• 제목/요약/키워드: Market Modeling

검색결과 623건 처리시간 0.03초

불완전정보 전력거래 해석을 위한 게임이론의 적용 (An Application of Game theory to Power Transactions under Incomplete Information)

  • 강동주;박만근;김발호;박종배
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2000년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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    • pp.19-21
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    • 2000
  • This paper presents a game theory application for analyzing power transactions and market design in a deregulated energy marketplace such as PoolCo. The conventional least-cost approaches for the generation resource schedule can not exactly handle recent real-world situations. A systematic tool using game theory for the market participants is presented such that it determines the net profits through the optimal bidding strategies including the strategies for the bidding prices and bidding generations. We treat this power transaction game as incomplete information one, which means each market participants does not know other's cost function. And the demand elasticity of the energy price is considered for the realistic modeling of the deregulated marketplace.

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국내 아날로그와 디지털 이동전화 서비스 가입자 수 예측을 위한 선택 관점의 대체 확산 모형 (A Choice-Based Substitutive Diffusion Model for Forecasting Analog and Digital Mobile Telecommunication Service Subscribers in Korea)

  • 전덕빈;박윤서;김선경;박명환;박영선
    • 경영과학
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.125-137
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    • 2002
  • The telecommunications market is expanding rapidly and becoming more substitutive. In this environment, demand forecasting is very difficult, yet important for both practitioners and researchers. in this paper, we adopt the modeling approach proposed dy Jun and Park [6]. The basic premise is that demand patterns result from choice behavior, where customers choose a product to maximize their utility. We apply a choice-based substitutive diffusion model to the Korean mobile telecommunication service market where digital service has completely replaced analog service. In comparison with Bass-type multigeneration models. our model provides superior fitting and forecasting performance. The choice-based model is useful in that it enables the description of such complicated environments and provides the flexibility to include marketing mix variables such as price and advertising in the regression analysis.

전력산업 경쟁도입에 따른 요금변화에 대한 부하모델수립 (A Study on Load Modeling with respect to the Change of Price in Competitive Electricity Market)

  • 한만형;김정훈;최준영
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2000년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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    • pp.376-378
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    • 2000
  • The current worldwide electricity market introduced competition, which is breaking up the monopoly structure and also enforcing phased structural reform in South Korea. The change of the electricity charge from cost base to price base due to the introduction of the electricity market competition causes consumer to choose a variety of charge schemes and a portion of loads to be affected by this change. Therefore, in order to find a mathematical model of the sensitively-responding-to-price loads and reflect this to the DSM demand management, the price-sensitive load model is needed. Thus, this paper first proposes the composite price-sensitive load model that is expressed as a function of price, presents the methodology to estimate price-sensitive load model at each bus by bus load compositions.

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The Evolution of Korean Information Infrastructure and Its Future Direction: A System Dynamics Model

  • Hyun, Tchang-Hee;Kim, Dong-Hwan
    • ETRI Journal
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 1998
  • The recent technological and industrial revolution dictates a new approach in constructing Korean Information Infrastructure. Lacking past data on the newly emerging markets, econometrics methodologies cannot accurately forecast future path of advanced networks, let alone dynamic impacts of public policies. In this paper, we have built a system dynamics model of the Korean Information Infrastructure and simulated diverse policy measures including market integration and government initiative in investment for experimenting their effectiveness. The most counterintuitive result of our research is that the market integration policy will facilitate CATV networks at an early stage until the year 2010, but will result in a diminished market size in the long run. With the system dynamics approach, we can enhance our understanding of the complex policy systems and get valuable insights through learning by modeling and simulation.

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게임이론을 적용한 전력거래 해석 (Power Transaction Analysis using Game Theory)

  • 박만근;김발호;박종배;정만호
    • 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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    • 제49권6호
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    • pp.266-271
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    • 2000
  • The electric power industries are moving from the conventional monopolistic or vertically integrated environments to deregulated and competitive environments, where each participant is concerned with profit maximization rather than system-wide costs minimization. Consequently, the conventional least-cost approaches for the generation resource schedule can not exactly handle real-world situations. This paper presents a game theory application for analyzing power transactions and market design in a deregulated energy marketplace, where the market participants determine the net profits through the optimal bidding strategies. The demand elasticity of the energy price is considered for the realistic modeling of the deregulated marketplace.

