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A Multi-agent System to Assess Land-use and Cover Changes Caused by Forest Management Policy Scenarios (다행위자시스템을 이용한 산림정책별 토지이용 변화와 영향 분석)

  • Park, Soojin;An, Yoo Soon;Shin, Yujin;Lee, Sooyoun;Sim, Woojin;Moon, Jiyoon;Jeong, Gwan Young;Kim, Ilkwon;Shin, Hyesop;Huh, Dongsuk;Sung, Joo Han;Park, Chan Ryul
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.255-276
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    • 2015
  • This paper presents a multi-agent system model of land-use and cover changes, which is developed and applied to the Gariwang-san and its vicinity, located in Pyeongchang and Jeongseon-gun, Gangwon province, Korea. The Land Use Dynamics Simulator (LUDAS) framework of this study is well suited for representing the spatial heterogeneity and dynamic interactions between human and natural environment, and capturing the impacts of forest-opening policy interventions to future socio-economic and natural environment changes. The model consists of four components: (1) a system of human population, (2) a system of landscape environment, (3) decision-making procedures integrating human(or household), environmental and policy information into forest land-use decisions, and (4) a set of policy scenarios that are related to the forest-opening. The results of model simulation by different combination of various forest management scenarios are assessed by the levels of household income, ecosystem service value and income inequality in the study region. As a result, the optimal scenario of forest-opening policies in the study region is to open the forest to local residential community for the purpose of recreation, considering the distinctive topographical feature. The model developed in this research is expected to contribute to a decision support system for sustainable forest management and various land-use policies in Korea.

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When Robots Meet the Elderly: The Contexts of Interaction and the Role of Mediators (노인과 로봇은 어떻게 만나는가: 상호작용의 조건과 매개자의 역할)

  • Shin, Heesun;Jeon, Chihyung
    • Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.135-179
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    • 2018
  • How do robots interact with the elderly? In this paper, we analyze the contexts of interaction between robots and the elderly and the role of mediators in initiating, facilitating, and maintaining the interaction. We do not attempt to evaluate the robot's performance or measure the impact of robots on the elderly. Instead, we focus on the circumstances and contexts within which a robot is situated as it interacts with the elderly. Our premise is that the success of human-robot interaction does not depend solely on the robot's technical capability, but also on the pre-arranged settings and local contingencies at the site of interaction. We select three television shows that feature robots for the elderly and one "dementia-prevention" robot in a regional healthcare center as our sites for observing robot-elderly interaction: "Grandma's Robot"(tvN), "Co-existence Experiment''(JTBC), "Future Diary"(MBC), and the Silbot class in Suwon. By analyzing verbal and non-verbal interactions between the elderly and the robots in these programs, we point out that in most cases the robots and the elderly do not meet one-to-one; the interaction is usually mediated by an actor who is not an old person. These mediators are not temporary or secondary components in the robot-elderly interaction; they play a key role in the relationship by arranging the first meeting, triggering initial interactions, and carefully observing unfolding interactions. At critical moments, the mediators prevent the interaction from falling apart by intervening verbally or physically. Based on our observation of the robot-elderly interaction, we argue that we can better understand and evaluate the human-robot interaction in general by paying attention to the existence and role of the mediators. We suggest that researchers in human-robot interaction should expand their analytical focus from one-to-one interactions between humans and robots to human-robot-human interactions in diverse real-world situations.

Nomenclature of the Seas Around the Korean Peninsula Derived From Analyses of Papers in Two Representative Korean Ocean and Fisheries Science Journals: Present Status and Future (국내 대표 해양·수산 과학논문 분석을 통한 우리나라 주변 바다 이름표기에 대한 제언)

