• Title/Summary/Keyword: Model Ensemble

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Prediction of Hindered Settling Velocity of Bidisperse Suspensions (이중 입도 분포를 가진 현탁액의 침강 속도 예측)

  • Koo, Sangkyun
    • Applied Chemistry for Engineering
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.609-616
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    • 2008
  • The present study is concerned with a simple numerical method for estimating the hindered settling velocity of noncolloidal suspensions with bidisperse size distribution of particles. The method is based on an effective-medium theory which uses the conditional ensemble averages for describing the velocity fields or other physical quantities of interest in the suspension system with the particles randomly placed. The effective-medium theory originally developed by Acrivos and Chang[1] for monodisperse suspensions is modified for the bidisperse case. Using the radial distribution functions and stream functions the hindered settling velocity of the suspended particles is calculated numerically. The predictions by the present method are compared with the previous experimental results by Davis and Birdsell[2] and Cheung et al.[3]. It is shown that the estimations by the effective-medium model of the present study reasonably agree with the experimental results.

Simulation of Optimal Runoff Hydrograph Using Ensemble of Radar Rainfall and Blending of RunoffsBasin (레이더 강우 앙상블과 다양한 유출모형의 블랜딩을 활용한 최적 유출곡선 산정)

  • Lee, Myung Jin;Joo, Hong Jun;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.135-135
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    • 2017
  • 최근 강우-유출 모형은 물리적 현상에 근거한 확정론적 모의 모형과 물리적 성분으로 설명할 수 없는 내용에 대해 통계적으로 접근하는 추계학적 모의 모형 등이 계속 연구되고 있어 자연현상에 가까운 결과를 기대할 수 있게 되었다. 하지만 우리나라의 경우 많은 연구에도 불구하고 돌발성 집중호우, 여름철 집중되는 강우 등으로 인해 재난이 반복적으로 발생하고 있어 모형의 정확성에 대한 논의가 지속되고 있다. 동일한 유역에 동일한 입력자료를 사용하더라도 사용하는 모형에 따라 유출 분석결과는 상이하며 이는 유출 해석에 대한 불확실성으로 작용한다. 본 연구에서는 앙상블 및 블랜딩 기법을 사용하여 각 강우-유출 모형의 불확실성을 고려하여 최적 유출량을 산정하고자 한다. 대상 유역으로는 한강 수계에 있는 중랑천 유역을 선정하였으며, Distributed 모형인 Vflo 모형과 Lumped 모형인 저류함수 모형, SSARR모형, TANK 모형을 이용하여 유출 분석을 실시하였다. 그 후, Multi-Model Super Ensemble(MMSE), Simple Model Average(SMA), Mean Square Error(MSE) 방법 등의 blending 기법을 이용하여 하나의 통합된 형태의 유출 분석 결과를 제시하였으며, 최적 유출량 산정을 위한 blending 기법을 선정하였다. 본 연구를 통해 동일한 강우 시나리오에 대한 여러 강우-유출 모형에 대한 정확도를 확인하였으며, 앙상블 및 블랜딩 기법을 사용하여 유출 분석에 대한 정확도를 향상시킬 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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Prediction of Residual Resistance Coefficient of Low-Speed Full Ships Using Hull Form Variables and Machine Learning Approaches (선형변수 기계학습 기법을 활용한 저속비대선의 잉여저항계수 추정)

  • Kim, Yoo-Chul;Yang, Kyung-Kyu;Kim, Myung-Soo;Lee, Young-Yeon;Kim, Kwang-Soo
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.57 no.6
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    • pp.312-321
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    • 2020
  • In this study, machine learning techniques were applied to predict the residual resistance coefficient (Cr) of low-speed full ships. The used machine learning methods are Ridge regression, support vector regression, random forest, neural network and their ensemble model. 19 hull form variables were used as input variables for machine learning methods. The hull form variables and Cr data obtained from 139 hull forms of KRISO database were used in analysis. 80 % of the total data were used as training models and the rest as validation. Some non-linear models showed the overfitted results and the ensemble model showed better results than others.

