• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2011.02a
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• pp.1-6
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• 2011

As large-scale building projects have recently increased for the residential, commercial and office facilities, construction costs for these projects have become a matter of great concern, due to their significant construction cost implications, as well as unpredictable market conditions and fluctuations in the rate of inflation during the projects' long-term construction periods. In particular, recent volatile fluctuations of construction material prices fueled such problems as cost forecasting. This research develops a time series model using the Box-Jenkins approach and material price time series data in Korea in order to forecast trends in the unit prices of required materials. Building information modeling (BIM) approaches are also used to analyze injection times of construction resources and to conduct quantity take-off so that total material prices can be forecast. To determine an optimal time series model for forecasting price trends, comparative analysis of predictability of tentative autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models is conducted. The proposed BIM-based time series forecasting model can help to deal with sudden changes in economic conditions by estimating material prices that correspond to resource injection times.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.195-216
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• 2013

In this paper, I investigate how international prices affect domestic prices and export prices in Korea by using vector error correction model(VECM) and estimate its impact on international trade. According to the empirical results, international prices, such as world raw material prices and oil prices, make stronger effects on domestic prices, in order of import, export, producer, and consumer prices. And recent years the effect of international raw material prices on domestic prices becomes larger. It implies importers, exporters and producers are more affected by international prices than consumers are. Therefore, the international trade, import and export, is affected by changes in international prices. Firms, especially importing and exporting companies, should do much efforts on risk managing about raw material prices variation, diversification of raw material suppliers, and oversea resources development. The government is needed to support on firms those efforts while doing its economic policies to cope with economic conditions and the price policy.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.137-138
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• 2012

Domestic construction materials market was about 65 trillion won and it occupied 45% level of total construction cost by 2007. In addition, due to the recent rapid rise of crude oil and iron ore price, fluctuation of raw material cost has a great influence to the cost of construction industry. This means that smooth performance is closely related to construction materials. And among them, because of high putting rate of metal materials, it can be seen that the fluctuation of metal material prices is an important variables. So in this study, for the pre-study to analyze the impact of metallic material prices to construction cost, the researcher analyzed a causal relationship between metal material prices and construction cost.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.34-45
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• 2019

Purpose - This study investigates the lead-lag relations between the prices of major commodities imported into Korea and corresponding shipping freight rates. This paper aims to provide implications for cross-market causal relations between related economic segments. Design/Methodology - For economic long-run equilibrium between commodity prices and freights, a Johansen (1988) cointegration test is employed first. Then, Granger (1987) causality tests are performed under the vector error correction model (VECM) framework. Findings - The results indicate that the direction of causality varies by raw materials, which is attributable to different economic mechanisms in the corresponding shipping transportation sectors. In addition, the significance of causality becomes blurred during the post-2008 period. Practical Implication - Corporate managers in commodity trading, steelmaking, power generation, and oil refinery sectors can take advantage of the findings in this study as identifying leading economic indicators can be helpful for decision making in both short- and long-term strategies. Originality/value - This study is the first attempt to analyze the inter-relations between commodity prices and corresponding freight rates focusing on raw material imports of Korea.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.409-417
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• 2020

Background: It is well known that the distribution of therapeutic materials is very complex. However, it is not easy to demonstrate the concrete problems caused by distribution channels empirically. The purpose of this study was to investigate the differences in the price of therapeutic materials according to the type of purchasing agency and the way in which medical institutions purchase therapeutic materials. Methods: This study compared the claimed prices and the maximum allowable prices for the items of therapeutic material used for general spinal surgery. Results: Ilsan Hospital, which purchased directly without a purchasing agent, had the lowest claimed prices, followed by a large professional purchasing agency, a foundation-related purchasing agency, and a general purchasing agency. In addition, the difference between the claimed prices and the maximum allowable prices according to the purchase type was larger in the expensive treatment materials, and in the case of the lower price treatment materials, it tended to converge to the maximum allowable prices. Conclusion: National health insurance spending for therapeutic materials are to be affected by the distribution channels of them. We proposed several ideas to rationalize the expenditure such as classification of therapeutic materials on the basis of price or other criteria.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2007.03a
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• pp.96-105
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• 2007

