• Title/Summary/Keyword: Market Opening

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Predictability of Overnight Returns on the Cross-sectional Stock Returns (야간수익률의 횡단면 주식수익률에 대한 예측력)

  • Cheon, Yong-Ho
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.243-254
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - This paper explores whether overnight returns measured from the last closing price to today's opening price explain the cross-section of stock returns. Design/methodology/approach - This study is conducted using the Korean stock market data from 1998 to 2018, obtained from DataGuide database. The analysis begins with portfolio-level tests, followed by firm-level cross-sectional regressions. Findings - First, when decile portfolios sorted on the daily average of overnight returns in the previous months, the highest decile portfolio exhibits a significant negative risk-adjusted return. This suggests that stocks with higher average overnight returns are temporarily overvalued due to buying pressure from investors. Second, at least 6 months of persistence exists in average overnight returns, which is in line with the results reported by Barber, Odean and Zhu (2009) that investor sentiment persists over several weeks. Finally, Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression of expected returns after controlling for a variety of firm characteristic variables such as firm size, book-to-market ratio, market beta, momentum, liquidity, short-term reversal, the slope coefficient for overnight returns remains negative and statistically significant. Research implications or Originality - Overall, the evidence consistently suggests that overnight return is considered as a new priced factor in the cross-section of expected returns. The findings of this paper not only adds to finance literature, but also could be useful to practitioners in making stock investment decision.

Predicting Movie Success based on Machine Learning Using Twitter (트위터를 이용한 기계학습 기반의 영화흥행 예측)

  • Yim, Junyeob;Hwang, Byung-Yeon
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.3 no.7
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    • pp.263-270
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    • 2014
  • This paper suggests a method for predicting a box-office success of the film. Lately, as the growth of the film industry, a variety of studies for the prediction of market demand is being performed. The product life cycle of film is relatively short cultural goods. Therefore, in order to produce stable profits, marketing costs before opening as well as the number of screen after opening need a plan. To fulfill this plan, the demand for the product and the calculation of economic profit scale should be preceded. The cases of existing researches, as a variable for predicting, primarily use the factors of competition of the market or the properties of the film. However, the proportion of the potential audiences who purchase the goods is relatively insufficient. Therefore, in this paper, in order to consider people's perception of a movie, Twitter was utilized as one of the survey samples. The existing variables and the information extracted from Twitter are defined as off-line and on-line element, and applied those two elements in machine learning by combining. Through the experiment, the proposed predictive techniques are validated, and the results of the experiment predicted the chance of successful film with about 95% of accuracy.

The Determinants of FDI Inflow after Reform-Opening of China (중국에서 개혁·개방이후 FDI유입에 영향을 미치는 요인들)

  • Choi, Won-Ick;Han, Jong-Soo
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.177-198
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    • 2016
  • China has retained economic growth rate of average 9% for more than ten years recently after China introduced capitalistic market economy system in 1979 by Deng Xiaoping. China has attracted foreign direct investment for a long time because it has retained very high economic growth rate, low labor cost, and various policies for foreign investors. This paper tries to analyse the determinants of foreign direct investment inflow after reform-opening of China with empirical analysis methods utilizing each province·city's specific characteristics by using the panel data from 1985 to 2013. For the empirical analysis we use random effect model, fixed effect model, pooled OLS, and random coefficient model. The results by pooled OLS and random coefficient model are presented for the comparison with the main results in the process of research. The research shows the results by fixed effect model are better than those by random effect model after doing Hausman's test. The results shows that GRDP, capital stock, and telecommunication exert a positive relationship with foreign direct investment, while express way variable exerts a negative one. China's education level surprisingly does not attract foreign direct investment even though it is not at a critical level. Therefore, the Chinese government should try to increase national income level as it symbolizes market size; encourage domestic investment; and construct high quality telecommunication infrastructure.

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Stock-Index Invest Model Using News Big Data Opinion Mining (뉴스와 주가 : 빅데이터 감성분석을 통한 지능형 투자의사결정모형)

