• Korean Security Journal
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• no.1
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• pp.371-408
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• 1997

This article is the reserch on actual condition of crime of arson which occurs in Korea and its countermeasures. The the presented problem in this article are that (1) we have generally very low rate concern about the crime of arson contrary to realistic problems of rapid increase of crime of arson (2) as such criminal motives became so diverse as to the economic or criminal purpose unlike characteristic and mental deficiency of old days, and to countermeasure these problems effectively it presentation the necessity of systemantic research. Based on analysis of reality of arson, the tendency of this arson in Korea in the ratio of increase is said to be higher than those in violence crime or general fire rate. and further its rate is far more greater than those of the U.S.A. and Japan. Arson is considered to be a method of using fire as crime and in case of presently residence to be the abject, it is a public offense crime which aqccompany fatality in human life. This is the well It now fact to all of us. And further in order to presentation to the crime of arson, strictness of criminal law (criminal law No, 164 and 169, and fire protection law No. 110 and 111) and classification of arsonist as felony are institutionary reinforced to punish with certainty of possibility, Therefore, as tendency of arson has been increased compared to other nations, it is necessary to supplement strategical policy to bring out overall concerns of the seriousness of risk and damage of arson, which have been resulted from the lack of understanding. In characteristics analysis of crime of arson, (1) It is now reveald that, in the past such crime rate appeared far more within the boundary of town or city areas in the past, presently increased rate of arsons in rural areas are far more than in the town or small city areas, thereby showing characteristics of crime of arson extending nation wide. (2) general timetable of arson shows that night more than day time rate, and reveald that is trait behavior in secrecy.(3) arsonists are usually arrested at site or by victim or report of third person(82,9%).Investigation activities or self surrenders rate only 11.2%. The time span of arrest is normally the same day of arson and at times it takes more than one year to arrest. This reveals its necessity to prepare for long period of time for arrest, (4) age rate of arson is in their thirties mostly as compared to homicide, robbery and adultery, and considerable numbers of arsons are in old age of over fifties. It reveals age rate is increased (5) Over half of the arsonists are below the junior high school (6) the rate of convicts by thier records is based on first offenders primarily and secondly more than 4 time convicts. This apparently shows necessity of effective correctional education policy for their social assimilation together with re-investigation of human education at the primary and secondary education system in thier life. The examples of motivation for arosnits, such as personal animosity, fury, monetary swindle, luscious purpose and other aims of destroying of proof, and other social resistance, violence including ways of threatening, beside the motives of individual defects, are diverse and arsonic suicide and specifically suicidal accompany together keenly manifested. When we take this fact with the criminal theory, it really reveals arsons of crime are increasing and its casualities are serious and a point as a way of suicide is the anomie theory of Durkheim and comensurate with the theory of that of Merton, Specifically in the arson of industrial complex, it is revealed that one with revolutionary motive or revolting motive would do the arsonic act. For the policy of prevention of arsons, professional research work in organizational cooperation for preventive activities is conducted in municipal or city wise functions in the name of Parson Taskforces and beside a variety of research institutes in federal government have been operating effectively to countermeasure in many fields of research. Franch and Sweden beside the U.S. set up a overall operation of fire prevention research funtions and have obtained very successful result. Japan also put their research likewise for countermeasure. In this research as a way of preventive fire policy, first, it is necessary to accomodate the legal preventitive activities for fire prevention in judicial side and as an administrative side, (1) precise statistic management of crime of arson (2) establishment of professional research functions or a corporate (3) improvement of system for cooperative structural team for investigation of fires and menpower organization of professional members. Secondly, social mentality in individual prospect, recognition of fires by arson and youth education of such effect, educational program for development and practical promotion. Thirdly, in view of environmental side, the ways of actual performance by programming with the establishment of cooperative advancement in local social function elements with administrative office, habitants, school facilities and newspapers measures (2) establishment of personal protection where weak menpowers are displayed in special fire prevention measures. These measures are presented for prevention of crime of arson. The control of crime and prevention shall be prepared as a means of self defence by the principle of self responsibility Specifically arsonists usually aims at the comparatively weak control of fire prevention is prevalent and it is therefore necessary to prepare individual facilities with their spontaneous management of fire prevention instead of public municipal funtures of local geverment. As Clifford L. Karchmer asserted instead of concerns about who would commit arson, what portion of area would be the target of the arson. It is effective to minister spontaveously the fire prevention measure in his facility with the consideration of characteristics of arson. On the other hand, it is necessary for the concerned personnel of local goverment and groups to distribute to the local society in timely manner for new information about the fire prevention, thus contribute to effective result of fire prevention result. In consideration of these factors, it is inevitable to never let coincide with the phemonemon of arsons in similar or mimic features as recognized that these could prevail just an epedemic as a strong imitational attitude. In processing of policy to encounter these problems, it is necessary to place priority of city policy to enhancement of overall concerns toward the definitive essense of crime of arson.

