• 국제학술발표논문집
• /
• The 4th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management Organized by the University of New South Wales
• /
• pp.1-6
• /
• 2011

As large-scale building projects have recently increased for the residential, commercial and office facilities, construction costs for these projects have become a matter of great concern, due to their significant construction cost implications, as well as unpredictable market conditions and fluctuations in the rate of inflation during the projects' long-term construction periods. In particular, recent volatile fluctuations of construction material prices fueled such problems as cost forecasting. This research develops a time series model using the Box-Jenkins approach and material price time series data in Korea in order to forecast trends in the unit prices of required materials. Building information modeling (BIM) approaches are also used to analyze injection times of construction resources and to conduct quantity take-off so that total material prices can be forecast. To determine an optimal time series model for forecasting price trends, comparative analysis of predictability of tentative autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models is conducted. The proposed BIM-based time series forecasting model can help to deal with sudden changes in economic conditions by estimating material prices that correspond to resource injection times.

• 통상정보연구
• /
• 제15권4호
• /
• pp.195-216
• /
• 2013

본 연구는 국제물가 변동이 국내물가와 수출물가에 미치는 영향을 벡터오차수정모형(VECM)을 이용하여 분석하고 국제통상거래 균형 또는 흑자 유지를 위한 정부 및 기업의 대응방안을 논의하였다. 국제원자재가격 및 국제원유가격등이 국내물가에 미치는 영향 정도를 분석한 결과 수입물가, 생산자물가, 소비자물가의 순서로 상대적으로 큰 영향을 미쳤으며, 세계경제위기 이전과 이후를 비교할 때 국제원자재가격의 영향이 증대되고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 국제물가 변동 충격의 상당부분을 수입업자나 생산자가 흡수함에 따라 최종소비자에 대한 물가상승 영향은 줄어들었으나 국제통상거래를 하는 수입업자 및 생산자에게는 큰 영향을 주고 있음을 알 수 있다. 한편 수출물가의 경우에는 환율과 국제원자재가격의 변동의 영향력이 상대적으로 큰 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 실증분석 결과를 바탕으로 국내물가 안정 및 기업경쟁력 확보를 위한 정부의 정책 대안과 기업의 대응 방안을 모색하였다. 정부의 경우에는 국내물가의 안정을 기본적인 기조로 유지하되 총수요정책의 적정 운용 및 물가안정화 장기 대책등을 펴나가야 한다. 단기적으로는 총수요 관리 정책 실시와 함께 물가상승기대심리에 따른 인플레이션 현상을 차단하는 정책을 실시하여야 한다. 장기적으로는 국제선물시장을 통한 헤지 활동, 국제원자재의 직접 조달원 개척, 정책보험 활용, 교역상대국간 관세 인하 또는 철폐 등과 같이 기업들의 통상교역활동에 대한 지원정책을 펴나가야 한다. 한편 수출입기업을 비롯한 기업들의 경우에는 국제원자재를 저렴하고 안정적으로 공급받을 수 있도록 자원개발 및 선물시장을 통한 가격변동 헤징 등을 수행할 수 있는 체계를 갖추어 나가야 할 것이다.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국건축시공학회 2012년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
• /
• pp.137-138
• /
• 2012

Domestic construction materials market was about 65 trillion won and it occupied 45% level of total construction cost by 2007. In addition, due to the recent rapid rise of crude oil and iron ore price, fluctuation of raw material cost has a great influence to the cost of construction industry. This means that smooth performance is closely related to construction materials. And among them, because of high putting rate of metal materials, it can be seen that the fluctuation of metal material prices is an important variables. So in this study, for the pre-study to analyze the impact of metallic material prices to construction cost, the researcher analyzed a causal relationship between metal material prices and construction cost.

• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• 제23권2호
• /
• pp.34-45
• /
• 2019

Purpose - This study investigates the lead-lag relations between the prices of major commodities imported into Korea and corresponding shipping freight rates. This paper aims to provide implications for cross-market causal relations between related economic segments. Design/Methodology - For economic long-run equilibrium between commodity prices and freights, a Johansen (1988) cointegration test is employed first. Then, Granger (1987) causality tests are performed under the vector error correction model (VECM) framework. Findings - The results indicate that the direction of causality varies by raw materials, which is attributable to different economic mechanisms in the corresponding shipping transportation sectors. In addition, the significance of causality becomes blurred during the post-2008 period. Practical Implication - Corporate managers in commodity trading, steelmaking, power generation, and oil refinery sectors can take advantage of the findings in this study as identifying leading economic indicators can be helpful for decision making in both short- and long-term strategies. Originality/value - This study is the first attempt to analyze the inter-relations between commodity prices and corresponding freight rates focusing on raw material imports of Korea.

• 보건행정학회지
• /
• 제30권3호
• /
• pp.409-417
• /
• 2020

Background: It is well known that the distribution of therapeutic materials is very complex. However, it is not easy to demonstrate the concrete problems caused by distribution channels empirically. The purpose of this study was to investigate the differences in the price of therapeutic materials according to the type of purchasing agency and the way in which medical institutions purchase therapeutic materials. Methods: This study compared the claimed prices and the maximum allowable prices for the items of therapeutic material used for general spinal surgery. Results: Ilsan Hospital, which purchased directly without a purchasing agent, had the lowest claimed prices, followed by a large professional purchasing agency, a foundation-related purchasing agency, and a general purchasing agency. In addition, the difference between the claimed prices and the maximum allowable prices according to the purchase type was larger in the expensive treatment materials, and in the case of the lower price treatment materials, it tended to converge to the maximum allowable prices. Conclusion: National health insurance spending for therapeutic materials are to be affected by the distribution channels of them. We proposed several ideas to rationalize the expenditure such as classification of therapeutic materials on the basis of price or other criteria.

