• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long Term Runoff

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A study on estimation of lowflow indices in ungauged basin using multiple regression (다중회귀분석을 이용한 미계측 유역의 갈수지수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Ga Kyun;Jeung, Se Jin;Kim, Byung Sik;Chae, Soo Kwon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.12
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    • pp.1193-1201
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to develop a regression model that estimates a low-flow index that can be applied to ungauged basins. A total of 30 midsized basins in South Korea use long-term runoff data provided by the National Integrated Water Management System (NIWMS) to calculate average low-flow, average minimum streamflow, and low-flow index duration and frequency. This information is used in the correlation analysis with 18 basin factors and 3 climate change factors to identify the basin area, average basin altitude, average basin slope, water system density, runoff curve number, annual evapotranspiration, and annual precipitation in the low-flow index regression model. This study evaluates the model's accuracy by using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) for 10 ungauged, verified basins and compares them with the previous model's low-flow calculations to determine the effectiveness of the newly developed model. Comparative analysis indicates that the new regression model produces average low-flow, attributed to the consideration of varied basin and hydrologic factors during the new model's development.

The Analysis of Future Land Use Change Impact on Hydrology and Water Quality Using SWAT Model (SWAT 모형을 이용한 미래 토지이용변화가 수문 - 수질에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Park, Jong-Yoon;Lee, Mi Seon;Lee, Yong Jun;Kim, Seong Joon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.2B
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    • pp.187-197
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    • 2008
  • This study is to assess the impact of future land use change on hydrology and water quality in Gyungan-cheon watershed ($255.44km^2$) using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. Using the 5 past Landsat TM (1987, 1991, 1996, 2004) and $ETM^+$ (2001) satellite images, time series of land use map were prepared, and the future land uses (2030, 2060, 2090) were predicted using CA-Markov technique. The 4 years streamflow and water quality data (SS, T-N, T-P) and DEM (Digital Elevation Model), stream network, and soil information (1:25,000) were prepared. The model was calibrated for 2 years (1999 and 2000), and verified for 2 years (2001 and 2002) with averaged Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency of 0.59 for streamflow and determination coefficient of 0.88, 0.72, 0.68 for Sediment, T-N (Total Nitrogen), T-P (Total Phosphorous) respectively. The 2030, 2060 and 2090 future prediction based on 2004 values showed that the total runoff increased 1.4%, 2.0% and 2.7% for 0.6, 0.8 and 1.1 increase of watershed averaged CN value. For the future Sediment, T-N and T-P based on 2004 values, 51.4%, 5.0% and 11.7% increase in 2030, 70.5%, 8.5% and 16.7% increase in 2060, and 74.9%, 10.9% and 19.9% increase in 2090.

Development of Daily Rainfall Simulation Model Based on Homogeneous Hidden Markov Chain (동질성 Hidden Markov Chain 모형을 이용한 일강수량 모의기법 개발)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae Jeong;Hwang, Seok-Hwan;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.1861-1870
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    • 2013
  • A climate change-driven increased hydrological variability has been widely acknowledged over the past decades. In this regards, rainfall simulation techniques are being applied in many countries to consider the increased variability. This study proposed a Homogeneous Hidden Markov Chain(HMM) designed to recognize rather complex patterns of rainfall with discrete hidden states and underlying distribution characteristics via mixture probability density function. The proposed approach was applied to Seoul and Jeonju station to verify model's performance. Statistical moments(e.g. mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis) derived by daily and seasonal rainfall were compared with observation. It was found that the proposed HMM showed better performance in terms of reproducing underlying distribution characteristics. Especially, the HMM was much better than the existing Markov Chain model in reproducing extremes. In this regard, the proposed HMM could be used to evaluate a long-term runoff and design flood as inputs.