• The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.3-54
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• 2014

The Republic of Korea enacted the Air Transport Act in Commercial Law which was entered into force in November, 2011. The Air Transport Act in Korean Commercial Law was established to regulate domestic carriage by air and damages to the third party which occur within the territorial area caused by aircraft operations. There are some problems to be reformed in the Provisions of Korean Commercial Law for the aircraft operator's liability of compensation for damages to the third party caused by aircraft operation as follows. First, the aircraft operator's liability of compensation for damages needs to be improved because it is too low to compensate adequately to the third party damaged owing to the aircraft operation. Therefore, the standard of classifying per aircraft weight is required to be detailed from the current 4-tier into 10-tier and the total limited amount of liability is also in need of being increased to the maximum 7-hundred-million SDR. In addition, the limited amount of liability to the personal damage is necessary to be risen from the present 125,000 SDR to 625,000 SDR according to the recent rate of prices increase. This is the most desirable way to improve the current provisions given the ordinary insurance coverage per one aircraft accident and various specifications of recent aircraft in order to compensate the damaged appropriately. Second, the aircraft operator shall be liable without fault to damages caused by terrorism such as hijacking, attacking an aircraft and utilizing it as means of attack like the 9 11 disaster according to the present Air Transport Act in Korean Commercial Law. Some argue that it is too harsh to aircraft operators and irrational, but given they have also some legal duties of preventing terrorism and in respect of helping the third party damaged, it does not look too harsh or irrational. However, it should be amended into exempting aircraft operator's liability when the terrorism using of an aircraft by well-organized terrorists group happens like 9 11 disaster in view of balancing the interest between the aircraft operator and the third party damaged. Third, considering the large scale of the damage caused by the aircraft operation usually aircraft accident, it is likely that many people damaged can be faced with a financial crisis, and the provision of advance payment for air carrier's liability of compensation also needs to be applied to the case of aircraft operator's liability. Fourth, the aircraft operator now shall be liable to the damages which occur in land or water except air according to the current Air Transport Act of Korean Commercial Law. However, because the damages related to the aircraft operation in air caused by another aircraft operation are not different from those in land or water. Therefore, the term of 'on the surface' should be eliminated in the term of 'third parties on the surface' in order to make the damages by the aircraft operation in air caused by another aircraft operation compensable by Air Transport Act of Korean Commercial Law. It is desired that the Air Transport Act in Commercial Law including the clauses related to the aircraft operator's liability of compensation for damages to the third party be developed continually through the resolutions about its problems mentioned above for compensating the third party damaged appropriately and balancing the interest between the damaged and the aircraft operator.

• 대한공업교육학회지
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.218-239
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• 2013

