• Title/Summary/Keyword: Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis

Search Result 100, Processing Time 0.036 seconds

Trend analysis of rainfall characteristics and its impact on stormwater runoff quality from urban and agricultural catchment

  • Salim, Imran;Paule-Mercado, Ma. Cristina;Sajjad, Raja Umer;Memon, Sheeraz Ahmed;Lee, Bum-Yeon;Sukhbaatar, Chinzorig;Lee, Chang-Hee
    • Membrane and Water Treatment
    • /
    • v.10 no.1
    • /
    • pp.45-55
    • /
    • 2019
  • Climate change has significantly affected the rainfall characteristics which can influence the pollutant build-up and wash-off patterns from the catchment. Therefore, this study explored the influence of varying rainfall characteristics on urban and agricultural runoff pollutant export using statistical approaches. For this purpose, Mann-Kendall and Pettitt's test were applied to detect the trend and breakpoint in rainfall characteristics time series. In addition, double mass curve and correlation analysis were used to drive the relationship between rainfall-runoff and pollutant exports from both catchments. The results indicate a significant decreased in total rainfall and average rainfall intensity, while a significant increased trend for antecedents dry days and total storm duration over the study periods. The breakpoint was determined to be 2013 which shows remarkable trend shifts for total rainfall, average rainfall intensity and antecedents dry days except total duration. Double mass curve exhibited a straight line with significant rainfall-runoff relationship indicates a climate change effect on both sites. Overall, higher pollutant exports were observed at both sites during the baseline period as compared to change periods. In agricultural site, most of the pollutants exhibited significant (p< 0.05) association with total rainfall, average rainfall intensity and total storm duration. In contrast, pollutants from urban site significantly correlated with antecedent dry days and average rainfall intensity. Thus, total rainfall, average rainfall intensity and total duration were the significant factors for the agricultural catchment while, antecedents dry days and average rainfall intensity were key factors in build-up and wash-off from the urban catchment.

Development of Drought Vulnerability Index Using Trend Analysis (경향성 분석을 통한 가뭄취약성 지수의 개발)

  • Yang, Jeong-Seok;Park, Jin-Hyuck;Kim, Nam-Ki
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.32 no.3B
    • /
    • pp.185-192
    • /
    • 2012
  • Drought vulnerability index was developed by selecting drought-related indicators with trend test. Study areas were determined by considering the weir locations from the four major rivers restoration project in Nakdong and Geum river watersheds. Ten indicators were selected and they were categorized into three groups, water resources, precipitation pattern, and social aspects. Annual average surface water level, annual minimum surface water level, annual average groundwater level, and annual minimum groundwater level data sets were collected for water resources aspects. The number of non-rainy days, rainfall concentration ratio, and rainfall deviation were considered for precipitation pattern category. The amount of water available per capita, financial soundness for water resources, and water usage equity were related to social aspects. Mann-Kendall, Hotelling-Pabst, and Sen trend tests were performed for the ten indicator data sets and the results were scored for the drought vulnerability index. The results shows Gumi, Sangjoo, and Hapcheon weirs are relatively vulnerable to drought. The indices were relatively low for the regions in Geum river watershed compared to those in Nakdong river watershed.

Characteristics of Long-term Water Quality Trend of Dongrae Hot Spring (동래온천의 장기적인 수질 변동 특성)

  • Jeon, Hang-Tak;Hamm, Se-Yeong;Lee, Cholwoo;Lee, Jong-Tae;Lee, Jeong Rak
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
    • /
    • v.30 no.3
    • /
    • pp.379-397
    • /
    • 2020
  • In this study, Long-term change of water quality in Donrae Hot Spring was characterized using water quality data from 1922 to 2019. According to Mann-Kendall analysis and Sen's slope using long-term water quality data of Dongnae Hot Spring from 1922 to 2019, temperature, Ca, SiO2, and HCO3 show an increasing trend whereas EC, Na, K, Mg, Cl, and SO4 show a decreasing trend or negligible trend. In addition, the water type of Dongnae Hot Spring stably belongs to Na-Cl type over time. The spatial distributions of water temperature and chemical constituents in 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2019 show variable patterns with showing some difference depending on sampling locations in different years. These results indicate that despite the long-term pumping of the hot spring water, the water quality is quite stable during the entire study period.