  • BYUN, DO-SEONG;CHOI, BYOUNG-JU
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.125-151
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    • 2018
  • We grouped the names attributed to the seas surrounding the Korean Peninsula in maps published in two major Korean ocean and fisheries science journals over the period from 1998 to 2017: the Journal of the Korean Society of Oceanography (The Sea) and the Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Science (KFAS). The names attributed to these seas in maps of journal paper broadly were classified into three groupings: (1) East Sea and Yellow Sea; (2) East Sea, Yellow Sea, and South Sea; or (3) East Sea, West Sea and South Sea. The name 'East Sea' was dominantly used for the waters between Korea and Japan. In contrast, the water between Korea and China has been mostly labelled as 'Yellow Sea' but sometimes labelled as 'West Sea'. The waters between the south coast of Korea and Kyushu, Japan were labelled as either 'Korea Strait' or 'South Sea'. This analysis on sea names in the maps of 'The Sea' and 'KFAS' reveals that domestic researchers frequently mix geographical and international names when referring to the waters surrounding the Korean Peninsula. These inconsistencies provide the motivation for the development of a basic unifying guideline for naming the seas surrounding the Korean Peninsula. With respect to this, we recommend the use of separate names for the marginal seas between continental landmasses and/or islands versus for the coastal waters surrounding Korea. For the marginal seas, the internationally recognized names are recommended to be used: East Sea; Yellow Sea; Korea Strait; and East China Sea. While for coastal seas, including Korea's territorial sea, the following geographical nomenclature is suggested to differentiate them from the marginal sea names: Coastal Sea off the East Coast of Korea (or the East Korea Coastal Zone), Coastal Sea off the South Coast of Korea (or the South Coastal Zone of Korea), and Coastal Sea off the West Coast of Korea (or the West Korea Coastal Zone). Further, for small or specific study areas, the local region names, district names, the sea names and the undersea feature names can be used on the maps.

A Comparative Analysis of the Level of Occupational Health : Before and After the Subsidiary Program on Health Care Management of Small Scale Industries (영세사업장 보건관리 지원사업 실시 전후의 산업보건수준 비교 분석)

  • Jung, Hye Sun
    • Korean Journal of Occupational Health Nursing
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    • v.4
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    • pp.58-83
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    • 1995
  • The small scale industries which have less than 30 employees occupy 86.5% of total number of industries in Korea. And though they have higher accident rate and lower environmental condition than big industries, it has been not mandatory to appointing health care manager at factory. So, from 1993, government subsidizes to the health care management of small industries. The purpose of this study is to identify the real feature of health care status in small industries, and to evaluate the level of health care management, before and after the subsidiary program. 65 small plating industries which have been managed by the same health care management support institution in 1993 were selected for study. Of the 65 industries, 3 which have not taken both environmental evaluation and health screening in 1994, and 9 which have closed were excluded from study sample. And the remaining 53 were analyzed by using the results of environmental evaluation and health screening, reported to the Ministry of Labor, before and after the subsidiary program, the analysis was done by the comparison of the two year paired data of the same industry. Over-permissible-limit rate, health screening implementation rate, above grade C rate were calculated and compared. The status of health care management ; 1. Of the sample industries, 96.9% provide protective equipment and 80.0% set up ventilating system. Protective gloves (89.2%) and protective clothing (80.0%) are widely provided, but ear plugs (4.6%) are rarely provided. 21.5% of the protective equipment are well put on, and 40.4% of the ventilating systems function well. 2. In 1993, 35 industries, 53.8% of the sample, checked working environment twice. Over-permissible-limit rates of heavy metal (12.2%), suspended particle (11.1%), noise (5.5%) were high. To put on protective equipment and to set up local ventilating system were pointed out by the examiners. 3. General health screening was done at 63.1% of the sample industries and 35.3% of total workers were examined. Specific health screening was done at 93.8% of the sample industries and 75.4% of workers were examined. 15.5% of workers was provided to be above grade C and to have digestive system disease (43.3%), circulatory disease (18.9%), and hematopoietic disease (14.2%), etc. 4. In 1993, the subsidiary program of health care management was provided in forms of health education, health counseling, and rounding check of working field. And 61.5%, 83.0%, 55.4% of sample industries respectively received it. The average visit per industry was 1.8. Comparisons of the level of occupational health before and after the subsidiary program ; 1. Over-permissible-limit rates of hazardous factors of 1993 and that of 1994 were compared. The rates of suspended particle, noise, organic solvent of 1994 (37.5%, 13.4%, 24.2% respectively) were higher than that of 1993 (25.0%, 6.0%, 6.3% respectively). In the case of acid, there was no difference between the rate of 1993 and that of 1994. Only the rate of heavy metal decreased from 12.9% in 1993 to 3.0% in 1994. 2. General health screening was done at 38.7% of the sample industries in 1993 and at 44.6% in 1994. But the implementation rate of specific health screening decreased from 72.4% in 1993 to 64.6% in 1994. 3. The implementation rate of specific health screening was analyzed by some health factors. The rate of suspended particle increased from 61.8% in 1993 to 91.2% in 1994. But the rates of the others-noise, organic solvent, heavy metal, specific chemical substances-decreased. 4. Above grade C rate in health screening increased from 27.8% in 1993 to 35.5% in 1994. But that of endocrine disorders and pulmonary disease decreased.

