• Title/Summary/Keyword: Monte Carlo model

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Comparative Assessment of the Conceptual Rainfall Runoff model and HEC-HMS in the Jeungpyeong catchment (증평유역의 개념적 강우-유출모형과 HEC-HMS모형 비교 평가)

  • Park, Ki-Soon;Lee, Hyo-Sang;Lee, Moo-Kyeong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.977-977
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    • 2012
  • 하천의 유량 측정은 대부분 홍수 예보지역, 댐 상류지역, 대하천 및 유역내 주요지점을 위주로 수행되고 있으나, 중소하천과 소유역에 대한 관측자료는 전무한 실정이다. 그로 인해 중소하천과 소유역 등 미계측 유역에 대한 유량 산정에 어려움이 있다. 본 연구에서는 미계측 유역에 대한 적합한 유량 산정방법의 검토를 위해 미호천의 소유역인 증평유역을 대상으로 9개의 개념적 강우-유출모형(3개의 토양저류모형과 3개의 유역유출모형의 조합)을 적용하였으며, 이에 대한 적용성 검토를 위해 국내 홍수량산정에 많이 활용되고 있는 HEC-HMS 모형으로 비교평가를 실시하였다. 이를 위하여 총 6개의 단기 홍수사상을 Monte Carlo 분석(Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency, NSE*)의 목적함수를 통하여 모형 매개변수의 검정 및 검증을 수행하였다. 두 모형의 단기 유출 모의 결과 검정에서 HEC-HMS는 목적함수값 0.06~1.44(NE S*)의 모형성능을 보여주었으며, 개념적 강우-유출 모형은 0.00~0.66(NES*)의 모형성능을 나타내었다. 개념적 강우-유출 모형과 HEC-HMS모형의 매개변수 최적화를 통한 검증 결과 HEC-HMS는 0.25(NES*)의 목적함수 값을 나타내었고, 9개의 개념적 강우-유출모형은 0.14~0.83(NES*)의 목적함수 값을 나타내었다. 이 중 CWI-3PAR, CWI-2PMP, PDM-3PAR와 PDM-2PMP 모형이 0.16~0.26(NES*)으로 우수한 성능을 보이며, HEC-HMS 모형의 첨두유량 과소평가에 대한 문제점을 해결하였다. 이를 통하여 CWI-3PAR, CWI-2PMP, PDM-3PAR와 PDM-2PMP 모형이 증평유역의 지역화를 위한 단기사상 강우유출모형으로 적합하다고 판단된다. 향후 연구유역을 확장하여 추가적인 연구를 통해 일반화된 결론을 얻을 필요가 있다.

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Probabilistic Approach for Fighter Inlet Hammershock Design Pressure (전투기 흡입구 해머쇼크 설계압력에 대한 확률론적 접근법)

  • Bae, Hyo-gil;Lee, Hoon Sik;Kim, Yun-mi;Jeong, In Myon;Lee, SangHyo;Cho, Dae-yeong
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.72-78
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    • 2019
  • Inlet hammershock is the critical loads condition for designing the inlet duct structure of a fighter. The sudden flow reduction in engine compressor causes inlet hammershock with high pressure. The traditional method was used to combine extreme conditions (maximum speed, sea level altitude, and cold day) to analyze this compression wave inlet hammershock pressure. However, after the 90s there have been papers that presented the probabilistic approach for the inlet hammershock to achieve the appropriate design pressure. This study shows how to analyze the inlet hammershock pressure by making practical use of the Republic of Korea Air Force real flight usage data under probabilistic approach and then analyze approximately 30% decreased inlet hammershock pressure compared with the traditional valve.

Assessment of Continuous Simulations of Conceptual Ranfall-Runoff Models at Guem River Catchments, Kore (금강 유역의 개념적 강우유출모형의 장기 유출 모의 적용성 평가)

