• Title/Summary/Keyword: Metropolis

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Posterior Inference in Single-Index Models

  • Park, Chun-Gun;Yang, Wan-Yeon;Kim, Yeong-Hwa
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.161-168
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    • 2004
  • A single-index model is useful in fields which employ multidimensional regression models. Many methods have been developed in parametric and nonparametric approaches. In this paper, posterior inference is considered and a wavelet series is thought of as a function approximated to a true function in the single-index model. The posterior inference needs a prior distribution for each parameter estimated. A prior distribution of each coefficient of the wavelet series is proposed as a hierarchical distribution. A direction $\beta$ is assumed with a unit vector and affects estimate of the true function. Because of the constraint of the direction, a transformation, a spherical polar coordinate $\theta$, of the direction is required. Since the posterior distribution of the direction is unknown, we apply a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to generate random samples of the direction. Through a Monte Carlo simulation we investigate estimates of the true function and the direction.

Bayesian Inference for Switching Mean Models with ARMA Errors

  • Son, Young Sook;Kim, Seong W.;Cho, Sinsup
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.981-996
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    • 2003
  • Bayesian inference is considered for switching mean models with the ARMA errors. We use noninformative improper priors or uniform priors. The fractional Bayes factor of O'Hagan (1995) is used as the Bayesian tool for detecting the existence of a single change or multiple changes and the usual Bayes factor is used for identifying the orders of the ARMA error. Once the model is fully identified, the Gibbs sampler with the Metropolis-Hastings subchains is constructed to estimate parameters. Finally, we perform a simulation study to support theoretical results.

Sampling Based Approach to Bayesian Analysis of Binary Regression Model with Incomplete Data

  • Chung, Young-Shik
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.493-505
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    • 1997
  • The analysis of binary data appears to many areas such as statistics, biometrics and econometrics. In many cases, data are often collected in which some observations are incomplete. Assume that the missing covariates are missing at random and the responses are completely observed. A method to Bayesian analysis of the binary regression model with incomplete data is presented. In particular, the desired marginal posterior moments of regression parameter are obtained using Meterpolis algorithm (Metropolis et al. 1953) within Gibbs sampler (Gelfand and Smith, 1990). Also, we compare logit model with probit model using Bayes factor which is approximated by importance sampling method. One example is presented.

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Bayesian Modeling of Mortality Rates for Colon Cancer

  • Kim Hyun-Joong
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.177-190
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    • 2006
  • The aim of this study is to propose a Bayesian model for fitting mortality rate of colon cancer. For the analysis of mortality rate of a disease, factors such as age classes of population and spatial characteristics of the location are very important. The model proposed in this study allows the age class to be a random effect in addition to its conventional role as the covariate of a linear regression, while the spatial factor being a random effect. The model is fitted using Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Posterior expected predictive deviances, standardized residuals, and residual plots are used for comparison of models. It is found that the proposed model has smaller residuals and better predictive accuracy. Lastly, we described patterns in disease maps for colon cancer.

The Exponentiated Weibull-Geometric Distribution: Properties and Estimations

  • Chung, Younshik;Kang, Yongbeen
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.147-160
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, we introduce the exponentiated Weibull-geometric (EWG) distribution which generalizes two-parameter exponentiated Weibull (EW) distribution introduced by Mudholkar et al. (1995). This proposed distribution is obtained by compounding the exponentiated Weibull with geometric distribution. We derive its cumulative distribution function (CDF), hazard function and the density of the order statistics and calculate expressions for its moments and the moments of the order statistics. The hazard function of the EWG distribution can be decreasing, increasing or bathtub-shaped among others. Also, we give expressions for the Renyi and Shannon entropies. The maximum likelihood estimation is obtained by using EM-algorithm (Dempster et al., 1977; McLachlan and Krishnan, 1997). We can obtain the Bayesian estimation by using Gibbs sampler with Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Also, we give application with real data set to show the flexibility of the EWG distribution. Finally, summary and discussion are mentioned.