Characteristics and Trends of Spatiotemporal Distribution of Frost Occurrence in South Korea for 21 Years (21년간 한국의 서리발생 시·공간 분포 특성과 경향)

  • Jo, Eunsu;Kim, Hae-Min;Shin, Ju-Young;Kim, Kyu Rang;Lee, Yong Hee;Jee, Joonbum
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.24 no.2
    • /
    • pp.83-94
    • /
    • 2022
  • In order to actively prepare to frost damage that occurs in the process of growing crops, the spatial and temporal distribution of frost occurrence in South Korea was derived using frost observation data from 20 regions over the past 21 years (2000~2020). The main products are the number of frost days, first frost day, and last frost day by region. And the climatic trends of these results were identified by performing the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator. In South Korea, a lot of frost occurs in the inland area to the west of the Taebaek and Sobaek Mountains. Relatively closer to the coastal area, the number of frost days is small, the first frost day is slow, and the last frost day is early. The east coast region has fewer frost days, the first frost day is later, and the last frost day is earlier than the west coast region. The southern sea, the southeastern sea region, and the island region rarely experience frost. As a result of the annual time series trend analysis, although South Korea is a country where climate warming is progressing, there was no trend in reducing the number of frost days and slowing the first frost day, and it was found that the last frost day is delayed by 0.5 days per year.

The Application of Various Non-parametric Trend Tests to Observed and Future Rainfall Data in the Nakdong River Basin (낙동강 유역의 과거 및 미래 강우자료에 대한 다양한 비모수적 경향성 검정 기법의 적용)

  • Kim, Sang Ug;Lee, Yeong Seob;Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.47 no.3
    • /
    • pp.223-235
    • /
    • 2014
  • In recent, the various methods to predict the hydrological impacts due to climate change have been developed and applied. Especially the trend analysis using observed and future hydrological data has been performed than ever. Parametric or non-parametric tests can be applied for a trend analysis. However, the non-parametric tests have been commonly used in the case of trend analysis using hydrological data. Therefore, the two types of non-parametric tests, Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Spearman Rho (SR) test, were used to detect the trend in the observed and future rainfall data that were collected from the Nakdong River basin. Also, the Pre-Whitening (PW) and the Trend Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW) as the pre-process of the trend analysis were performed. Also, the result of trend analysis suggest that those pre-processes have a statistically significant effect. Additionally, the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SMK) was used to reveal the beginning point of a trend in the observed and future rainfall data in the Nakdong River basin. The rainfall patterns in most rainfall gauges using the observed rainfall show the increasing trend and the abrupt changes in the specific months (from April to May and September to October). Also, the beginning point of the trend is brought forward by several months when climate change is accelerated. Finally, the results of this study can provide the useful background for the research related to climate change and water resources planning in the Nakdong River basin.

Tendency Analysis of Water Quality in the Yeongsan River Watershed using Mann-Kendall Test (Mann-Kendall 검정기법을 이용한 영산강 수질의 경향분석)

