• Title/Summary/Keyword: Mann-Kendall Test

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Trend Analysis of Earthquake Researches in the World (전세계의 지진 연구의 추세 분석)

  • Yun, Sul-Min;Hamm, Se-Yeong;Jeon, Hang-Tak;Cheong, Jae-Yeol
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.76-87
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    • 2021
  • In this study, temporal trend of researches in earthquake with groundwater level, water quality, radon, remote sensing, electrical resistivity, gravity, and geomagnetism was searched from 2001 to 2020, using the journals indexed in Web of Science, and the number of articles published in international journals was counted in relation to the occurrences of earthquakes (≥Mw 5.0, ≥Mw 6.0, ≥Mw 7.0, ≥Mw 8.0, and ≥Mw 9.0). The number of articles shows an increasing trend over the studied period. This is explained by that studies on earthquake precursor and seismic monitoring becomes active in various fields with integrated data analysis through the development of remote sensing technology, progress of measurement equipment, and big data. According to Mann-Kendall and Sen's tests, gravity-related articles exhibit an increasing trend of 1.30 articles/yr, radon-related articles (0.60 articles/yr), groundwater-related articles (0.70 articles/yr), electrical resistivity-related articles (0.25 articles/yr), and remote-sensing-related articles (0.67 articles/yr). By cross-correlation analysis of the number of articles in each field with removing trend effect and the number of earthquakes of ≥Mw 5.0, ≥Mw 6.0, ≥Mw 7.0, ≥Mw 8.0, and ≥Mw 9.0, radon and remote sensing fields exhibit a high cross-correlation with a delay time of one year. In addition, large-scale earthquakes such as the 2004 and 2005 Sumatra earthquake, the 2008 Sichuan earthquake, the 2010 Haiti earthquake, and the 2010 Chile earthquake are estimated to be related with the increase in the number of articles in the corresponding periods.

A Nonparametric Long-Term Trend Analysis Using Water Quality Monitoring Data in Nam-River (남강 수질측정망 자료를 이용한 비모수적 장기 수질 추세 분석)

  • Jung, Kang-Young;Kim, Myojeong;Song, Kwang Duck;Seo, Kwon Ok;Hong, Seong Jo;Cho, Sohyun;Lee, Yeong Jae;Kim, Kyunghyun
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.27 no.11
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    • pp.1029-1048
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    • 2018
  • In this study, seasonal Mann - Kendall test method was applied to 12 stations of the water quality measurement network of Nam-River based on data of BOD, COD, TN and TP for 11 years from January 2005 to December 2015 The changes of water quality at each station were examined through linear trends and the tendency of water quality change during the study period was analyzed by applying the locally weighted scatter plot smoother (LOWESS) method. In addition, spatial trends of the whole Nam-River were examined by items. The flow-adjusted seasonal Kendall test was performed to remove the flow at the water quality measurement station. As a result, BOD, COD concentration showed "no trand" and TN and TP concentration showed "down trand" in regional Kendall test throughout the study period. BOD and TP concentration in "no trand", COD, and TN concentration showed an "up trand" tendency in Nam-River dam. LOWESS analysis showed no significant water quality change in most of the analysis items and stations, but water quality fluctuation characteristics were shown at some stations such as NR1 (Kyungho-River 1), NR2 (Kyungho-River 2), NR3 (Nam-River), NR6 (Nam-River 2A). In addition, the flow-adjusted seasonal Kendall results showed that the BOD concentration was "up trand" due to the flow at the NR3 (Nam-River) station. The COD concentration was "up trand" due to the flow at NR1 (Kyungho-River 1) and NR2 (Kyungho-River 2) located upstream of the Nam-River. The effect of influent flow on water quality varies according to each site and analysis item. Therefore, for the effective water quality management in the Nam-River, it is necessary to take measures to improve the water quality at the point where the water quality is continuously "up trand" during the study period.

수질 장기관측자료를 활용한 우리나라의 지하수 수질변동 특성

  • 김규범;이강근
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment Conference
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    • 2003.04a
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    • pp.94-96
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    • 2003
  • Since 1995, MOCT(Ministry of Construction and Transportation) and KOWACO(Korea Water Resources Corporation) have established the National Groundwater Monitoring Network in South Korea and also MOE(Ministry of Environment) has operated Groundwater Quality Monitoring network. Until 2001, 202 monitoring stations by MOCT and 780 monitoring wells by MOE have been constructed, measured groundwater level and analyzed water samples. Groundwater quality analysis has been conducted two times a year during last 6 years for all monitoring wells. The quality data has about 15 components including pH, COD, Count of Coliform group, and etc.. Trend analysis has been peformed for 6 components(Coliform, pH, COD, NO$_3$-N, Cl and EC) of water quality which are analyzed more than 7 times for total monitoring wells. Two test methods have been used ; Sen's test and Mann-Kendall test. These trend tests have been done at the 0.05 significance level. By the result of Sen's test, Count of Coliform group has either upward or downward trends at 4.3 percent of the monitoring points. pH does at 5.6 percent, COD does at 8.6 percent, Nitrate-Nitrogen does at 13.2 percent, Chloride does at 13.4 percent, and. EC does at 11.6 percent of the monitoring points. The exact causes of the groundwater quality trends are difficult to specify. Notable downward trends in nitrate at many monitoring points may be the result of reduction on some contamination sources. Potential causes include diminished agricultural areas, improvements in sewage treatment and a decrease in atmospheric deposition. Increase in chloride at many monitoring points may be the result of increased non-point source pollution such as road salting and runoff from sprawling paved developments and suburbs.

