• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.50 no.4
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• pp.701-716
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• 2022

Purpose: This study aims to predict the dry cargo transportation market economy. The subject of this study is the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) time-series, an index representing the dry cargo transport market. Methods: In order to increase the accuracy of the BDI time-series, we have pre-processed the original time-series via time-series decomposition and data augmentation techniques and have used them for ANN learning. The ANN algorithms used are Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to compare and analyze the case of learning and predicting by applying time-series decomposition and data augmentation techniques. The forecast period aims to make short-term predictions at the time of t+1. The period to be studied is from '22. 01. 07 to '22. 08. 26. Results: Only for the case of the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) indicator, all ANN models used in the research has resulted in higher accuracy (1.422% on average) in multivariate prediction. Although it is not a remarkable improvement in prediction accuracy compared to uni-variate prediction results, it can be said that the improvement in ANN prediction performance has been achieved by utilizing time-series decomposition and data augmentation techniques that were significant and targeted throughout this study. Conclusion: Nevertheless, due to the nature of ANN, additional performance improvements can be expected according to the adjustment of the hyper-parameter. Therefore, it is necessary to try various applications of multiple learning algorithms and ANN optimization techniques. Such an approach would help solve problems with a small number of available data, such as the rapidly changing business environment or the current shipping market.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.361-381
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• 2023

Research on corporate bankruptcy prediction has been focused on financial information. Since the company's financial information is updated quarterly, there is a problem that timeliness is insufficient in predicting the possibility of a company's business closure in real time. Evaluated companies that want to improve this need a method of judging the soundness of a company that uses information other than financial information to judge the soundness of a target company. To this end, as information technology has made it easier to collect non-financial information about companies, research has been conducted to apply additional variables and various methodologies other than financial information to predict corporate bankruptcy. It has become an important research task to determine whether it has an effect. In this study, we examined the impact of electronic payment-related information, which constitutes non-financial information, when predicting the closure of business operators using electronic payment service and examined the difference in closure prediction accuracy according to the combination of financial and non-financial information. Specifically, three research models consisting of a financial information model, a non-financial information model, and a combined model were designed, and the closure prediction accuracy was confirmed with six algorithms including the Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) algorithm. The model combining financial and non-financial information showed the highest prediction accuracy, followed by the non-financial information model and the financial information model in order. As for the prediction accuracy of business closure by algorithm, XGBoost showed the highest prediction accuracy among the six algorithms. As a result of examining the relative importance of a total of 87 variables used to predict business closure, it was confirmed that more than 70% of the top 20 variables that had a significant impact on the prediction of business closure were non-financial information. Through this, it was confirmed that electronic payment-related information of non-financial information is an important variable in predicting business closure, and the possibility of using non-financial information as an alternative to financial information was also examined. Based on this study, the importance of collecting and utilizing non-financial information as information that can predict business closure is recognized, and a plan to utilize it for corporate decision-making is also proposed.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.131-145
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• 2020

In line with the trend of industrial innovation, IoT technology utilized in a variety of fields is emerging as a key element in creation of new business models and the provision of user-friendly services through the combination of big data. The accumulated data from devices with the Internet-of-Things (IoT) is being used in many ways to build a convenience-based smart system as it can provide customized intelligent systems through user environment and pattern analysis. Recently, it has been applied to innovation in the public domain and has been using it for smart city and smart transportation, such as solving traffic and crime problems using CCTV. In particular, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the easiness of securing real-time service data and the stability of security when planning underground services or establishing movement amount control information system to enhance citizens' or commuters' convenience in circumstances with the congestion of public transportation such as subways, urban railways, etc. However, previous studies that utilize image data have limitations in reducing the performance of object detection under private issue and abnormal conditions. The IoT device-based sensor data used in this study is free from private issue because it does not require identification for individuals, and can be effectively utilized to build intelligent public services for unspecified people. Especially, sensor data stored by the IoT device need not be identified to an individual, and can be effectively utilized for constructing intelligent public services for many and unspecified people as data free form private issue. We utilize the IoT-based infrared sensor devices for an intelligent pedestrian tracking system in metro service which many people use on a daily basis and temperature data measured by sensors are therein transmitted in real time. The experimental environment for collecting data detected in real time from sensors was established for the equally-spaced midpoints of 4×4 upper parts in the ceiling of subway entrances where the actual movement amount of passengers is high, and it measured the temperature change for objects entering and leaving the detection spots. The measured data have gone through a preprocessing in which the reference values for 16 different areas are set and the difference values between the temperatures in 16 distinct areas and their reference values per unit of time are calculated. This corresponds to the methodology that maximizes movement within the detection area. In addition, the size of the data was increased by 10 times in order to more sensitively reflect the difference in temperature by area. For example, if the temperature data collected from the sensor at a given time were 28.5℃, the data analysis was conducted by changing the value to 285. As above, the data collected from sensors have the characteristics of time series data and image data with 4×4 resolution. Reflecting the characteristics of the measured, preprocessed data, we finally propose a hybrid algorithm that combines CNN in superior performance for image classification and LSTM, especially suitable for analyzing time series data, as referred to CNN-LSTM (Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). In the study, the CNN-LSTM algorithm is used to predict the number of passing persons in one of 4×4 detection areas. We verified the validation of the proposed model by taking performance comparison with other artificial intelligence algorithms such as Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and RNN-LSTM (Recurrent Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). As a result of the experiment, proposed CNN-LSTM hybrid model compared to MLP, LSTM and RNN-LSTM has the best predictive performance. By utilizing the proposed devices and models, it is expected various metro services will be provided with no illegal issue about the personal information such as real-time monitoring of public transport facilities and emergency situation response services on the basis of congestion. However, the data have been collected by selecting one side of the entrances as the subject of analysis, and the data collected for a short period of time have been applied to the prediction. There exists the limitation that the verification of application in other environments needs to be carried out. In the future, it is expected that more reliability will be provided for the proposed model if experimental data is sufficiently collected in various environments or if learning data is further configured by measuring data in other sensors.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.69-78
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• 1999