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A Study on the Landscape Structure and Meaning of Eight Scenic Views of Yeongsa-jeong Pavilion through the Painting and Poem (<영사정팔경도(永思亭八景圖)>와 팔영시로 본 영사정팔경의 경관구조와 의미)

  • Rho, Jae-Hyun;Son, Hee-Kyung;Kim, Hong-Kyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.58-68
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    • 2017
  • The conclusion of this research after analyzing and interpreting the landscape structure and meaning of Yeongsajeongpalkyung (永思亭八景) that appears in Yeongsajeongpalyeongsi(永思亭八詠詩) of Cheonggye(靑溪) Yang, Dae-bak(梁大樸, 1544~1592) and through document studies, poetry and painting analysis and interpretation, and site investigation, is as follows. Yeongsajeong and its nearby lands are the area of "Yeongsa", where the builder, Ahn, Jeon(安?, 1518~1571) worshipped towards the grave of ancestors, and Yeongsajeongpalkyung oversees a family burial ground in Namwon, centering around Yeongsajeong such as Yocheon, Geumseokgyo and Cheonggyedong, and Sunjagang River and Mountain Jiri, which are the foot hold and key points of advantageous scenic views in Namwon. Yeongsajeongpalkyung, unlike general Jeongjapalkyung, shows a panoramic bird's-eye structure overseeing the landscape and scenery of the Yocheon area and Sunjagang River, in addition to Yeongsajeong, while show in a transition of location, a multi-view structure and time. The trace of visual unity with Sosangpalkyung of China can be seen in many places in Yeongsajeongpalkyung, which seems to be a transitional feature of composing poems regarding Palgyeong during the mid-Joseon dynasty, which pursues harmony with the local landscape of the Namwon area. The 'Changsongchwijuk(蒼松翠竹)' appearing in each of the first and second scenic views of Palgyeong and Yeongsajeongpalyeong can be understood as an incarnation of Yang, Dae-bak, the author of Palyeongsi or Ahn, Jeon, the builder of Yeongsajeong. On the other hand, as a result of interpreting the yin-yang features of poetic diction and picture elements appearing in the subtitle of Yeongsajeongpalyeong, Palyeongsi seems mostly full of yin-like elements and Palgyeongdo. Moreover, as a result of comparing and analyzing the acts expressed in and acts described in Yeongsajeongpalyeong, based on the fact that the reis almost no common ground between the two media except for Soongangmowoo, the third scenic view, the formal similarity between the two media can be acknowledged, however, it is difficult to discover any substantive 'integrity of poetry and painting'.

STUDIES ON THE DIMORPHISM AND TRANSITION OF BISEXUALITY OF HETEROSTYLOUS POLYGONACEAE (여뀌과 이형경식물의 Dinorphism과 Bisexuality의 변화)

