• Title/Summary/Keyword: Mitigation measures

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Improving SARIMA model for reliable meteorological drought forecasting

  • Jehanzaib, Muhammad;Shah, Sabab Ali;Son, Ho Jun;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.141-141
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    • 2022
  • Drought is a global phenomenon that affects almost all landscapes and causes major damages. Due to non-linear nature of contributing factors, drought occurrence and its severity is characterized as stochastic in nature. Early warning of impending drought can aid in the development of drought mitigation strategies and measures. Thus, drought forecasting is crucial in the planning and management of water resource systems. The primary objective of this study is to make improvement is existing drought forecasting techniques. Therefore, we proposed an improved version of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model (MD-SARIMA) for reliable drought forecasting with three years lead time. In this study, we selected four watersheds of Han River basin in South Korea to validate the performance of MD-SARIMA model. The meteorological data from 8 rain gauge stations were collected for the period 1973-2016 and converted into watershed scale using Thiessen's polygon method. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed to represent the meteorological drought at seasonal (3-month) time scale. The performance of MD-SARIMA model was compared with existing models such as Seasonal Naive Bayes (SNB) model, Exponential Smoothing (ES) model, Trigonometric seasonality, Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS) model, and SARIMA model. The results showed that all the models were able to forecast drought, but the performance of MD-SARIMA was robust then other statistical models with Wilmott Index (WI) = 0.86, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) = 0.66, and Root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.80 for 36 months lead time forecast. The outcomes of this study indicated that the MD-SARIMA model can be utilized for drought forecasting.

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Projected Future Extreme Droughts Based on CMIP6 GCMs under SSP Scenarios (SSP 시나리오에 따른 CMIP6 GCM 기반 미래 극한 가뭄 전망)

  • Kim, Song-Hyun;Nam, Won-Ho;Jeon, Min-Gi;Hong, Eun-Mi;Oh, Chansung
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.66 no.4
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2024
  • In recent years, climate change has been responsible for unusual weather patterns on a global scale. Droughts, natural disasters triggered by insufficient rainfall, can inflict significant social and economic consequences on the entire agricultural sector due to their widespread occurrence and the challenge in accurately predicting their onset. The frequency of drought occurrences in South Korea has been rapidly increasing since 2000, with notably severe droughts hitting regions such as Incheon, Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Chungbuk, and Gyeongbuk in 2015, resulting in significant agricultural and social damage. To prepare for future drought occurrences resulting from climate change, it is essential to develop long-term drought predictions and implement corresponding measures for areas prone to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report outlines a climate change scenario under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which integrates projected future socio-economic changes and climate change mitigation efforts derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). SSPs encompass a range of factors including demographics, economic development, ecosystems, institutions, technological advancements, and policy frameworks. In this study, various drought indices were calculated using SSP scenarios derived from 18 CMIP6 global climate models. The SSP5-8.5 scenario was employed as the climate change scenario, and meteorological drought indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Self-Calibrating Effective Drought Index (scEDI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were utilized to analyze the prediction and variability of future drought occurrences in South Korea.

Development of proton test logic of RFSoC and Evaluation of SEU measurement (RFSoC의 양성자 시험 로직 개발 및 SEU 측정 평가)

  • Seung-Chan Yun;Juyoung Lee;Hyunchul Kim;Kyungdeok Yu
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.97-101
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    • 2024
  • In this paper, we present the implementation of proton beam irradiation test logic and test results for Xilinx's RFSoC FPGA. In addition to the FPGA function, RFSoC is a chip that integrates CPU, ADC, and DAC and is attracting attention in the defense and space industries aimed at reducing the size of the chip. In order to use these chips in a space environment, an analysis of radiation effects was required and radiation mitigation measures were required. Through the proton irradiation test, the logic to measure the radiation effect of RFSoC was designed. Logic for comparing values stored in memory with normal values was implemented, and protons were irradiated to RFSoC to measure SEU generated in the block memory area. To alleviate the occurrence of SEU in other areas, TMR and SEM were applied and designed. Through the test results, we intend to verify this test configuration and establish an environment in which logic design for satellites can be verified in the future.