Strength Prediction and Optimum Design of Internally Ring-Stiffened Tubular X-and T-Joints (내부 환보강 X형 및 T형 관이음부의 강도산정과 최적설계)

  • Cho, Hyun-Man;Ryu, Yeon-Sun;Lee, Hyun-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2007.04a
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    • pp.315-320
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    • 2007
  • An effective reinforcement method for steel tubular joints having a large chord diameter is the use of internal ring stiffeners. This paper presents the results of a numerical study on the static strength of internally ring-stiffened tubular X- and T-joints subjected to brace axial compression loading. Nonlinear finite element analyses are used to compute the joint strength. The influence of geometrical parameters has been studied and the maximum reinforcement effect of a ring stiffener has been evaluated. A strength ratio is defined. by the ratio of ring-stiffened joint strength to unstiffened joint strength, and an equation for this strength ratio is derived by regression analysis. Design optimization for ring stiffener of tubular joints is carried out using metropolis genetic algorithm.

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Bayesian Approach for Software Reliability Models (소프트웨어 신뢰모형에 대한 베이지안 접근)

  • Choi, Ki-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.119-133
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    • 1999
  • A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is developed to compute the software reliability model. We consider computation problem for determining of posterior distibution in Bayseian inference. Metropolis algorithms along with Gibbs sampling are proposed to preform the Bayesian inference of the Mixed model with record value statistics. For model determiniation, we explored the prequential conditional predictive ordinate criterion that selects the best model with the largest posterior likelihood among models using all possible subsets of the component intensity functions. To relax the monotonic intensity function assumptions. A numerical example with simulated data set is given.

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An Comparative Study of Metaheuristic Algorithms for the Optimum Design of Structures (구조물 최적설계를 위한 메타휴리스틱 알고리즘의 비교 연구)

  • RYU, Yeon-Sun;CHO, Hyun-Man
    • Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.544-551
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    • 2017
  • Metaheuristic algorithms are efficient techniques for a class of mathematical optimization problems without having to deeply adapt to the inherent nature of each problem. They are very useful for structural design optimization in which the cost of gradient computation can be very expensive. Among them, the characteristics of simulated annealing and genetic algorithms are briefly discussed. In Metropolis genetic algorithm, favorable features of Metropolis criterion in simulated annealing are incorporated in the reproduction operations of simple genetic algorithm. Numerical examples of structural design optimization are presented. The example structures are truss, breakwater and steel box girder bridge. From the theoretical evaluation and numerical experience, performance and applicability of metaheuristic algorithms for structural design optimization are discussed.

Estimating the Heat Island Development Using Landsat TM and AMeDAS Data

  • Harada, Ippei;M.A., Mohammed Aslam;Kondoh, Akihiko
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.450-452
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    • 2003
  • In the present investigation, an estimation of the growth of heat island development of Tokyo metropolis which accounts nearly 100 sq. km of areal spread has been carried out. Band 6 data of LANDSAT TM (Thematic Mapper) data acquired on August 1984 and 1994 have been used for estimating the expansion of the heat island development. Since the vegetation decrease is usually associated with the heat island development, a ratio of green covering has also been assessed using TM data. In order to establish the relationship with the air temperature, AMeDAS(Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System) data have been correlated.

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Bayesian Multiple Change-Point Estimation of Multivariate Mean Vectors for Small Data

  • Cheon, Sooyoung;Yu, Wenxing
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.999-1008
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    • 2012
  • A Bayesian multiple change-point model for small data is proposed for multivariate means and is an extension of the univariate case of Cheon and Yu (2012). The proposed model requires data from a multivariate noncentral $t$-distribution and conjugate priors for the distributional parameters. We apply the Metropolis-Hastings-within-Gibbs Sampling algorithm to the proposed model to detecte multiple change-points. The performance of our proposed algorithm has been investigated on simulated and real dataset, Hanwoo fat content bivariate data.