• Title/Summary/Keyword: Monte Carlo Analysis

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Design and Analysis of Intelligent AMC Scheme with Relay Protocols in LTE-Advanced System (LTE-Advanced 시스템에서 릴레이 프로토콜을 적용한 지능형 AMC 기법의 설계 및 분석)

  • Malik, Saransh;Kim, Bora;Moon, Sangmi;Kim, Daejin;Hwang, Intae
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.49 no.12
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    • pp.10-19
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we propose an Adaptive Modulation and Coding (AMC) scheme using relay protocols generally known as Relay Node (RN). The AMC scheme is used for improving the throughput and a reliability of a communication system, because of the nature of different modulation and coding schemes. We analyze the performance of relay protocols with the AMC scheme and observed that relay protocols with the AMC scheme is capable of providing better average throughput at a lower Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) level as compared to the conventional scheme with no AMC. We perform Monte Carlo simulations with Long Term Evolution-Advanced (LTE-A) parameters to prove the performance comparison of adaptive Modulation and Coding Scheme (MCS) relay protocols with the non-adaptive MCS relay protocols. The simulation results of the proposed system with adaptive MCS prove that among the Amplify-and-Forward (AF), Decode-and-Forward (DF) and DeModulate-and-Forward (DMF), the DMF protocol performs best at a lower SNR value and also provides better average throughput.

Verification of the Radiation Shielding Analysis of Shipping Cask Using Deterministic and Probabilistic Methods (결정론적인 방법과 확률론적인 방법을 이용한 수송용기 방사선차폐해석의 비교 및 검증)

  • Yoon, Jeong-Hyoung;Lee, In-Koo;Bang, Kyoung-Sik;Choi, Byoung-Il;Kim, Chong-Kyoung
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 1996
  • In this study, to set-up the calculation method of radiation shielding of the KSC-4 shipping cask which is being used for spent fuel transportation, the pre-existing two calculation methods, deterministic and probabilistic methods were tested. For the first, the DOT4.2 computer code adopting the deterministic theory was applied for the calculation of effective neutron shielding under assumption of continuous wall thickness of the cask. To verify the first results, the probabilistic theory was used as an alternate calculation. In this case MCNP4A computer code adopting the probabilitic theory was used. And same approximation was obtained from the two different shielding calculations. From the results, it could be confirmed that the design and calculation method used for the radiation shielding of the KSC-4 was adequate and sufficiently safe to meet the design and QA requirements of 10CFR71 Appendix H.

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Characterization of Radiation Field in the Steam Generator Water Chambers and Effective Doses to the Workers (증기발생기 수실의 방사선장 특성 및 작업자 유효선량의 평가)

  • Lee, Choon-Sik;Lee, Jai-Ki
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.215-223
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    • 1999
  • Characteristics of radiation field in the steam generator(S/G) water chamber of a PWR were investigated and the anticipated effective dose rates to the worker in the S/G chamber were evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation. The results of crud analysis in the S/G of the Kori nuclear power plant unit 1 were adopted for the source term. The MCNP4A code was used with the MIRD type anthropomorphic sex-specific mathematical phantoms for the calculation of effective doses. The radiation field intensity is dominated by downward rays, from the U-tube region, having approximate cosine distribution with respect to the polar angle. The effective dose rates to adults of nominal body size and of small body size(The phantom for a 15 year-old person was applied for this purpose) appeared to be 36.22 and 37.06 $mSvh^{-1}$) respectively, which implies that the body size effect is negligible. Meanwhile, the equivalent dose rates at three representative positions corresponding to head, chest and lower abdomen of the phantom, calculated using the estimated exposure rates, the energy spectrum and the conversion coefficients given in ICRU47, were 118, 71 and 57 $mSvh^{-1}$, respectively. This implies that the deep dose equivalent or the effective dose obtained from the personal dosimeter reading would be the over-estimate the effective dose by about two times. This justifies, with possible under- or over- response of the dosimeters to radiation of slant incidence, necessity of very careful planning and interpretation for the dosimetry of workers exposed to a non-regular radiation field of high intensity.