This study aims to understand the status of mandatory military service planning and career barrier recognition as well as to analyze the difference between how students perceive mandatory military service as a potential barrier to their future careers(career barrier recognition) and career preparation behavior by the mandatory military service planning level among male college students. For the purpose, inquiries for the subject were set up as follows. 1. What are the levels of mandatory military service planning and career barrier recognition? 2. Is there a difference in career barrier recognition depending on the level of mandatory military service planning? 3. Is there a difference in career preparation behaviour depending on the level of mandatory military service planning? This study found out the level of mandatory military service, military barrier recognition and career preparation behavior of 284 male students from 4 universities in Daejeon and Chungnam area. Along with that, descriptive statistic, correlation analysis and t-test were conducted with SPSS 17.0 program The results of this study are as follows: First, 79.2% of male students have higher mandatory military service planning than the average value. Meanwhile, considering 3 sub-factors of mandatory military service planning, the ratio of those with high scores in practicality is lower than importance and concreteness. Based on this, it is assumable that they have a low perception for practical and concrete behaviors such as data collection in mandatory military service planning, which indicates their awareness has not developed into concrete behaviors even though they recognize the importance of planning. Also 73.9% of male students responded higher career barrier recognition than the average value shows that they recognize mandatory military service as a barrier relatively highly. Especially, those who answered "Very much" (7 scores) for every inquiry in career barrier recognition accounted for 16.9%, which forms the biggest group. and considering the response by each inquiry, it is ascertained that they consider the absence by mandatory military service time or military service as the biggest difficulty. Second, the difference in career barrier recognition between the top 30% and bottom 30% of mandatory military service planning is not statistically significant. However, in terms of importance and the sub-factor of mandatory military service planning, a significant inter-group difference in career barrier recognition is shown. In other words, to join the military is recognized as an obstacle in their career barrier recognition regardless of the mandatory military service planning level. Also, a group which considers the importance of the mandatory military service planning highly recognizes the military as the bigger obstacle compared to the other groups which are not considered in this way. Third, the difference in career barrier recognition between the top 30% and the bottom 30% of the mandatory military service planning is statistically significant. The need of mandatory military service planning is marked by the fact that those with a high level of mandatory military service planning show stronger career barrier recognition than those without plans. Through the study, the need of mandatory military service planning is suggested to both male students and career consultants considering the mandatory military service from a perspective of career based on Korean reality. Also, as precedent studies on pre-inducted men can be hardly found currently, this study is significant in accumulating empirical data about mandatory military service, a unique characteristic of the Korean career development process.

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.482-492
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• 2000

Vesicular arbuscular mycorrhizal (VAM) fungi are known to increase plant growth as well as to enhance salt tolerance of plants where plant roots are colonized by VAM. In pot experiment, pepper was grown in soil containing 0, 200, 400, and $600P\;kg\;ha^{-1}$ with and without mycorrhizal inoculum. Pots were irrigated with saline water containing 0.5, 2.0, and $6.0dS\;m^{-1}$. At 0, 200, and $400P\;kg\;ha^{-1}$ of three EC treatments, plant hight in mycorrhizal treatments was significantly different compared to nonmycorrhizal treatments. However, plant hight at $600P\;kg\;ha^{-1}$ was not different between mycorrhizal and nomycorrhizal treatments. Leaf area at $0P\;kg\;ha^{-1}$ of three EC treatments, and $200P\;kg\;ha^{-1}$ of $6.0dS\;m^{-1}$ in mycorrhizal treatments significantly increased compared to nonmycorrhizal treatments. However, these increase were not discovered in high salinity and P level. Level of EC affected dry weight, and especially, interection of P and EC, or P and VA inoculation highly affected root dry weight. R/S ratio generally decreased in mycorrhizal treatments. Significantly decreased R/S ratio was shown at 0, 400, and $600P\;kg\;ha^{-1}$ of $6.0dS\;m^{-1}$. Chlorophyll content generally increased with decreased salinity and P level where mycorrhizal treatments showed higher chlorophyll content compared to nonmycorrhizal treatments. The benefits of VAM inoculation on fruit production was discovered at only low P level and salinity. Mycorrhizal dependency on dry weight basis was generally shown in $0P\;kg\;ha^{-1}$ of three EC treatments and 0.5, $2.0dS\;m^{-1}$ of $200P\;kg\;ha^{-1}$ level. Colonization rate ranged 3.3 to 43.3% and number of spores was 47.7 to 198.3 $100g^{-1}$ soil. Colonization rate and number of spores increased with decreased P level and salinity where there was high correlation ($r=0.858^{**}$) between both. Also improved uptake of mineral nutrients was discovered at mycorrhizal treatments in decreased P level and salinity.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.393-402
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• 1997