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제조기업의 시장지향성이 품질경영활동과 경영성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Effects of the Manufacturer's Market Orientation on Quality Management activity and Business Performance)

  • 원유영;박종우;송광석;신호철
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제11권6호
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    • pp.81-89
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - The market orientation of a manufacturer is a very critical competitive advantage factor in the development of new markets and the sustainability and maintenance of existing ones, achieved through the design of customer-oriented products. This is recognized as a virtuous circle, in which firms grow by means of promoting quality management. However, though market-oriented activities are important in management and operations, they seem to be promoted mainly by large-scale enterprises rather than by small- and medium-scale firms, the latter having invested relatively few company resources. Furthermore, few studies and analyses have examined how market orientation relates to the expansion of quality programs within organizations or with business performance; the market orientation and customer-orientation concepts are mixed together when both are used in research. Given the current market situation in which the servitization of manufacturing firms is rapidly expanding, this study's analysis of the effect on market orientation of manufacturers is a significant contribution. From this perspective, this study has several objectives. First, is to analyze and suggest the relationship between market orientation and quality management activity for manufacturers, focusing on three sub-activities: products, process, and quality management activities. Second, it is intended to identify correlation between manufacturers' market oriented activity and their management performance and then to analyze how market orientation affects business performance. The results of a number of prior studies on the correlation between market orientation and management performance have indicated that market orientation does affect management performance. Third, this study also investigates whether any differences in the relationship among market orientation, quality management activity and business performance occur according to company size. The results are used to present operational suggestions for large- and small- and medium-size firms. Research design, data, methodology - This study seeks to analyze and identify the causal features of the organic relationship among market orientation, quality management, and management performance for Korean manufacturing companies using three years (2005-2007) of market orientation, quality management, and business performance data. Subsequently, structural equation modeling was used to analyze the causal features of related factors and it aims to identify the features of market orientation, quality management, and business performance. Results - The analysis examined how market orientation affected the quality management and management performance of 159 smalland medium-size companies. In particular, enterprise quality management was analyzed in relation to management performance with a focus on activities such as leadership, measurement and improvement, quality control, cost management, and process management. Conclusions - The result of the analysis show that market orientation significantly affected all of the quality management activities and that market orientation in turn significantly affected organizational performance. The result of analysis indicate that quality management activities have a significant effect on quality control and cost management.

시장환경을 고려한 건설기업의 중장기 기업전략 평가모델 연구 (Modeling Approach for Long-Term Corporate Strategies of Construction Firms Considering Key Market Driving Factors)

  • 박희대;한승헌;김두연
    • 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건설관리학회 2007년도 정기학술발표대회 논문집
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    • pp.571-575
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    • 2007
  • 국내건설시장의 성장 한계에 따른 경쟁 심화와 해외건설시장의 개방 및 호황에 따른 글로벌 경쟁 속에서 국내건설기업들은 급격하게 변하는 국내외 시장변화 상황에 대응하기 위해서 국내건설시장 수주 전략과 해외건설시장의 진입 확대 및 대규모 프로젝트 창출 등 변신을 위해 기업차원의 방안을 모색하고 있다. 이는 결국 건설기업들이 국내외의 중장기적인 건설시장의 변화를 예측하고 경쟁력을 확보하기 위한 대응방안을 수립하는 것이 기업생존의 중요한 관건임을 의미한다. 본 연구에서는 국내외 시장 및 제도 등 외부 환경의 변화에 따른 건설기업의 대응방안을 모색하고, 시간의 흐름에 따른 전략의 효과를 예측하기 위해 건설기업의 내부적 역량과 전략, 정부 및 국내외 시장 등 외부 환경의 핵심 영향인자를 도출하고, 영향인자 들의 인과지도 작성을 통해 각 인자들의 영향관계와 도출될 수 있는 전략 및 그 효과를 분석할 수 있는 평가모델의 구축방법론을 정립하고자 한다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 시스템다이내믹스 시뮬레이션을 통한 정량적 분석모델 구축에 있어 기본 프레임워크 자료로 활용될 것이며, 급변하는 건설환경 속에서 건설기업이 수립하는 전략의 향후 효과를 미리 예측해 봄으로써 기업차원에서 효과적인 신규 전략을 수립할 수 있는 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

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산업용 천연가스 수요관리 프로그램 최적화를 위한 동태적 시뮬레이션에 관한 연구 (A Study on the 'Extended' DSM Programs in Korean LNG Market)