Quantitative risk analysis of industial incidents occurring in trap boats (통발어선에서 발생하는 산업재해에 대한 정량적 위험성 분석)

  • Seung-Hyun LEE;Su-Hyung KIM;Kyung-Jin RYU;Yoo-Won LEE
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.60 no.2
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    • pp.161-169
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    • 2024
  • This study employs Bayesian network analysis to quantitatively evaluate the risk of incidents in trap boats, utilizing accident compensation approval data spanning from 2018 to 2022. With a dataset comprising 1,635 incidents, the analysis reveals a mortality risk of approximately 0.011 across the entire trap boat. The study significantly identifies variations in incident risks contingent upon fishing area and fishing processes. Specifically, incidents are approximately 1.22 times more likely to occur in coastal compared to offshore, and the risk during fishing processes outweighs that during maintenance operations by a factor of approximately 23.20. Furthermore, a detailed examination of incident types reveals varying incidence rates. Trip/slip incidents, for instance, are approximately 1.36 times more prevalent than bump/hit incidents, 1.58 times more than stuck incidents, and a substantial 5.17 times more than fall incidents. The study concludes by providing inferred mortality risks for 16 distinct scenarios, incorporating fishing areas, processes, and incident types. This foundational data offers a tailored approach to risk mitigation, enabling proactive measures suited to specific circumstances and occurrence types in the trap boat industry.

Covid-19 Occupational Risk Incidence and Working Sectors Involved During the Pandemic in Italy

  • Fabio Boccuni;Bruna M. Rondinone;Giuliana Buresti;Adelina Brusco;Andrea Bucciarelli;Silvia D'Amario;Benedetta Persechino;Sergio Iavicoli;Alessandro Marinaccio
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.398-405
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    • 2023
  • Background: Starting from March 2020 until December 2021, different phases of Covid-19 pandemic have been identified in Italy, with several containing/lifting measures progressively enforced by the National government. In the present study, we investigate the change in occupational risk during the subsequent pandemic phases and we propose an estimate of the incidence of the cases by economic sector, based on the analysis of insurance claims for compensation for Covid-19. Methods: Covid-19 epidemiological data available for the general population and injury claims of workers covered by the Italian public insurance system in 2020-2021 were analyzed. Monthly Incidence Rate of Covid-19 compensation claims per 100,000 workers (MIRw) was calculated by the economic sector and compared with the same indicator for general population in different pandemic periods. Results: The distribution of Covid-19 MIRw by sector significantly changed during the pandemic related to both the strength of different waves and the mitigation/lifting strategies enforced. The level of occupational fraction was very high at the beginning phase of the pandemic, decreasing to 5% at the end of 2021. Healthcare and related services were continuously hit but the incidence was significantly decreasing in 2021 in all sectors, except for postal and courier activities in transportation and storage enterprises. Conclusion: The analysis of compensation claim data allowed to identify time trends for infection risk in different working sectors. The claim rates were highest for human health and social work activities but the distribution of risk among sectors was clearly influenced by the different stages of the pandemic.

Status and Improvement of Metropolitan Government Urban Agriculture Ordinances for the Enhancement of Multifunctionality in Urban Agriculture (도시농업의 다원적 기능 활성화를 위한 광역지방자치단체 도시농업 조례 현황 및 개선 방향)

