• Title/Summary/Keyword: Location Uncertainty

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Species Distribution Modeling of Endangered Mammals for Ecosystem Services Valuation - Focused on National Ecosystem Survey Data - (생태계 서비스 가치평가를 위한 멸종위기 포유류의 종분포 연구 - 전국자연환경조사 자료를 중심으로 -)

  • Jeon, Seong Woo;Kim, Jaeuk;Jung, Huicheul;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Kim, Joon-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.111-122
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    • 2014
  • The provided habitat of many services from natural capital is important. But because most ecosystem services tools qualitatively evaluated biodiversity or habitat quality, this study quantitatively analyzed those aspects using the species distribution model (MaxEnt). This study used location point data of the goat(Naemorhedus caudatus), marten(Martes flavigula), leopard cat(Prionailurus bengalensis), flying squirrel(Pteromys volans aluco) and otter(Lutra lutra) from the 3rd National Ecosystem Survey. Input data utilized DEM, landcover classification maps, Forest-types map and digital topographic maps. This study generated the MaxEnt model, randomly setting 70% of the presences as training data, with the remaining 30% used as test data, and ran five cross-validated replicates for each model. The threshold indicating maximum training sensitivity plus specificity was considered as a more robust approach, so this study used it to conduct the distribution into presence(1)-absence(0) predictions and totalled up a value of 5 times for uncertainty reduction. The test data's ROC curve of endangered mammals was as follows: growing down goat(0.896), otter(0.857), flying squirrel(0.738), marten(0.725), and leopard cat(0.629). This study was divided into two groups based on habitat: the first group consisted of the goat, marten, leopard cat and flying squirrel in the forest; and the second group consisted of the otter in the river. More than 60 percent of endangered mammals' distribution probability were 56.9% in the forest and 12.7% in the river. A future study is needed to conduct other species' distribution modeling exclusive of mammals and to develop a collection method of field survey data.

A Study on the P Wave Arrival Time Determination Algorithm of Acoustic Emission (AE) Suitable for P Waves with Low Signal-to-Noise Ratios (낮은 신호 대 잡음비 특성을 지닌 탄성파 신호에 적합한 P파 도달시간 결정 알고리즘 연구)

  • Lee, K.S.;Kim, J.S.;Lee, C.S.;Yoon, C.H.;Choi, J.W.
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.349-358
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    • 2011
  • This paper introduces a new P wave arrival time determination algorithm of acoustic emission (AE) suitable to identify P waves with low signal-to-noise ratio generated in rock masses around the high-level radioactive waste disposal repositories. The algorithms adopted for this paper were amplitude threshold picker, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), two step AIC, and Hinkley criterion. The elastic waves were generated by Pencil Lead Break test on a granite sample, then mixed with white noise to make it difficult to distinguish P wave artificially. The results obtained from amplitude threshold picker, AIC, and Hinkley criterion produced relatively large error due to the low signal-to-noise ratio. On the other hand, two step AIC algorithm provided the correct results regardless of white noise so that the accuracy of source localization was more improved and could be satisfied with the error range.

Symmetrical model based SLAM : M-SLAM (대칭모형 기반 SLAM : M-SLAM)

  • Oh, Jung-Suk;Sim, Kwee-Bo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.463-468
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    • 2010
  • The mobile robot which accomplishes a work in explored region does not know location information of surroundings. Traditionally, simultaneous localization and mapping(SLAM) algorithms solve the localization and mapping problem in explored regions. Among the several SLAM algorithms, the EKF (Extended Kalman Filter) based SLAM is the scheme most widely used. The EKF is the optimal sensor fusion method which has been used for a long time. The odometeric error caused by an encoder can be compensated by an EKF, which fuses different types of sensor data with weights proportional to the uncertainty of each sensor. In many cases the EKF based SLAM requires artificially installed features, which causes difficulty in actual implementation. Moreover, the computational complexity involved in an EKF increases as the number of features increases. And SLAM is a weak point of long operation time. Therefore, this paper presents a symmetrical model based SLAM algorithm(called M-SLAM).