  • Kim, Yoo-Sin;Kim, Nam-Gyu;Jeong, Seung-Ryul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.143-156
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    • 2012
  • People easily believe that news and stock index are closely related. They think that securing news before anyone else can help them forecast the stock prices and enjoy great profit, or perhaps capture the investment opportunity. However, it is no easy feat to determine to what extent the two are related, come up with the investment decision based on news, or find out such investment information is valid. If the significance of news and its impact on the stock market are analyzed, it will be possible to extract the information that can assist the investment decisions. The reality however is that the world is inundated with a massive wave of news in real time. And news is not patterned text. This study suggests the stock-index invest model based on "News Big Data" opinion mining that systematically collects, categorizes and analyzes the news and creates investment information. To verify the validity of the model, the relationship between the result of news opinion mining and stock-index was empirically analyzed by using statistics. Steps in the mining that converts news into information for investment decision making, are as follows. First, it is indexing information of news after getting a supply of news from news provider that collects news on real-time basis. Not only contents of news but also various information such as media, time, and news type and so on are collected and classified, and then are reworked as variable from which investment decision making can be inferred. Next step is to derive word that can judge polarity by separating text of news contents into morpheme, and to tag positive/negative polarity of each word by comparing this with sentimental dictionary. Third, positive/negative polarity of news is judged by using indexed classification information and scoring rule, and then final investment decision making information is derived according to daily scoring criteria. For this study, KOSPI index and its fluctuation range has been collected for 63 days that stock market was open during 3 months from July 2011 to September in Korea Exchange, and news data was collected by parsing 766 articles of economic news media M company on web page among article carried on stock information>news>main news of portal site Naver.com. In change of the price index of stocks during 3 months, it rose on 33 days and fell on 30 days, and news contents included 197 news articles before opening of stock market, 385 news articles during the session, 184 news articles after closing of market. Results of mining of collected news contents and of comparison with stock price showed that positive/negative opinion of news contents had significant relation with stock price, and change of the price index of stocks could be better explained in case of applying news opinion by deriving in positive/negative ratio instead of judging between simplified positive and negative opinion. And in order to check whether news had an effect on fluctuation of stock price, or at least went ahead of fluctuation of stock price, in the results that change of stock price was compared only with news happening before opening of stock market, it was verified to be statistically significant as well. In addition, because news contained various type and information such as social, economic, and overseas news, and corporate earnings, the present condition of type of industry, market outlook, the present condition of market and so on, it was expected that influence on stock market or significance of the relation would be different according to the type of news, and therefore each type of news was compared with fluctuation of stock price, and the results showed that market condition, outlook, and overseas news was the most useful to explain fluctuation of news. On the contrary, news about individual company was not statistically significant, but opinion mining value showed tendency opposite to stock price, and the reason can be thought to be the appearance of promotional and planned news for preventing stock price from falling. Finally, multiple regression analysis and logistic regression analysis was carried out in order to derive function of investment decision making on the basis of relation between positive/negative opinion of news and stock price, and the results showed that regression equation using variable of market conditions, outlook, and overseas news before opening of stock market was statistically significant, and classification accuracy of logistic regression accuracy results was shown to be 70.0% in rise of stock price, 78.8% in fall of stock price, and 74.6% on average. This study first analyzed relation between news and stock price through analyzing and quantifying sensitivity of atypical news contents by using opinion mining among big data analysis techniques, and furthermore, proposed and verified smart investment decision making model that could systematically carry out opinion mining and derive and support investment information. This shows that news can be used as variable to predict the price index of stocks for investment, and it is expected the model can be used as real investment support system if it is implemented as system and verified in the future.

Attitudes on Medical Market Opening and Factors for Selecting a Foreign Hospital of Korean University Hospital Outpatients (환자들의 의료시장개방에 대한 인식도와 외국병원 선택요인 - S대학교병원 외래환자들을 대상으로 -)

  • Yoon, Yur-Yong;Yu, Seung-Hum;Kim, You-Young;Oh, Hyohn-Joo
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.32-48
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    • 2003
  • Korea is to open its medical markets to foreign hospitals starting in the year 2006 regardless of our will(DDA, Doha Development Agenda). To accurately understand the characteristics of Korean medical users, their detailed and various needs, their attitudes toward the opening of Korean medical markets, and factors affecting these users in choosing foreign medical service providers would be first step needs to be taken by the Korean medical facilities that need to survive and develope through the fiercely competitive era coming with the opening of Korean medical markets to foreign medical service providers and would be very important in hospital management. The subjects of this study were 500 patients randomly selected from the outpatients who visited one of university hospitals in Seoul on the 14th-16th days of April 2003, and conducted a self-completion questionnaire. The answers of 463 respondents among the selected patients(93% of a responding rate)were analyzed through the Excel and statistics programs. The attitudes on the opening of the medical markets were shown in agreement 56.5%(247 persons), disagreement 6.9%(30 persons), and no idea 36.6%(160 persons). In consideration of only the answers as agreement and disagreement exclusive of the answer as no idea, 89.2% of the respondents agreed to the opening of the medical markets while 10.8% objected to the opening. The approval rate was higher with the higher education and income levels. Moreover, The approval rate for the opening of the medical markets was relatively high regardless of the satisfaction in the medical service, and the most important reason of the agreement was the guarantee of the patients(national)option. The main reason of the disagreement was high medical fee(50.5%), and the other reasons showing low rates were outflow of the domestic fund to the foreign countries(13.6%), damage of medical influences on the public(11.4%), lack of competition of the domestic medical industry(9.1%)and so on. As for the factors of selecting the foreign hospitals in the opening of the medical markets, the patients considered the authority(competency)of doctors firstly, and the other principal factors were worldwide fame and reliance, specific explanation of doctors, modernized medical instruments, convenient consultation procedure, etc. The patients agreed to the opening of the medical markets at a high rate regardless of the satisfaction in the medical service, and the most principal reason of the agreement was the guarantee of the patients(national)option for the medical care. Connected with the factors to select the hospitals, the approval reasons for the opening of the medical markets were the authority(competency)of the doctors as the first one, and then fame and tradition, reliance, overall diagnosis and modernized medical instruments, doctors specific explanation, and so on. However, these factors are actually associated with the Quality of the medical care, and consequently the approval reasons for the opening of the medical markets are connected with the security of the medical care. Accordingly, the guarantee of the patients(national)option answered as the main reason of the agreement can be also understood as the awareness of the right to have a variety of options for the security of the medical quality.