  • Ji-Won Choe;Choong-Hyeon Oh
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.90-107
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    • 2024
  • This study analyzed the status of urban agricultural regulation of metropolitan governments on supporting multi-dimensional values to suggest a direction for improving urban agriculture regulations. Moreover, a Delphi survey was conducted to derive ways to identify improvement opportunities for functions that showed relatively insufficient support for urban agricultural regulations. As a result of the study, 12 out of 17 metropolitan governments and 116 of 226 municipalities have enacted urban agricultural regulations. However, the enactment of urban agricultural regulations has generally declined since 2011. Analysis of the contents of the urban agricultural regulations showed that they focused on matters relating to the creation and expansion of the foundation of urban agriculture. Among the multi-dimensional values of urban agricultural regulations, the foundation for supporting the securing of green spaces and utilizing food production functions was most widely available. On the other hand, the foundation for support of resource recycling, healing and health, social welfare, economic imbalance mitigation, and job creation functions has been shown to be relatively insufficient. A Delphi survey conducted to determine potential measures to improve urban agricultural regulations to support these functions found that 17 of the 18 ordinance improvement measures were valid. Therefore, to revitalize the multi-dimensional values of urban agriculture, it is first necessary to enact new ordinances. Also, to revitalize the multi-dimensional values of urban agriculture evenly, it is necessary to revise the ordinances to include resource recycling, healing and health, social welfare, mitigation of economic imbalances, and job creation functions. In this process, the development of urban agriculture technology, legal review of various urban farming spaces, and fostering of industries related to urban agriculture are necessary. Above all, steady interest in the multi-dimensional values of urban agriculture and the efforts of local governments to foster urban agriculture must be supported.

A Chronological and Legal Study on Mitigation of Height Restriction in Flight Safety Zone around Airports - Mostly Regarding Civilian Airports - (공항 비행안전구역 고도완화의 연혁적 고찰과 해결방안에 관한 정책적·법적 고찰 - 민간 공항 중심으로 -)

  • Shin, Sung-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.225-246
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    • 2020
  • More than technical or academic matter, mitigation of height restriction around airports is about up-dating out-dated policies that have not kept up with rapidly developing aircraft and air traffic control technologies. Above all, instead of calling out 'flight safety' that the public do not comprehend, it is important to examine and carry out measures that can protect people's right of property. MOLIT(Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport) after reviewing ICAO's Obstacle Limitation Surface TF, made an announcement to provide further plans that would apply to contracting states from 2026. However, residents of redevelopment areas near Kimpo international airport asserted that MOLIT's policy overlooks the reality of the redevelopment zone. ICAO, UN's specialized agency for civilian aviation, recommends in Annex 14, 4.2.4 that contracting states conduct an aeronautical study to determine the flight safety of horizontal surface(45m), excluding approach surface, and to mitigate height restrictions if no threat is found. Numerous countries including the United States have been following this recommendation and have been able to effectively protect people's right of property, whereas the South Korean government have not following it so far. The number of height restriction mitigation cases in the recent three months (2019. 7. 15~10. 14.) FAA of the United States have allowed after conducting an aeronautical study reaches 14,706. Japan and Taiwan also reconstruct airspace around airports in metropolitan areas in order to protect people's right of property. Just as the United States is following, MLIT should follow ICAO's recommendation in Annex 14. 4.2.4(Vol. 1. Airport Construction / Operation) and protect people's right of property by first applying aeronautical studies to the horizontal surface(45m) of flight safety zones until the specifics of ICAO's 2026 TF materialize.

A study on measures for the mitigation of fire damage in Korea super high-rise building through the improvement of domestic·foreign standards (국·내외 기준개선을 통한 국내 초고층 건축물의 화재피해경감 대책에 관한 연구)

  • Ko, Jaesun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.233-248
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    • 2017
  • Uniform laws and regulations and reasonable design is necessary for the prevention of possible fire in super high-rise building. To this end, this study focused on super high-rise and massive building-related architectural review performance-based design (PBD) evaluation disaster impact assessment (DIA), and provided fire engineering measures for improving fire prevention on the basis of performance-based design by analyzing the buildings subject to these systems and problems in terms of contents. Above all, in the aspect of law and standard improvement, first, with regard to dual parts of two statutes though significant portion of them has the same contents in performance-based design (PBD) evaluation and disaster impact assessment (DIA), it is necessary to operate the systems after making them conform with each other and consolidating or abolishing them. Second, if it is impossible to consolidate or abolish performance-based design (PBD) evaluation and disaster impact assessment (DIA), the areas of contents of performance-based design (PBD) evaluation and disaster impact assessment (DIA) should be precisely classified and established. Next, engineering improvement measures against fire hazard in super high-rise building are as follows. First, it is necessary to revise the provisions of straight-run stairs in special escape stairs. And in case of installing a mechanical smoke exhaust system instead of smoke vent, sandwich pressurization used in the United Stated should be permitted. Second, with regard to smoke control system for special escape stairs, it was shown that there was necessity for revising the standards in order to enable air to be supplied according to section in case of fire, carrying out performance-based design, and the like from the early design stages to the completion stages. In the future, it is expected that an epoch-making contribution will be made to a decrease in casualties and property damage due to fire in case of super high-rise building where the results can be reflected after carrying out a study on maintenance and carrying out an additional study on other considerations of super high-rise building together with reflecting the improvement measures provided in the above-mentioned study.