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Health risk assessment for radon of groundwater in Korea

  • Kim, Yeshin;Kim, Jinyong;Park, Hoasung;Park, Soungeun;Dongchun Shin
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society of Environmental Toocicology Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.170-170
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    • 2003
  • An initial study has been conducted with Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral resources and National Institute of Environment Research to evaluate the distribution of radon levels and their risk levels of groundwater in Korea. Probability distribution of 616 samples was log-normal one with 1,867pCi/L as arithmetic value, 920pCi/L as median and 40,010pCi/L as maximum during iou. years(1999-2002). In addition, 10% of total samples are in excess of 4,000pCi/L, 20% in excess of 2,700pCi/L, and 30% in excess of 1,700pCi/L, and 15 samples exceeds 10,000pCi/L. Total samples are grouped into 10 areas and 5 rocks unit, and difference of concentrations among areas and rocks are statistically significant(respectively, p<0.0001). The highest area is Daejeon located in ogcheon metamorphic rocks and granitic rocks, and most of all sites with high concentration sites are located in granitic rocks. The lowest area is Jeju located in volcanic rocks. We have estimated excess cancer risks of radon based on these data. To estimate risks, first of all, use patterns of groundwater are categorized with 6 groups: for drinking, household, farming, washing cars, raising stock, and others. We considered risk only for drinking water and household water because radon is rapidly dispersed before it of other use reach human respiratory organs. We select 565 samples for risk analysis, and applied unit risk which is 6.6210-7 per pCi/L to be recommended by NAS committee. Unit risk was derived from considering radon ingestion and radon inhalation from water use. When estimating risk, we analyzed PDF of concentration and represented risk as 50 and 95 percentile values to consider uncertainty with Monte-Carlo simulation. It results in 10-4 level of their excess cancer risk and in 10-2 level in some areas with high concentration of radon. It must be monitor periodically and take adequate actions in these risky sites. We recommend that it needs to take more survey and finally set guideline for radon regulation in groundwater.

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A System Dynamics Model for Negotiation strategy Analysis with North Korea (남북관계와 대북협상전략)

  • 곽상만
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.5-31
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    • 2000
  • The summit meeting of the South North Korean leaders was a turning point in the relationships between the two countries. It was followed by the Red-Cross Meeting, Minister-Level Meeting, economic agreements, which have increased the relationship more colorful in both quantities and qualities. However, the half-century period for separation was too long to overcome all the problems by only one event. The two countries have quite different social systems; one politically strong person is governing the North, while many interest groups are involved in political decision making processes in the South. In short, it would take a long time to settle down all the problems residing between the two countries. A system dynamics model is developed to describe the long term dynamics of the relations between the South and North Koreas. As a first attempt, the model focuses only on the diplomatic meeting issues between the South and North. The model aggregates diplomatic issues into 5 categories; economic issues, security issues, infrastructure, cultural issues, and past problems. It assumes that there would not be any dramatic changes between the two countries. It is a conceptual model composed of around 200 variables, and should not be used as a forecast tool. However, it captures most of the logics discussed in the papers and conferences concerning the South and North Korea relations. Many sensitivity studies and Monte Carlo simulations have shown that the simulation results matches with mental models of experts; that is the model can be used as a learning tool or as a secondary opinion until the data required by the model is collected. In order to analyze the current situation, five scenarios are simulated and analyzed; the functional approach, the conditional approach, the balanced approach, the circumstantial approach, and the strategic approach. The functional approach represents that the South makes efforts in the area where the possibility of agreement is high for the next 10 years. The conditional approach is a scenario where the South impose all difficult issues as conditions for resolving other diplomatic issues. The balanced approach is resolving the five issues with the same priorities, while the circumstantial approach is resolving issues which seem to be resolved easily. Finally, another optimum approach has been seek using the system dynamics model developed. The optimum strategy (it is named as the strategic approach) was strikingly different from other four approaches. The optimum strategy is so complicated that no one could find it with mental model(or by just insights). Considering that the system dynamic model used to find the optimum is a simplifind (maybe over simplified) version of the reality, it is concluded that a well designed system dynamics model would be of great help to resolving the complicated diplomatic problems in any kind.