In this paper, a neural network approach to forecast Korean regional precipitation is presented. We first analyze the characteristics of the conventional models for time series prediction, and then propose a new model and its learning method for the precipitation forecast. The proposed model is a layered network in which the outputs of a layer are buffered within a given period time and then fed fully connected to the upper layer. This study adopted the dual connections between two layers for the model. The network behavior and learning algorithm for the model are also described. The dual connection structure plays the role of the bias of the ordinary Multi-Layer Perceptron(MLP), and reflects the relationships among the features effectively. From these advantageous features, the model provides the learning efficiency in comparison with the FIR network, which is the most popular model for time series prediction. We have applied the model to the monthly and seasonal forecast of precipitation. The precipitation data and SST(Sea Surface Temperature) data for several decades are used as the learning pattern for the neural network predictor. The experimental results have shown the validity of the proposed model.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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• v.47 no.6
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• pp.57-65
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• 2010

In this paper, we present a universal steganalysis scheme. The proposed method extract features of two types. First feature set is extracted from histogram characteristic of the wavelet subbands. Second feature set is determined by statistical moments of wavelet characteristic functions. 3-level wavelet decomposition is performed for stego image and cover image using the Haar wavelet basis. We extract one features from 9 high frequency subbands of 12 subbands. The number of second features is 39. We use total 48 features for steganalysis. Multi layer perceptron(MLP) is applied as classifier to distinguish between cover images and stego images. To evaluate the proposed steganalysis method, we use the CorelDraw image database. We test the performance of our proposed steganalysis method over LSB method, spread spectrum data hiding method, blind spread spectrum data hiding method and F5 data hiding method. The proposed method outperforms the previous methods in sensitivity, specificity, error rate and area under ROC curve, etc.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.18-18
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• 2011

Climate change is impacting and will increasingly impact both the quantity and quality of the world's water resources in a variety of ways. In some areas warming climate results in increased rainfall, surface runoff, and groundwater recharge while in others there may be declines in all of these. Water quality is described by a number of variables. Some are directly impacted by climate change. Temperature is an obvious example. Notably, increased atmospheric concentrations of $CO_2$ triggering climate change increase the $CO_2$ dissolving into water. This has manifold consequences including decreased pH and increased alkalinity, with resultant increases in dissolved concentrations of the minerals in geologic materials contacted by such water. Climate change is also expected to increase the number and intensity of extreme climate events, with related hydrologic changes. A simple framework has been developed in New Zealand for assessing and predicting climate change impacts on water resources. Assessment is largely based on trend analysis of historic data using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall method. Trend analysis requires long-term, regular monitoring data for both climate and hydrologic variables. Data quality is of primary importance and data gaps must be avoided. Quantitative prediction of climate change impacts on the quantity of water resources can be accomplished by computer modelling. This requires the serial coupling of various models. For example, regional downscaling of results from a world-wide general circulation model (GCM) can be used to forecast temperatures and precipitation for various emissions scenarios in specific catchments. Mechanistic or artificial intelligence modelling can then be used with these inputs to simulate climate change impacts over time, such as changes in streamflow, groundwater-surface water interactions, and changes in groundwater levels. The Waimea Plains catchment in New Zealand was selected for a test application of these assessment and prediction methods. This catchment is predicted to undergo relatively minor impacts due to climate change. All available climate and hydrologic databases were obtained and analyzed. These included climate (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and sunshine hours, evapotranspiration, humidity, and cloud cover) and hydrologic (streamflow and quality and groundwater levels and quality) records. Results varied but there were indications of atmospheric temperature increasing, rainfall decreasing, streamflow decreasing, and groundwater level decreasing trends. Artificial intelligence modelling was applied to predict water usage, rainfall recharge of groundwater, and upstream flow for two regionally downscaled climate change scenarios (A1B and A2). The AI methods used were multi-layer perceptron (MLP) with extended Kalman filtering (EKF), genetic programming (GP), and a dynamic neuro-fuzzy local modelling system (DNFLMS), respectively. These were then used as inputs to a mechanistic groundwater flow-surface water interaction model (MODFLOW). A DNFLMS was also used to simulate downstream flow and groundwater levels for comparison with MODFLOW outputs. MODFLOW and DNFLMS outputs were consistent. They indicated declines in streamflow on the order of 21 to 23% for MODFLOW and DNFLMS (A1B scenario), respectively, and 27% in both cases for the A2 scenario under severe drought conditions by 2058-2059, with little if any change in groundwater levels.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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• v.3 no.9
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• pp.361-368
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• 2014