  • Harn, Chang-Yawl
    • Journal of Plant Biology
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.6-18
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    • 1960
  • The present experiments were designed in order to clarify the differences between the long and short styled plants and the transgressive gradition in the degree of dimorphism among the three heterostylous species of the Polygonus, P. japonica, F. esculentum, and P. senticosa, based on investigations regarding the floral structure, ecological and physiological traits, the results of which are summarized as follows: (1) P. japonica, although it exhibits typical dimorphism, has undergone so high a differentiation between long and short styled that its long styled individuals behave as if they were female; and short styled individuals as if male. In long-styled individuals, filament, anther, and pollen grains show signs of degeneration, most of the pollen being abortive. On the other hand, in short styled individuals, the filament, anther, and pollen grains have attained remarkable development; the pollen grians are large and fertile. In short-plant the fertilized flowers readily drop off in every stage of their embryo development. This species has completely lost the self-fertile property, which is characteristic of the non-dimorphic Polygonum genus. Although this specsei typically exhibits the physiological characteristics of the non-dimorphic Polygonum genus. Although this specisei typically exhibits the physiological characteristics of dimorphism in controlled pollination, the short-styled individuals bear no seed in nature, thus misleading taxonomists to idenfity the short-styled plant as male. 2) The morphological feature of the flower organ of P. senticosa obviously indicates definite dimorphism. Physiologically, however, no differentiation towards dimorphism was observed, the species still retaining, both in long and short-individuals, the self-fertile property common to the Polygonum genus. Elaborate examinations revealed that regardless of the modes of pollination, both fertiization and seed setting flourish, no differentiation betwen legitimate and illegitimate unions being recognizable. This sort of physiological property has not been observed in the investigations of other heterostylous plants. It is assumed that this species is differentiated structurally into dimorphism, but not yet physiologically. In nature, however, this plant would have more opportunities to be cross-pollinated, i.e., legitimately combined, than self-pollinated because of the development of two forms of flowers. 3) In terms of heterostylism, the F. esculentum just occupies the intermediate position between P. japonica and P. senticosa structurally, ecologically, and physiologically. Doescription of some of the physiological behavior of the plant will suffice to demonstrate the above facts. While P. japonica has completely lost its self-fertile property, P. senticosa still retains it wolly. In F. esculentum 2-6% of self-fertility is the result in illegitimate combination. There occur occasionally hereditary self fertile individuals among some of the F. or 20 min. irradiation plot, when they reach any stage of the same bacterial population. In addition to this increase of total population in the plots with the more dose of UV light irradiation, it seems that the more dose of UV light irradiation is the more shortened the generation time of Azotobacter. Therefore, it is clear that variation of reproductive rate must be, mere or less, due to the genetic effects induced by UV light irradiation. On the other hand, the lag phase or logarithmic growth phase in nonirradiated culture is shortened prominently, and this must be due to the difference in bacterial number of the original inoculm. The generation time of Azotobacter is shortened by exogeneous treatment of nuclei acid derivatives, and the degree is greater in case of DNA derivatives than RNA dervatives. W.H. Price reported that the rate of ribose nucleic acid to protein in Staphylococcus muscae is proportional to the generation time: that is the faster the cell can form ribose nucleic acid, the more rapid its growth. This explains the shortening of generation time by exogeneous RNA derivatives in this work reasonably. On the other hand, it is well known that the desoxyribose nuclic acid content per cell is constant and independent of the generation time. A.D. Laren and W.N. Takahashi reported that the infectious RNA from TMV is 6 times as sensitive to inactivation by UV as it is in the form of intact virus, and that inactivation of infectious TMV involves onlu a local change on RNA chain. But, the effect of exogeneous DNA in this work suggests that irradiated living cell which cotain DNA bring about some change on DNA moleculs as well as RNA molecules. And if the mutagenic effects of UV take into consideration, it is very reasonable. Therefore, it is clear that the variation of the generation time by UV irradiation is, more or less, due to the genetic effects. Therefore, it seems that the shortness of the average lifewpan of Azotobacter by UV irradiation is resulted not only from the influence of the environmental conditions, but also from the variation of genetic factor of the individual.

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A Study on Facilities Damage Characteristics Caused by Forest Fire in Goseong-Gun (고성산불로 인한 시설물피해특성 연구)

  • Yeom, Chanho;Lee, Si-young;Park, Houngsek;Kwon, Chungeun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.469-478
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: In this studies we examine the facilities damage characteristics caused by forest fire. Therefore, we surveyed damaged facilities from forest fire which was occurred on Goseong-Gun on march 28 in 2019.(damaged areas was 40ha) The types of facilities uses were house, public facility, warehouse and so on. 17 facilities were destroyed. The purpose of this study was to for establishing a disaster safety village in rural areas where damage from a similar type of disaster occurs repeatedly by conducting the consciousness survey targeting at experts and disaster safety officials in a local government. Method: We surveyed meteorological factors(temperature, wind speed, wind direction, humidity) per a minute for analyzing weather condition on Goseong-Gun when forest fire was occurred, spread and extinguished. And we surveyed forest fire risk factors(a slope degree, a slope direction, a geographical feature, a distance between forest and facility, main species, the existence of crown fire ignition, the direction of facility, the main material of building) around 10 damaged facilities. Finally, we analyzed damage pattern of facilities using meteorological factor and forest fire reisk fator Result: The weather condition of Kanseonng AWS (No.517) was high temperature, arid and strong wind, when the forest fire was occurred and spread. An average wind speed was 4.1m/s and the maximum wind speed was 11.6m/s. The main direction of wind was W(225~315°). Damaged facilities were located on the steep slope area and on the mountaintop. The forest density around facilities was high and main species was korean red pine. The crown fire was occurred in the forest around damaged facilities. The average distance was 13.5m from forest to facilities. When the main matarial of building was made by fire resistance materials (for example, rainforced concrete), the damage was slightly. on the other hand, when by flammable material (for example, a Sandwich Panel), the facilities were totally destroyed Conclusion: The results of this research which were the thinning around house, making a safety distance, the improvement of main material of building and etc, will be helpful for establishing a counter measure for a forest fire prevention of facilities in wild land urban interface