  • Chang, Hyung Joon;Lee, Hyo Sang;Ko, A Ra
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.99-99
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    • 2015
  • 본 연구에서는 금강 유역을 대상으로 토양저류함수모형기반의 개념적 강우유출모형의 장기 유출모의를 평가하였다. 연구유역인 금강 22개 계측유역을 주요 유역특성인자(면적, 경사도, SCS-CN등)을 수문학적 거리 산정방법을 활용하여 3개의 유역그룹을 선정하였다. 적용모형인 개념적 강우유출모형은 3개의 토양저류함수모형[확률분포모형(PDM: Probability Distributed Moisture), 유역습윤지수모형(CWI: Catchment Wetness Index), 수정펜맨타입모형(MP: Modified Penman type model)]과 3개의 유역추적모형[병렬2선형 저류지 유출 모형(2PAR: 2-conceptual reservoirs in parallel), 빠른 지표하 흐름을 고려한 병렬 2선형 저류지 유출모형(2PMP: 2Macro-pre Approach parallel structure), 병렬 3선형 저류지 유출모형(3PAR: 3-conceptual reservoirs in parallel)]의 조합인 9개의 모형을 사용하였으며, 2006년부터 2012년의 일자료를 바탕으로 검정(Calibration), 2001년부터 2005년의 일자료를 검증(Validation)을 Monte carlo method(Uniform Random Sampling)로 수행 후, 모형의 성능은 NSE(Nash sutcliffe Efficiency)로 평가하였다. 분석결과 유역그룹에 대한 모형성능의 편차는 작아서 유역그룹에 대한 토양저류 함수모형의 뚜렷한 상관성을 확인할 수 없었다. 이는 금강 유역을 단일 유역 그룹으로 적용할 수 있음을 제시하고 있다. 검정 검증성능 및 검정매개변수의 개수를 바탕으로 적용성 평가를 실시한 결과에서 토양저류함수모형인 확률분포모형(PDM)과 유역추적모형의 병렬2선형 저류지 유출모형(2PAR)와 빠른 지표하 흐름을 고려한 병렬2선형 저류지 유출모형(2PMP)의 조합이 금강 22개 유역에서 적용성이 우수함을 확인하였다. 향후 이 모형을 바탕으로 금강유역의 대표적인 강우유출모형을 개발하고자 한다.

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Radiological Impact Assessment for Radioactive Concrete in Dismantling of the Medical Cyclotron (의료용 사이클로트론 해체 시 발생되는 방사화 콘크리트의 방사선학적 영향평가)

  • Jang, Donggun;Shin, Sanghwa
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2019
  • Neutrons are generated by the nuclear reaction, which is absorbed into the concrete wall and causes the activation during cyclotron operation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of neutron activation and radiative concrete on concrete type. This experiment used Monte Carlo simulation and RESRAD model. The results of the experiment showed that the higher the content of Fe in concrete, the greater the shielding rate. The effect of $^{56}Fe(n,\;2np)^{54}Mn$ reaction on workers is also increased. However, radioactive nuclides have low activity and have very low impact on workers. Radioactive concrete should be treated as general wastes with less than its self-disposal tolerance level, and it should be recycled to the surface such as road repair rather than landfill to minimize the effect of $^{14}C$.

A Study on regionalization of PDM model parameters (확률분포모형(PDM)의 매개변수 지역화에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Hyung Joon;Lee, Hyo Sang;Kim, Seong Goo;Park, Ki Soon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.224-224
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    • 2017
  • 지구온난화로 인한 기후변화 등으로 안전한 하천구조물을 설계하기 위해서는 신뢰할 수 있는 홍수량 산정이 필요하다. 신뢰할 수 있는 홍수량 산정을 위해서는 정도 높은 과거 수문자료가 필요하나 국내의 많은 중소 규모유역이 미계측 유역 또는 과거 수문자료 부족으로 신뢰 할 수 있는 홍수량 산정이 어려운 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 미계측 유역의 홍수량 산정을 위하여 확률분포모형(PDM)의 매개변수 지역화를 수행하였다. 매개변수 지역화 연구를 수행하기 위하여, 금강 25개 유역을 대상으로 유역별 9~18개의 단기홍수수문사상을 선정하였다. 선정된 단기홍수수문사상을 확률분포모형에 적용하기위하여, MCAT (Monte Carlo Analysis Toolbox)을 활용하여 검정 및 검증을 수행하였으며, 목적함수는 수문곡선 모든 구간을 반영하는 NSE (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency)와 고유량 부분을 반영하는 RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) - FH를 적용하였다. 각각의 목적함수에 대하여 검정 모형 매개변수와 유역 특성인자의 다중 선형회귀식을 강우유출모형 매개변수 지역화 모형으로 제시하였다. 매개변수 지역화 결과의 평가를 위하여 청주 유역을 미계측 유역으로 가정하였다. 청주 유역에 대하여 지역화 매개변수를 적용한 결과, 17개의 사상 중 11개의 사상에서 NSE 목적함수 값이 0.5이상으로 전체적인 수문곡선의 경향성을 보였으며, 첨두 홍수량은 17개 사상 중 11개 사상에서 관측 첨두 홍수량 값의 20%이내를 제시하여 적합한 결과를 제시하였다. 또한 금강 25개 유역에 Jackknife 방법으로 검정 결과 관측 첨두 홍수량 값 20%이내의 성능을 보이는 사상이 56%를 포함하고 있어 의미있는 지역화 모형을 제시하였다고 판단된다. 본 연구에서 제시한 매개변수 지역화 방법은 미계측 유역의 유출모의에 활용될 수 있음을 확인하였다.