The LPR(License plate recognition) system has been developed to efficient control for complex traffic environment and currently be used in many places. However, because of light, noise, background changes, environmental changes, damaged plate, it only works limited environment, so it is difficult to use in real-time. This paper presents a heuristic segmentation algorithm for robust to noise and illumination changes and introduce a real-time license plate recognition system using it. In first step, We detect the plate utilized Haar-like feature and Adaboost. This method is possible to rapid detection used integral image and cascade structure. Second step, we determine the type of license plate with adaptive histogram equalization, bilateral filtering for denoise and segment accurate character based on adaptive threshold, pixel projection and associated with the prior knowledge. The last step is character recognition that used histogram of oriented gradients (HOG) and multi-layer perceptron(MLP) for number recognition and support vector machine(SVM) for number and Korean character classifier respectively. The experimental results show license plate detection rate of 94.29%, license plate false alarm rate of 2.94%. In character segmentation method, character hit rate is 97.23% and character false alarm rate is 1.37%. And in character recognition, the average character recognition rate is 98.38%. Total average running time in our proposed method is 140ms. It is possible to be real-time system with efficiency and robustness.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.45-55
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• 2022

BIM models allow building spaces to be instantiated and recognized as unique objects independently of model elements. These instantiated spaces provide the required semantics that can be leveraged for building code checking, energy analysis, and evacuation route analysis. However, theses spaces or rooms need to be designated manually, which in practice, lead to errors and omissions. Thus, most BIM models today does not guarantee the semantic integrity of space designations, limiting their potential applicability. Recent studies have explored ways to automate space allocation in BIM models using artificial intelligence algorithms, but they are limited in their scope and relatively low classification accuracy. This study explored the use of Graph Convolutional Networks, an algorithm exclusively tailored for graph data structures. The goal was to utilize not only geometry information but also the semantic relational data between spaces and elements in the BIM model. Results of the study confirmed that the accuracy was improved by about 8% compared to algorithms that only used geometric distinctions of the individual spaces.

• Knowledge Management Research
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.277-299
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• 2022

The massive card transaction data generated in the tourism industry has become an important resource that implies tourist consumption behaviors and patterns. Based on the transaction data, developing a smart service system becomes one of major goals in both tourism businesses and knowledge management system developer communities. However, the lack of rating scores, which is the basis of traditional recommendation techniques, makes it hard for system designers to evaluate a learning process. In addition, other auxiliary factors such as temporal, spatial, and demographic information are needed to increase the performance of a recommendation system; but, gathering those are not easy in the card transaction context. In this paper, we introduce CTDDTR, a novel approach using card transaction data to recommend tourism services. It consists of two main components: i) Temporal preference Embedding (TE) represents tourist groups and services into vectors through Doc2Vec. And ii) Deep tourism Recommendation (DR) integrates the vectors and the auxiliary factors from a tourism RDF (resource description framework) through MLP (multi-layer perceptron) to provide services to tourist groups. In addition, we adopt RFM analysis from the field of knowledge management to generate explicit feedback (i.e., rating scores) used in the DR part. To evaluate CTDDTR, the card transactions data that happened over eight years on Jeju island is used. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method is more positive in effectiveness and efficacies.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.179-186
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• 2006

In this study, Multi-Layer Perceptron(MLP) among models of Artificial Neural Network(ANN) is used for the development of a model that evaluates the bending capacities of reinforced concrete beams strengthened by FRP Rebar. And the data of the existing researches are used for materials of ANN model. As the independent variables of input layer, main components of bending capacities, width, effective depth, compressive strength, reinforcing ratio of FRP, balanced steel ratio of FRP are used. And the moment performance measured in the experiment is used as the dependent variable of output layer. The developed model of ANN could be applied by GFRP, CFRP and AFRP Rebar and the model is verified by using the documents of other previous researchers. As the result of the ANN model presumption, comparatively precise presumption values are achieved to presume its bending capacities at the model of ANN(0.05), while observing remarkable errors in the model of ANN(0.1). From the verification of the ANN model, it is identified that the presumption values comparatively correspond to the given data ones of the experiment. In addition, from the Sensitivity Analysis of evaluation variables of bending performance, effective depth has the highest influence, followed by steel ratio of FRP, balanced steel ratio, compressive strength and width in order.