Validations of Typhoon Intensity Guidance Models in the Western North Pacific (북서태평양 태풍 강도 가이던스 모델 성능평가)

  • Oh, You-Jung;Moon, Il-Ju;Kim, Sung-Hun;Lee, Woojeong;Kang, KiRyong
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2016
  • Eleven Tropical Cyclone (TC) intensity guidance models in the western North Pacific have been validated over 2008~2014 based on various analysis methods according to the lead time of forecast, year, month, intensity, rapid intensity change, track, and geographical area with an additional focus on TCs that influenced the Korean peninsula. From the evaluation using mean absolute error and correlation coefficients for maximum wind speed forecasts up to 72 h, we found that the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) outperforms all others overall although the Global Forecast System (GFS), the Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System of Japan Meteorological Agency (TEPS), and the Korean version of Weather and Weather Research and Forecasting model (KWRF) also shows a good performance in some lead times of forecast. In particular, HWRF shows the highest performance in predicting the intensity of strong TCs above Category 3, which may be attributed to its highest spatial resolution (~3 km). The Navy Operational Global Prediction Model (NOGAPS) and GFS were the most improved model during 2008~2014. For initial intensity error, two Japanese models, Japan Meteorological Agency Global Spectral Model (JGSM) and TEPS, had the smallest error. In track forecast, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and recent GFS model outperformed others. The present results has significant implications for providing basic information for operational forecasters as well as developing ensemble or consensus prediction systems.

Development of Classification Model for hERG Ion Channel Inhibitors Using SVM Method (SVM 방법을 이용한 hERG 이온 채널 저해제 예측모델 개발)

  • Gang, Sin-Moon;Kim, Han-Jo;Oh, Won-Seok;Kim, Sun-Young;No, Kyoung-Tai;Nam, Ky-Youb
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.653-662
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    • 2009
  • Developing effective tools for predicting absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion properties and toxicity (ADME/T) of new chemical entities in the early stage of drug design is one of the most important tasks in drug discovery and development today. As one of these attempts, support vector machines (SVM) has recently been exploited for the prediction of ADME/T related properties. However, two problems in SVM modeling, i.e. feature selection and parameters setting, are still far from solved. The two problems have been shown to be crucial to the efficiency and accuracy of SVM classification. In particular, the feature selection and optimal SVM parameters setting influence each other, which indicates that they should be dealt with simultaneously. In this account, we present an integrated practical solution, in which genetic-based algorithm (GA) is used for feature selection and grid search (GS) method for parameters optimization. hERG ion-channel inhibitor classification models of ADME/T related properties has been built for assessing and testing the proposed GA-GS-SVM. We generated 6 different models that are 3 different single models and 3 different ensemble models using training set - 1891 compounds and validated with external test set - 175 compounds. We compared single model with ensemble model to solve data imbalance problems. It was able to improve accuracy of prediction to use ensemble model.

A Non-annotated Recurrent Neural Network Ensemble-based Model for Near-real Time Detection of Erroneous Sea Level Anomaly in Coastal Tide Gauge Observation (비주석 재귀신경망 앙상블 모델을 기반으로 한 조위관측소 해수위의 준실시간 이상값 탐지)

  • LEE, EUN-JOO;KIM, YOUNG-TAEG;KIM, SONG-HAK;JU, HO-JEONG;PARK, JAE-HUN
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.307-326
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    • 2021
  • Real-time sea level observations from tide gauges include missing and erroneous values. Classification as abnormal values can be done for the latter by the quality control procedure. Although the 3𝜎 (three standard deviations) rule has been applied in general to eliminate them, it is difficult to apply it to the sea-level data where extreme values can exist due to weather events, etc., or where erroneous values can exist even within the 3𝜎 range. An artificial intelligence model set designed in this study consists of non-annotated recurrent neural networks and ensemble techniques that do not require pre-labeling of the abnormal values. The developed model can identify an erroneous value less than 20 minutes of tide gauge recording an abnormal sea level. The validated model well separates normal and abnormal values during normal times and weather events. It was also confirmed that abnormal values can be detected even in the period of years when the sea level data have not been used for training. The artificial neural network algorithm utilized in this study is not limited to the coastal sea level, and hence it can be extended to the detection model of erroneous values in various oceanic and atmospheric data.

