• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.83-102
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• 2021

The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.764-781
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• 2013

In this paper, we propose a highly precise vehicle detection method with low false alarm using billboard sweep stereo matching and multi-stage hypothesis generation. First, we capture stereo images from cameras established in front of the vehicle and obtain the disparity map in which the regions of ground plane or background are removed using billboard sweep stereo matching algorithm. And then, we perform the vehicle detection and tracking on the labeled disparity map. The vehicle detection and tracking consists of three steps. In the learning step, the SVM(support vector machine) classifier is obtained using the features extracted from the gabor filter. The second step is the vehicle detection which performs the sobel edge detection in the image of the left camera and extracts candidates of the vehicle using edge image and billboard sweep stereo disparity map. The final step is the vehicle tracking using template matching in the next frame. Removal process of the tracking regions improves the system performance in the candidate region of the vehicle on the succeeding frames.

• Science of Emotion and Sensibility
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.47-60
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• 2010

Most of the researches about classification usually have used kNN(k-Nearest Neighbor), SVM(Support Vector Machine), which are known as learn-based model, and Bayesian classifier, NNA(Neural Network Algorithm), which are known as statistics-based methods. However, there are some limitations of space and time when classifying so many web pages in recent internet. Moreover, most studies of classification are using uni-gram feature representation which is not good to represent real meaning of words. In case of Korean web page classification, there are some problems because of korean words property that the words have multiple meanings(polysemy). For these reasons, LSA(Latent Semantic Analysis) is proposed to classify well in these environment(large data set and words' polysemy). LSA uses SVD(Singular Value Decomposition) which decomposes the original term-document matrix to three different matrices and reduces their dimension. From this SVD's work, it is possible to create new low-level semantic space for representing vectors, which can make classification efficient and analyze latent meaning of words or document(or web pages). Although LSA is good at classification, it has some drawbacks in classification. As SVD reduces dimensions of matrix and creates new semantic space, it doesn't consider which dimensions discriminate vectors well but it does consider which dimensions represent vectors well. It is a reason why LSA doesn't improve performance of classification as expectation. In this paper, we propose new LSA which selects optimal dimensions to discriminate and represent vectors well as minimizing drawbacks and improving performance. This method that we propose shows better and more stable performance than other LSAs' in low-dimension space. In addition, we derive more improvement in classification as creating and selecting features by reducing stopwords and weighting specific values to them statistically.

• Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.51-75
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• 2022

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a non-invasive brain stimulation that is able to alter neuronal activity in particular brain regions. Many studies have researched how tDCS modulates neuronal activity and reorganizes neural networks. However it is difficult to conclude the effect of brain stimulation because the studies are heterogeneous with respect to the stimulation parameter as well as individual difference. It is not fully in agreement with the effects of brain stimulation. In particular few studies have researched the reason of variability of brain stimulation in response to time so far. The study investigated individual variability of brain stimulation based on circadian rhythm and chronotype. Participants were divided into two groups which are morning type and evening type. The experiment was conducted by Zoom meeting which is video meeting programs. Participants were sent experiment tool which are Muse(EEG device), tdcs device, cell phone and cell phone holder after manuals for experimental equipment were explained. Participants were required to make a phone in frount of a camera so that experimenter can monitor online EEG data. Two participants who was difficult to use experimental devices experimented in a laboratory setting where experimenter set up devices. For all participants the accuracy of 98% was achieved by SVM using leave one out cross validation in classification in the the effects of morning stimulation and the evening stimulation. For morning type, the accuracy of 92% and 96% was achieved in classification in the morning stimulation and the evening stimulation. For evening type, it was 94% accuracy in classification for the effect of brain stimulation in the morning and the evening. Feature importance was different both in classification in the morning stimulation and the evening stimulation for morning type and evening type. Results indicated that the effect of brain stimulation can be explained with brain state and trait. Our study results noted that the tDCS protocol for target state is manipulated by individual differences as well as target state.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.149-169
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• 2020

