• Title/Summary/Keyword: Likelihood Analysis

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On the Bayesian Statistical Inference (베이지안 통계 추론)

  • Lee, Ho-Suk
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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    • 2007.06c
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    • pp.263-266
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    • 2007
  • This paper discusses the Bayesian statistical inference. This paper discusses the Bayesian inference, MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) integration, MCMC method, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, Gibbs sampling, Maximum likelihood estimation, Expectation Maximization algorithm, missing data processing, and BMA (Bayesian Model Averaging). The Bayesian statistical inference is used to process a large amount of data in the areas of biology, medicine, bioengineering, science and engineering, and general data analysis and processing, and provides the important method to draw the optimal inference result. Lastly, this paper discusses the method of principal component analysis. The PCA method is also used for data analysis and inference.

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A study on the impact prediction in environmental impact statement (환경영향평가서 영향예측에 대한 연구)

  • 이영경
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.89-100
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    • 1997
  • The purpose of this paper was to analyze the content of impact prediction in EISS, in order to find the degree of the acuracy of impact prediction . 30 EISS were selected as analysis objects through variance miximization strategy. Content analysis of the selected EISS was performed by 5 analysis items, such as quantification of measurement, range of impact area, time frame of impact, likelihood of impact, and explict characterization of impact significance. The results showed that the accuracy investigated by the 5 items was very low. In conclusion, 5 suggestions were proposed in order to improve the credibility of EIS as a scientific report. The 5 suggestions were : 1) impact prediction should be described by quantitative measurement; 2) In establishing the time frame of the impact and the referent populatioin influenced by the impact, the characteristics of the proposed action should be carefully considerd; 3) the significance of the predicted impact should be quantitatively described; 4) specific description should also be used in the likelihood or the probability of the predicted impact in a real world; 5) equal emphasis should be put on the three environment, including natural and social as well as living environment.

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Determinants of the Onset of Adolescent Runaway Behavior : An Application of Discrete-Time Survival Analysis (비연속시간 생존분석을 적용한 청소년의 최초 가출 발생시점에 대한 영향요인 연구)

  • Hong, Sehee;Kim, Dong Ki
    • Korean Journal of Child Studies
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.217-233
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    • 2007
  • The present study investigated the effects of individual, family, school, and community factors on the onset of adolescent runaway behavior. Using the Korean Youth Panel data(n=3,118), discrete-time survival analysis was applied for research purposes. Results showed that the likelihood of onset of adolescent runaway behavior increased sharply during the early middle school years. The variables of self-control, aggression, parents' divorce, paternal abuse, attachment with parents, and number of delinquent peers were associated with the likelihood of runaway behavior. These results suggest that special attention should be paid to adolescents in the early middle school years and that various preventive programs, e.g., aggression and stress management, and peer relations programs, should be developed and implemented.

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Evaluation of the Signal Word Cognition using Quantification Methods (수량화 분석을 이용한 신호단어의 인식도 평가)

  • 고병인;김동하;임현교
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.134-138
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    • 2000
  • Signal words such as DANGER, WARNING, CAUTION, etc. have been used in order to transmit a potential hazard easily and quickly. But they were applied to a number of the sites without consistency. Thus, this study took Quantification Method and Cluster Analysis in order to judge the signal words corresponding to the urgency of situations, and to analyze whether signal words are used properly or not. According to the result of Quantification Method II signal words were most affected by Understanding, Severity and Likelihood in both student group and industrial worker group. And in Quantification Method III CAUTION corresponded to Immediacy and Understanding whereas NOTICE did to Receptivity, WARNING, DEADLY and DANCER did to Likelihood, Dangerousness and Severity. Finally, Cluster Analysis showed that CAUTION and NOTICE were recognized as similar words.

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Probabilistic Landslide Susceptibility Analysis and Verification using GIS and Remote Sensing Data at Penang, Malaysia

  • Lee, S.;Choi, J.;Talib, En. Jasmi Ab
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.129-131
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    • 2003
  • The aim of this study is to evaluate the hazard of landslides at Penang, Malaysia, using a Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing. Landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of aerial photographs and field surveys. The topographic and geologic data and satellite image were collected, processed and constructed into a spatial database using GIS and image processing. The used factors that influence landslide occurrence are topographic slope, topographic aspect topographic curv ature and distance from drainage from topographic database, geology and distance from lineament from the geologic database, land use from TM satellite image and vegetation index value from SPOT satellite image. Landslide hazardous area were analysed and mapped using the landslide-occurrence factors by probability - likelihood ratio - method. The results of the analysis were verified using the landslide location data. The validation results showed satisfactory agreement between the hazard map and the existing data on landslide location.

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Cost Analysis on Warranty Policies Using Freund's Bivariate Exponential Distribution

  • Park, Minjae;Kim, Jae-Young
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: In this paper, the minimal repair-replacement warranty policy is used to carry out a warranty cost analysis with warranty servicing times and failure times that are statistically correlated to bivariate distributions. Methods: Based on the developed approach by Park and Pham (2012a), we investigate the property of the Freund's bivariate exponential distribution and obtain the number of warranty services using the field data to conduct the warranty cost analysis. Results: Maximum likelihood estimates are presented to estimate the parameters and the warranty model is investigated using a Freund's bivariate exponential distribution. A numerical example is discussed to deal with the applicability of the developed approach in the paper. Conclusion: A novel approach of analyzing the warranty cost is proposed for a product in which failure times and warranty servicing times are used simultaneously to investigate the eligibility of a warranty claim.

A Study on Selection of Distribution Function for Reliability Prediction Using Accelerated Life Test Data (가속 수명시험 데이터를 기반으로 하는 신뢰성 예측에 적합한 분포 함수 선택에 관한 연구)

  • Kim Ji-Hun;Park Dong-Gue;Han Hyun-Kak
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.393-397
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    • 2006
  • The study about Accelerated Life Test and analysis of failed data is increased in order to predict and evaluate reliability of products, according as the development cycle of products is reduced. Therefore, the decision of optimal distribution function about failed data for accurate analysis of failed data and test condition for Accelerated Life Test is very important. This paper compares Anderson-Darling method with Likelihood Function method for the decision of optimal distribution function about failed data. Anderson-Darling considers only failed data and Likelihood Function considers both failed data and life-stress relationship in decision of distribution function. In the results of comparison about two methods, we found that the distribution function chosen by each method is different and the life time predicted by each decided distribution function is different.

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A New Approach to Communication Method in Forest Science and Media Type Effects: An Application of Elaboration Likelihood Model (새로운 산림커뮤니케이션 접근방법의 모색과 미디어별 효과 차이: 정교화 가능성 모델의 적용)

  • Hong, Sung-Kwon;Park, Mi Sun;Kim, Jae Hyun;Lee, Sang-Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.96 no.4
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    • pp.377-386
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    • 2007
  • This study testes an application possibility of the Elaboration Likelihood Model broadly used in communication science into forest science and examines the communication effects according to the media types. To examine the effectiveness of this model, the study sets involvement, the need for cognition, and the need for effect as motivation variable and prior knowledge as an ability variable. Most variables appear to be significant in the regression analysis and results of the study verify the possibility of the application of the Elaboration Likelihood Model in forest science. To measure the media effects, a simulation is also carried out using three media including television, newspaper, and the Internet. According to ANOVA analysis, television is more persuasive than newspaper, and there is no difference between television and the Internet in terms of persuasiveness. Regarding recall, television and the Internet are more effective than newspaper. Finally, the present study suggests effective and efficient forest communication policies based on the results.