• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long-term Prediction

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Prediction of the DO concentration using the machine learning algorithm: case study in Oncheoncheon, Republic of Korea

  • Lim, Heesung;An, Hyunuk;Choi, Eunhyuk;Kim, Yeonsu
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.1029-1037
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    • 2020
  • The machine learning algorithm has been widely used in water-related fields such as water resources, water management, hydrology, atmospheric science, water quality, water level prediction, weather forecasting, water discharge prediction, water quality forecasting, etc. However, water quality prediction studies based on the machine learning algorithm are limited compared to other water-related applications because of the limited water quality data. Most of the previous water quality prediction studies have predicted monthly water quality, which is useful information but not enough from a practical aspect. In this study, we predicted the dissolved oxygen (DO) using recurrent neural network with long short-term memory model recurrent neural network long-short term memory (RNN-LSTM) algorithms with hourly- and daily-datasets. Bugok Bridge in Oncheoncheon, located in Busan, where the data was collected in real time, was selected as the target for the DO prediction. The 10-month (temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity) data were used as time prediction inputs, and the 5-year (temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and rainfall) data were used as the daily forecast inputs. Missing data were filled by linear interpolation. The prediction model was coded based on TensorFlow, an open-source library developed by Google. The performance of the RNN-LSTM algorithm for the hourly- or daily-based water quality prediction was tested and analyzed. Research results showed that the hourly data for the water quality is useful for machine learning, and the RNN-LSTM algorithm has potential to be used for hourly- or daily-based water quality forecasting.

Corrosion Induced Long Term Crack Width Prediction for Structural Concrete Members (철근콘크리트 부재에서 철근 부식을 고려한 장기 균열폭 예측)

  • Lee, Gi-Yeol;Yang, Jun-Ho;Chung, Won-Yong;Rho, Sam-Young;Kim, Dae-Joong;Kim, Woo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.199-200
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    • 2009
  • This research developed a long-term crack width prediction model based on bond characteristics that considered steel corrosion, concrete shrinkage and creep in cracking stabilized structural concrete members.

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Settlement Characteristics of Nanji -Island Refuse Landfill (난지도 쓰레기 매립지의 침하 특성)

  • 박현일;라일웅
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 1997
  • It has been a growing concern how to use Nanji-Island landfill and other refuse landfills located around metropolitan areas. In this paper, settlement characteristics of Nanji -Island landfill were studied by analyzing the data collected over the period of two years. The settlement characteristics were similar to the analyzed settlement characteristics of 24 refuse landfills in the United States. The model proposed by Bjarngard and Edger(1990) model is considered to be suitable for the long-term prediction of Wnil -Island landfill. The ten-year -period prediction value of Bjarngard and Edger (1990) model is considerably different from that of Power Creep Model. If existing settlement models used for long-term prediction of the settlement characteristics of landfill are not analyzed thoroughly there remains the possibility of including considerable prediction errors.

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Prediction of Wind Power Generation using Deep Learnning (딥러닝을 이용한 풍력 발전량 예측)

  • Choi, Jeong-Gon;Choi, Hyo-Sang
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.329-338
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    • 2021
  • This study predicts the amount of wind power generation for rational operation plan of wind power generation and capacity calculation of ESS. For forecasting, we present a method of predicting wind power generation by combining a physical approach and a statistical approach. The factors of wind power generation are analyzed and variables are selected. By collecting historical data of the selected variables, the amount of wind power generation is predicted using deep learning. The model used is a hybrid model that combines a bidirectional long short term memory (LSTM) and a convolution neural network (CNN) algorithm. To compare the prediction performance, this model is compared with the model and the error which consist of the MLP(:Multi Layer Perceptron) algorithm, The results is presented to evaluate the prediction performance.

Prediction of DO Concentration in Nakdong River Estuary through Case Study Based on Long Short Term Memory Model (Long Short Term Memory 모델 기반 Case Study를 통한 낙동강 하구역의 용존산소농도 예측)

  • Park, Seongsik;Kim, Kyunghoi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.238-245
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    • 2021
  • In this study, we carried out case study to predict dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration of Nakdong river estuary with LSTM model. we aimed to figure out a optimal model condition and appropriate predictor for prediction in dissolved oxygen concentration with model parameter and predictor as cases. Model parameter case study results showed that Epoch = 300 and Sequence length = 1 showed higher accuracy than other conditions. In predictor case study, it was highest accuracy where DO and Temperature were used as a predictor, it was caused by high correlation between DO concentration and Temperature. From above results, we figured out an appropriate model condition and predictor for prediction in DO concentration of Nakdong river estuary.

LSTM-based aerodynamic force modeling for unsteady flows around structures

  • Shijie Liu;Zhen Zhang;Xue Zhou;Qingkuan Liu
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.147-160
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    • 2024
  • The aerodynamic force is a significant component that influences the stability and safety of structures. It has unstable properties and depends on computer precision, making its long-term prediction challenging. Accurately estimating the aerodynamic traits of structures is critical for structural design and vibration control. This paper establishes an unsteady aerodynamic time series prediction model using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. The unsteady aerodynamic force under varied Reynolds number and angles of attack is predicted by the LSTM model. The input of the model is the aerodynamic coefficients of the 1 to n sample points and output is the aerodynamic coefficients of the n+1 sample point. The model is predicted by interpolation and extrapolation utilizing Unsteady Reynolds-average Navier-Stokes (URANS) simulation data of flow around a circular cylinder, square cylinder and airfoil. The results illustrate that the trajectories of the LSTM prediction results and URANS outcomes are largely consistent with time. The mean relative error between the forecast results and the original results is less than 6%. Therefore, our technique has a prospective application in unsteady aerodynamic force prediction of structures and can give technical assistance for engineering applications.

