• 제목/요약/키워드: Logistic Model

검색결과 1,927건 처리시간 0.029초

대표농도경로 (RCP) 시나리오에 따른 회야강 유역의 미래 유출 및 유사 변화 분석 (Impact of IPCC RCP Scenarios on Streamflow and Sediment in the Hoeya River Basin)

  • 황창수;최철웅;최지선
    • 대한공간정보학회지
    • /
    • 제22권3호
    • /
    • pp.11-19
    • /
    • 2014
  • 본 연구는 미래 기후변화 및 토지피복변화가 유역 내 유출량과 유사량의 거동에 가져올 영향을 분석하는데 목적이 있다. 기상자료는 IPCC 5차 평가보고서를 위해 새롭게 논의된 RCP 시나리오 중 서로 상반되는 4.5 및 8.5 시나리오의 기후전망 (2011~2100년) 이 사용되었으며, 토지피복지도는 RCP 4.5 및 8.5 시나리오의 사회 경제 스토리라인과 로지스틱 회귀모형 (LR)을 이용하여 개발 된 모델에 의해 구축되었다. 기후변화만 고려한 경우, 토지피복변화만 고려한 경우, 기후변화 및 토지피복변화 모두 고려한 경우의 세 가지 시나리오를 설정하고, 각 시나리오에 따른 유출량 및 유사량을 모의한 결과 계절적으로 매우 명확한 변화를 나타내었다. 기후변화는 봄과 겨울에 유출량을 증가시키고 여름과 가을에 유출량을 감소시키는 것으로 나타났으며, 유사량 역시 유출량과 동일한 변화의 양상을 보였다. 토지피복변화는 유출량을 증가시키는 반면 유사량은 감소시키며, 이는 도시화로 인한 불투수 면적의 증가에 의한 것으로 판단된다. 토지피복변화는 기후변화에 비해 유출량에 적은 영향을 끼치나, 기후변화에 의해 초래된 유출량 문제를 더욱 극대화 시킬 수 있다. 따라서 지속적인 수자원 관리를 위하여 기후변화의 잠재적 영향을 파악하고, 토지피복변화에 따른 적절한 수자원 대응 정책 마련이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

노인의 불명확한 사망원인진단 관련요인 분석과 개선방안 (Analysis and Improving ways of Factors affecting the Ill-defined Causes of Death of the Aged in Korea)

  • 박상희;이태용
    • 보건행정학회지
    • /
    • 제21권2호
    • /
    • pp.329-348
    • /
    • 2011
  • This research analyzed 168,010 cases of death of the aged over 65 from 244,867cases of death excluding 7 unknown age cases from 244,874 all age cases of death by using the death data of the National Statistical Office for 2007 to figure out factors affecting the quality of causes of death statistics of the aged and to suggest the ways of improving the quality of death statistics of the aged in korea. This research tried to derive factors affecting ill-defined cause of death category in acordance with WHO's guidelines and to find causes of lowering the accuracy of causes of death statistics of the aged. This research identified the problems of causes of death statistics of the aged by using both demographic characteristics such as sex, age, marital status, educational attainment, residential region, region size and factors of death items as independent variable to find causes of ill-defined cause of death of the aged. Logistic regression analysis was executed to calculate the hazard ratio about the ill-defined causes of death of the aged and multiple regression analysis was conducted to derive factors affecting the ill-defined cause of death by regional groups through using these independent variables such as the component ratio of over age 65, female death rates, doctors insitutions rate, medical institutions rate, attaching rates of death certificate by neighborhood. As a results of this research, R-code was the highest of ill-defined causes of death, accounting for 82.1%, and senility death(R54) of R-code was the highest, accounting for 91.2%. through subdivided order distribution of the ill-defined causes of death of the aged. As ill-defined causes of death by regional groups, attaching rates of death certificate by neighborhood was the most important factor(p<0.05) and also showed regression model's description with 83.8% ($R^2$=83.8%). Furthermore, Jeon-nam was the highest in the regional groups and these regions such as Je-ju, Jeon-buk, Chung-nam were not only attaching the death certificate by neighborhood but also were high at the rate of ill-defined causes of death. Therefore, this research found that both reconsideration about death certificate by neighborhood and education for doctors who write death certificate were needed the most.