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A Study on the Changes in Regulatory Policy against Large-scale Retail Stores in Japan (일본의 대규모 소매점포 규제 정책 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Seung-Hee;Kim, Young-Ki
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.55-65
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - This study aims to investigate the process of political changes in Japan, which has introduced regulatory policies for large-scale retail stores since the 1930s, as well as the examples, and suggests improvement schemes for our policies in Korea, which imposes restrictions on business hours and forced holidays in accordance with the current Distribution Industry Development Act. Research design, data, and methodology - After examining the political change processes related to large-scale retail stores in japan, this study analyzes individually regulated cases based on the ordinances enacted by each local government. Through case analysis in Japan, this study makes political suggestions that may be helpful for our country substantially. Results - Since there is an obvious possibility that our economic restrictions on business hours and mandatory holidays do not coincide with WTO GATS, it is necessary for large-scale distributors to introduce new social and environmental regulations similar to Japan, rather than imposing controls to restrict free competition and also introduce a policy to induce cooperation with small businesses for the advancement of the distribution industry. Thus, it is desirable to take measures on noise, waste, traffic, and parking for the preservation of the living environment in the surroundings when building new large-scale retail stores. It is also important to establish measures to improve the welfare of neighborhood residents and consumers, create a pleasant urban environment, and make it mandatory to make presentations at public hearings among residents. Furthermore, it should be mandatory to establish regional contribution plans when a retail store is established, and take measures to solve various civil complaints or problems that may occur after entering the market. Moreover, it is desirable for large-scale retail stores that entered the market to induce cooperation in performing various activities in the area with a strong sense that they are all members of the local economy. Conclusions - If introducing social regulations like in Japan, there is probably an advantage that the conflicts seen when large-scale retail stores enter the market are absorbed by adjusting the persons concerned within the established institution in order to establish a field to solve such conflicts systematically. In contrast, there are still concerns regarding chaotic operation without any active attempts to have a conversation with large-scale retail stores and local small merchants due to a sharp conflict among the persons concerned, and if it is a briefing session without any decision of the restrictions on their opening itself, there may be doubts with regard to their effectiveness. Moreover, if the de facto opening is restricted by the introduction of such a briefing session procedure, the choice of whether to protect the existing rights of large-scale retail stores might become problematic. However, such problems could be minimized in a way by forming a separate consultative group for all persons concerned including residents, local governments, professionals, civic organizations, small merchants, and massive retail store-related persons.

The Present Situation and Development Methods of the Communication Industry in China (중국 통신산업의 현황과 전망)