"The Urban Renewal New Deal project", one of the government's major national projects, is about developing underdeveloped areas by investing 50 trillion won in 100 locations on the first year and 500 over the next four years. This project is drawing keen attention from the media and local governments. However, the project model which fails to reflect the original characteristics of the area as it divides project area into five categories: "Our Neighborhood Restoration, Housing Maintenance Support Type, General Neighborhood Type, Central Urban Type, and Economic Base Type," According to keywords for successful urban regeneration in Korea, "resident participation," "regional specialization," "ministerial cooperation" and "public-private cooperation", when local governments propose urban regeneration projects to the government, they can see that it is most important to accurately understand the characteristics of the city and push ahead with the projects in a way that suits the characteristics of the city with the help of local residents and private companies. In addition, considering the gentrification problem, which is one of the side effects of urban regeneration projects, it is important to select and implement urban regeneration types suitable for the characteristics of the area. In order to supplement the limitations of the 'Urban Regeneration New Deal Project' methodology, this study aims to propose a system that recommends urban regeneration types suitable for urban regeneration sites by utilizing various machine learning algorithms, referring to the urban regeneration types of the '2025 Seoul Metropolitan Government Urban Regeneration Strategy Plan' promoted based on regional characteristics. There are four types of urban regeneration in Seoul: "Low-use Low-Level Development, Abandonment, Deteriorated Housing, and Specialization of Historical and Cultural Resources" (Shon and Park, 2017). In order to identify regional characteristics, approximately 100,000 text data were collected for 22 regions where the project was carried out for a total of four types of urban regeneration. Using the collected data, we drew key keywords for each region according to the type of urban regeneration and conducted topic modeling to explore whether there were differences between types. As a result, it was confirmed that a number of topics related to real estate and economy appeared in old residential areas, and in the case of declining and underdeveloped areas, topics reflecting the characteristics of areas where industrial activities were active in the past appeared. In the case of the historical and cultural resource area, since it is an area that contains traces of the past, many keywords related to the government appeared. Therefore, it was possible to confirm political topics and cultural topics resulting from various events. Finally, in the case of low-use and under-developed areas, many topics on real estate and accessibility are emerging, so accessibility is good. It mainly had the characteristics of a region where development is planned or is likely to be developed. Furthermore, a model was implemented that proposes urban regeneration types tailored to regional characteristics for regions other than Seoul. Machine learning technology was used to implement the model, and training data and test data were randomly extracted at an 8:2 ratio and used. In order to compare the performance between various models, the input variables are set in two ways: Count Vector and TF-IDF Vector, and as Classifier, there are 5 types of SVM (Support Vector Machine), Decision Tree, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and Gradient Boosting. By applying it, performance comparison for a total of 10 models was conducted. The model with the highest performance was the Gradient Boosting method using TF-IDF Vector input data, and the accuracy was 97%. Therefore, the recommendation system proposed in this study is expected to recommend urban regeneration types based on the regional characteristics of new business sites in the process of carrying out urban regeneration projects."

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.141-154
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• 2019

