• Title/Summary/Keyword: Meteorological Modeling

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Improvement and Evaluation of Emission Formulas in UM-CMAQ-Pollen Model (UM-CMAQ-Pollen 모델의 참나무 꽃가루 배출량 산정식 개선과 예측성능 평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Hee;Seo, Yun Am;Kim, Kyu Rang;Cho, Changbum;Han, Mae Ja
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2019
  • For the allergy patient who needs to know the situation about the extent of pollen risk, the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences developed a pollen forecasting system based on the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling (CMAQ). In the old system, pollen emission from the oak was estimated just based on the airborne concentration and meteorology factors, resulted in high uncertainty. For improving the quality of current pollen forecasting system, therefore the estimation of pollen emission is now corrected based on the observation of pollen emission at the oak forest to better reflect the real emission pattern. In this study, the performance of the previous (NIMS2014) and current (NIMS2016) model system was compared using observed oak pollen concentration. Daily pollen concentrations and emissions were simulated in pollen season 2016 and accuracy of onset and end of pollen season were evaluated. In the NIMS2014 model, pollen season was longer than actual pollen season; The simulated pollen season started 6 days earlier and finished 13.25 days later than the actual pollen season. The NIMS2016 model, however, the simulated pollen season started only 1.83 days later, and finished 0.25 days later than the actual pollen season, showing the improvement to predict the temporal range of pollen events. Also, the NIMS2016 model shows better performance for the prediction of pollen concentration, while there is a still large uncertainty to capture the maximum pollen concentration at the target site. Continuous efforts to correct these problems will be required in the future.

Impact of Future Air Quality in East Asia under SSP Scenarios (SSP 시나리오에 따른 동아시아 대기질 미래 전망)

  • Shim, Sungbo;Seo, Jeongbyn;Kwon, Sang-Hoon;Lee, Jae-Hee;Sung, Hyun Min;Boo, Kyung-On;Byun, Young-Hwa;Lim, Yoon-Jin;Kim, Yeon-Hee
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.439-454
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    • 2020
  • This study investigates the change in the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration and World Health Organization (WHO) air quality index (AQI) in East Asia (EA) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). AQI is an indicator of increasing levels about health concern, divided into six categories based on PM2.5 annual concentrations. Here, we utilized the ensemble results of UKESM1, the climate model operated in Met Office, UK, for the analysis of long-term variation during the historical (1950~2014) and future (2015~2100) period. The results show that the spatial distributions of simulated PM2.5 concentrations in present-day (1995~2014) are comparable to observations. It is found that most regions in EA exceeded the WHO air quality guideline except for Japan, Mongolia regions, and the far seas during the historical period. In future scenarios containing strong air quality (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) and medium air quality (SSP2-4.5) controls, PM2.5 concentrations are substantially reduced, resulting in significant improvement in AQI until the mid-21st century. On the other hand, the mild air pollution controls in SSP3-7.0 tend to lead poor AQI in China and Korea. This study also examines impact of increased in PM2.5 concentrations on downward shortwave energy at the surface. As a result, strong air pollution controls can improve air quality through reduced PM2.5 concentrations, but lead to an additional warming in both the near and mid-term future climate over EA.

INFLUNCE OF THE TOPOGRAPHIC INTERPOLATION METHODS ON HIGH-RESOLUTION WIND FIELD SIMULATION WITH SRTM ELEVATION DATA OVER THE COASTAL AREA

  • Kim, Yoo-Keun;Lo, So-Young;Jeong, Ju-Hee
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.297-300
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    • 2008
  • High-resolution mesoscale meteorological modeling requires more accurate and higher resolution digital elevation model (DEM) data. Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) has created 90 m DEM for entire globe and that is freely available for meteorological modeling and environmental applications. In this research, the effects of the topographic interpolation methods on high-resolution wind field simulation in the coastal regions were quantitatively analyzed using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with SRTM data. Sensitivity experiments with three different interpolation schemes (four-point bilinear, sixteen-point overlapping parabolic and nearest neighbor interpolation methods) were preformed using SRTM. In WRF modeling with sixteen-point overlapping parabolic interpolation, the coastal line and some small islands show more clearly than other cases. The maximum height of inland is around 140 meters higher, while the minimum of sea height is about 80 meter lower. As it concerns the results of each scheme it seems that the sixteen-point overlapping parabolic scheme indicates the well agreement with observed surface wind data. Consequently, topographic changes due to interpolation methods can lead to the significant influence on mesoscale wind field simulation of WRF modeling.

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A Study on Fine Dust Modeling for Air Quality Prediction (미세먼지 확산 모델링을 이용한 대기질 예측 시스템에 대한 연구)

  • Yoo, Ji-Hyun
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1136-1140
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    • 2020
  • As air pollution caused by fine dust becomes serious, interest in the spread of fine dust and prediction of air quality is increasing. The causes of fine dust are very diverse, and some fine dust naturally occurs through forest fires and yellow dust, but most of them are known to be caused by air pollutants from burning fossil fuels such as petroleum and coal or from automobile exhaust gas. In this paper, the CALPUFF model recommended by the US EPA is used, and CALPUFF diffusion modeling is performed by generating a wind field through the CALMET model as a meteorological preprocessing program that generates a three-dimensional wind field, which is a meteorological element required by CALPUFF. Through this, we propose a fine dust diffusion modeling and air quality prediction system that reflects complex topography.