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Improved Sensor Filtering Method for Sensor Registry System (센서 레지스트리 시스템을 위한 개선된 센서 필터링 기법)

  • Chen, Haotian;Jung, Hyunjun;Lee, Sukhoon;On, Byung-Won;Jeong, Dongwon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2022
  • Sensor Registry System (SRS) has been devised for maintaining semantic interoperability of data on heterogeneous sensor networks. SRS measures the connectability of the mobile device to ambient sensors based on positions and only provides metadata of sensors that may be successfully connected. The step of identifying the ambient sensors which can be successfully connected is called sensor filtering. Improving the performance of sensor filtering is one of the core issues of SRS research. In reality, GPS sometimes shows the wrong position and thus leads to failed sensor filtering. Therefore, this paper proposes a new sensor filtering strategy using geographical embedding and neural network-based path prediction. This paper also evaluates the service provision rate with the Monte Carlo approach. The empirical study shows that the proposed method can compensate for position abnormalities and is an effective model for sensor filtering in SRS.

Sensitivity and uncertainty quantification of neutronic integral data in the TRIGA Mark II research reactor

  • Makhloul, M.;Boukhal, H.;Chakir, E.;El Bardouni, T.;Lahdour, M.;Kaddour, M.;Ahmed, Abdulaziz;Arectout, A.;El Yaakoubi, H.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.523-531
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    • 2022
  • In order to study the sensitivity and the uncertainty of the Moroccan research reactor TRIGA Mark II, a model of this reactor has been developed in our ERSN laboratory for use with the N-Particle MCNP Monte Carlo transport codes (version 6). In this article, the sensitivities of the effective multiplication factor of this reactor are evaluated using the ENDF/B-VII.0, ENDF/B-VII.1 and JENDL-4.0 libraries and in 44 energy groups, for the cross sections of the fuel (U-235 and U-238) and the moderator (H-1 and O-16). However, the quantification of the uncertainty of the nuclear data is performed using the nuclear code NJOY99 for the generation and processing of covariance matrices. On the one hand, the highest uncertainty deviations, calculated using the ENDFB-VII.1 and JENDL4.0 evaluations, are 2275, 386 and 330 pcm respectively for the reactions U235(n, f), $ U_{235}(n\bar{\nu})$ and H1(n, γ). On the other hand, these differences are very small for the neutron reactions of O-16 and U-238. Regarding the neutron spectra, in CT-mid plane, they are very close for the three evaluations (ENDF/B-VII.0, ENDF/B-VII.1 and JENDL-4.0). These spectra present two peaks (thermal and fission) around the energies 0.05 eV and 1 MeV.