  • Kang, Ji Eun;Park, Sung Chun;Park, Su Ho;Lee, Woo Bum
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2021.06a
    • /
    • pp.442-442
    • /
    • 2021
  • 하천과 호수 등 공공수역에서 측정되는 수질자료는 수자원 및 수생태계의 실태를 파악하기 위한 가장 중요한 요소이며, 측정망 운영으로 장기간 측정된 방대한 수질자료를 이용하여 신뢰성 있는 장기 경향 추세를 분석하는 것 또한 매우 중요하다. 장기간 생산된 수질자료에 대한 통계적 경향분석을 실시함으로써 정량적으로 수질자료를 분석할 수 있는데 우선 일정한 장소에서 동일한 측정기법을 통해 비교적 장기간 동안 일정간격으로 측정된 수질자료가 필요하다. 우리나라의 수질자료는 1990년도 이후부터 잘 축적되어 왔으므로 비로소 시간에 따른 수질변화 경향을 파악하는 것이 용이해졌다. 이러한 수질경향 분석을 통하여 수체 내부에서 일어나는 여러 가지 수질 변화 과정을 이해하고 적절한 수질관리 대책을 마련할 수도 있다. 본 연구에서는 수질자료의 경향을 분석하기 위하여 비모수적 통계기법의 수질 경향을 분석하는데 많이 활용되는 맨-켄달 검정기법(Mann-Kendall Test)과 LOWESS(LOcally WEighted Scatter polt Smoother) 경향분석법을 적용하였다. 맨-켄달 검정기법은 선형 경향을 기본 가정으로하기 때문에 대상 기간 동안 경향성이 변할 경우에는 이를 적절히 반영할 수 없는 단점이 있으나 LOWESS 경향분석법은 이를 보완하기 위하여 특정회귀모델을 가정하지 않고 이동 직선에 대한 수질자료 점들을 통해 회귀모델을 적합 시키는 방법으로 기간 내 변화하는 경향성을 파악 할 수 있는 대상지점은 영산강본류 중심으로 지류지천을 포함하여 18개 지점에 대하여 분석하였으며, p-value값은 0.05를 기준으로 미만일 경우 경향성이 있고, 이상일 경우 경향성이 없는 것으로 분류하였으며, Trend는 경향성이 있다고 판단될 경우 S값이 양수이면 증가하는 경향으로, S값이 음수이면 감소하는 경향으로 판단하였다. 경향분석을 통해 영산강 18개 지점을 분석한 결과 영산강 상류와 중류, 지류에 대한 전체적인 경향을 판단할 수 있었다.

  • PDF

수질 장기관측자료를 활용한 우리나라의 지하수 수질변동 특성

  • 김규범;이강근
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment Conference
    • /
    • 2003.04a
    • /
    • pp.94-96
    • /
    • 2003
  • Since 1995, MOCT(Ministry of Construction and Transportation) and KOWACO(Korea Water Resources Corporation) have established the National Groundwater Monitoring Network in South Korea and also MOE(Ministry of Environment) has operated Groundwater Quality Monitoring network. Until 2001, 202 monitoring stations by MOCT and 780 monitoring wells by MOE have been constructed, measured groundwater level and analyzed water samples. Groundwater quality analysis has been conducted two times a year during last 6 years for all monitoring wells. The quality data has about 15 components including pH, COD, Count of Coliform group, and etc.. Trend analysis has been peformed for 6 components(Coliform, pH, COD, NO$_3$-N, Cl and EC) of water quality which are analyzed more than 7 times for total monitoring wells. Two test methods have been used ; Sen's test and Mann-Kendall test. These trend tests have been done at the 0.05 significance level. By the result of Sen's test, Count of Coliform group has either upward or downward trends at 4.3 percent of the monitoring points. pH does at 5.6 percent, COD does at 8.6 percent, Nitrate-Nitrogen does at 13.2 percent, Chloride does at 13.4 percent, and. EC does at 11.6 percent of the monitoring points. The exact causes of the groundwater quality trends are difficult to specify. Notable downward trends in nitrate at many monitoring points may be the result of reduction on some contamination sources. Potential causes include diminished agricultural areas, improvements in sewage treatment and a decrease in atmospheric deposition. Increase in chloride at many monitoring points may be the result of increased non-point source pollution such as road salting and runoff from sprawling paved developments and suburbs.

