• 제목/요약/키워드: Maximum wind speed estimation

검색결과 53건 처리시간 0.021초

태풍으로 인한 강풍 피해 추정을 위한 지상풍 산정 연구(Ⅰ) (Estimation of Surface Wind Speed on the Strong Wind Damage by Typhoon)

  • 박종길;정우식;최효진
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국방재학회 2008년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
    • /
    • pp.85-88
    • /
    • 2008
  • Damage from typhoon disaster can be mitigated by grasping and dealing with the damage promptly for the regions in typhoon track. What is this work, a technique to analyzed dangerousness of typhoon should be presupposed. This study estimated 10m level wind speed using 700hPa wind by typhoon, referring to GPS dropwindsonde study of Franklin(2003). For 700hPa wind, 30km resolution data of Regional Data Assimilation Prediction System(RDAPS) were used. For roughness length in estimating wind of 10m level, landuse data of USGS are employed. For 10m level wind speed of Typhoon Rusa in 2002, we sampled AWS point of $7.4\sim30km$ distant from typhoon center and compare them with observational data. The results show that the 10m level wind speed is the estimation of maximum wind speed which can appear in surface by typhoon and it cannot be compared with general hourly observational data. Wind load on domestic buildings relies on probability distributions of extreme wind speed. Hence, calculated 10m level wind speed is useful for estimating the damage structure from typhoon.

  • PDF

Output Power Control of Wind Generation System using Estimated Wind Speed by Support Vector Regression

  • Abo-Khalil Ahmed G.;Lee Dong-Choon
    • 전력전자학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 전력전자학회 2006년도 전력전자학술대회 논문집
    • /
    • pp.345-347
    • /
    • 2006
  • In this paper, a novel method for wind speed estimation in wind power generation systems is presented. The proposed algorithm is based on estimating the wind speed using Support-Vector-Machines for regression (SVR). The wind speed is estimated using the generator power-speed characteristics as a set of training vectors. SVR is trained off-line to predict a continuos-valued function between the system's inputs and wind speed value. The predicted off-line function as well as the instantaneous generator power and speed are then used to determine the unknown winds speed on-line. The simulation results show that SVR can define the corresponding wind speed rapidly and accurately to determine the optimum generator speed reference for maximum power point tracking.

  • PDF

Mathematical modeling of wind power estimation using multiple parameter Weibull distribution

  • Chalamcharla, Seshaiah C.V.;Doraiswamy, Indhumathy D.
    • Wind and Structures
    • /
    • 제23권4호
    • /
    • pp.351-366
    • /
    • 2016
  • Nowadays, wind energy is the most rapidly developing technology and energy source and it is reusable. Due to its cleanliness and reusability, there have been rapid developments made on transferring the wind energy systems to electric energy systems. Converting the wind energy to electrical energy can be done only with the wind turbines. So installing a wind turbine depends on the wind speed at that location. The expected wind power can be estimated using a perfect probability distribution. In this paper Weibull and Weibull distribution with multiple parameters has been used in deriving the mathematical expression for estimating the wind power. Statistically the parameters of Weibull and Weibull distribution are estimated using the maximum likelihood techniques. We derive a probability distribution for the power output of a wind turbine with given rated wind speeds for the regions where the wind speed histograms present a bimodal pdf and compute the first order moment of this distribution.

태풍 연직프로파일과 gust factor를 이용한 지상의 최대풍속 추정 (Estimation of the Maximum Wind to Surface Using Wind Profile in Typhoon and Gust Factor)

  • 정우식;박종길;최효진
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국신재생에너지학회 2008년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
    • /
    • pp.290-292
    • /
    • 2008
  • we applied Wind Field Module of PHRLM so that disaster prevention agency concerned can effectively estimate the possible strong wind damages by typhoon. In this study, therefore, we estimated wind speed at 300m level using 700hPa wind according to the research method by Franklin(2003), PHRLM(2003), and Vickery and Skerlj(2005). Then we calculated wind speed at 10m level using the estimated wind speed at 300m level, and finally, peak 3.second gust on surface. The case period is from 18LST August 31 to 03LST September 1, 2002, when the typhoon Rusa in 2002 was the most intense. Among disaster prediction models in the US, Wind Field Module of PHRLM in Florida was used for the 2002 typhoon Rusa case. As a result, peak 3.second gust on the surface increased $10\sim20%$ in the typhoon's 700hPa wind speed.