Estimation of Average Terrestrial Water Storage Changes in the Korean Peninsula Using GRACE Satellite Gravity Data (GRACE 위성 중력자료를 활용한 한반도의 평균 수자원변화량 산정)

  • Lee, Sang-Il;Kim, Joon-Soo;Lee, Sang-Ki
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.8
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    • pp.805-814
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    • 2012
  • Most hydrologic data are obtained by ground observations. New observation methods are needed for some regions to overcome difficulties in accessibility and durability of long-term observation. In 2002, NASA launched twin satellites named GRACE which were designed to measure the gravitational field of the earth. Using the GRACE monthly gravity level-2 data, we calculated terrestrial water storage change (TWSC) of the Korean peninsula in various spatial smoothing radii (0 km, 300 km, 500 km). For the validation of GRACE-based TWSC, we compared it with land-based TWSC which was obtained using the ground observation data: precipitation and evaporation from WAMIS, and runoff from GLDAS. According to the mean square-error test, GRACE-based TWSC best fits the land-based one at 500 km smoothing radius. The variation of the terrestrial water storage in the Korean peninsula turned out to be 0.986 cm/month, which means that appropriate measures should be prepared for sustainable water resources management.

Eco-Hydrologic Assessment of Maintenance Water Supply on Oncheon Stream (온천천 유지용수 공급에 따른 생태수문환경 변화분석)

  • Jang, Ju-Hyoung;Kim, Sang-Dan;Sung, Ki-June;Shin, Hyun-Suk
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.16 no.8
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    • pp.973-983
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    • 2007
  • The eco-hydrologic effects of maintenance water supply on Oncheon stream are studied using hydrologic, hydraulic and ecologic models. SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) is used for long-term simulation of runoff quantity and water quality from Oncheon stream watershed. Using the output hydrologic variables from SWMM, HEC-RAS (River Analysis System) is then used to simulate the hydraulics of water flow through Oncheon stream channels. Such hydrologic, hydraulic and water quality output variables from SWMM and HEC-RAS are served as input data to execute PHABSIM (Physical Habitat Simulation) for the purpose of predicting the micro-habitat conditions in rivers as a function of stream flow and the relative suitability of those conditions to aquatic life. It is observed from the PHABSIM results that the weighted usable area for target fishes has the maximum value at $2m^3/s$ of instream flow. However, mid and down stream areas that have concrete river bed and covered region are unsuitable for fish habitat regardless of instream flow increment. The simulation results indicate that the simple maintenance water supply is limited in its effect to improve the ecological environment in Oncheon stream. Therefore, it is imperative to improve water quality and to recover habitat conditions simultaneously.

Characteristics of Non-point Pollution Discharge on Stormwater Runoff from Lake Doam Watershed (도암호 유역의 강우시 비점오염물질 유출 특성)

  • Kwak, Sung-Jin;Bhattrai, Bal Dev;Kim, Eun-Jung;Lee, Chang-Keun;Lee, Hyeong-Jin;Heo, Woo-Myung
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.62-71
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    • 2012
  • Lake Doam watershed was surveyed to evaluate non-point source discharge characteristics and discharge load including several water quality parameters in Song Stream from July 2009 to July 2011. Concentrations of water pollutants were high during the rainfall period, especially, SS, TP and COD showed increasing tendencies toward cumulative water discharge but TN did not show much difference. SS, TP and COD had an initial flush effect of over 50 mm rainfall event but there was no clear tendency for rainfalls below that level. Event mean concentration (EMC) regarding the rainy and dry period showed large differences. Especially rainy season EMC (SS, TP, COD) demonstrated an increasingly high tendency. EMCs of COD, SS, TN and TP measured for twelve rain events were as high as 26.1, 866.0, 4.68 and 0.605 mg $L^{-1}$, respectively. COD, SS, TN and TP loadings from the highland agricultural region of the Song Stream watershed were 34,263, 1,250,254, 2,673 and 933 kg $yr^{-1}\;km^{-2}$, respectively, which were relatively higher than the results of other stream systems. Therefore, it is strongly recommended that long-term monitoring and non-point pollution reduction programs for the highland agricultural area to continue. Furthermore, this non-point source pollution loading research acquired from the highland agricultural area could be the base for reassessment.