Prediction and Analysis of PM2.5 Concentration in Seoul Using Ensemble-based Model (앙상블 기반 모델을 이용한 서울시 PM2.5 농도 예측 및 분석)

  • Ryu, Minji;Son, Sanghun;Kim, Jinsoo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.6_1
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    • pp.1191-1205
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    • 2022
  • Particulate matter(PM) among air pollutants with complex and widespread causes is classified according to particle size. Among them, PM2.5 is very small in size and can cause diseases in the human respiratory tract or cardiovascular system if inhaled by humans. In order to prepare for these risks, state-centered management and preventable monitoring and forecasting are important. This study tried to predict PM2.5 in Seoul, where high concentrations of fine dust occur frequently, using two ensemble models, random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) using 15 local data assimilation and prediction system (LDAPS) weather-related factors, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and 4 chemical factors as independent variables. Performance evaluation and factor importance evaluation of the two models used for prediction were performed, and seasonal model analysis was also performed. As a result of prediction accuracy, RF showed high prediction accuracy of R2 = 0.85 and XGB R2 = 0.91, and it was confirmed that XGB was a more suitable model for PM2.5 prediction than RF. As a result of the seasonal model analysis, it can be said that the prediction performance was good compared to the observed values with high concentrations in spring. In this study, PM2.5 of Seoul was predicted using various factors, and an ensemble-based PM2.5 prediction model showing good performance was constructed.

Comparison of Seismic Data Interpolation Performance using U-Net and cWGAN (U-Net과 cWGAN을 이용한 탄성파 탐사 자료 보간 성능 평가)

  • Yu, Jiyun;Yoon, Daeung
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.140-161
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    • 2022
  • Seismic data with missing traces are often obtained regularly or irregularly due to environmental and economic constraints in their acquisition. Accordingly, seismic data interpolation is an essential step in seismic data processing. Recently, research activity on machine learning-based seismic data interpolation has been flourishing. In particular, convolutional neural network (CNN) and generative adversarial network (GAN), which are widely used algorithms for super-resolution problem solving in the image processing field, are also used for seismic data interpolation. In this study, CNN-based algorithm, U-Net and GAN-based algorithm, and conditional Wasserstein GAN (cWGAN) were used as seismic data interpolation methods. The results and performances of the methods were evaluated thoroughly to find an optimal interpolation method, which reconstructs with high accuracy missing seismic data. The work process for model training and performance evaluation was divided into two cases (i.e., Cases I and II). In Case I, we trained the model using only the regularly sampled data with 50% missing traces. We evaluated the model performance by applying the trained model to a total of six different test datasets, which consisted of a combination of regular, irregular, and sampling ratios. In Case II, six different models were generated using the training datasets sampled in the same way as the six test datasets. The models were applied to the same test datasets used in Case I to compare the results. We found that cWGAN showed better prediction performance than U-Net with higher PSNR and SSIM. However, cWGAN generated additional noise to the prediction results; thus, an ensemble technique was performed to remove the noise and improve the accuracy. The cWGAN ensemble model removed successfully the noise and showed improved PSNR and SSIM compared with existing individual models.