Rapid growth of internet technology and social media is progressing. Data mining technology has evolved to enable unstructured document representations in a variety of applications. Sentiment analysis is an important technology that can distinguish poor or high-quality content through text data of products, and it has proliferated during text mining. Sentiment analysis mainly analyzes people's opinions in text data by assigning predefined data categories as positive and negative. This has been studied in various directions in terms of accuracy from simple rule-based to dictionary-based approaches using predefined labels. In fact, sentiment analysis is one of the most active researches in natural language processing and is widely studied in text mining. When real online reviews aren't available for others, it's not only easy to openly collect information, but it also affects your business. In marketing, real-world information from customers is gathered on websites, not surveys. Depending on whether the website's posts are positive or negative, the customer response is reflected in the sales and tries to identify the information. However, many reviews on a website are not always good, and difficult to identify. The earlier studies in this research area used the reviews data of the Amazon.com shopping mal, but the research data used in the recent studies uses the data for stock market trends, blogs, news articles, weather forecasts, IMDB, and facebook etc. However, the lack of accuracy is recognized because sentiment calculations are changed according to the subject, paragraph, sentiment lexicon direction, and sentence strength. This study aims to classify the polarity analysis of sentiment analysis into positive and negative categories and increase the prediction accuracy of the polarity analysis using the pretrained IMDB review data set. First, the text classification algorithm related to sentiment analysis adopts the popular machine learning algorithms such as NB (naive bayes), SVM (support vector machines), XGboost, RF (random forests), and Gradient Boost as comparative models. Second, deep learning has demonstrated discriminative features that can extract complex features of data. Representative algorithms are CNN (convolution neural networks), RNN (recurrent neural networks), LSTM (long-short term memory). CNN can be used similarly to BoW when processing a sentence in vector format, but does not consider sequential data attributes. RNN can handle well in order because it takes into account the time information of the data, but there is a long-term dependency on memory. To solve the problem of long-term dependence, LSTM is used. For the comparison, CNN and LSTM were chosen as simple deep learning models. In addition to classical machine learning algorithms, CNN, LSTM, and the integrated models were analyzed. Although there are many parameters for the algorithms, we examined the relationship between numerical value and precision to find the optimal combination. And, we tried to figure out how the models work well for sentiment analysis and how these models work. This study proposes integrated CNN and LSTM algorithms to extract the positive and negative features of text analysis. The reasons for mixing these two algorithms are as follows. CNN can extract features for the classification automatically by applying convolution layer and massively parallel processing. LSTM is not capable of highly parallel processing. Like faucets, the LSTM has input, output, and forget gates that can be moved and controlled at a desired time. These gates have the advantage of placing memory blocks on hidden nodes. The memory block of the LSTM may not store all the data, but it can solve the CNN's long-term dependency problem. Furthermore, when LSTM is used in CNN's pooling layer, it has an end-to-end structure, so that spatial and temporal features can be designed simultaneously. In combination with CNN-LSTM, 90.33% accuracy was measured. This is slower than CNN, but faster than LSTM. The presented model was more accurate than other models. In addition, each word embedding layer can be improved when training the kernel step by step. CNN-LSTM can improve the weakness of each model, and there is an advantage of improving the learning by layer using the end-to-end structure of LSTM. Based on these reasons, this study tries to enhance the classification accuracy of movie reviews using the integrated CNN-LSTM model.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.482-488
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• 2014

This paper aims to analyze user's emotion automatically by analyzing Twitter, a representative social network service (SNS). In order to create sentiment analysis models by using machine learning techniques, sentiment labels that represent positive/negative emotions are required. However it is very expensive to obtain sentiment labels of tweets. So, in this paper, we propose a sentiment analysis model by using self-training technique in order to utilize "data without sentiment labels" as well as "data with sentiment labels". Self-training technique is that labels of "data without sentiment labels" is determined by utilizing "data with sentiment labels", and then updates models using together with "data with sentiment labels" and newly labeled data. This technique improves the sentiment analysis performance gradually. However, it has a problem that misclassifications of unlabeled data in an early stage affect the model updating through the whole learning process because labels of unlabeled data never changes once those are determined. Thus, labels of "data without sentiment labels" needs to be carefully determined. In this paper, in order to get high performance using self-training technique, we propose 3 policies for updating "data with sentiment labels" and conduct a comparative analysis. The first policy is to select data of which confidence is higher than a given threshold among newly labeled data. The second policy is to choose the same number of the positive and negative data in the newly labeled data in order to avoid the imbalanced class learning problem. The third policy is to choose newly labeled data less than a given maximum number in order to avoid the updates of large amount of data at a time for gradual model updates. Experiments are conducted using Stanford data set and the data set is classified into positive and negative. As a result, the learned model has a high performance than the learned models by using "data with sentiment labels" only and the self-training with a regular model update policy.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.79-99
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• 2015