This paper presents a study on the impact of variation of construction material prices on the feasibility of building projects in Vietnam. The paper makes use of Monte-Carlo simulation for financial risk analysis of net present Value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). To well illustrate the influencing, a case study is presented. The research results show that there is a strong correlation between steel prices, gold prices, and $US exchange rate. Outputs of statistics also reveal that the concurrent variation of prices of cement, steel, sand, brick, formwork and stone has strongly negative impact on NPV and IRR of building projects. The results also indicate that the proportion of steel cost to total construction cost is 17.95% which is the cause of risks for the feasibility of building project in Vietnam. The paper stresses that feasibility study of building project must integrate the impact of construction materials prices in order to mitigate risks in developing countries as Vietnam.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.33-53
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• 2010

When purchase prices of a raw material fluctuate over time, the total purchasing cost is mainly affected by reordering time. Existing researches focus on deciding the right time when the demand for each period is replenished at the lowest cost. However, the decision is based on expected future prices which usually turn out to include some error. This discrepancy between expected prices and actual prices deteriorates the performance of inventory models dealing with fluctuating purchase prices. In this paper, we propose a new inventory model which incorporates not only cost but also risk into making up a replenishment schedule to meet each period's demand. For each replenishment schedule, the risk is defined to be the variance of its total cost. By introducing the risk into the objective function, the variability of the total cost can be mitigated, and eventually more stable replenishment schedule will be obtained. According to experimental results from crude oil inventory management, the proposed model showed better performance over other models in respect of variability and cost.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.202-203
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• 2020

Unlike price calculation by cost accounting, which categorizes costs into material costs, labor costs, and miscellaneous expenses to determine the construction budget price, construction cost calculation based on Construction Standard Unit Prices utilizes unit prices extracted from market prices of items from projects already completed to estimate costs of similar construction projects. Although unit price information is collected through construction site surveys to revise these construction standard unit prices every year, but due to the limitations of the site survey method, it is difficult to quickly implement the rapid changes in the construction methods and market prices. As such, an important issue that arose was the identification of work items whose prices need urgent revision. This study conducted research on factors that need to be considered when developing online survey system for monitoring construction site market prices. This study is expected to enhance convenience for users, and provide an efficient data collection and management system for administrators.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.111-120
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• 2011

High-rise buildings have recently increased over the residential, commercial and office facilities, thus an understanding of construction cost for high-rise building projects has been a fundamental issue due to enormous construction cost as well as unpredictable market conditions and fluctuations in the rate of inflation by long-term construction periods of high-rise projects. Especially, recent violent fluctuations of construction material prices add to problems in construction cost forecasting. This research, therefore, develops a time-series model with the Box-Jenkins methodologies and material prices time-series data in Korea in order to forecast future trends of unit prices of required materials. BIM (Building Information Modeling) approaches are also used to analyze injection time of construction resources and to conduct quantity takeoff so that total material price can be forecasted. Comparative analysis of Predictability of tentative ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models was conducted to determine optimal time-series model for forecasting future price trends. Proposed BIM based time series forecasting model can help to deal with sudden changes in economic conditions by estimating future material prices.

• Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.211-212
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• 2019

The objectives of this research are to test the utility of semiparametric geographically weighted regression (SGWR, a spatial analysis method) in the small-scale urban sample, and to understand the geographic patterns of provision and pricing of sharing economy based accommodations in the tourist city. This paper focused on how network distance to heritage site, to casino, residential unit prices and other five attribute categories determine Airbnb price in Macau SAR, China. Findings show that SGWR models outperformed OLS models. Moreover, comparing with heritage sites, casinos are the stronger factors to drive up Airbnb (including hostels) rooms' provision and their prices; and residential unit prices are not related with the Airbnb price in the attraction clusters in Macau. This research showed a little example for the applications of SGWR in the small city, and for the analysis of online marketplace data as new urban study material. Practically, this study provides some scientific evidence for hosts, guests, urban planners, and policymakers' decision making in Macau.