Improving the Classification of Population and Housing Census with AI: An Industry and Job Code Study

  • Byung-Il Yun;Dahye Kim;Young-Jin Kim;Medard Edmund Mswahili;Young-Seob Jeong
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.21-29
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, we propose an AI-based system for automatically classifying industry and occupation codes in the population census. The accurate classification of industry and occupation codes is crucial for informing policy decisions, allocating resources, and conducting research. However, this task has traditionally been performed by human coders, which is time-consuming, resource-intensive, and prone to errors. Our system represents a significant improvement over the existing rule-based system used by the statistics agency, which relies on user-entered data for code classification. In this paper, we trained and evaluated several models, and developed an ensemble model that achieved an 86.76% match accuracy in industry and 81.84% in occupation, outperforming the best individual model. Additionally, we propose process improvement work based on the classification probability results of the model. Our proposed method utilizes an ensemble model that combines transfer learning techniques with pre-trained models. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential for AI-based systems to improve the accuracy and efficiency of population census data classification. By automating this process with AI, we can achieve more accurate and consistent results while reducing the workload on agency staff.

Product Recommender Systems using Multi-Model Ensemble Techniques (다중모형조합기법을 이용한 상품추천시스템)

  • Lee, Yeonjeong;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.39-54
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    • 2013
  • Recent explosive increase of electronic commerce provides many advantageous purchase opportunities to customers. In this situation, customers who do not have enough knowledge about their purchases, may accept product recommendations. Product recommender systems automatically reflect user's preference and provide recommendation list to the users. Thus, product recommender system in online shopping store has been known as one of the most popular tools for one-to-one marketing. However, recommender systems which do not properly reflect user's preference cause user's disappointment and waste of time. In this study, we propose a novel recommender system which uses data mining and multi-model ensemble techniques to enhance the recommendation performance through reflecting the precise user's preference. The research data is collected from the real-world online shopping store, which deals products from famous art galleries and museums in Korea. The data initially contain 5759 transaction data, but finally remain 3167 transaction data after deletion of null data. In this study, we transform the categorical variables into dummy variables and exclude outlier data. The proposed model consists of two steps. The first step predicts customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in the online shopping store. In this step, we first use logistic regression, decision trees, and artificial neural networks to predict customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in each product group. We perform above data mining techniques using SAS E-Miner software. In this study, we partition datasets into two sets as modeling and validation sets for the logistic regression and decision trees. We also partition datasets into three sets as training, test, and validation sets for the artificial neural network model. The validation dataset is equal for the all experiments. Then we composite the results of each predictor using the multi-model ensemble techniques such as bagging and bumping. Bagging is the abbreviation of "Bootstrap Aggregation" and it composite outputs from several machine learning techniques for raising the performance and stability of prediction or classification. This technique is special form of the averaging method. Bumping is the abbreviation of "Bootstrap Umbrella of Model Parameter," and it only considers the model which has the lowest error value. The results show that bumping outperforms bagging and the other predictors except for "Poster" product group. For the "Poster" product group, artificial neural network model performs better than the other models. In the second step, we use the market basket analysis to extract association rules for co-purchased products. We can extract thirty one association rules according to values of Lift, Support, and Confidence measure. We set the minimum transaction frequency to support associations as 5%, maximum number of items in an association as 4, and minimum confidence for rule generation as 10%. This study also excludes the extracted association rules below 1 of lift value. We finally get fifteen association rules by excluding duplicate rules. Among the fifteen association rules, eleven rules contain association between products in "Office Supplies" product group, one rules include the association between "Office Supplies" and "Fashion" product groups, and other three rules contain association between "Office Supplies" and "Home Decoration" product groups. Finally, the proposed product recommender systems provides list of recommendations to the proper customers. We test the usability of the proposed system by using prototype and real-world transaction and profile data. For this end, we construct the prototype system by using the ASP, Java Script and Microsoft Access. In addition, we survey about user satisfaction for the recommended product list from the proposed system and the randomly selected product lists. The participants for the survey are 173 persons who use MSN Messenger, Daum Caf$\acute{e}$, and P2P services. We evaluate the user satisfaction using five-scale Likert measure. This study also performs "Paired Sample T-test" for the results of the survey. The results show that the proposed model outperforms the random selection model with 1% statistical significance level. It means that the users satisfied the recommended product list significantly. The results also show that the proposed system may be useful in real-world online shopping store.