A Function and Weight Selection of Ecosystem Service Function for the Eco-friendly Protected Horticulture Complex in Agricultural Landscape (시설원예단지의 친환경적 조성을 위한 생태계서비스 기능 및 가중치 산정)

  • SON, Jinkwan;KONG, Minjae;SHIN, Yukung;YUN, Sungwook;KANG, Donghyeon;Park, Minjung;LEE, Siyoung
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.533-541
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    • 2017
  • Agricultural landscape has many ecosystem service functions. However, the development of the horticulture complex has no consideration for environmental conservation. Therefore, we analyzed the priorities of ecosystem service functions required for the composition. The study was conducted in three stages. As a result of the first survey, 17 functions were selected to be improved. In the second survey, 12 functions were selected excluding 5 functions. Finally, 1. Measures for water purification, 2. Groundwater recharge plan, 3. Surface water storage space, 4. Flood control measures, 5. Vegetation diversity space, 6. Carbon emission reduction plan, 7. Aquatic insect habitat space, 8. Amphibian reptiles 9. Landscape and Waste Management, 10. Bird Species Space, 11. Heat Island Mitigation Plan, 12. Experience / Ecological Education Plan. We proposed the structure, capacity, flow rate, arrangement and form of the water treatment facility to improve water quality by improving the function. We proposed a reservoir space of 7-10% for groundwater recharge. The development of reservoir and storage facilities suitable for the Korean situation is suggested for the surface water storage and flood control measures. And proposed to secure a green space for the climate cycle. Proposed habitat and nutrient discharge management for biodiversity. We propose green area development and wetland development to improve the landscape, and put into the facilities for experiential education. The results of the research can be utilized for the development and improvement of the horticultural complex.

Analysis of Climate Change Adaptation Researches Related to Health in South Korea (한국의 건강 분야 기후변화적응 연구동향 분석)

  • Ha, Jongsik
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.139-151
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    • 2014
  • It is increasingly supported by scientific evidence that greenhouse gas caused by human activities is changing the global climate. In particular, the changing climate has affected human health, directly or indirectly, and its adverse impacts are estimated to increase in the future. In response, many countries have established and implemented a variety of mitigation and adaptation measures. However, it is significant to note that climate change will continue over the next few centuries and its impacts on human health should be tackled urgently. The purpose of this paper is to examine domestic policies and research in health sector in adaptation to climate change. It further aims to recommend future research directions for enhanced response to climate change in public health sector, by reviewing a series of adaptation policies in the selected countries and taking into account the general features of health adaptation policies. In this regard, this study first evaluates the current adaptation policies in public health sector by examining the National Climate Change Adaptation Master Plan(2011~2015) and Comprehensive Plan for Environment and Health(2011~2020) and reviewing research to date of the government and relevant institutions. For the literature review, two information service systems are used: namely, the National Science and Technology Information Service(NTIS) and the Policy Research Information Service & Management(PRISM). Secondly, a series of foreign adaptation policies are selected based on the global research priorities set by WHO (2009) and reviewed in order to draw implications for domestic research. Finally, the barriers or constraints in establishing and implementing health adaptation policies are analyzed qualitatively, considering the general characteristics of adaptation in the health sector to climate change, which include uncertainty, finance, technology, institutions, and public awareness. This study provides four major recommendations: to mainstream health sector in the field of adaptation policy and research; to integrate cross-sectoral adaptation measures with an aim to the improvement of health and well-being of the society; to enhance the adaptation measures based on evidence and cost-effectiveness analysis; and to facilitate systemization in health adaptation through setting the key players and the agenda.