• Title/Summary/Keyword: Market Growth Curve

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An Expert System for the Estimation of the Growth Curve Parameters of New Markets (신규시장 성장모형의 모수 추정을 위한 전문가 시스템)

  • Lee, Dongwon;Jung, Yeojin;Jung, Jaekwon;Park, Dohyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.17-35
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    • 2015
  • Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.

Forecasting the Growth of Smartphone Market in Mongolia Using Bass Diffusion Model (Bass Diffusion 모델을 활용한 스마트폰 시장의 성장 규모 예측: 몽골 사례)

  • Anar Bataa;KwangSup Shin
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.193-212
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    • 2022
  • The Bass Diffusion Model is one of the most successful models in marketing research, and management science in general. Since its publication in 1969, it has guided marketing research on diffusion. This paper illustrates the usage of the Bass diffusion model, using mobile cellular subscription diffusion as a context. We fit the bass diffusion model to three large developed markets, South Korea, Japan, and China, and the emerging markets of Vietnam, Thailand, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. We estimate the parameters of the bass diffusion model using the nonlinear least square method. The diffusion of mobile cellular subscriptions does follow an S-curve in every case. After acquiring m, p, and q parameters we use k-Means Cluster Analysis for grouping countries into three groups. By clustering countries, we suggest that diffusion rates and patterns are similar, where countries with emerging markets can follow in the footsteps of countries with developed markets. The purpose was to predict the timing and the magnitude of the market maturity and to determine whether the data follow the typical diffusion curve of innovations from the Bass model.

An Study of Demand Forecasting Methodology Based on Hype Cycle: The Case Study on Hybrid Cars (기대주기 분석을 활용한 수요예측 연구: 하이브리드 자동차의 사례를 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-Pyo
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.14 no.spc
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    • pp.1232-1255
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    • 2011
  • This paper proposes a model for demand forecasting that will require less effort in the process of utilizing the new product diffusion model while also allowing for more objective and timely application. Drawing upon the theoretical foundation provided by the hype cycle model and the consumer adoption model, this proposed model makes it possible to estimate the maximum market potential based solely on bibliometrics and the scale of the early market, thereby presenting a method for supplying the major parameters required for the Bass model. Upon analyzing the forecasting ability of this model by applying it to the case of the hybrid car market, the model was confirmed to be capable of successfully forecasting results similar in scale to the market potential deduced through various other objective sources of information, thus underscoring the potentials of utilizing this model. Moreover, even the hype cycle or the life cycle can be estimated through direct linkage with bibliometrics and the Bass model. In cases where the hype cycles of other models have been observed, the forecasting ability of this model was demonstrated through simple case studies. Since this proposed model yields a maximum market potential that can also be applied directly to other growth curve models, the model presented in the following paper provides new directions in the endeavor to forecast technology diffusion and identify promising technologies through bibliometrics.

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Development and Policy of Proper Management Estimation of Domestic Service Industry in Comparison with OECD Countries for Advancement of Korean Service Industry

  • Suh, Geun-Ha;Yoon, Sung-Wook
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - Considering that the governments' official statistics on the optimum scale of the domestic service industry will be crucial in future, this study's results will be used as an important benchmark to develop and verify the parameters in the government's official statistics. Research design, data, and methodology - To identify the appropriate scale of Korea's service industry and its adequacy, I have determined them through estimation using a regression method involving panel data analysis on the panel data of 30 OECD countries. Results - The regression coefficient provided indications of being non-linear. This means that a U-shaped curve relationship exists-that is, the level of the economic growth leverage decreases along with the service industry's growth up to the level of 70.9% in terms of the Korean service industry's adequacy; it increases along with the service industry's growth at a level higher than 70.9%. Conclusions - While the current proportion of the size of the service industry among all industries in Korea stands at 50.7%, its proper proportion estimated by a regression analysis was 70.9%.

A Method for Forecasting Demand of High Touch Product Using Matrix Analysis of Target Populations and Product Functions (Target Population과 Product Function의 Matrix 분석을 이용한 High Touch 신제품의 판매예측 방법)

  • Park, Won-Hui;Kim, Dae-Gap;Kim, Ki-Sun;Lee, Sang-Won;Lee, Myun-Woo
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.79-85
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    • 2007
  • Demand forecasting methods for a consumer product such as TV or refrigerator are widely known. However, sales forecast for a brand new product cannot be estimated using conventional forecasting methods. This study proposes a five-step procedure in forecasting a newly developed product. Step one defines functions in a High Touch product in order to estimate relative attraction of the product to consumer group. In step two, for a comparison purpose, a compatible product that is successfully penetrated into market is selected. Step three breaks a target population into many segments based on demography. Step four calculates relative attraction between the High Touch product and the compatible product. Finally, market penetration rate of the High Touch product is estimated using a bell-shaped diffusion curve of the compatible product. The process offers a method to estimate potential demand and growth pattern of the new High Touch product.

Do Phillips Curve Respond Asymmetrically to Unemployment? Evidence from Korea and the U.S.