Forecasting Fish Import Using Deep Learning: A Comprehensive Analysis of Two Different Fish Varieties in South Korea

  • Abhishek Chaudhary;Sunoh Choi
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.134-144
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    • 2023
  • Nowadays, Deep Learning (DL) technology is being used in several government departments. South Korea imports a lot of seafood. If the demand for fishery products is not accurately predicted, then there will be a shortage of fishery products and the price of the fishery product may rise sharply. So, South Korea's Ministry of Ocean and Fisheries is attempting to accurately predict seafood imports using deep learning. This paper introduces the solution for the fish import prediction in South Korea using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method. It was found that there was a huge gap between the sum of consumption and export against the sum of production especially in the case of two species that are Hairtail and Pollock. An import prediction is suggested in this research to fill the gap with some advanced Deep Learning methods. This research focuses on import prediction using Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning methods to predict the import amount more precisely. For the prediction, two Deep Learning methods were chosen which are Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Moreover, the Machine Learning method was also selected for the comparison between the DL and ML. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was selected for the error measurement which shows the difference between the predicted and actual values. The results obtained were compared with the average RMSE scores and in terms of percentage. It was found that the LSTM has the lowest RMSE score which showed the prediction with higher accuracy. Meanwhile, ML's RMSE score was higher which shows lower accuracy in prediction. Moreover, Google Trend Search data was used as a new feature to find its impact on prediction outcomes. It was found that it had a positive impact on results as the RMSE values were lowered, increasing the accuracy of the prediction.

Multivariate Congestion Prediction using Stacked LSTM Autoencoder based Bidirectional LSTM Model

  • Vijayalakshmi, B;Thanga, Ramya S;Ramar, K
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.216-238
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    • 2023
  • In intelligent transportation systems, traffic management is an important task. The accurate forecasting of traffic characteristics like flow, congestion, and density is still active research because of the non-linear nature and uncertainty of the spatiotemporal data. Inclement weather, such as rain and snow, and other special events such as holidays, accidents, and road closures have a significant impact on driving and the average speed of vehicles on the road, which lowers traffic capacity and causes congestion in a widespread manner. This work designs a model for multivariate short-term traffic congestion prediction using SLSTM_AE-BiLSTM. The proposed design consists of a Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory(BiLSTM) network to predict traffic flow value and a Convolutional Neural network (CNN) model for detecting the congestion status. This model uses spatial static temporal dynamic data. The stacked Long Short Term Memory Autoencoder (SLSTM AE) is used to encode the weather features into a reduced and more informative feature space. BiLSTM model is used to capture the features from the past and present traffic data simultaneously and also to identify the long-term dependencies. It uses the traffic data and encoded weather data to perform the traffic flow prediction. The CNN model is used to predict the recurring congestion status based on the predicted traffic flow value at a particular urban traffic network. In this work, a publicly available Caltrans PEMS dataset with traffic parameters is used. The proposed model generates the congestion prediction with an accuracy rate of 92.74% which is slightly better when compared with other deep learning models for congestion prediction.

Real-time SCR-HP(Selective catalytic reduction - high pressure) valve temperature collection and failure prediction using ARIMA (ARIMA를 활용한 실시간 SCR-HP 밸브 온도 수집 및 고장 예측)

  • Lee, Suhwan;Hong, Hyeonji;Park, Jisoo;Yeom, Eunseop
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Visualization
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.62-67
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    • 2021
  • Selective catalytic reduction(SCR) is an exhaust gas reduction device to remove nitro oxides (NOx). SCR operation of ship can be controlled through valves for minimizing economic loss from SCR. Valve in SCR-high pressure (HP) system is directly connected to engine exhaust and operates in high temperature and high pressure. Long-term thermal deformation induced by engine heat weakens the sealing of the valve, which can lead to unexpected failures during ship sailing. In order to prevent the unexpected failures due to long-term valve thermal deformation, a failure prediction system using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was proposed. Based on the heating experiment, virtual data mimicking temperature range around the SCR-HP valve were produced. By detecting abnormal temperature rise and fall based on the short-term ARIMA prediction, an algorithm determines whether present temperature data is required for failure prediction. The signal processed by the data collection algorithm was interpolated for the failure prediction. By comparing mean average error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE), ARIMA model and suitable prediction instant were determined.

Comparative Analysis of PM10 Prediction Performance between Neural Network Models

  • Jung, Yong-Jin;Oh, Chang-Heon
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.241-247
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    • 2021
  • Particulate matter has emerged as a serious global problem, necessitating highly reliable information on the matter. Therefore, various algorithms have been used in studies to predict particulate matter. In this study, we compared the prediction performance of neural network models that have been actively studied for particulate matter prediction. Among the neural network algorithms, a deep neural network (DNN), a recurrent neural network, and long short-term memory were used to design the optimal prediction model using a hyper-parameter search. In the comparative analysis of the prediction performance of each model, the DNN model showed a lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the other algorithms in the performance comparison using the RMSE and the level of accuracy as metrics for evaluation. The stability of the recurrent neural network was slightly lower than that of the other algorithms, although the accuracy was higher.