의사들의 유헬스케어 서비스에 대한 인식과 사용의도 (Doctors' Perception and Intention of the U-healthcare Service)

  • 이윤경;박지윤;노미정;왕보람;최인영
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
    • /
    • 제12권2호
    • /
    • pp.349-357
    • /
    • 2012
  • 유헬스케어 서비스는 오랫동안 만성질환 관리에 대한 효과적인 대안으로 부각되고 있으나 아직까지 활성화되지 못하고 있다. 본 연구는 유헬스케어 서비스 도입에 있어 중요 의사결정자인 의사들의 유헬스케어 서비스에 대한 인식과 사용의도에 영향을 주는 요인에 대해 고찰해 보고자 한다. 이를 위해 유헬스케어 서비스 제공자인 의사들을 대상으로 설문조사를 실시하여 유헬스케어 서비스 사용의도에 따른 집단별 특성을 비교하고, 사용의도에 영향을 주는 요인을 고찰하기 위해 로지스틱 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 분석 결과 의사들의 유헬스케어 서비스 사용경험은 16.0%로 낮으나 사용의도는 70.1%로 높게 나타났다. 또한 유헬스케어 서비스 적용은 만성질환과 예방분야가 적절하다고 응답하였으며, 적용이 적합한 질환은 당뇨병과 고혈압등의 순으로 나타났다. 의사 특성에 따른 사용의도의 차이에 관한 로지스틱 분석 결과 유헬스케어 서비스 사용의도는 대학병원에 비해 비대학병원 의사들의 사용의도가 3.7배 높았다. 본 연구는 유헬스케어 서비스에 대한 의사들의 인식 그리고 사용의도에 대한 집단 간 차이를 파악함으로써 유헬스케어 서비스의 활성화와 효과적인 비즈니스 모델 개발에 기여할 것이다.

An Epidemiological Study for Desirable Health Habits Affecting Workers' Health Status

  • Lee, Myung-Sun
    • 보건교육건강증진학회지
    • /
    • 제19권4호
    • /
    • pp.1-18
    • /
    • 2002
  • This study identified the health habits affecting health status of industrial workers. Data was collected from 965 workers in 58 companies at Buchon. The research conducted a self-administered questionnaire survey and obtained the workers' health examination records. The results were as follows: 1. Among 965 respondents, men were 82.4%, women were 17.6%, 44.5% were of the 30${\sim}$40 age group, the married were 67.4%, the single were 30.8%, high school graduates were 81.1% and 38.8% were of people who worked between 1 and 5 years 2. As far as the seven health habits, current smokers were 52.8%, people who regularly exercise was 28.5%, 7${\sim}$8 hour of sleep, on the average were 71.4%, people eating breakfast nearly every day were 8.8%, and people eating between meals almost every day were 46.5%. Heavy drinkers who drink 3${\sim}$4 times or more per week were 14.2%, 1${\sim}$2 times per week were 32.6% and the obese were 9.3%. 3, Health status of A and B, estimated by doctors in the health examination were 80.8% and C, D1, D2, the unhealthy were 19.2%. For men, those who reported more than women in unhealthy groups and the results regarding health status reflects those for gender, educational level and age. That is to say that, lower educational level group and over 30 years of age group perceive their health to be worse than the higher educational level and under 30 age group. And these differences were statistically significant. 4. The relationship between health habits and health status were examined based on the odds ratio. Current smokers had a consistently worse health status than a non smokers with a 1.98 odds ratio. The workers who reported eating breakfast rarely or never were more associated with the unhealthy group than the regular breakfast eating group with a 2.96 odds ratio. One or more drink per week had a worse health status than a never or a little drinker with a 1.56 odds ratio. 5. General health habit score and duration of work were selected as significant factors influencing health status from the result of logistic regression analysis. According to the results of this model, the odds ratio of good health status was 2.08 for good health habit score, 1.63 for workers who worked five years or more duration at work. In summary, good health habits were associated with good health status. In particular, the workers who had 5 or more desirable health habits had a significantly better health status than the workers who had 4 or less than 4 good health habits. Therefore, in order to provide the health promotion programs to workers it is necessary to organize clear health management plans based on effective health education and health service perspective. If further research examines health habits and health status using a prospective study design, More precise findings for health promotion program development in the worksite and worksite health management planning.

