• Title/Summary/Keyword: Monte Carlo model

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Stick-slip vibration analysis by using statistical friction model and accuracy verification of the friction model (통계적 마찰 모델을 활용한 stick-slip 진동 해석과 정확성 검증)

  • Yoo, Hong Hee;Kang, Won Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2014.10a
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    • pp.830-832
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    • 2014
  • In this study, friction stick-slip vibration're interpretation of the phenomenon, we used a statistical model of friction. In a previous study using a definite friction factor, but to a dynamic simulation using a constantly changing during the integration time by a Monte Carlo simulation method, not the average coefficient of friction and the dynamic friction coefficient and a constant value in this study.

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Modeling saturated-unsaturated moisture flow in soils (포화층및 불포화층에 대한 토양수분흐름의 모델링)

  • 정상옥
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 1988.07a
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 1988
  • A model for the transient one-dimensional moisture movement in the saturated-unsaturated zone using a finite difference method is developed. Hysteresis in the soil water retention is incorporated. The model considers layered geologic formations. Monte Carlo simulation, together with the nearest neighbor model is used. Outputs of the model include pressure head, water content, and the water table elevation. Two Monte Carlo simulations of 100 realizations each are made for a 12-day simulation period with different input values. The simulation results show that the S.D. of the outputs increases with an increase in the input, the S.D. of the log K$$. The model is applied to predict a long term water table fluctuation, and the predicted water table agress well with the observed one.

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Conformity Enhancement of Methane Generation Model for In-Service Landfill Site (운영 중인 매립장에서의 메탄가스 발생 모델의 정합도 향상)

  • Chun, Seung-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.213-223
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    • 2016
  • The validity of landfill gas models is an important problem considering that they are frequently used for landfill-site-related policy making and energy recovery planning. In this study, the Monte Carlo method was applied to an landfill gas generation model in order to enhance conformity. Results show that the relative mean deviation between measured data and modeled results (MD) decreased from 19.8% to 11.7% after applying the uncertainty range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to the methane-generation potential and reaction constants. Additionally, when let reaction constant adjust derived errors from all other modeling components, such as model logic, gauging waste, and measured methane data, MD decreased to 6.6% and the disparity in total methane generation quantity to 2.1%.

Effect of Potential Model Pruning on Official-Sized Board in Monte-Carlo GO

  • Oshima-So, Makoto
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.54-60
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    • 2021
  • Monte-Carlo GO is a computer GO program that is sufficiently competent without using knowledge expressions of IGO. Although it is computationally intensive, the computational complexity can be reduced by properly pruning the IGO game tree. Here, I achieve this by using a potential model based on the knowledge expressions of IGO. The potential model treats GO stones as potentials. A specific potential distribution on the GO board results from a unique arrangement of stones on the board. Pruning using the potential model categorizes legal moves into effective and ineffective moves in accordance with the potential threshold. Here, certain pruning strategies based on potentials and potential gradients are experimentally evaluated. For different-sized boards, including an official-sized board, the effects of pruning strategies are evaluated in terms of their robustness. I successfully demonstrate pruning using a potential model to reduce the computational complexity of GO as well as the robustness of this effect across different-sized boards.

Development of river discharge estimation scheme using Monte Carlo simulation and 1D numerical analysis model (Monte Carlo 모의 및 수치해석 모형을 활용한 하천 유량 추정기법의 개발)

  • Kang, Hansol;An, Hyunuk;Kim, Yeonsu;Hur, Youngteck;Noh, Joonwoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.279-289
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    • 2022
  • Since the frequency of heavy rainfall is increasing due to climate change, water levels in the river exceed past historical records. The rating-curve is to convert water level into flow dicscharge from the regression analysis of the water level and corresponding flow discharges. However, the rating-curve involves many uncertainties because of the limited data especially when observed water level exceed past historical water levels. In order to compensate for insufficient data and increase the accuracy of flow discharge data, this study estimates the flow discharge in the river computed mathematically using Monte Carlo simulation based on a 1D hydrodynamic numerical model. Based on the existing rating curve, a random combination of coefficients constituting the rating-curve creates a number of virtual rating curve. From the computed results of the hydrodynamic model, it is possible to estimate flow discharge which reproduces best fit to the observed water level. Based on the statistical evaluation of these samples, a method for mathematically estimating the water level and flow discharge of all cross sections is porposed. The proposed methodology is applied to the junction of Yochoen Stream in the Seomjin River. As a result, it is confirmed that the water level reproducibility was greatly improved. Also, the water level and flow discharge can be calculated mathematically when the proposed method is applied.