Stability Assessment on the Final Pit Slope in S Limestone Mine (S 석회석광산에서의 최종 잔벽사면의 안정성 평가)

  • Sun, Woo-Choon;Lee, Yun-Su;Kim, Hyun-Woo;Lee, Byung-Joo
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.99-109
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    • 2013
  • The slopes of open-pit mine are typically designed without considering the reinforcement and support method due to the economical efficiency. However, the long-term stability of final pit slope is needed in some case, therefore the appropriate measures that can improve the stability are required. In this study, the field survey and laboratory test were carried out in S limestone mine. The stability assessment of final pit slope was performed through the stereographic projection method, SMR, and numerical analysis. And countermeasures for stabilization were proposed. The results of analysis show that full scale of slope failure is not expected but the failures of bench slope scale are likely to occur. In oder to increase the stability of bench slope, we suggested the remedial methods as follows: excavating the final pit slope by pre-splitting blasting, placing the wide berm in the intermediate bench slope and installing the horizontal drainage hole in the place of local ground water runoff.

Long-term Simulation and Uncertainty Quantification of Water Temperature in Soyanggang Reservoir due to Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 소양호의 수온 장기 모의 및 불확실성 정량화)

  • Yun, Yeojeong;Park, Hyungseok;Chung, Sewoong;Kim, Yongda;Ohn, Ilsang;Lee, Seoro
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.14-28
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    • 2020
  • Future climate change may affect the hydro-thermal and biogeochemical characteristics of dam reservoirs, the most important water resources in Korea. Thus, scientific projection of the impact of climate change on the reservoir environment, factoring uncertainties, is crucial for sustainable water use. The purpose of this study was to predict the future water temperature and stratification structure of the Soyanggang Reservoir in response to a total of 42 scenarios, combining two climate scenarios, seven GCM models, one surface runoff model, and three wind scenarios of hydrodynamic model, and to quantify the uncertainty of each modeling step and scenario. Although there are differences depending on the scenarios, the annual reservoir water temperature tended to rise steadily. In the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the upper water temperature is expected to rise by 0.029 ℃ (±0.012)/year and 0.048 ℃ (±0.014)/year, respectively. These rise rates are correspond to 88.1 % and 85.7 % of the air temperature rise rate. Meanwhile, the lower water temperature is expected to rise by 0.016 ℃ (±0.009)/year and 0.027 ℃ (±0.010)/year, respectively, which is approximately 48.6 % and 46.3 % of the air temperature rise rate. Additionally, as the water temperatures rises, the stratification strength of the reservoir is expected to be stronger, and the number of days when the temperature difference between the upper and lower layers exceeds 5 ℃ increases in the future. As a result of uncertainty quantification, the uncertainty of the GCM models showed the highest contribution with 55.8 %, followed by 30.8 % RCP scenario, and 12.8 % W2 model.

Optimum Size Analysis for Dam Rehabilitation Using Reliability Analysis (신뢰성 분석을 통한 기존 댐 재개발의 적정규모 결정의 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Moon, Young-Il;Choi, Byung-Gyu;Yoon, Yong-Nam
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.97-110
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents a procedure of evaluation of reservoir capacity for additional water storage for dam rehabilitation. One of the techniques on the extension of rainfall has been developed, and the daily stream flows were simulated by the NWS-PC long-term rainfall-runoff model with the input of the extended daily rainfall which was stochastically generated by the nonhomogeneous markov chain model. We peformed a reliability analysis to Guisan dam about the optimal capacity of dam rehabilitation by using performance criteria that Hashimoto et al. (1982) presented. We estimated that the most suitable water level is approximately 155EL.M. suggested that this method can use supplemental methods to estimate optimum dam scale.

Stochastic Continuous Storage Function Model with Ensemble Kalman Filtering (II) : Application and Verification (앙상블 칼만필터를 연계한 추계학적 연속형 저류함수모형 (II) : - 적용 및 검증 -)

  • Lee, Byong-Ju;Bae, Deg-Hyo;Shamir, Eylon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.11
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    • pp.963-972
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this study is to evaluate an application of stochastic continuous storage function model with ensemble Kalman filter technique. The case study is performed at the upstream basin of Jibo streamflow gauge including Andong and Imha dam. Test period is for the rainy season during 2006 and 2007. Long term runoff analysis is feasible in the case of using deterministic model. Ensemble members for input data and parameters are generated using Monte Carlo simulation for the purpose of applying ensemble Kalman filter technique. The cumulative absolute errors of stochastic model to the deterministic one are improved for the amount of 17.5 %, 18.3 % and more than 40.0 % for Andong dam, Imha dam and Jibo station, respectively. The results indicate that the stochastic model improves the accuracy of the simulated discharge considerably.