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Dissolved Oxygen Trend in Sapgyo Stream Watershed (삽교천유역의 용존산소 추세)

  • Rim, Chang-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.667-681
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    • 2013
  • In this study, monthly and seasonal dissolved oxygen trends of 19 water quality measurement stations in Sapgyo stream watershed were analyzed using monthly dissolved oxygen (DO) data measured for 16 years (1995~2010). Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator were carried out for trend analysis. Furthermore, Sapgyo stream watershed was divided into four different sections (Sapgyo stream, Muhan stream, Gykgyo stream, and Sapgyo lake) and chi-square test of homogeneity for DO trend was carried out for four different sections. The study results indicated that most of water quality measurement stations showed increasing or non-significant trend of DO on a monthly and seasonal basis. The chi-square test of homogeneity for each water quality measurement station showed the statistical homogeneity in seasonal DO trend; however, the test results showed the statistical non-homogeneity in monthly DO trend for the stations located in the reservoir. Overall, the dissolved oxygen trend in each water quality measurement station showed different patterns depending on the location of each station and season.

Analysis on the Change in the Pan Evaporation Rate in the Coastal Zone (우리나라 연안의 팬증발량 변화 양상 분석)

  • Lee, Khil-Ha;Oh, Nam-Sun;Jeong, Shin-Taek
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.244-252
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    • 2007
  • A long-term change in the evaporation rate have an influence on the hydrologic processes at the interface between the land surface-air and crop yield. Several previous studies have reported declines in pan evaporation rate, while actual evaporation rate is expected to increase due to anthropogenic global change in the future. The decreasing trend of pan evaporation rate might be involved with global warming and accordingly the trend of annual pan evaporation rate also needs to be checked here in Korea. In this study, 14 points of pan evaporation observation are intensively studied to investigate the trend of pan evaporation for the time period of 1970-2000. Annual pan evaporation is decreasing at the rate of 1.6mm/yr, which corresponds to approximately 50mm for 30 years. Annual pan evaporation rate is larger by $\sim10%$ at the coastal area and decreasing rate is faster as -2.46 mm/yr per year, while that is -0.82 mm/yr per year at the in-land area. The results of the Mann-Kendall trend test shows 4 points are decreasing and 10 points are unchanged with 95% confidence interval. But national annual average values show the decreasing trend of pan evaporation rate as a whole, which corresponds to general trend all over the world. This study will contribute to a variety of studies on water resources, hydrology, agricultural engineering, meteorology, and coastal engineering in association with future global climate change.

Characteristics and Trends of Spatiotemporal Distribution of Frost Occurrence in South Korea for 21 Years (21년간 한국의 서리발생 시·공간 분포 특성과 경향)

  • Jo, Eunsu;Kim, Hae-Min;Shin, Ju-Young;Kim, Kyu Rang;Lee, Yong Hee;Jee, Joonbum
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.83-94
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    • 2022
  • In order to actively prepare to frost damage that occurs in the process of growing crops, the spatial and temporal distribution of frost occurrence in South Korea was derived using frost observation data from 20 regions over the past 21 years (2000~2020). The main products are the number of frost days, first frost day, and last frost day by region. And the climatic trends of these results were identified by performing the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator. In South Korea, a lot of frost occurs in the inland area to the west of the Taebaek and Sobaek Mountains. Relatively closer to the coastal area, the number of frost days is small, the first frost day is slow, and the last frost day is early. The east coast region has fewer frost days, the first frost day is later, and the last frost day is earlier than the west coast region. The southern sea, the southeastern sea region, and the island region rarely experience frost. As a result of the annual time series trend analysis, although South Korea is a country where climate warming is progressing, there was no trend in reducing the number of frost days and slowing the first frost day, and it was found that the last frost day is delayed by 0.5 days per year.

Development of Drought Vulnerability Index Using Delphi Method Considering Climate Change and Trend Analysis in Nakdong River Basin (낙동강 유역의 기후변화를 고려한 경향성 분석과 Delphi 기법을 이용한 가뭄 취약성 지수 개발)

  • Yang, Jeong-Seok;Kim, Il-Hwan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.2245-2254
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    • 2013
  • A vulnerability index was developed for drought by using trend analysis and Delphi method. Twelve indicators were selected based on three groups, i.e., hydrological, meteorological, and humanistic groups. Data were collected from Nakdong river watershed. Three trend tests, i.e., Mann-Kendall, Hotelling-Pabst, and Sen's trend tests, were performed for standardizing the indicators and Delphi method was used to estimate the weights for individual indicators. The drought vulnerability index was calculated for seven regions in the Nakdong watershed and Hapcheon turned out to be the most vulnerable region among the study regions. The drought vulnerability index developed in this study can be applied to other regions in Korea for establishing national water resources management plan.