Policy Studies for Advancing Aerosol Research on Climate Change in Korea (기후변화 대응 에어러솔 연구 발전을 위한 정책 연구)

  • Kim, Jiyoung;Lee, YongSeob;Shin, Im Chul
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.49-61
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    • 2010
  • Atmospheric aerosols play a crucial role for changing climate, resulting in a wide range of uncertainty for future climate prediction. In this paper we review current international research status and trend of climate-related aerosol science. There have been carried out a number of campaigns (including ACE-Asia, TRACE-P, ABC, and so on) and special experiments with some modeling studies over Korea, East Asia, and the Northwestern Pacific to characterize the various properties (physical, chemical, optical, and radiative) of Asian aerosols and evaluate their climate forcing impacts. But some parts of the aerosol research may need to be improved, advanced, or newly launched. Especially, a chemical transport model (CTM) embedded by a general circulation model (GCM) should be developed by the national scientific community with a high research priority, actively collaborating with international community in order to estimate direct and indirect global radiative forcing due to anthropogenic and natural aerosols.

Analysis on Signal Interference with Characteristic Modeling of High Power Amplifier (고 출력증폭기의 특성 모델링에 따른 신호 간섭 분석)

  • Park Durk-Jong;Ahn Sang-Il
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2006.03a
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    • pp.377-380
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    • 2006
  • 본 논문에서는 통신해양기상위성의 지상국에 구축된 고 출력증폭기에 대한 특성 모델링 및 이에 따른 입력신호에 따른 출력 신호의 상호 간섭에 대한 결과가 정리되어 있다. 고 출력증폭기는 지상국에서 위성으로 신호를 전송할 때 필요한 장비로써 비선형 특성으로 인해 입력된 신호에 대한 다양한 하모닉 성분이 발생된다. 특히 통신해양 기상위성의 지상국의 경우에는 하나의 고 출력증폭기에 대해 두개의 서로 다른 주파수의 신호를 입력해야 하는 것을 고려해야 하기 때문에 이에 대한 영향은 사전에 반드시 분석되어야 한다. 본 논문에서는 고출력증폭기의 P1dB 특성곡선에 의해 특성 모델링을 수행한 결과 및 이러한 모델을 검증하기 위해 이미 정의된 두 신호에 대한 간섭의 양을 확인하였다. 특히 고 출력 증폭기의 전단에 속하는 상향 주파수 변환기의 특성을 고려한 신호를 사용하여 실제의 통신해양기상위성으로 데이터를 전송할 때의 결과를 얻는데 중점을 두었다. 그 결과 상호간의 간섭에 의해 발생되는 신호는 실제 보내고자 하는 신호의 대역과 매우 가깝게 있으며 그 크기는 보내고자 하는 신호의 특성에 따라 달라지는 것을 확인 할 수 있었다.

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Development of Prediction Model for Renewable Energy Environmental Variables Based on Kriging Techniques (크리깅 기법 기반 재생에너지 환경변수 예측 모형 개발)

  • Choy, Youngdo;Baek, Jahyun;Jeon, Dong-Hoon;Park, Sang-Ho;Choi, Soonho;Kim, Yeojin;Hur, Jin
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.223-228
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    • 2019
  • In order to integrate large amounts of variable generation resources such as wind and solar reliably into power grids, accurate renewable energy forecasting is necessary. Since renewable energy generation output is heavily influenced by environmental variables, accurate forecasting of power generation requires meteorological data at the point where the plant is located. Therefore, a spatial approach is required to predict the meteorological variables at the interesting points. In this paper, we propose the meteorological variable prediction model for enhancing renewable generation output forecasting model. The proposed model is implemented by three geostatistical techniques: Ordinary kriging, Universal kriging and Co-kriging.

Derivation of New Box Model to Analyze the Air Pollution Trends in a Metropolitan Area (대도시 대기오염 추세 분석을 위한 새로운 박스모델의 유도)

  • Kim Seogcheol;Joh Seunghun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.377-397
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    • 2005
  • A new box model is proposed to describe the dynamic trend of the spatially averaged concentrations of pollutants over a large urban area such as metropolitan Seoul. Being averaged temporally and spatially over a thresh-hold scales, the dynamics of the pollutant concentration becomes simple enough that the governing equation can be expressed in an explicit algebraic form as a function of several meteorological factors and the pollutant emission rate. The single most important meteorological factor is the wind speed dominating the daily variations of the pollutant concentrations. Given the meteorological data from the surface station in the metropolitan Seoul, the model concentration shows excellent agreement with observations from January 1, 1990 to December 31, 2000: the modeling uncertainty, for example, of $NO_2$ concentrations, defined as mean differences between the model concentrations and observations is $16\%$ of the model concentrations. Even for $PM_{10}$ of which secondary sources are considered to be very important and simple box model is irrelevant to, the model performance turns out good, modeling uncertainty being about $32\%$.

Sensibility Study for PBL Scheme of WRF-CMAQ (PBL Scheme에 대한 WRF-CMAQ 민감도 분석)

  • Moon, Nan-Kyoung;Kim, Soon-Tae;Seo, Ji-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.791-804
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    • 2011
  • Numerical simulations were carried out to investigate the impact of PBL (Planetary boundary layer) scheme implemented in WRF on the result of meteorological fields and CMAQ modeling. 25-day period, representing high ozone concentration, was selected for the simulations. The three WRF domains covered East Asia region, Korean Peninsula and Seoul metropolitan area. The sensitivity of WRF-CMAQ modeling to the various PBL schemes was assessed and quantified by comparing model output and against observation from the meteorological and the air quality monitoring network within the domain. The meteorological variables evaluated included temperature, wind speed and direction over surface sites and upper air sounding sites. The CMAQ variables included gaseous species $O_3$ and $NO_x$ over monitoring stations. Although difference of PBL schemes implemented in WRF, they did not appreciably affect the WRF and CMAQ performance. There are partially differences between non-local and local mixing scheme, but are not distinct differences for the results of weather and air quality. It is suggested that impact of parameterization of vertical eddy diffusivity scheme in CMAQ also need to be researched in the future study.