Characteristic on the Layout and Semantic Interpretation of Chungryu-Gugok, Dongaksan Mountain, Gokseong (곡성 동악산 청류구곡(淸流九曲)의 형태 및 의미론적 특성)

  • Rho, Jae-Hyun;Shin, Sang-Sup;Huh, Joon;Lee, Jung-Han;Han, Sang-Yub
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.24-36
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    • 2014
  • The result of the research conducted for the purpose of investigating the semantic value and the layout of the Cheongryu Gugok of Dorimsa Valley, which exhibits a high level of completeness and scenic preservation value among the three gugoks distributed in the area around Mt. Dongak of Gogseong is as follows.4) The area around Cheongryu Gugok shows a case where the gugok culture, which has been enjoyed as a model of the Neo-Confucianism culture and bedrock scenery, such as waterfall, riverside, pond, and flatland, following the beautiful valley, has been actually substituted, and is an outstanding scenery site as stated in a local map of Gokseong-hyeon in 1872 as "Samnam Jeil Amban Gyeryu Cheongryu-dong(三南第一巖盤溪流 淸流洞: Cheongryu-dong, the best rock mooring in the Samnam area)." Cheongryu Gugok, which is differentiated through the seasonal scenery and epigrams established on both land route and waterway, was probably established by the lead of Sun-tae Jeong(丁舜泰, ?~1916) and Byeong-sun Cho(曺秉順, 1876~1921) before 1916 during the Japanese colonization period. However, based on the fact that a number of Janggugiso of ancient sages, such as political activists, Buddhist leaders, and Neo-Confucian scholars, have been established, it is presumed to have been utilized as a hermit site and scenery site visited by masters from long ago. Cheongryu Gugok, which is formed on the rock floor of the bed rock of Dorimsa Valley, is formed in a total length of 1.2km and average gok(曲) length of 149m on a mountain type stream, which appears to be shorter compared to other gugoks in Korea. The rock writings of the three gugoks in Mt. Dongak, such as Cheongryu Gugok, which was the only one verified in the Jeonnam area, total 165 in number, which is determined to be the assembly place for the highest number of rock writings in the nation. In particular, a result of analyzing the rock writings in Cheongryu Gugok totaling 112 places showed 49pieces(43.8%) with the meaning of 'moral training' in epigram, 21pieces (18.8%) of human life, 16pieces(14.2%) of seasonal scenery, and 12pieces(10.6%) of Janggugiso such as Jangguchur, and the ratio occupied by poem verses appeared to be six cases(3.6%). Sweyeonmun(鎖烟門), which was the first gok of land route, and Jesiinganbyeolyucheon(除是人間別有天) which was the ninth gok of the waterway, corresponds to the Hongdanyeonse(虹斷烟鎖) of the first gok and Jesiinganbyeolyucheon of the ninth gok established in Jaecheon, Chungbuk by Se-hwa Park(朴世和, 1834~1910), which is inferred to be the name of Gugok having the same origin. In addition, the Daeeunbyeong(大隱屛) of the sixth gok. of land route corresponds to the Chu Hsi's Wuyi-Gugok of the seventh gok, which is acknowledged as the basis for Gugok Wollim, and the rock writings and stonework of 'Amseojae(巖棲齋)' and 'Pogyeongjae(抱經齋)' between the seventh gok and eighth gok is a trace comparable with Wuyi Jeongsa(武夷精舍) placed below Wuyi Gugok Eunbyeon-bong, which is understood to be the activity base of Cheongryu-dong of the Giho Sarim(畿湖士林). The rock writings in the Mt. Dongak area, including famous sayings by masters such as Sunsaeuhje(鮮史御帝, Emperor Gojong), Bogahyowoo(保家孝友, Emperor Gojong), Manchunmungywol(萬川明月, King Joengjo), Biryeobudong(非禮不動, Chongzhen Emperor of the Ming Dynasty)', Samusa(思無邪, Euijong of the Ming Dynasty), Baksechungpwoong(百世淸風, Chu Hsi), and Chungryususuk-Dongakpungkyung(淸流水石 動樂風景, Heungseon Daewongun) can be said to be a repository of semantic symbolic cultural scenery, instead of only expressing Confucian aesthetics. In addition, Cheongryu Gugok is noticeable with its feature as a cluster of cultural scenery of the three religions of Confucian-Buddhism-Taoism, where the Confucianism value system, Buddhist concept, and Taoist concept co-exists for mind training and cultivation. Cheongryu Gugok has a semantic feature and spatial character as a basis for history and cultural struggle for the Anti-Japan spirit that has been conceived during the process of establishing and utilizing the spirit of the learning, loyalty for the Emperor and expulsion of barbarians, and inspiration of Anti-Japan force, by inheriting the sense of Dotong(道統) of Neo-Confucianism by the Confucian scholar class at the end of the Joseon era that is represented by Ik-hyun Choi(崔益鉉, 1833~1906), Woo Jeon(田愚, 1841~1922), Woo-man Gi(奇宇萬, 1846~1916), Byung-sun Song(宋秉璿, 1836~1905), and Hyeon Hwang(黃玹, 1855~1910).