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Validation of a New Design of Tellurium Dioxide-Irradiated Target

  • Fllaoui, Aziz;Ghamad, Younes;Zoubir, Brahim;Ayaz, Zinel Abidine;Morabiti, Aissam El;Amayoud, Hafid;Chakir, El Mahjoub
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.1273-1279
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    • 2016
  • Production of iodine-131 by neutron activation of tellurium in tellurium dioxide ($TeO_2$) material requires a target that meets the safety requirements. In a radiopharmaceutical production unit, a new lid for a can was designed, which permits tight sealing of the target by using tungsten inert gaswelding. The leakage rate of all prepared targets was assessed using a helium mass spectrometer. The accepted leakage rate is ${\leq}10^{-4}mbr.L/s$, according to the approved safety report related to iodine-131 production in the TRIGA Mark II research reactor (TRIGA: Training, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics). To confirm the resistance of the new design to the irradiation conditions in the TRIGA Mark II research reactor's central thimble, a study of heat effect on the sealed targets for 7 hours in an oven was conducted and the leakage rates were evaluated. The results show that the tightness of the targets is ensured up to $600^{\circ}C$ with the appearance of deformations on lids beyond $450^{\circ}C$. The study of heat transfer through the target was conducted by adopting a one-dimensional approximation, under consideration of the three transfer modes-convection, conduction, and radiation. The quantities of heat generated by gamma and neutron heating were calculated by a validated computational model for the neutronic simulation of the TRIGA Mark II research reactor using the Monte Carlo N-Particle transport code. Using the heat transfer equations according to the three modes of heat transfer, the thermal study of I-131 production by irradiation of the target in the central thimble showed that the temperatures of materials do not exceed the corresponding melting points. To validate this new design, several targets have been irradiated in the central thimble according to a preplanned irradiation program, going from4 hours of irradiation at a power level of 0.5MWup to 35 hours (7 h/d for 5 days a week) at 1.5MW. The results showthat the irradiated targets are tight because no iodine-131 was released in the atmosphere of the reactor building and in the reactor cooling water of the primary circuit.

Daily Water Intake and Exposure Parameters Related to the Multi-route Exposure in Drinking Water (음용수의 섭취량 및 다경로 노출평가를 위한 노출변수 조사연구)

  • Chung, Yong;Shin, Dong-Chun;Park, Seong-Eun;Choi, Shi-Nai;Park, Seon-Mee
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.11 no.1_2
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 1996
  • Human exposure to volatile compounds in tap water can occur from inhalation and dermal absorption as well as direct ingestion. The relative contribution to total human exposure from these pathways has been considered to be important especially for VOC's (volatile organic compounds). In an attempt to reduce the uncertainty of the risk assessment, it has been suggested that the exposure assessment process could be significantly improved by adopting Monte-Carlo simulation. However, there is no actual data in Korea for each exposure parameter to determine the level of exposure, and the distributional pattern. Therefore, we surveyed water use patterns and behavior related to multi-route exposure to VOC's in household tap water in Korea, and compared these values to the those in western countries. In the first survey, we calculated daily water intake using data from a sample of 1322 persons of several cities in Korea. In the second survey, we obtained questionnaire data on exposure time for showering, bathing and household activities, and tap water intake from 851households in Korea. In the last survey, we measured the exposure parameters (exposure time, water use rate etc.) related to showers, baths, toilets, dish washing, washing and cooking, and tap water intake was surveyed. Also, the subjects were measured their body weight, height and tidal volume, etc. A diary, a flow meter and a measuring cup were used to measure these values as precisely as possible. Average daily water intake was ranged 0.79-1.71 L/day for adults in three surveys. Tap water intake measured by log-sheet during one week in third survey was 1.26 (average), 1.98 L/day (90 percentlie), respectively. These results were comparable with results from EPA (1.4, 2L/day). The average amount of water used by housewives in the third survey was 515.0 $\pm$ 564.6L/day. In usual activity, the amount of water used in the bathroom, the laundry and the kitchen was 140.0 $\pm$ 538.9, 148.0 $\pm$ 174.5, 229.3 $\pm$ 205.4 L/day, respectively. Exposure parameters such as water intake rate, exposure duration, body weight, inhalation rates in surveyed data of Korean people differed from those published from western countries. This could be attributed to variations in lifestyle, dietary habits and physiological characteristics.