Hydrologic Utilization of Radar-Derived Rainfall (II) Uncertainty Analysis (레이더 추정강우의 수문학적 활용 (II): 불확실성 해석)

  • Kim Jin-Hoon;Lee Kyoung-Do;Bae Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.12 s.161
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    • pp.1051-1060
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    • 2005
  • The present study analyzes hydrologic utilization of optimal radar-derived rainfall by using semi-distributed TOPMODEL and evaluates the impacts of radar rainfall and model parametric uncertainty on a hydrologic model. Monte Carlo technique is used to produce the flow ensembles. The simulated flows from the corrected radar rainfalls with real-time bias adjustment scheme are well agreed to observed flows during 22-26 July 2003. It is shown that radar-derived rainfall is useful for simulating streamflow on a basin scale. These results are diagnose with which radar-rainfall Input and parametric uncertainty influence the character of the flow simulation uncertainty. The main conclusions for this uncertainty analysis are that the radar input uncertainty is less influent than the parametric one, and combined uncertainty with radar and Parametric input can be included the highest uncertainty on a streamflow simulation.

A Study on Building Identification from the Three-dimensional Point Cloud by using Monte Carlo Integration Method (몬테카를로 적분을 통한 3차원 점군의 건물 식별기법 연구)

  • YI, Chaeyeon;AN, Seung-Man
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.16-41
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    • 2020
  • Geospatial input setting to represent the reality of spatial distribution or quantitative property within model has become a major interest in earth system simulation. Many studies showed the variation of grid resolution could lead to drastic changes of spatial model results because of insufficient surface property estimations. Hence, in this paper, the authors proposed Monte Carlo Integration (MCI) to apply spatial probability (SP) in a spatial-sampling framework using a three-dimensional point cloud (3DPC) to keep the optimized spatial distribution and area/volume property of buildings in urban area. Three different decision rule based building identification results were compared : SP threshold, cell size, and 3DPC density. Results shows the identified building area property tend to increase according to the spatial sampling grid area enlargement. Hence, areal building property manipulation in the sampling frameworks by using decision rules is strongly recommended to increase reliability of geospatial modeling and analysis results. Proposed method will support the modeling needs to keep quantitative building properties in both finer and coarser grids.

Sensor Model Design of Range Sensor Based Probabilistic Localization for the Autonomous Mobile Robot (자율 주행 로봇의 확률론적 자기 위치 추정기법을 위해 거리 센서를 이용한 센서 모델 설계)

  • Kim, Kyung-Rock;Chung, Woo-Jin;Kim, Mun-Sang
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2004.11c
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    • pp.27-29
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    • 2004
  • This paper presents a sensor model design based on Monte Carlo Localization method. First, we define the measurement error of each sample using a map matching method by 2-D laser scanners and a pre-constructed grid-map of the environment. Second, samples are assigned probabilities due to matching errors from the gaussian probability density function considered of the sample's convergence. Simulation using real environment data shows good localization results by the designed sensor model.

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Bayesian analysis of financial volatilities addressing long-memory, conditional heteroscedasticity and skewed error distribution

  • Oh, Rosy;Shin, Dong Wan;Oh, Man-Suk
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.507-518
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    • 2017
  • Volatility plays a crucial role in theory and applications of asset pricing, optimal portfolio allocation, and risk management. This paper proposes a combined model of autoregressive moving average (ARFIMA), generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GRACH), and skewed-t error distribution to accommodate important features of volatility data; long memory, heteroscedasticity, and asymmetric error distribution. A fully Bayesian approach is proposed to estimate the parameters of the model simultaneously, which yields parameter estimates satisfying necessary constraints in the model. The approach can be easily implemented using a free and user-friendly software JAGS to generate Markov chain Monte Carlo samples from the joint posterior distribution of the parameters. The method is illustrated by using a daily volatility index from Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). JAGS codes for model specification is provided in the Appendix.

GENERATING SAMPLE PATHS AND THEIR CONVERGENCE OF THE GEOMETRIC FRACTIONAL BROWNIAN MOTION

  • Choe, Hi Jun;Chu, Jeong Ho;Kim, Jongeun
    • Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.1241-1261
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    • 2018
  • We derive discrete time model of the geometric fractional Brownian motion. It provides numerical pricing scheme of financial derivatives when the market is driven by geometric fractional Brownian motion. With the convergence analysis, we guarantee the convergence of Monte Carlo simulations. The strong convergence rate of our scheme has order H which is Hurst parameter. To obtain our model we need to convert Wick product term of stochastic differential equation into Wick free discrete equation through Malliavin calculus but ours does not include Malliavin derivative term. Finally, we include several numerical experiments for the option pricing.