Radiotherapy in Small Cell Carcinoma of the Uterine Cervix (자궁경부 소세포암종의 방사선치료)

  • Chung Eun Ji;Lee Yong Hee;Kim Gwi Eon;Suh Chang Ok
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.369-377
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    • 1997
  • Purpose : This study was Performed to identify the histopathologic feature by the reevaluation of the Pathologic specimen of the cervical tumors and to evaluate the clinical findings and the treatment results of the patients with small cell carcinoma of the cervix treated by radiotherapy. Materials and Methods : 2890 patients with cervical carcinoma received radiotherapy at the Department of Radiation Oncology. Yonsei Cancer Center, Yonsei University College of Medicine between October 1981 and April 1995. Of the 2890 patients in this data base, sixty were found to have small cell carcinomas $(2.08\%)$. Among them thirty six patients were transferred from other hospitals. the biopsy specimens of those Patients were not available. So we could review the slides of the other twenty four patients who were diagnosed at our hospital. Twenty four patients with small cell carcinoma of the cervix were analyzed retrospectively based on the assessment of H & E staining and other four immunohistochemical stains for neuroendocrine differentiation (neuron specific enolase, chromogranin. synaptophysin and Grimelius stain). And we also evaluate the Patients and tumor characteristics. response to radiation. patterns of failures, 5 year overall and disease free survival rates. Results : Thirteen tumors were neuroendocrine carcinomas(13/24 = $54.2\%$) and eleven tumors were squamous carcinomas, small cell type (11/24 = $47.8\%$) based on the assessment of H & E staining and other four neuroendocrine marker studies. So we classified the Patients two groups as neuroendocrine carcinoma and small cell type of squamous carcinoma, Among the 13 neuroendocrine carcinomas, five were well to moderately differentiated tumors and the other eight were Poorly differentiated or undifferentiated ones. The median age was 54 years old (range 23-79 years). Eight Patients had FIGO stage IB disease, 12 had stage 11, 3 had stage III and one had stage IV disease, Pelvic lymph node metastases were found in five Patients $(20.8\%)$. three of them were diagnosed by surgical histologic examination and the other two were diagnosed by CT scan. There was no difference between two histopathologic groups in terms of patients and tumor characteristics. response to radiation. 5 year overall and disease free survival rates. However the distant metastases rate was higher in neuroendocrine carcinoma Patients (6/13:$46.2\%$) than in small cell type of squamous carcinoma Patients (2/11:$18.2\%$), but there was no statistically significant difference because of the small number of patients (P>0.05). Conclusion : More than half of the small cell carcinoma of the cervix patients were neuroendocrine carcinoma (13/24 : $54.1\%$) by reevaluation of the biopsy specimen of the cervical tumors. The tendency of distant metastases of the neurolndocrine carcinoma was greater than those of the small cell type of squamous carcinoma $(46.2\%\;vs.\;18.2\%)$. But there were no differences in the patients and tumor characteristics and other clinical treatment results in both groups. These data suggest that radical local treatment such as radiotherapy or radical surgery combined with combination systemic cytotoxic chemotherapy might provide these patients with the best chance for cure.

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Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.