Validation of a New Design of Tellurium Dioxide-Irradiated Target

  • Fllaoui, Aziz;Ghamad, Younes;Zoubir, Brahim;Ayaz, Zinel Abidine;Morabiti, Aissam El;Amayoud, Hafid;Chakir, El Mahjoub
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • 제48권5호
    • /
    • pp.1273-1279
    • /
    • 2016
  • Production of iodine-131 by neutron activation of tellurium in tellurium dioxide ($TeO_2$) material requires a target that meets the safety requirements. In a radiopharmaceutical production unit, a new lid for a can was designed, which permits tight sealing of the target by using tungsten inert gaswelding. The leakage rate of all prepared targets was assessed using a helium mass spectrometer. The accepted leakage rate is ${\leq}10^{-4}mbr.L/s$, according to the approved safety report related to iodine-131 production in the TRIGA Mark II research reactor (TRIGA: Training, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics). To confirm the resistance of the new design to the irradiation conditions in the TRIGA Mark II research reactor's central thimble, a study of heat effect on the sealed targets for 7 hours in an oven was conducted and the leakage rates were evaluated. The results show that the tightness of the targets is ensured up to $600^{\circ}C$ with the appearance of deformations on lids beyond $450^{\circ}C$. The study of heat transfer through the target was conducted by adopting a one-dimensional approximation, under consideration of the three transfer modes-convection, conduction, and radiation. The quantities of heat generated by gamma and neutron heating were calculated by a validated computational model for the neutronic simulation of the TRIGA Mark II research reactor using the Monte Carlo N-Particle transport code. Using the heat transfer equations according to the three modes of heat transfer, the thermal study of I-131 production by irradiation of the target in the central thimble showed that the temperatures of materials do not exceed the corresponding melting points. To validate this new design, several targets have been irradiated in the central thimble according to a preplanned irradiation program, going from4 hours of irradiation at a power level of 0.5MWup to 35 hours (7 h/d for 5 days a week) at 1.5MW. The results showthat the irradiated targets are tight because no iodine-131 was released in the atmosphere of the reactor building and in the reactor cooling water of the primary circuit.

일부 병원 내원 환자의 금연에 관한 건강행위 동기요소 (Health Behavior Motivators about Quit-Smoking in Some Outpatients of University Hospitals)

  • 궁화수;유승미;황수정
    • 치위생과학회지
    • /
    • 제13권3호
    • /
    • pp.314-320
    • /
    • 2013
  • 본 연구는 한림대학교 성심병원과 충남대학교 병원 심혈관센터를 방문한 환자 중 본 연구에 대해 자발적으로 동의한 40대 이상 300명을 대상으로 하여 흡연 여부와 관련된 동기요소를 파악하고자 설문조사를 실시하고 분석하였다. 1. 흡연자율은 성별, 최종학력, 월수입에 따라 유의한 차이가 있었으며, 남자, 고등학교 졸업자, 월수입 200만원대인 대상자의 흡연율이 높았다. 2. 흡연군은 비흡연군이나 금연군에 비해 건강행위에 대한 지각된 유익성은 유의하게 낮고(p=0.021) 지각된 장애성은 더 높았다(p<0.001). 흡연군은 건강행위에 있어서는 생활방식, 건강습관 등을 실천하지 않으며(p<0.001), 변화단계에서는 비흡연군과 금연군이 행동단계 이상이나 흡연군은 준비단계에 위치하였다(p<0.001). 3. 흡연 여부에 따라 주관적 구강건강인식, 치은출혈 여부, 1일 잇솔질 횟수, 치과방문은 차이가 나지 않았다. 4. 건강행위에 대한 지각된 장애가 평균 미만인 군이 OR이 0.378 (p=0.039)이고 변화단계가 평균 미만인 군은 OR이 4.746 (p=0.002)이었다. 남성이 흡연할 OR은 12.743 (p<0.001)이었고, 경제상태에서는 월수입이 200만원대인 군이 300만원 이상인 군에 비해 OR이 3.271 (p=0.045)이었다. 따라서, 금연에 대한 동기요소를 변화시키기 위해 건강행위에 대한 유익성, 장애성, 실천 등을 변화시킬 수 있는 금연교육프로그램이 필요하며 구강보건관련인력도 흡연과 연관된 구강건강 관리뿐 아니라 동기요소를 변화시킬 수 있는 금연 유도 프로그램을 개발하고 이용해야 할 것이다.