  • 장한수;최기련
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.211-231
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    • 2002
  • This paper summarizes the results of a study that assess how a demand side management (DSM) system addresses key economic and environmental challenges facing in the Korean natural gas sector considering; ${\bullet}$ high discrepancies of seasonal consumption volume and of load factor in unmatured domestic LNG market, ${\bullet}$ unfavorable and volatile international LNG market, imposing with the contestable "take-or-pay" contract terms, ${\bullet}$ low profile of LNG and existence of market barriers against an optimal fuel mix status in the industrial energy sector. A particular focus of this study is to establish an 'extended' DSM system in the unmatured gas market, especially in industry sector, that could play a key role to assure an optimum fuel mix scheme. Under the concept of 'extended' DSM, a system dynamics modeling approach has been introduced to explore the option to maximize economic benefits in terms of the national energy system optimization, entailing different ways of commitments accounting for different DSM measures and time delay scenarios. The study concludes that policy options exist that can reduce inefficiencies in gas industry and end-use system at no net costs to national economy. The most scenarios find that, by the year 2015, it is possible to develop a substantial potential of increased industrial gas end-uses under more reliable and stable load patterns. Assessment of sensitivity analysis suggests that time delay factor, in formulating DSM scenarios, plays a key role to overcome various market barriers in domestic LNG market and provides a strong justification for the policy portfolios 'just in time' (time accurateness), which eventually contribute to establish an optimum fuel mix strategy. The study indicates also the needs of advanced studies based on SD approach to articulate uncertainty in unmatured energy market analysis, including gas.

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한국 자동차 시장 내 주요 기업간 다집단 경쟁 다이나믹스 모델링 및 분석 (Multi-group Competitive Dynamics Modeling and Analysis between Major Automakers in Korean Automobile Market)

  • 송영한;김영;정기선;김윤배
    • 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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    • 제29권4호
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 2020
  • 2011년 한-EU 자유무역협정 발효 이후, 한국 자동차 시장은 급성장하였으며 시장 내 기업 간 경쟁 양상은 심화되고 있다. 유럽산 자동차 기업은 가격 경쟁력을 보유하게 되었고, 이로 인해 한국 자동차 기업과의 경쟁이 격화되었다. 이와 같은 상황 속에서 한국 자동차 시장에 관한 다양한 연구가 수행되어왔으나, 시장 영향요인 분석과 소비자 분석 등의 연구가 주를 이루었고 시장 내 경쟁 다이나믹스 분석에 관한 연구는 전무한 상황이다. 본 연구에서는 한국 자동차 시장 내 주요 기업인 현대자동차, 기아자동차, 메르세데스-벤츠, BMW의 경쟁 다이나믹스를 분석하였다. Lotka-Volterra(LV) 모형을 사용하여 주요 기업들의 경쟁 관계를 모델링하였고, Moving Window 기법을 적용하여 시간의 흐름에 따른 기업 간 경쟁 다이나믹스를 분석하고 이를 정량적으로 도출하였다. 효과적인 해석을 위해, 도출된 경쟁 다이나믹스는 다양한 영향요인을 바탕으로 세분화되어 분석하였다.

안드로이드 기반의 모바일 앱 개발을 위한 모델링 기법 (A Modeling Technique for Development of Mobile App. based on Android)

  • 조은숙;김철진;이숙희
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제14권8호
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    • pp.3999-4005
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    • 2013
  • 스마트 폰 2천만 시대가 도래 하면서 향후 모바일 시장의 규모는 엄청나게 거대해질 것으로 전망되고 있다. 이러한 흐름에 동반하여 소프트웨어 개발의 형태도 웹 기반 소프트웨어에서 모바일 기반의 앱 형태나 클라우드 컴퓨팅 기반의 서비스 형태로 변화되고 있다. 현재 전 세계적으로 스마트폰을 위한 플랫폼으로는 구글의 안드로이드와 애플의 IOS가 양대 산맥을 이루고 있다. 이러한 플랫폼 하에서 실행되는 모바일 앱을 개발할 경우 기존의 소프트웨어 모델링 기법을 그대로 적용할 수가 없다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기존의 소프트웨어 모델링 기법을 안드로이드 기반의 소프트웨어 개발에 맞도록 특화된 모델링 기법을 제안한다. 안드로이드 기반의 모바일 스마트 환경에 필요한 분석 및 설계 기법을 모델링 기법으로 제안한다.