The prediction of bankruptcy has been extensively studied in the accounting and finance field. It can have an important impact on lending decisions and the profitability of financial institutions in terms of risk management. Many researchers have focused on constructing a more robust bankruptcy prediction model. Early studies primarily used statistical techniques such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis for bankruptcy prediction. However, many studies have demonstrated that artificial intelligence (AI) approaches, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, case-based reasoning (CBR), and support vector machine (SVM), have been outperforming statistical techniques since 1990s for business classification problems because statistical methods have some rigid assumptions in their application. In previous studies on corporate bankruptcy, many researchers have focused on developing a bankruptcy prediction model using financial ratios. However, there are few studies that suggest the specific types of bankruptcy. Previous bankruptcy prediction models have generally been interested in predicting whether or not firms will become bankrupt. Most of the studies on bankruptcy types have focused on reviewing the previous literature or performing a case study. Thus, this study develops a model using data mining techniques for predicting the specific types of bankruptcy as well as the occurrence of bankruptcy in Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms in terms of profitability, stability, and activity index. Thus, firms will be able to prevent it from occurring in advance. We propose a hybrid approach using two artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of bankruptcy types. The first is a back-propagation neural network (BPN) model using supervised learning for bankruptcy prediction and the second is a self-organizing map (SOM) model using unsupervised learning to classify bankruptcy data into several types. Based on the constructed model, we predict the bankruptcy of companies by applying the BPN model to a validation set that was not utilized in the development of the model. This allows for identifying the specific types of bankruptcy by using bankruptcy data predicted by the BPN model. We calculated the average of selected input variables through statistical test for each cluster to interpret characteristics of the derived clusters in the SOM model. Each cluster represents bankruptcy type classified through data of bankruptcy firms, and input variables indicate financial ratios in interpreting the meaning of each cluster. The experimental result shows that each of five bankruptcy types has different characteristics according to financial ratios. Type 1 (severe bankruptcy) has inferior financial statements except for EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) to sales based on the clustering results. Type 2 (lack of stability) has a low quick ratio, low stockholder's equity to total assets, and high total borrowings to total assets. Type 3 (lack of activity) has a slightly low total asset turnover and fixed asset turnover. Type 4 (lack of profitability) has low retained earnings to total assets and EBITDA to sales which represent the indices of profitability. Type 5 (recoverable bankruptcy) includes firms that have a relatively good financial condition as compared to other bankruptcy types even though they are bankrupt. Based on the findings, researchers and practitioners engaged in the credit evaluation field can obtain more useful information about the types of corporate bankruptcy. In this paper, we utilized the financial ratios of firms to classify bankruptcy types. It is important to select the input variables that correctly predict bankruptcy and meaningfully classify the type of bankruptcy. In a further study, we will include non-financial factors such as size, industry, and age of the firms. Thus, we can obtain realistic clustering results for bankruptcy types by combining qualitative factors and reflecting the domain knowledge of experts.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.147-163
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• 2016

Gender information of a smart device user is essential to provide personalized services, and multi-modal data obtained from the device is useful for predicting the gender of the user. However, the method for utilizing each of the multi-modal data for gender prediction differs according to the characteristics of the data. Therefore, in this study, an ensemble method for predicting the gender of a smart device user by using three classifiers that have text, application, and acceleration data as inputs, respectively, is proposed. To alleviate privacy issues that occur when text data generated in a smart device are sent outside, a classification method which scans smart device text data only on the device and classifies the gender of the user by matching text data with predefined sets of word. An application based classifier assigns gender labels to executed applications and predicts gender of the user by comparing the label ratio. Acceleration data is used with Support Vector Machine to classify user gender. The proposed method was evaluated by using the actual smart device log data collected from an Android application. The experimental results showed that the proposed method outperformed the compared methods.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.183-190
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• 2011

In this paper, we propose a prototype system for abnormal sound detection and identification which detects and recognizes the abnormal situations by means of analyzing audio information coming in real time from CCTV cameras under surveillance environment. The proposed system is composed of two layers: The first layer is an one-class support vector machine, i.e., support vector data description (SVDD) that performs rapid detection of abnormal situations and alerts to the manager. The second layer classifies the detected abnormal sound into predefined class such as 'gun', 'scream', 'siren', 'crash', 'bomb' via a sparse representation classifier (SRC) to cope with emergency situations. The proposed system is designed in a hierarchical manner via a mixture of SVDD and SRC, which has desired characteristics as follows: 1) By fast detecting abnormal sound using SVDD trained with only normal sound, it does not perform the unnecessary classification for normal sound. 2) It ensures a reliable system performance via a SRC that has been successfully applied in the field of face recognition. 3) With the intrinsic incremental learning capability of SRC, it can actively adapt itself to the change of a sound database. The experimental results with the qualitative analysis illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method.