• Title/Summary/Keyword: Model validation

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GLS와 Bass 모형을 결합한 하이브리드 모형을 이용한 영화 관객 수 예측 (Prediction of movie audience numbers using hybrid model combining GLS and Bass models)

  • 김보경;임창원
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제31권4호
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    • pp.447-461
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    • 2018
  • 국내 영화 산업 매출은 매년 증가하고 있다. 극장은 영화의 1차 판매 경로이며, 극장을 이용하는 관객 수는 부가판권에 영향을 준다. 따라서 극장을 이용하는 관객의 수는 영화 산업 매출에 직결되는 중요한 요소이다. 본 논문에서 특정일의 관객 수를 예측하기 위하여 다중선형회귀모형과 Bass 모형을 결합한 Hybrid 모형을 고려한다. 두 모형을 결합함으로써 회귀분석의 예측값을 Bass 모형의 예측값으로 보정하였다. 분석에는 개봉일이 모두 다른 세 영화를 이용하였다. All subset regression 방법을 이용해 모든 가능한 조합을 생성하고 5중 교차검증(5-fold cross validation)을 통해 5번 모형을 추정한다. 이 때 제곱근평균오차가 가장 작은 모형으로 예측값을 구한 뒤 Bass 모형의 예측값과 결합해 최종 예측값을 구하게 된다. 과거데이터가 존재할수록 Bass 모형의 가중치는 증가하면서 예측값에 보정효과를 준다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

2단계 분배체계를 위한 확률적(Q,r)재고모형 (Stochastic (Q, r) Inventory Model for Two-echelon Distrubution System)

  • 심재홍;최규탁;김정자
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제23권1호
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    • pp.43-65
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    • 1998
  • This paper develops a two-echelon inventory model with time-weighted partial backorders. The presented model assumed to follow continuous review (Q. r) policy for both the retailers and the central warehouse under stochastic demand. A heuristic method to find an optimum-tending solution for total variable system cost per year incurred at the central warehouse and retailers in a system is suggested. To show the usefulness of the above model, numericla examples are illustrated for verification and validation purpose.

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수정이중면 모델의 타당성 분석 (Validation of Modified Two-Surface Model)

  • 김대규
    • 한국산학기술학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국산학기술학회 2007년도 춘계학술발표논문집
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    • pp.276-278
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    • 2007
  • In this study the modified Two-Surface model was validated by comparing the model prediction with the results of the experiments carefully performed. It was seen that the modified Two-Surface model was capable of more realistically simulating the behaviors of clayey specimens, specially over-consolidated specimens. This is attributed mainly to the smooth transition rule from the elastic to elastoplastic regions.

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On the Spectral Eddy Viscosity in Isotropic Turbulence

  • Park Noma;Yoo Jung Yu;Choi Haecheon
    • 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산유체공학회 2003년도 The Fifth Asian Computational Fluid Dynamics Conference
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    • pp.105-106
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    • 2003
  • The spectral eddy viscosity model is investigated through the large eddy simulation of the decaying and forced isotropic turbulence. It is shown that the widely accepted 'plateau and cusp' model overpredicts resolved kinetic energy due to the amplification of energy at intermediate wavenumbers. Whereas, the simple plateau model reproduces a correct energy spectrum. This result overshadows a priori tests based on the filtered DNS or experimental data. An alternative method for the validation of subgrid-scale model is discussed.

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컨테이너항 전산 모의실험 모형의 개발 (A Computer Simulation Model for Container Terminal Systems)

  • 조덕운
    • 대한산업공학회지
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.173-187
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    • 1985
  • A computer simulation model for optimum design and determination of optimal operational parameter values for modern container terminal systems was developed through the use of GASP-IV, a subset of SLAM. Input data reflecting current system configuration and operational practices at Pusan container terminal was used to test the model, which resulted in its validation. Possibilities for application of the model in areas of candidate system comparisons, operational parameter testing and forecasting operational performance under future traffic situations, are explained.

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유사차원해석을 이용한 균일혼합기 GDI 엔진에서의 배기 및 노킹 예측 (Prediction of Emissions and Knocking in a Homogeneous GDI Engine by Quasidimensional model)

  • 이재서;허강열
    • 한국연소학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국연소학회 2012년도 제44회 KOSCO SYMPOSIUM 초록집
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    • pp.107-109
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    • 2012
  • A quasidimensional model is developed with the surrogate mechanism of isooctane and n-heptane to predict knock and emissions of a homogeneous GDI engine. It is composed of unburned and burned zone with the latter divided into multiple zones of equal mass to resolve temperature stratification. Validation is performed against measured pressure traces, NOx and CO emissions at different load and rpm conditions. Comparison is made between the empirical knock model and predictions by the chemistry model in this work.

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Testing the Goodness of Fit of a Parametric Model via Smoothing Parameter Estimate

  • Kim, Choongrak
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • 제30권4호
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    • pp.645-660
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    • 2001
  • In this paper we propose a goodness-of-fit test statistic for testing the (null) parametric model versus the (alternative) nonparametric model. Most of existing nonparametric test statistics are based on the residuals which are obtained by regressing the data to a parametric model. Our test is based on the bootstrap estimator of the probability that the smoothing parameter estimator is infinite when fitting residuals to cubic smoothing spline. Power performance of this test is investigated and is compared with many other tests. Illustrative examples based on real data sets are given.

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