Evaluation of Spatial Distribution of Secondary Compression of Songdo Marine Clay by Probabilistic Method (확률론적 방법을 이용한 인천송도지반 이차압축침하량의 공간적 분포 평가)

  • Kim, Dong-Hee;Bae, Kyung-Doo;Ko, Seong-Kwon;Lee, Woo-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.26 no.9
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 2010
  • Settlement at reclamation area caused by secondary compression should be considered using spatial evaluating method because the thickness of consolidation layer varies at every location. Probabilistic method can be implemented to evaluate uncertainty of spatial distribution of secondary compression. This study spatially evaluated mean and standard deviation of secondary compression in the overall analyzing region using spatial distribution of consolidation thickness estimated by ordinary kriging method and statistical values of soil properties. And then, the area where secondary compression exceeds a design criterion at the specific time was evaluated using probabilistic method. It was observed that the area exceeding the design criterion increased as the variability of $C_{\alpha}/(1+e_o)$ increased or the probabilistic design criterion 0: decreased. It is considered that the probabilistic method can be used for the geotechnical design of soft ground when a probabilistic design criterion is established in the specification.

Evaluation of Spatial Distribution of Consolidation Settlement of Songdo Marine Clay by Probabilistic Method (확률론적 방법에 의한 인천송도지반 압밀침하량의 공간적 분포 평가)

  • Kim, Dong-Hee;Choi, Young-Min;Lee, Woo-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.26 no.9
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    • pp.15-24
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    • 2010
  • Because the thickness and depth of consolidation layer vary at every location, the consolidation settlement and time have to be evaluated spatially. Also, for a rational evaluation of the uncertainty of the spatial distribution of consolidation settlement and time, it is necessary to adopt a probabilistic method. In this study, mean and standard deviation of consolidation settlement and time of whole analysis region are evaluated by using the spatial distribution of consolidation layer which is estimated from ordinary kriging and statistics of soil properties. Using these results and probabilistic method, the area that needs adopting the prefabricated vertical drain as well as raising the ground level for balancing the final design ground level is determined. It is observed that such areas are influenced by the variability of soil properties. The design procedure and method presented in this paper can be used in the decision making process for a geotechnical engineering design.

Safety Assessment of Corrosion-damaged Steel Structure using Imprecise Reliability (불확실 신뢰도 기법을 이용한 부식된 강구조물의 안전도평가)

  • Choi, Hyun Ho;Cho, Hyo Nam;Seo, Jong Won;Sun, Jong Wan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.2A
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    • pp.293-300
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    • 2006
  • There is a high degree of uncertainty in measurements of the thickness or the loss of thickness of corroded elements. Generally the thickness of corroded elements varies from one location of the element to another depending on the degree of corrosion, which makes the safety assessment difficult. Therefore, a procedure for safety assessment of corrosion- damaged steel structures using an imprecise reliability is proposed in this paper. The proposed safety assessment procedure using the imprecise reliability was also applied to a cable-stayed bridge in Korea to demonstrate its effectiveness and applicability. Since there is a large variation in measurements of the thickness of corroded elements, the thickness of corroded elements was considered as the imprecise element. This variation was found to be directly related to the degree of corrosion. Therefore, the variation increases as the degree of corrosion increases. Based on the comparative observations between the conventional reliability and the imprecise reliability, it is suggested that the imprecise reliability analysis derived based on the subjective or statistical judgment of conditional independence could be successfully utilized for the risk or safety assessment of corrosion-damaged structures.

Economic Feasibility Analysis for Introducing Integrated Management System for Supporting Underground Construction (지하구조물건설 현장지원 통합관리시스템 도입을 위한 경제적 타당성 분석)

  • Baek, Hyeon Gi;Jang, Yong Gu;Seo, Jong Won
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.5D
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    • pp.513-522
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    • 2010
  • Underground construction for traffic networks, complexes, and storage facilities has risen as an effective land use plan for dealing with emerging problems such as overcrowded urban cities and traffic jams. This paper performed an economic feasibility analysis of the development of the integrated field management system which provides field workers and managers with 3D-based location tracking and clear communication during underground construction works. To conduct the analysis, processes and problems of field management for underground construction were analyzed and deduction in accidents and field management costs and productivity improvement were estimated as expected benefits. Based on computed benefits and costs, an economic analysis was conducted using Benefit/Cost ratio(B/C), Net Present Value(NPV), and Internal Rate of Return(IRR) and then sensitivity analysis was performed to cope with the uncertainty of assumed variables.