• 국제학술발표논문집
• /
• The 2th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
• /
• pp.96-105
• /
• 2007

This paper presents a study on the impact of variation of construction material prices on the feasibility of building projects in Vietnam. The paper makes use of Monte-Carlo simulation for financial risk analysis of net present Value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). To well illustrate the influencing, a case study is presented. The research results show that there is a strong correlation between steel prices, gold prices, and $US exchange rate. Outputs of statistics also reveal that the concurrent variation of prices of cement, steel, sand, brick, formwork and stone has strongly negative impact on NPV and IRR of building projects. The results also indicate that the proportion of steel cost to total construction cost is 17.95% which is the cause of risks for the feasibility of building project in Vietnam. The paper stresses that feasibility study of building project must integrate the impact of construction materials prices in order to mitigate risks in developing countries as Vietnam.

• 한국경영과학회지
• /
• 제35권4호
• /
• pp.33-53
• /
• 2010

When purchase prices of a raw material fluctuate over time, the total purchasing cost is mainly affected by reordering time. Existing researches focus on deciding the right time when the demand for each period is replenished at the lowest cost. However, the decision is based on expected future prices which usually turn out to include some error. This discrepancy between expected prices and actual prices deteriorates the performance of inventory models dealing with fluctuating purchase prices. In this paper, we propose a new inventory model which incorporates not only cost but also risk into making up a replenishment schedule to meet each period's demand. For each replenishment schedule, the risk is defined to be the variance of its total cost. By introducing the risk into the objective function, the variability of the total cost can be mitigated, and eventually more stable replenishment schedule will be obtained. According to experimental results from crude oil inventory management, the proposed model showed better performance over other models in respect of variability and cost.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국건축시공학회 2020년도 봄 학술논문 발표대회
• /
• pp.202-203
• /
• 2020

Unlike price calculation by cost accounting, which categorizes costs into material costs, labor costs, and miscellaneous expenses to determine the construction budget price, construction cost calculation based on Construction Standard Unit Prices utilizes unit prices extracted from market prices of items from projects already completed to estimate costs of similar construction projects. Although unit price information is collected through construction site surveys to revise these construction standard unit prices every year, but due to the limitations of the site survey method, it is difficult to quickly implement the rapid changes in the construction methods and market prices. As such, an important issue that arose was the identification of work items whose prices need urgent revision. This study conducted research on factors that need to be considered when developing online survey system for monitoring construction site market prices. This study is expected to enhance convenience for users, and provide an efficient data collection and management system for administrators.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
• /
• 제12권2호
• /
• pp.111-120
• /
• 2011

최근 도심지 고밀화에 따른 공간의 효율적 이용이 요구됨에 따라 대규모의 고층 사무공간이 증가하고 있으며, 이와 함께 주거, 상업, 문화 등 다양한 기능을 밀접하게 연관시킨 고층 복합시설도 점차 늘어가고 있다. 이러한 대형 건설, 프로젝트는 긴 공사기간이 소요되어 공사비 예측이 쉽지 않으며, 막대한 비용이 투입되기 때문에 비용 예측의 중요성이 더욱 증대되고 있다. 이러한 상황에서 최근 극심한 경제변화에 따른 건설자재가격의 변동은 자재비를 포함한 공사비 예측을 어렵게 만드는 주요 원인이다. 따라서 본 연구는 건설자재단가 시계열자료를 활용, 미래의 자재단가 예측을 위한 시계열모델을 구축하고 복잡한 모델 프로세스를 간소화하는 자재별 최적 예측모델 도출시스템을 구축한다. 또한 Building Information Modeling(BIM)의 접근을 통해 자재의 투입시기 및 투입물량을 분석, 시계열모델을 통해 예측한 자재단가 예측 값과 조합함으로써 총 자재비를 포함하는 BIM기반 공사원가 예측 시계열모델을 제시한다. 본 연구는 시계열모델의 하나인 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)모델에 대한 예측력 비교를 통해 자재단가 예측을 위한 적합모델을 도출하였다. BIM기반의 원가예측 시계열모델은 자재의 투입시기별 자재단가 변동치를 예측함으로써 급변하는 경제 환경 변화에 대처할 수 있는 도구가 될 것이다.

• 한국콘텐츠학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국콘텐츠학회 2019년도 춘계종합학술대회
• /
• pp.211-212
• /
• 2019

The objectives of this research are to test the utility of semiparametric geographically weighted regression (SGWR, a spatial analysis method) in the small-scale urban sample, and to understand the geographic patterns of provision and pricing of sharing economy based accommodations in the tourist city. This paper focused on how network distance to heritage site, to casino, residential unit prices and other five attribute categories determine Airbnb price in Macau SAR, China. Findings show that SGWR models outperformed OLS models. Moreover, comparing with heritage sites, casinos are the stronger factors to drive up Airbnb (including hostels) rooms' provision and their prices; and residential unit prices are not related with the Airbnb price in the attraction clusters in Macau. This research showed a little example for the applications of SGWR in the small city, and for the analysis of online marketplace data as new urban study material. Practically, this study provides some scientific evidence for hosts, guests, urban planners, and policymakers' decision making in Macau.