Rainfall Trend Detection Using Non Parametric Test in the Yom River Basin, Thailand

  • Mama, Ruetaitip;Bidorn, Butsawan;Namsai, Matharit;Jung, Kwansue
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.424-424
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    • 2017
  • Several studies of the world have analyzed the regional rainfall trends in large data sets. However, it reported that the long-term behavior of rainfall was different on spatial and temporal scales. The objective of this study is to determine the local trends of rainfall indices in the Yom River Basin, Thailand. The rainfall indices consist of the annual total precipitation (PRCTPOP), number of heavy rainfall days ($R_{10}$), number of very heavy rainfall days ($R_{20}$), consecutive of dry days (CDD), consecutive of wet days (CWD), daily maximum rainfall ($R_{x1}$), five-days maximum rainfall ($R_{x5}$), and total of annual rainy day ($R_{annual}$). The rainfall data from twelve hydrological stations during the period 1965-2015 were used to analysis rainfall trend. The Mann-Kendall test, which is non-parametric test was adopted to detect trend at 95 percent confident level. The results of these data were found that there is only one station an increasing significantly trend in PRCTPOP index. CWD, which the index is expresses longest annual wet days, was exhibited significant negative trend in three locations. Meanwhile, the significant positive trend of CDD that represents longest annual dry spell was exhibited four locations. Three out of thirteen stations had significant decreasing trend in $R_{annual}$ index. In contrast, there is a station statistically significant increasing trend. The analysis of $R_{x1}$ was showed a station significant decreasing trend at located in the middle of basin, while the $R_{x5}$ of the most locations an insignificant decreasing trend. The heavy rainfall index indicated significant decreasing trend in two rainfall stations, whereas was not notice the increase or decrease trends in very heavy rainfall index. The results of this study suggest that the trend signal in the Yom River Basin in the half twentieth century showed the decreasing tendency in both of intensity and frequency of rainfall.

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Development of Drought Vulnerability Index Using Trend Analysis (경향성 분석을 통한 가뭄취약성 지수의 개발)

  • Yang, Jeong-Seok;Park, Jin-Hyuck;Kim, Nam-Ki
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.3B
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    • pp.185-192
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    • 2012
  • Drought vulnerability index was developed by selecting drought-related indicators with trend test. Study areas were determined by considering the weir locations from the four major rivers restoration project in Nakdong and Geum river watersheds. Ten indicators were selected and they were categorized into three groups, water resources, precipitation pattern, and social aspects. Annual average surface water level, annual minimum surface water level, annual average groundwater level, and annual minimum groundwater level data sets were collected for water resources aspects. The number of non-rainy days, rainfall concentration ratio, and rainfall deviation were considered for precipitation pattern category. The amount of water available per capita, financial soundness for water resources, and water usage equity were related to social aspects. Mann-Kendall, Hotelling-Pabst, and Sen trend tests were performed for the ten indicator data sets and the results were scored for the drought vulnerability index. The results shows Gumi, Sangjoo, and Hapcheon weirs are relatively vulnerable to drought. The indices were relatively low for the regions in Geum river watershed compared to those in Nakdong river watershed.

Analysis of Water Quality Fluctuations in Upstream Namhan River Watershed Using Long-term Statistical Analysis (통계적 경향 분석을 통한 남한강 상류 수계 수질 변동 해석)

  • Byeon, Sang-Don;Noh, Yeon-Jung;Lim, Kyeong-Jae;Kim, Jong-Gun;Kim, Dong-Jin;Hong, Eun-Mi
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.62 no.5
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    • pp.15-26
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    • 2020
  • There are fifteen non-point pollution management areas in Korea and three of them (Doam lake, Daegi district and Golji-cheon) are located in the upstream of the Namhan river watershed. Many efforts to reduce non-point sources (NPS) pollution have been conducted, however, water quality pollution in the watershed is still serious. To solve these problems, it is a priority to grasp water quality using statistical techniques. In this study, a trend analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of NPS management in the watershed. The long-term trends from 1996 to 2018 of water quality properties were analyzed using data collected from the water environment information system. Seventeen monitoring stations were selected along the main stream in Namhan river basin. Monthly water quality properties (BOD, COD, TN, TP, TN/TP ratio, Conductivity, SS and Chlorophyll-a) were collected and analyzed by Mann-Kendall test and LOWESS. The results showed that the Conductivity tended to increase in all regions and was the highest level in Jijangcheon. Organic pollution such as BOD and COD tended to increase in the Jungseon area. SS did not show a large tendency, but it showed high concentration in the Doam watershed. In all regions, 40% of water quality properties showed a tendency to 'UP', 15% of water quality properties tended to 'DOWN', and 46% indicated no tendency. In order to determine the cause of this, additional research and measures for improvement are necessary. This study will be used for the establishment of water quality policy in the future.