  • PDF

Analysis of Water Quality Fluctuations in Upstream Namhan River Watershed Using Long-term Statistical Analysis (통계적 경향 분석을 통한 남한강 상류 수계 수질 변동 해석)

  • Byeon, Sang-Don;Noh, Yeon-Jung;Lim, Kyeong-Jae;Kim, Jong-Gun;Kim, Dong-Jin;Hong, Eun-Mi
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
    • /
    • v.62 no.5
    • /
    • pp.15-26
    • /
    • 2020
  • There are fifteen non-point pollution management areas in Korea and three of them (Doam lake, Daegi district and Golji-cheon) are located in the upstream of the Namhan river watershed. Many efforts to reduce non-point sources (NPS) pollution have been conducted, however, water quality pollution in the watershed is still serious. To solve these problems, it is a priority to grasp water quality using statistical techniques. In this study, a trend analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of NPS management in the watershed. The long-term trends from 1996 to 2018 of water quality properties were analyzed using data collected from the water environment information system. Seventeen monitoring stations were selected along the main stream in Namhan river basin. Monthly water quality properties (BOD, COD, TN, TP, TN/TP ratio, Conductivity, SS and Chlorophyll-a) were collected and analyzed by Mann-Kendall test and LOWESS. The results showed that the Conductivity tended to increase in all regions and was the highest level in Jijangcheon. Organic pollution such as BOD and COD tended to increase in the Jungseon area. SS did not show a large tendency, but it showed high concentration in the Doam watershed. In all regions, 40% of water quality properties showed a tendency to 'UP', 15% of water quality properties tended to 'DOWN', and 46% indicated no tendency. In order to determine the cause of this, additional research and measures for improvement are necessary. This study will be used for the establishment of water quality policy in the future.

Long term groundwater quality change using electrical conductivity and nitrate in the Geum River Basin, South Korea (금강유역의 전기전도도와 질산염을 이용한 장기적인 지하수 수질변화)

  • Agossou, Amos;Lee, Jae-Beom;Joo, Sin-Young;Han, Yeon-Kyeong;Yang, Jeong-Seoke
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.57 no.2
    • /
    • pp.111-125
    • /
    • 2024
  • The study has examined alterations in groundwater quality by investigating the influence of rainfall on electrical conductivity (EC) and nitrate concentration in the groundwater of the Geum River Basin in South Korea. Mann Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator were employed to analyze the trends and estimate the trend's magnitude. The administrative map of the study area was utilized to assess the trends of these parameters within each administrative region. Seventeen years (from 2005 to 2021) of data on EC, groundwater levels (GWL), precipitation, and six years (from 2015 to 2020) of nitrate concentration data were utilized for this analysis. The results indicate that, in most administrative regions, there has been an increase in nitrate concentration, and EC, whereas precipitation has seen a slight decrease in a downstream and an increasing trend in upstream. The correlation coefficients calculated between these parameters reveal that there is no direct impact of precipitation on nitrate and EC, but a negative correlation was observed between GWL and EC. The most significant increasing trend in nitrate concentration was observed in two districts (Iksan and Gunsan ), which correspond to regions with significant agricultural activity; about 50% of these districts area are used for agricultural activities.

Analysis of Water Qulity changes & Characterization at the Watershed in Han River Basin for Target indicator in TMDLs (수질오염총량관리 대상물질 확대를 위한 한강수계 하천수질 경향 및 수질특성 분석)

  • Choi, Ok Youn;Kim, Hong Tae;Seo, Hee Seung;Han, Ihn Sup
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
    • /
    • v.33 no.1
    • /
    • pp.15-33
    • /
    • 2017
  • Based on the existing pollutant emissin standards which are armed at the pollutant concentration of each pollution source, government formulated and implemented new management system of total water pollutant emission. By virtue of this new management system, pollution loading amount of individual watershed could be controlled, which achieved the requirement of water quality management such as TP and BOD. In initiate stage of it's implement, BOD was selected as object of water quality management, While it's necessary to consider the continuity of water quality data and established pollutant management laws and policy. During the ongoing management, TP management was added into the system while simply BOD management was not enough. However, the frequency of algae bloom in Han-river showed a trend of same, even though TP was treated as additional control target. Therefore, this paper will analyze different water quality parameters and characteristic of water quality, so that this study can be provide as reference for watershed management of water quality, by which the applicable management period and target pollutant can be selected in the future.