Particle loading as a design parameter for composite radiation shielding

  • Baumann, N.;Diaz, K. Marquez;Simmons-Potter, K.;Potter, B.G. Jr.;Bucay, J.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.10
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    • pp.3855-3863
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    • 2022
  • An evaluation of the radiation shielding performance of high-Z-particle-loaded polylactic acid (PLA) composite materials was pursued. Specimens were produced via fused deposition modeling (FDM) using copper-PLA, steel-PLA, and BaSO4-PLA composite filaments containing 82.7, 75.2, and 44.6 wt% particulate phase contents, respectively, and were tested under broad-band flash x-ray conditions at the Sandia National Laboratories HERMES III facility. The experimental results for the mass attenuation coefficients of the composites were found to be in good agreement with GEANT4 simulations carried out using the same exposure conditions and an atomistic mixture as a model for the composite materials. Further simulation studies, focusing on the Cu-PLA composite system, were used to explore a shield design parameter space (in this case, defined by Cu-particle loading and shield areal density) to assess performance under both high-energy photon and electron fluxes over an incident energy range of 0.5-15 MeV. Based on these results, a method is proposed that can assist in the visualization and isolation of shield parameter coordinate sets that optimize performance under targeted radiation characteristics (type, energy). For electron flux shielding, an empirical relationship was found between areal density (AD), electron energy (E), composition and performance. In cases where ${\frac{E}{AD}}{\geq}2MeV{\bullet}cm{\bullet}g^{-1}$, a shield composed of >85 wt% Cu results in optimal performance. In contrast, a shield composed of <10 wt% Cu is anticipated to perform best against electron irradiation when ${\frac{E}{AD}}<2MeV{\bullet}cm{\bullet}g^{-1}$.

A novel radioactive particle tracking algorithm based on deep rectifier neural network

  • Dam, Roos Sophia de Freitas;dos Santos, Marcelo Carvalho;do Desterro, Filipe Santana Moreira;Salgado, William Luna;Schirru, Roberto;Salgado, Cesar Marques
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.7
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    • pp.2334-2340
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    • 2021
  • Radioactive particle tracking (RPT) is a minimally invasive nuclear technique that tracks a radioactive particle inside a volume of interest by means of a mathematical location algorithm. During the past decades, many algorithms have been developed including ones based on artificial intelligence techniques. In this study, RPT technique is applied in a simulated test section that employs a simplified mixer filled with concrete, six scintillator detectors and a137Cs radioactive particle emitting gamma rays of 662 keV. The test section was developed using MCNPX code, which is a mathematical code based on Monte Carlo simulation, and 3516 different radioactive particle positions (x,y,z) were simulated. Novelty of this paper is the use of a location algorithm based on a deep learning model, more specifically a 6-layers deep rectifier neural network (DRNN), in which hyperparameters were defined using a Bayesian optimization method. DRNN is a type of deep feedforward neural network that substitutes the usual sigmoid based activation functions, traditionally used in vanilla Multilayer Perceptron Networks, for rectified activation functions. Results show the great accuracy of the DRNN in a RPT tracking system. Root mean squared error for x, y and coordinates of the radioactive particle is, respectively, 0.03064, 0.02523 and 0.07653.

The influence of MgO on the radiation protection and mechanical properties of tellurite glasses

  • Hanfi, M.Y.;Sayyed, M.I.;Lacomme, E.;Akkurt, I.;Mahmoud, K.A.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.2000-2010
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    • 2021
  • Mechanical moduli, such as Young's modulus (E), Bulks modulus (B), Shear modulus (S), longitudinal modulus (L), Poisson's ratio (σ) and micro Hardness (H) were theoretically calculated for (100-x)TeO2+x MgO glasses, where x = 10, 20, 30, 40 and 45 mol%, based on the Makishima-Mackenzie model. The estimated results showed that the mechanical moduli and the microhardness of the glasses were improved with the increase of the MgO contents in the TM glasses, while Poisson's ratio decreased with the increase in MgO content. Moreover, the radiation shielding capacity was evaluated for the studied TM glasses. Thus, the linear attenuation coefficient (LAC), mass attenuation coefficient (MAC), transmission factor (TF) and half-value thickness (𝚫0.5) were simulated for gamma photon energies between 0.344 and 1.406 MeV. The simulated results showed that glass TM10 with 10 mol % MgO possess the highest LAC and varied in the range between 0.259 and 0.711 cm-1, while TM45 glass with 45 mol % MgO possess the lowest LAC and vary in the range between 0.223 and 0.587 cm-1 at gamma photon energies between 0.344 and 1.406 MeV. Furthermore, the BXCOM program was applied to calculate the effective atomic number (Zeff), equivalent atomic number (Zeq) and buildup factors (EBF and EABF) of the glasses. The effective removal cross-section for the fast neutrons (ERCSFN, ∑R) was also calculated theoretically. The received data depicts that the lowest ∑R was achieved for TM10 glasses, where ∑R = 0.0193 cm2 g-1, while TM45 possesses the highest ERCSFN where ∑R = 0.0215 cm2 g-1.