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http://dx.doi.org/10.9723/jksiis.2018.23.3.049

Estimating the Moments of the Project Completion Time in Stochastic Activity Networks: General Distributions for Activity Durations  

Cho, Jae-Gyeun (동의대학교 정보경영학부)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems / v.23, no.3, 2018 , pp. 49-57 More about this Journal
Abstract
In a previous article, for analyzing a stochastic activity network, Cho proposed a method for estimating the moments (mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis) of the project completion time under the assumption that the durations of activities are independently and normally distributed. Developed in the present article is a method for estimating those moments for stochastic activity networks which allow any type of distributions for activity durations. The proposed method uses the moment matching approach to discretize the distribution function of activity duration, and then a discrete inverse-transform method to determine activity durations to be used for calculating the project completion time. The proposed method can be easily applied to large-sized activity networks, and computationally more efficient than Monte Carlo simulation, and its accuracy is comparable to that of Monte Carlo simulation.
Keywords
Stochastic Activity Network; Project Completion Time; Discretization;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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