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http://dx.doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2018.31.4.447

Prediction of movie audience numbers using hybrid model combining GLS and Bass models  

Kim, Bokyung (Department of Applied Statistics, Chung-Ang University)
Lim, Changwon (Department of Applied Statistics, Chung-Ang University)
Publication Information
The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics / v.31, no.4, 2018 , pp. 447-461 More about this Journal
Abstract
Domestic film industry sales are increasing every year. Theaters are the primary sales channels for movies and the number of audiences using the theater affects additional selling rights. Therefore, the number of audiences using the theater is an important factor directly linked to movie industry sales. In this paper we consider a hybrid model that combines a multiple linear regression model and the Bass model to predict the audience numbers for a specific day. By combining the two models, the predictive value of the regression analysis was corrected to that of the Bass model. In the analysis, three films with different release dates were used. All subset regression method is used to generate all possible combinations and 5-fold cross validation to estimate the model 5 times. In this case, the predicted value is obtained from the model with the smallest root mean square error and then combined with the predicted value of the Bass model to obtain the final predicted value. With the existence of past data, it was confirmed that the weight of the Bass model increases and the compensation is added to the predicted value.
Keywords
Korean Film Council; generalized least squares method; multiple regression; Bass model; hybrid model;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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