Development of an Economic Evaluation model for Coating System Based on Environmental Conditions of Power Generation Structure (발전구조물의 환경조건을 반영한 도장계 선정 경제성 평가 모델 개발)

  • Kim, In Tae;Lee, Su Young;An, Jin Hee;Kim, Chang Hak
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.77-85
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    • 2020
  • Currently, life-cycle cost analysis methods are introduced to maintain large infrastructure facilities in Korea. However, there are not many cases in which maintenance models are applied that reflect conditions such as the location of a facility and its surroundings. In order to establish an appropriate maintenance strategy, a cost prediction, deterioration model, and a decision model reflecting uncertainty should be established. In this study, an economic analysis model was developed for long-term cost planning and management based on user decisions based on maintenance methods and judgment criteria for painting specifications applied to power generation structures. The performance of the paintwork was assessed through the paint deterioration test for the application of the economic analysis model, and the results of the economic analysis according to the applied paint specifications (Urethan, polysiloxane, fluorine) were verified by applying the proposed economic analysis model. In this study, it is believed that the selection of the repair cycle and evaluation methods applied with the development model rather than the performance of the painting can be expected to be used as basic data for the maintenance cycle, even if it is not limited to the painting.

Calculation of the Wave Height Distribution in the Vicinity of Ulsan waters using the Observed Date of Typhoon Maemi (태풍 ‘매미’ 내습시 관측자료를 이용한 울산 해역의 파고 분포 산출)

  • Kim, Kang-Min;Kim, Jong-Hoon;Ryu, Ha-Sang;Jeong, Weon-Mu
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.479-484
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    • 2007
  • For calculation of wave field for design of coastal and port structures, generally the wind fields from inland observation record or the predicted waves from deep water wave transformation model are being used. However, for the first case, as we should revise the wave data adopting correcting parameters depending on the distance from the coast and location, it is difficult to extract water waves from wind field. Furthermore, for the second case, because of the calculation which executed under very large grid sizes in the wide domain, the simulation(wave transformation) implied uncertainty in the near shore area and shallow region. So it's difficult to obtain exact data from the simulation. Thus, in this study the calculation of wave field on shallow water is accomplished using the observed data of typhoon 'Maemi' in the Korea Eastern South sea. Moreover, for the accuracy of the calculated wave field, we compared and studied the observed data of wave height and direction on the vicinity of the Ulsan waters. It is proved that the results of this study is more accurate than the existing method with showing ${\pm}1.3%$ difference between observed and calculated wave height distribution in Ulsan waters

Predicting Construction Project Cost using Sensitivity Analysis in Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation (SPSS) (확률 통계적 일정 시뮬레이선 - 민감도 분석을 이용한 최종 공사비 예측)

  • Lee Dong-Eun;Park Chan-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.6 no.4 s.26
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    • pp.80-90
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    • 2005
  • Activity durations retain probabilistic and stochastic natures due to diverse factors causing the delay or acceleration of activity completion. These natures make the final project duration to be a random variable. These factors are the major source of financial risk. Extending the Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation system (SPSS) developed in previous research; this research presents a method to estimate how the final project duration behaves when activity durations change randomly. The final project cost is estimated by considering the fluctuation of indirect cost, which occurs due to the delay or acceleration of activity completion, along with direct cost assigned to an activity. The final project cost is estimated by considering how indirect cost behaves when activity duration change. The method quantifies the amount of contingency to cover the expected delay of project delivery. It is based on the quantitative analysis to obtain the descriptive statistics from the simulation outputs (final project durations). Existing deterministic scheduling method apply an arbitrary figures to the amount of delay contingency with uncertainty. However, the stochastic method developed in this research allows computing the amount of delay contingency with certainty and certain degree of confidence. An example project is used to illustrate the quantitative analysis method using simulation. When the statistical location and shape of probability distribution functions defining activity durations change, how the final project duration and cost behave are ascertained using automated sensitivity analysis method