  • PDF

재해석자료를 이용한 한반도 해상의 기준풍속 추정 (Estimation of Reference Wind Speeds in Offshore of the Korean Peninsula Using Reanalysis Data Sets)

  • 김현구;김보영;강용혁;하영철
    • 신재생에너지
    • /
    • 제17권4호
    • /
    • pp.1-8
    • /
    • 2021
  • To determine the wind turbine class in the offshore of the Korean Peninsula, the reference wind speed for a 50-y return period at the hub height of a wind turbine was estimated using the reanalysis data sets. The most recent reanalysis data, ERA5, showed the highest correlation coefficient (R) of 0.82 with the wind speed measured by the Southwest offshore meteorological tower. However, most of the reanaysis data sets except CFSR underestimated the annual maximum wind speed. The gust factor of converting the 1 h-average into the 10 min-average wind speed was 1.03, which is the same as the WMO reference, using several meteorological towers and lidar measurements. Because the period, frequency, and path of typhoons invading the Korean Peninsula has been changing owing to the climate effect, significant differences occurred in the estimation of the extreme wind speed. Depending on the past data period and length, the extreme wind speed differed by more than 30% and the extreme wind speed decreased as the data period became longer. Finally, a reference wind speed map around the Korean Peninsula was drawn using the data of the last 10 years at the general hub-height of 100 m above the sea level.

태풍시기의 강풍피해 예측을 위한 지상풍 산정에 관한 연구(I) (The Study on the Strong Wind Damage Prediction for Estimation Surface Wind Speed of Typhoon Season(I))

  • 박종길;정우식;최효진
    • 한국환경과학회지
    • /
    • 제17권2호
    • /
    • pp.195-201
    • /
    • 2008
  • Damage from typhoon disaster can be mitigated by grasping and dealing with the damage promptly for the regions in typhoon track. What is this work, a technique to analyzed dangerousness of typhoon should be presupposed. This study estimated 10 m level wind speed using 700 hPa wind by typhoon, referring to GPS dropwindsonde study of Franklin(2003). For 700 hPa wind, 30 km resolution data of Regional Data Assimilation Prediction System(RDAPS) were used. For roughness length in estimating wind of 10 m level, landuse data of USGS are employed. For 10 m level wind speed of Typhoon Rusa in 2002, we sampled AWS site of $7.4{\sim}30km$ distant from typhoon center and compare them with observational data. The results show that the 10 m level wind speed is the estimation of maximum wind speed which can appear in surface by typhoon and it cannot be compared with general hourly observational data. Wind load on domestic buildings relies on probability distributions of extreme wind speed. Hence, calculated 10 m level wind speed is useful for estimating the damage structure from typhoon.

A review of tropical cyclone wind field models

  • Wills, J.A.B.;Lee, B.E.;Wyatt, T.A.
    • Wind and Structures
    • /
    • 제3권2호
    • /
    • pp.133-142
    • /
    • 2000
  • Engineered structures such as buildings and bridges in certain regions of the world need to be designed to withstand tropical cyclone winds, otherwise known as typhoons or hurricanes. In order to carry out this design, it is necessary to be able to estimate the maximum wind speeds likely to be encountered by the structure over its expected lifetime, say 100 years. Estimation of the maximum wind involves not only the overall strength of the tropical cyclone, but the variation of wind speed with radius from the centre, circumferential position, and with height above the ground surface. In addition, not only the mean wind speed, but also the gust factor must usually be estimated as well. This paper investigates a number of recent mathematical models of tropical cyclone structure and comments on their suitability for these purposes in a variety of scenarios.