  • Song, Yun-Tao;Lee, Jong-Ho
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - Before the economic reforms, the Chinese communication industry was poorly developed. After China's entering to WTO, the Chinese market were gradually opened, domestic companies will be faced with more and more pressures of competition from the world rival countries. As time goes on, the overseas telecommunications companies will occupy the Chinese market with the opening of China Telecommunications market to outside. So this paper focuses on problems and development methods based on the research about the present situation and development methods of communication industry(communication manufacturing industry and communication manufacturing industry) in China. Research design, data, and methodology - This study analyzed the policies of China's entering to WTO. This paper observed previous researches and made an empirical research on Chinese communication industry based on the governmental policies, strategies, books and previous papers with several kinds of clear data announced formally by China authorities. Results - Most recently, reorganization of the communication industry has brought good opportunities for the development of the communication manufacturing enterprises. This paper analyze policy changes of Chinese communication industry, the status of communication manufacturing industry and communication service industry. Finally, this study for further research analyzes the existing problems and puts forward some practicable measures to solve them. Conclusions - Looking ahead, with China's rapid economic development and steady deepening of reform and opening-up, the Chinese communication industry is faced with an even broader prospect of development. Chinese communication industry will be become the pillar one in national economy after 10 years development. Foreign communication companies accelerated investment and progresses to Chinese information and communication markets. Positive ones are more foreign investment, export increase, domestic innovation, communication industry made steep growth. But negative ones are obstacles of domestic companies' development and jobless rate increase etc. Second communication manufacturing industry made good development, but computer and TV related industry made decline in growth. Third, market sizes of internet and mobile services are growing but the size of wired communication services is downsizing gradually. To overcome them, the studies of components or parts of communication manufacturing industry are needed individually. Second China Unicom, China Telecom, China Mobile etc. are Chinese representatives. The sales volumes are very similar at the beginning, but now they are different and make big differences. So the analysis about, their differences and its impact, are needed.

Market effects analysis of when lowering the threshold value of construction services under WTO GPA (WTO 정부조달협정 건설서비스 양허하한선 인하시의 건설시장 변화와 대응방안)

  • Moon, Hyuk;Kim, Myeong-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.72-82
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    • 2009
  • Lowering threshold value of construction services is extremely sensitive issue to the small and medium enterprises in construction industry. Because it means opening the construction markets where the small and medium construction companies compete intensely. Nevertheless, it is absent that the analysis on the effect of opening the market lowering threshold value of construction services under Government Procurement Agreements or Free Trade Agreement. This research is to analyze the effects of lowering threshold value of construction service which have been agenda repeatedly in the international agreements such as WTO and FTA. The current threshold value of construction services of Korea under WTO GPA are 5million SDR where the government delivers and 15million SDR where the local government or the public institution deliver. However major parties to an entente such as USA and EU have been demanding to lower threshold value of 15 million SDR where the local government or the public institution deliver to 5million SDR. The analysis figure the effect of this lowering threshold value to be a market reduction by 2trillion Won as '07 fiscal year basis. This market shrinkage will effect to the small and medium construction companies in local considerably.

A Study on the Outlook of Dental Hygiene Students on the Possible Countermeasure of Domestic Hospitals for the Opening of the Medical Market (의료시장 개방에 따른 국내병원 대응에 대한 치위생과 학생들의 견해에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Hyun-Seo;Kim, Dong-Yeol
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.443-451
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the views of dental hygiene students about the possible countermeasure of domestic hospitals for the opening of the medical market. The subjects in this study were 269 dental hygiene sophomores, juniors and seniors at two different colleges in the region of Busan. The findings of the study were as follows: The opening of the medical market and views of possible countermove, whether they agreed to that or not made a statistically significant difference to their opinions on the necessity of customer-oriented marketing strategy(p=0.023), analysis of foreign medical markets/attempt to make inroads into the markets(p<0.000) and the improvement of the quality of medical services/the diversification of the services(p=0.025). As to an intention of going to a foreign hospital, they had a statistically significantly different intention about whether to go to a foreign hospital regardless of medical bills(p<0.000), whether to consult a doctor in a foreign hospital after going to a domestic hospital first (p<0.000), whether to consider the distance between their houses and a foreign hospital(p=0.05) and whether to take considerations on the assistance of an interpreter(p=0.023). In regard to preference for foreign hospitals, American hospitals ranked first(41.9), followed by Australian hospitals(19.9) and Canadian ones(14.2).

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A Study on International Market Share Expansion Based on Derived Problems from Performance Record Analysis on Overseas Construction (해외건설 실적분석을 통한 문제점 도출 및 시장 확대방안에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Jun-Youl;Jeon, Rak-Keun;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.7 no.4 s.32
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    • pp.109-117
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    • 2006
  • The domestic construction market is recovered after a foreign exchange crises but recently it's daunted again because of the sustainable real estate regulation policy by the government. The other aspect, after the WTO(World Trade Organization) system opened overseas construction is growing continuously with growth of international economy and opening of market through world. Moreover, for ballooning oil prices an orders increase by oil-producing countries, the Middle East, gives good chances to domestic construction enterprises. But, the domestic firms decrease on our domain by chases of developing country and high-technology or advanced country. This research will indicate processes of our construction business to analyze performance record about our overseas construction from the 1970s to present. Based on the results it intends to search for problems of our construction enterprises and provide useful analytic data for expansion of overseas construction market.