Purpose : When an x-ray beam of small field size is irradiated to target area containing an air cavity, such as larynx, the underdosing effect is observed in the region near the interfaces of air and soft tissue. With a larynx model, air cavity embedded in tissue-equivalent material, this study is intonded for examining Parameters, such as beam quality, field size, and cavity size, to affect the dose distribution near the air cavity. Materials and Methods : Three x-rar beams, 4-, 6- and 10-MV, were employed to Perform a measurement using a 2cm $(width){\times}L$ (length in cm, one side of x-ray field used 2cm (height) air cavity in the simulated larynx. A thin window parallel-plate chamber connected to an electrometer was used for a dosimetry system. A ratio of the dose at various distances from the cavity-tissue interface to the dose at the same points in a homogeneous Phantom (ebservedlexpected ratio, O/E) normalized buildup curves, and ratio of distal surface dose to dose at the maximum buildup depth were examined for various field sizes. Measurement for cavity size effect was performed by varying the height (Z) of the air cavity with the width kept constant for several field sizes. Results : No underdosing effect for 4-MV beam for fields larger than $5cm\times5cm$ was found For both 6- and 10-MV beams, the underdosing portion of the larynx at the distal surface was seen to occur for small fields, $4cm\times4cm\;and\;5cm\times5cm$. The underdosed tissue was increased in its volume with beam energy even for similar surface doses. The relative distal surface dose to maximum dose was changed to 0.99 from 0.95, 0.92, and 0.91 for 4-, 6-, and 10-MV, respectively, with increasing field size, $4cm\times4cm\;to\;8cm\times8cm$, For 6- and 10-MV beams, the dose at the surface of the cavity is measured less than the predicted by about two and three percent. respectively. but decrease was found for 4-MV beam for $5cm\times5cm$ field. For the $4cm\timesL\timesZ$ (height in cm). varying depth from 0.0 to 4.8cm, cavity, O/E> 1.0 was observed regardless of the cavity size for any field larger than about $8cm\times8cm$. Conclusion : The magnitude of underdosing depends on beam energy, field size. and cavity size for the larynx model. Based on the result of the study. caution must be used when a small field of a high quality x-ray beam is irradiated to regions including air cavities. and especially the region where the tumor extends to the surface. Low quality beam. such as. 4-MV x-ray, and larger fields can be used preferably to reduce the risk of underdosing, local failure. In the case of high quality beams such as 6- and 10-MV x-rays, however. an additional boost field is recommended to add for the compensation of the underdosing region when a typically used treatment field. $8cm\times8cm$, is employed.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.204-212
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• 2008

Purpose: This study was performed to evaluate the disease-free survival and risk factors of recurrence in early breast cancer patients who have undergone breast conserving surgery and radiation therapy. Materials and Methods: From March 1997 to December 2002, 77 breast cancer patients who underwent breast conserving surgery and radiation therapy were reviewed retrospectively. The median follow-up time was 58.4 months (range $43.8{\sim}129.4$ months) and the mean subject age was 41 years. The frequency distribution of the different T stages, based on the tumor characteristics was 38 (49.3%) for T1, 28 (36.3%) for T2, 3 for T3, 7 for T is and 1 for an unidentified sized tumor. In addition, 52 patients (67.5%) did not have axillary lymph metastasis, whereas 14 patients (18.1%) had $1{\sim}3$ lymph node metastases and 3 (0.03%) had more than 4 lymph node metastases. The resection margin was negative in 59 patients, close (${\leq}2\;mm$) in 15, and positive in 4. All patients received radiation therapy at the intact breast using tangential fields with a subsequent electron beam boost to the tumor bed at a total dose ranging from 59.4 Gy to 66.4 Gy. Patients with more than four positive axillary lymph nodes received radiation therapy ($41.4{\sim}60.4\;Gy$) at the axillary and supraclavicular area. Chemotherapy was administered in 59 patients and tamoxifen or fareston was administered in 29 patients. Results: The 5 year overall survival and disease-free survival rates were 98.08% and 93.49%, respectively. Of the 77 patients, a total of 4 relapses (5.2%), including 1 isolated supraclavicular relapse, 1 supraclavicular relapse with synchronous multiple distant relapses, and 2 distant relapses were observed. No cases of local breast relapses were observed. Lymph node metastasis or number of metastatic lymph nodes was not found to be statistically related with a relapse (p=0.3289) nor disease-free survival (p=0.1430). Patients with positive margins had a significantly shorter disease-free survival period (p<0.0001) and higher relapse rates (p=0.0507). However, patients with close margins were at equal risk of relapse and disease-free survival as with negative margins (p=1.000). Patients younger than 40 years of age had higher relapse rates (9.3% vs. 0%) and lower disease-free survival periods, but the difference was not statistically significant (p=0.1255). The relapse rates for patients with tumors was 14% for tumor stage T2, compared to 0% for tumor stage T1 tumors (p=0.0284). A univariate analysis found that disease-free survival and relapse rates, T stage, positive resection margin and mutation of p53 were significant factors for clinical outcome. Conclusion: The results of this study have shown that breast conservation surgery and radiation therapy in early breast cancer patients has proven to be a safe treatment modality with a low relapse rate and high disease-free survival rate. The patients with a positive margin, T2 stage, and mutation of p53 are associated with statistically higher relapse rates and lower disease-free survival.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.26-44
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• 2017

