlo simulation, and its accuracy is comparable to that of Monte Carlo simulation.