  • Lee, Donghae;Lee, Sangki
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - This study empirically analyses the changes in unemployment rates to understand push factors of generating wage pressure and how it affects the aggregate demand in Korea and the United States. We use a structural macroeconomic model which is centered on the labor market and simultaneously explains the natural rate of unemployment and deviations. Research design, data and methodology - We attempt to empirically analyse the unemployment rates through two countries to analyse the economic effects of real wages and aggregate demand between 2000 and 2016. We introduce having estimated the whole model that the growth of unemployment into the part caused by each of these factors. Results - The results of this study show that in the long run, there is not only a natural level of employment but also a natural level of real demand are positively related. in the short run, demand can vary from bring about changes in employment by means of price or wage surprises. Conclusions - The pressure of demand in the labor market shows up strongly in both countries. The estimated labor-demand equation are consistent with this framework and generally have well defined real wage and demand effects.

Electrical Characteristics of Mono Crystalline Silicon Solar Cell for Concentrating PV System using Fresnel Lenses (프레넬 렌즈를 이용한 집광 시 단결정 실리콘 태양전지의 전기적 특성)

  • Kang, Kyung-Chan;Kang, Gi-Hwan;Yu, Gwon-Jong;Huh, Chang-Su
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2007.07a
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    • pp.218-219
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    • 2007
  • Silicon feed stock shortage have acted as major restraints for growth of photovoltaic industry. Concentrating photovoltaic (CPV) system will reduce the use of silicon PV materials. This paper presents the application possibility of mono-crystalline silicon solar cell, which has increased in market share, for PV concentrator. We measured the power of solar cell using sun simulator and I-V curve tracer and compared the results. The comparison of results showed that the concentrated solar cell generated the power more approximately 7 times than without concentration in spite of non-heat sink. If CPV technology included heat sink combines already developed PV tracking system, it will have a merit economically.

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Analysis for Factors of Firms' Exporting in Industrial Organization Theory and Strategic Perspective (산업조직론과 전략관점에서 기업의 수출 영향요인 분석)

  • Park, Sung-Gon;Kang, Seok-Min
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.406-414
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    • 2020
  • Exporting plays the important role in reducing dependence on the domestic market by creating the new foreign markets. As a business strategy, exporting contributes to the national growth and provides firms with opportunities which enable economies of scale, economies of scope, and experience curve effects. Because of both the growth limitation of the domestic market and development of information technology, many firms enter in foreign markets by increasing exporting. Using firms located in Taegu, this study examined the factors of firms' exporting with industrial organization theory and strategic perspective. In the empirical results on industrial organization theory, systematic cooperation and governmental supporting positively affect firms' exporting and only systematic cooperation positively affects exporting performance. In the empirical results on strategic perspective, product differentiation foreign exporting network, and foreign entry nation positively affect firms' exporting, and foreign exporting network, and foreign entry nation positively affect exporting performance.

Low Cycle Fatigue Performance of 304L Stainless Steel Weldments (304L 스테인리스 강 용접부의 저주기 피로 성능 평가)

  • Hwang, JaeHyoen;Oh, DongJin;Lee, DoYoung;Chun, MinSung;Kim, Myung-Hyun
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.47-51
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    • 2016
  • Recently, the market of liquefied natural gas is growing in accordance with shale gas development and environmentally friendly policies. Also, LNG is in the spotlight as an alternative fuel to previously used fossil fuel and the fuel for the ship to meet emission standards which takes effected by IMO (International Maritime Organization). According to growth of LNG, LNG carriers needs are also expected to increase significantly. This study investigates low cycle fatigue (LCF) performance of 304L stainless steel weldments to investigate fatigue performance in plastic strain region. 304L stainless steel is known to have improved fatigue performance at cryogenic conditions. LCF behavior are investigated by a strain-controlled condition up to 1% strain range and conducted with three different thickness (3mm, 5mm, 10mm). Also, test were performed with three different strain ratio R such as R = -1, -0, 0.5, Finally, the fatigue design curve for 304L stainless steel weldments at room tem- perature are proposed. Considering all test conditions, it is shown that LCF performance have similar tendency regardless of thickness and strain ratio. LCF design curve of 304L stainless steel weldments are lower than 304L stainless steel base metal.

A Theoretical Study on the Optimal Environmental Policy Instruments (환경정책수단의 최적성에 대한 이론적 검토)

  • Kwon, O-Sung
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.397-425
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    • 2003
  • This paper develops a simple theoretical model that is consistent with the empirical evidence of an inverted U-shpated relationship between pollution and per capita income, which is so-called environmental Kuznets curve in this literature. Also, by incorporating the issue of environmental externality into an endogenous growth model, I investigate the circumstances under which growth can be sustained with the optimal control of pollution, and hence the sustainable development can be achieved. In order to study the problem of implementing the social optimum in a market economy, I examine the optimality of three different kinds of environmental policy instruments; pollution tax, pollution-permit trading system (pollution voucher), and direct regulation. This paper shows that the optimum can be implemented with a pollution tax or with a voucher system. Also, it is shown that the socially optimal rate of pollution tax should increase proportionally to the growth rate of consumption.

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