Regarded as Korea's traditional pond, Gungnamj Pond was surmised to be "Gungnamji" due to its geological positioning in the south of Hwajisan (花枝山) and relics of the Gwanbuk-ri (官北里) suspected of being components to the historical records of Muwang (武王)'s pond of The Chronicles of the Three States [三國史記] and Sabi Palace, respectively, yet was subjected to a restoration following a designation to national historic site. This study is focused on the distortion of authenticity identified in the course of the "Gungnamji Pond" restoration and the invention of tradition, whose summarized conclusions are as follows. 1. Once called Maraebangjuk (마래방죽), or Macheonji (馬川池) Pond, Gungnamji Pond was existent in the form of a low-level swamp of vast area encompassing 30,000 pyeong during the Japanese colonial period. Hong, Sa-jun, who played a leading role in the restoration of "Gungnamji Pond," said that even during the 1940s, the remains of the island and stone facilities suspected of being the relics of Gungnamji Pond of the Baekje period were found, and that the traces of forming a royal palace and garden were discovered on top of them. Hong, Sa-jun also expressed an opinion of establishing a parallel between "Gungnamji Pond" and "Maraebangjuk" in connection with a 'tale of Seodong [薯童說話]' in the aftermath of the detached palace of Hwajisan, which ultimately operated as a theoretical ground for the restoration of Gungnamj Pond. Assessing through Hong, Sa-jun's sketch, the form and scale of Maraebangjuk were visible, of which the form was in close proximity to that photographed during the Japanese colonial period. 2. The minimized restoration of Gungnamji Pond faced deterrence for the land redevelopment project implemented in the 1960s, and the remainder of the land size is an attestment. The fundamental problem manifest in the restoration of Gungnamji Pond numerously attempted from 1964 through 1967 was the failure of basing the restorative work in the archaeological facts yet in the perspective of the latest generations, ultimately yielding a replication of Hyangwonji Pond of Gyeongbok Palace. More specifically, the methodologies employed in setting an island and a pavilion within a pond, or bridging an island with a land evidenced as to how Gungnamji Pond was modeled after Hyangwonji Pond of Gyeongbok Palace. Furthermore, Chihyanggyo (醉香橋) Bridge referenced in the designing of the bridge was hardly conceived as a form indigenous to the Joseon Dynasty, whose motivation and idea of the misguided restoration design at the time all the more devaluated Gungnamji Pond. Such an utterly pure replication of the design widely known as an ingredient for the traditional landscape was purposive towards the aesthetic symbolism and preference retained by Gyeongbok Palace, which was intended to entitle Gungnamji Pond to a physical status of the value in par with that of Gyeongbok Palace. 3. For its detachment to the authenticity as a historical site since its origin, Gungnamji Pond represented distortions of the landscape beauty and tradition even through the restorative process. The restorative process for such a historical monument, devoid of constructive use and certain of distortion, maintains extreme intimacy with the nationalistic cultural policy promoted by the Park, Jeong-hee regime through the 1960s and 1970s. In the context of the "manipulated discussions of tradition," the Park's cultural policy transformed the citizens' recollection into an idealized form of the past, further magnifying it at best. Consequently, many of the historical sites emerged as fancy and grand as they possibly could beyond their status quo across the nation, and "Gungnamji Pond" was a victim to this monopolistic government-led cultural policy incrementally sweeping away with new buildings and structures instituted regardless of their original space, and hence, their value.

• Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.81-103
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• 2001

This study was conducted to identify the health behavior of middle-aged rural women and the factors that have an effect on them. For the purpose of the study, examinations were made from March 01, 2000 to March 31, 2000 with 468 women aged 40 to 64 out of 2,263 people whom four Primary Health Posts located in Yechon County, Kyongsangbuk-do Province, are in charge of. The results are summarized as follows. 17.5% of the subjects responded that the extent of their own interest in health were high. For the subjects having a chronic disease, a nuclear family, or an open family atmosphere, the extent appeared to be relatively higher, 15.4% responded that the extent of family's interest in their health was high. It was significantly high if the extent of education was high or if the family atmosphere was open. The subjects' average score of self-efficacy was 49.9 out of 68. The score significantly varied depending on religion, education, living together with a spouse or not, and the extent of the subjects' interest in health. The family pattern, family atmosphere, family's interest in the subjects' health were the variables that significantly influenced the self-efficacy. The average score of family function was 5.51 out of 10. The score significantly varies depending on age, education, occupation, financial status, the extent of the subjects' own interest in health, family atmosphere and family's interest in the subjects' health. In the practice of health behavior, the nonsmoking rate was 89.5%, the nondrinking rate 63.0%, the rate of exercising practice 6.6%, the rate of normal sleeping 75.6%, the rate of eating breakfast 91.7%, the rate of not eating between meals 18.2%, and the standard BMI 69.2%. In the frequency of health behavior, the subjects with the Breslow Index of 0-3, 4-5 and 6-7 accounted for 4.5%, 53.2%, and 42.3%, respectively. The average score of health behavior was 5.20 out of 7, in which significant variables were living together with a spouse or not, financial status, absence or presence of a chronic disease, and family atmosphere. In the multiple regression analysis with health behavior as a dependent variable, it was shown that living together with a spouse or not, financial status, and family atmosphere were the significantly substantial variables. The subjects were found to do health behavior well if they had not a spouse, a good financial status, or an open family atmosphere. They were also found to do health behavior well if the extent of self-efficacy was high or if the extent of family function was low, but these were not the significant variables. It is needed to develop a standard measuring tool fit for our environment and perform more studies in the future because the measuring tool used in this study was a tool developed in a foreign county. In promoting community health projects, it is required not to provide all community people with a uniform health program but to identify the health behavior of individuals and other variables such as living together with a spouse or not, financial status and family atmosphere before arranging for a proper health program.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.77-105
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• 1996

The rural problems which we are facing start from the extremely small sized population and the skewed population structure by age and sex. Thus we analyzed the change of the rural population. And we analyzed the recent return migration to the rural areas by comparing the recent in-migrants with out-migrants to rural areas. And by analyzing the rural village survey data which was to show the current characteristics of rural population, we found out the effects of the in-migrants to the rural areas and predicted the futures of rural villages by characteristics. The changes of rural population composition by age was very clear. As the out-migrants towards cities carried on, the population composition of young children aged 0~4 years was low and the aged became thick. The proportion of the population aged 0~4 years was 45.1% of the total population in 1970 and dropped down to 20.4% in 1995, which is predicted to become under 20% from now on. In the same period(1970~1995), the population aged 65 years and over rose from 4.2% to 11.9%. In 1960, before industrialization, the proportion of the population aged 0~4 years in rural areas was higher than that of cities. As the rural young population continuously moves to cities it became lower than that in urban areas from 1975 and the gap grew till 1990. But the proportion of rural population aged 0~4 years in 1995 became 6.2% and the gap reduced. We can say this is the change of the characteristics of in-migrants and out-migrants in the rural areas. Also considering the composition of the population by age group moving from urban to rural area in the late 1980s, 51.8% of the total migrants concentrates upon age group of 20~34 years and these people's educational level was higher than that of out-migrants to urban areas. This fact predicted the changes of the rural population, and the results will turn out as a change in the rural society. However, after comparing the population structure between the pure rural village of Boeun-gun and suburban village of Paju-gun which was agriculture centered village but recently changed rapidly, the recent change of the rural population structure which the in-migrants to rural areas becomes younger is just a phenomenon in the suburban rural areas, not the change of the total rural areas in general. From the characteristics of the population structure of rural village from the field survey on these villages, we can see that in the pure rural villages without any effects from cities the regidents are highly aged, while industrialization and urbanization are making a progress in suburban villages. Therefore, the recent partial change of the rural population structure and the change of characteristics of the in-migrants toward rural areas is effecting and being effected by the population change of areas like suburban rural villages. Although there are return migrants to rural areas to change their jobs into agriculture, this is too minor to appear as a statistic effect.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.35-48
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• 2014

According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.