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Estimation and Decomposition of Portfolio Value-at-Risk (포트폴리오위험의 추정과 분할방법에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Whan
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.139-169
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    • 2009
  • This paper introduces the modified VaR which takes into account the asymmetry and fat-tails of financial asset distribution, and then compares its out-of-sample forecast performance with traditional VaR model such as historical simulation model and Riskmetrics. The empirical tests using stock indices of 6 countries showed that the modified VaR has the best forecast accuracy. At the test of independence, Riskmetrics and GARCH model showed best performances, but the independence was not rejected for the modified VaR. The Monte Carlo simulation using skew t distribution again proved the best forecast performance of the modified VaR. One of many advantages of the modified VaR is that it is appropriate for measuring VaR of the portfolio, because it can reflect not only the linear relationship but also the nonlinear relationship between individual assets of the portfolio through coskewness and cokurtosis. The empirical analysis about decomposing VaR of the portfolio of 6 stock indices confirmed that the component VaR is very useful for the re-allocation of component assets to achieve higher Sharpe ratio and the active risk management.

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Simulation of Counting Efficiencies of Portable NaI Detector for Rapid Screening of Internal Exposure in Radiation Emergencies (방사선비상시 내부피폭 신속 분류를 위한 휴대용 NaI 검출기의 계측효율 전산모사)

  • Ha, Wi-Ho;Yoo, Jaeryong;Yoon, Seokwon;Pak, Min Jung;Kim, Jong Kyoung
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.211-215
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    • 2015
  • In case of radiation emergencies, radioactive materials released into environments can cause internal exposure of members of the public. Even though whole body counters are widely used for direct measurement of internally deposited radionuclides, those are not likely to be used at the field to rapidly screen internal exposure. In this study, we estimated the counting efficiencies of portable NaI detector for different size BOMAB phantoms using Monte Carlo transport code to apply handheld gamma spectrometers for rapid screening of internal exposure following radiological accidents. As a result of comparison for two counting geometries, counting efficiencies for sitting model were about 1.1 times higher than those for standing model. We found, however, that differences of counting efficiencies according to different size are higher than those according to counting geometry. Therefore, we concluded that when we assess internal exposure of small size people compared to the reference male, the body size should be considered to estimate more accurate radioactivity in the human body because counting efficiencies of 4-year old BOMAB phantom were about 2.4~3.1 times higher than those of reference male BOMAB phantom.

A Comparison Study of Model Parameter Estimation Methods for Prognostics (건전성 예측을 위한 모델변수 추정방법의 비교)

  • An, Dawn;Kim, Nam Ho;Choi, Joo Ho
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.355-362
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    • 2012
  • Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction of a system is important in the prognostics field since it is directly linked with safety and maintenance scheduling. In the physics-based prognostics, accurately estimated model parameters can predict the remaining useful life exactly. It, however, is not a simple task to estimate the model parameters because most real system have multivariate model parameters, also they are correlated each other. This paper presents representative methods to estimate model parameters in the physics-based prognostics and discusses the difference between three methods; the particle filter method(PF), the overall Bayesian method(OBM), and the sequential Bayesian method(SBM). The three methods are based on the same theoretical background, the Bayesian estimation technique, but the methods are distinguished from each other in the sampling methods or uncertainty analysis process. Therefore, a simple physical model as an easy task and the Paris model for crack growth problem are used to discuss the difference between the three methods, and the performance of each method evaluated by using established prognostics metrics is compared.