양분선택형 조건부가치측정(CV) 자료의 추정방법에 따른 지불의사금액의 변동성 연구 (Study on Variability of WTP Estimates by the Estimation Methods using Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Data)

  • 신영철
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
    • /
    • 제25권1호
    • /
    • pp.1-25
    • /
    • 2016
  • 본 연구는 조기사망 위험 감소를 위한 지불의사금액에 대한 양분선택형 조건부가치측정(CV) 자료를 이용하여, 자의적인 모수적 분포(즉, 정규분포, 로지스틱분포, 로그정규분포, 지수분포)를 가정하여 도출하는 지불의사금액 대푯값(즉, 평균 내지 중앙값)의 변동성을 비교 검토하였다. 이를 위해 특정 모수적 분포라는 제약을 갖지 않는 Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법(nonparametric estimation method)에 의한 결과를 함께 비교 검토하면, 정책의사결정에서는 인정되기 어려운 수준의 WTP 대푯값들의 변동성이 확인되었다. 한편 Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법에 의한 WTP의 대푯값은 기본적으로 자의적 모수적 분포 가정에 의한 일종의 오지정 편의를 회피할 수 있다. 또한 Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법으로는 단일양분선택형 CV 자료이든 이중양분선택형 CV 자료이든 거의 유사한 추정치를 도출하고, 모수적 분포를 가정한 추정방법으로는 통계적으로 유의한 추정치를 얻지 못하는 상황에서도 통계적으로 유의한 추정치를 얻을 수 있는 강건성(robustness)을 보여주었다. 그러므로 양분선택형 CV 자료에서 특정 모수적 분포의 적합성을 판단하기 어려운 상황에서 자의적 모수적 분포의 가정에서 도출한 WTP의 대푯값들이 상당한 변동성을 보인다면, Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법에 의한 WTP의 평균 추정치가 정책의사결정에서 논란의 여지를 회피할 수 있는 비자의적이고 강건한 추정치가 될 수 있음을 확인할 수 있다.

제품 시장 경쟁 및 기업의 사회적 책임 활동 (Product Market Competition and Corporate Social Responsibility Activities)

  • 류혜영;채수준
    • 산경연구논집
    • /
    • 제10권11호
    • /
    • pp.49-56
    • /
    • 2019
  • Purpose: Corporate social responsibility is a self-regulating business model that helps a firm be socially accountable to the public. By practicing corporate social responsibility, firms can be conscious of the kind of impact they are having on all aspects of society, including economic, social, and environmental. Corporate social responsibility activities are not directly linked to increasing corporate performance and corporate value, but rather involve spending expenses. Based on these facts, this study verifies whether the effects of corporate social responsibility activities differ depending on the firm's situation. Research design, data and methodology: This study analyzed the effect of market competition on corporate social responsibility activities using logistic regression analysis on listed companies in the KOSPI and KOSDAQ for fiscal years 2014 through 2016. In this study, market competition was measured using the Herfindahl-Herschman Index(HHI). Higher HHI value can be interpreted as a lower degree of market competition. We also measured corporate social responsibility activities using the KEJI Index published by the Korea Economic Justice Institute (KEJI). If a firm-year is included in the top 200 companies of the KEJI Index, it is classified as a good corporate social responsibility activity firm. Results: We find that companies in less competitive market were not included in the KEJI Index. This result indicates that firms in the market with lower market competition perform less corporate social responsibility activities that incur costs. An additional analysis showed that there was a significant negative relationship between the market competition and the corporate social responsibility activity scores published by the KEJI Index. These result adds robustness to the result of the hypothesis that firms that have a monopolistic place in the market practice passive corporate social responsibility activities. Conclusions: The results show that managers of a firm in the lower market competition have a lower incentive to use limited resources for projects that are not directly related to revenue. The results of this study imply that corporate social responsibility activities vary according to the position of the business. Therefore, this study suggests that market investors should consider the degree of competition in the market when they evaluate corporate social responsibility activities.