광양 - 묘도 지역의 통계학적인 풍속 추정 (Statistical Estimation of Wind Speed in the Gwangyang-Myodo Region)

  • 배용귀;한관문;이성로
    • 대한토목학회논문집
    • /
    • 제28권2A호
    • /
    • pp.197-205
    • /
    • 2008
  • 본 연구에서는 광양-묘도 지역의 평균풍속을 추정하기 위하여, 일별 최대 풍속과 해당 방향에 대한 결합분포확률의 통계학적 해석에 극한값 확률분포 모델이 사용되었다. 이를 위하여, 교량 가설지점 인근의 기상관측소에 대한 일별 최대풍속 및 해당풍향의 데이터로부터 각각의 관측소에 대한 일별 최대기록의 빈도를 조사하였으며, 16방위 및 전방위에 대한 년 최대풍속의 표본을 추출하였다. 이러한 풍속기록은 Gumbel 및 Weibull 분포모델에 적용하였으며, 모멘트방법 및 최소제곱법 등을 통해 모수를 추정하였다. 또한, PPCC 검사를 통해 분포모델 및 모수의 적합 여부를 검사하였다. 적합 여부가 판단된 모수로부터, 해당 관측소별로 데이터의 표본 크기 및 교량 가설지점으로부터의 거리에 대한 요소를 고려하여 16방위 및 전방위에 대한 년 최대풍속을 추정하였다.

NCAR 재해석 자료를 이용한 극한풍속 예측 (An Estimation of Extreme Wind Speeds Using NCAR Reanalysis Data)

  • 김병민;김현기;권순열;유능수;백인수
    • 산업기술연구
    • /
    • 제35권
    • /
    • pp.95-102
    • /
    • 2015
  • Two extreme wind speed prediction models, the EWM(Extreme wind speed model) in IEC61400-1 and the Gumbel method were compared in this study. The two models were used to predict extreme wind speeds of six different sites in Korea and the results were compared with long term wind data. The NCAR reanalysis data were used for inputs to two models. Various periods of input wind data were tried from 1 year to 50 years and the results were compared with the 50 year maximum wind speed of NCAR wind data. It was found that the EWM model underpredicted the extreme wind speed more than 5 % for two sites. Predictions from Gumbel method overpredicted the extreme wind speed or underpredicted it less than 5 % for all cases when the period of the input data is longer than 10 years. The period of the input wind data less than 3 years resulted in large prediction errors for Gumbel method. Predictions from the EWM model were not, however, much affected by the period of the input wind data.

  • PDF

태풍 내습 시 지상 최대풍 추정을 위한 WRF 수치모의 사례 연구 : 태풍 RUSA와 MAEMI를 대상으로 (A Case Study of WRF Simulation for Surface Maximum Wind Speed Estimation When the Typhoon Attack : Typhoons RUSA and MAEMI)

  • 정우식;박종길;김은별;이보람
    • 한국환경과학회지
    • /
    • 제21권4호
    • /
    • pp.517-533
    • /
    • 2012
  • This study calculated wind speed at the height of 10 m using a disaster prediction model(Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model, FPHLM) that was developed and used in the United States. Using its distributions, a usable information of surface wind was produced for the purpose of disaster prevention when the typhoon attack. The advanced research version of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) was used in this study, and two domains focusing on South Korea were determined through two-way nesting. A horizontal time series and vertical profile analysis were carried out to examine whether the model provided a resonable simulation, and the meteorological factors, including potential temperature, generally showed the similar distribution with observational data. We determined through comparison of observations that data taken at 700 hPa and used as input data to calculate wind speed at the height of 10 m for the actual terrain was suitable for the simulation. Using these results, the wind speed at the height of 10 m for the actual terrain was calculated and its distributions were shown. Thus, a stronger wind occurred in coastal areas compared to inland areas showing that coastal areas are more vulnerable to strong winds.