인천경제자유구역 국제중재센터 설립 및 운영방안 (A Study on Establishment and Operation of International Arbitration Center within Incheon Free Economic Zone)

  • 김상호
    • 한국중재학회지:중재연구
    • /
    • 제18권1호
    • /
    • pp.121-145
    • /
    • 2008
  • Northeast Asia is increasingly making a transition to distinctive and crucial region in the 21st Century and growing into one of world's top three economic spheres along with the EU and NAFTA. In 2003, Korean government announced the Northeast Asian economic hub country plan as an important agenda. As a means of coping with the changing global environment, Korean government designated Incheon in 2003 as the country's first Free Economic Zone ahead of Busan and Gwangyang Bay in the south of the country because Incheon has a geographical advantage linking North America and Europe with Incheon International Airport and Incheon Seaport. The purpose of this paper is to make research on establishment and operation of an arbitral body entitled ${\ulcorner}International Arbitration Center{\lrcorner}$ (IAC) within Incheon Free Economic Zone(IFEZ). For the purpose of this, the writer in this paper, reviewed the necessity of the IAC's establishment and its legal basis as well as the role and function of the Center. Also, the writer presented plans for how to operate the IAC and how to cooperate with the key arbitral organizations of foreign countries for the settlement promotion of commercial disputes including trade and investment. With development of the IFEZ, world-renowned enterprises will invest in the Incheon economic bloc and conduct economic activities, business operation, marketing, logistics, financing, etc. In this connection, diverse types of commercial disputes are expected to occur between foreign companies entering the IFEZ and Korean firms. In this connection, the Korean Commercial Arbitration Board(KCAB) has been operating its liaison office in the IFEZ since 2004. However, in view of the increasing arbitration demand, the IAC should be set up in the IFEZ in the near future by the positive support of the government in the respect of both administration and finance because the free economic zone-related law provides for the installation of arbitration organization. For the success of the IAC, the Center will have to provide not only good quality of arbitral services that can satisfy arbitration parties but also need to conduct researches and make efforts so that arbitration can be utilized well in the IFEZ. If the IFEZ can provide advantageous business environments to those multinational enterprises intending to the Incheon economic bloc, the IAC will also contribute to the settlement of commercial disputes arising from the Gaeseong Industrial Complex in North Korea in view of the geographical advantage and logistic benefit of the IFEZ. Finally, this paper also suggests a new model for a joint dispute resolution system by the initiative of Korean government and Korean arbitral organizations for the settlement of commercial disputes within Northeast Asia, for which the CAMCA(Commercial Arbitration and Mediation Center for the Americas) of NAFTA can be a good example.

  • PDF

산모 연령과 영아 사망과의 관련성 연구 (Maternal Age and Infant Mortality in Korea)

  • 홍재석
    • 디지털융복합연구
    • /
    • 제14권9호
    • /
    • pp.379-387
    • /
    • 2016
  • 본 연구는 우리나라 출생아 전수(n=617,867)를 대상으로 산모 연령과 영아 사망과의 관련성을 파악하고자 시행하였다. 연구자료는 인구동태통계자료와 영아사망조사자료를 연계하여 사용하였고, 산모 연령에 따른 영아 사망 위험을 파악해 보기 위해 출생아의 성별과 다태 여부, 출생순위, 저체중아 여부, 선천성기형 여부를 보정한 다중 로지스틱 회귀분석을 시행하였다. 여러 혼란요인을 보정한 분석 결과, 25-29세 산모에 비해 20세 미만 산모(Odds ratio [OR], 5.29, 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.51-7.98)와 20-24세 산모(OR, 1.44, 95% CI, 1.23-1.69), 35-39세 산모(OR, 1.28, 95% CI, 1.11-1.46), 40세 이상 산모(OR, 1.94, 95% CI, 1.53-2.45)에서 영아 사망 오즈가 통계적으로 유의하게 높았다. 결론적으로, 이번 연구를 통해 35세 이상 고 연령 산모와 25세 미만의 저 연령 산모에서 영아 사망 위험이 높은 것을 확인할 수 있었고, 이들에서 영아 사망 위험이 높은 이유는 저체중아나 미숙아의 출산이 많기 때문으로 보인다. 산전관리 시 고령 산모의 경우 생물학적인 문제를 극복할 수 있는 관리정책이 만들어져야 할 것으로 보이고, 저 연령 산모의 경우 사회경제적인 부분과 사회적 편견 문제를 해결할 수 있는 관리정책이 만들어져야 할 것으로 보인다.