• Title/Summary/Keyword: Lifetime Prediction

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Bayesian Prediction of Exponentiated Weibull Distribution based on Progressive Type II Censoring

  • Jung, Jinhyouk;Chung, Younshik
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.427-438
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    • 2013
  • Based on progressive Type II censored sampling which is an important method to obtain failure data in a lifetime study, we suggest a very general form of Bayesian prediction bounds from two parameters exponentiated Weibull distribution using the proper general prior density. For this, Markov chain Monte Carlo approach is considered and we also provide a simulation study.

A STUDY ON FUEL ESTIMATION ALGORITHMS FOR A GEOSTATIONARY COMMUNICATION & BROADCASTING SATELLITE

  • Eun, Jeong-Won
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.249-256
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    • 2000
  • It has been developed to calculate fuel budget for a geostationary communication and broadcasting satellite. It is quite essential that the pre-launch fuel budget estimation must account for the deterministic transfer and drift orbit maneuver requirements. After on-station, the calculation of satellite lifetime should be based on the estimation of remaining fuel and assessment of actual performance. These estimations step from the proper algorithms to produce the prediction of satellite lifetime. This paper concentrates on the fuel estimation method that was studied for calculation of the propellant budget by using the given algorithms. Applications of this method are discussed for a communication and broadcasting satellite.

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A Lifetime Prediction Modeling for PMOSFET degraded by Hot-Carrier (I) (Hot-Carrier로 인한 PMOSFET의 소자 수명시간 예측 모델링(I))

  • 정우표;류동렬;양광선;박정태;김봉렬
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics A
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    • v.30A no.8
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    • pp.49-56
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    • 1993
  • In this paper, we present a new lifetime prediction model for PMOSFET by using the correlation between transconductance degradation and substrate current influence. The suggested model is applied to a different channel structured PMOSFET, dgm/gm of both SC-PMOSFET and BC-PMOSFET appear with one straigth line about Qbib, therefore, this model is independent of channel structure. The suggested model is applied to a different drain structured SC-PMOSFET. Unlike S/D structured SC-PMOSFET, dgm/gm of LDD structured SC-PMOSFET appears with one straight line about Qb, therefore, this model is dependent of drain structure.

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A probabilistic analysis of Miner's law for different loading conditions

  • Blason, Sergio;Correia, Jose A.F.O.;Jesus, Abilio M.P. De;Calcada, Rui A.B.;Fernandez-Canteli, Alfonso
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.60 no.1
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    • pp.71-90
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, the normalized variable V=(log N-B)(log ${\Delta}{\sigma}-C$-C), as derived from the probabilistic S-N field of Castillo and Canteli, is taken as a reference for calculation of damage accumulation and probability of failure using the Miner number in scenarios of variable amplitude loading. Alternative damage measures, such as the classical Miner and logarithmic Miner, are also considered for comparison between theoretical lifetime prediction and experimental data. The suitability of this approach is confirmed for it provides safe lifetime prediction when applied to fatigue data obtained for riveted joints made of a puddle iron original from the Fao bridge, as well as for data from experimental programs published elsewhere carried out for different materials (aluminium and concrete specimens) under distinct variable loading histories.

Life-Cost-Cycle Evaluation Analysis of the Shunting Locomotive (입환기관차의 LCC 평가분석)

  • Bae Dae-Sung;Chung Jong-Duk
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.260-266
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    • 2005
  • The deterioration of a shunting locomotive was characterized for the lifetime assessment. The locomotive has been used for shunting works in steel making processes, and in this investigation, various types of technical evaluation methods for the locomotive parts were employed to assess the current deterioration status and to provide important clue for lifetime prediction. Unlike other rolling stocks in railway applications, the diesel shunting locomotive is composed of major components such as diesel engine, transmission, gear box, brake system, electronic devices, etc., which cover more than 70 percent of the total price of the locomotive. Therefore, in this paper, each part of major components in the diesel locomotive was analyzed in terms of the degree of deterioration. The lift-cycle-cost (LCC) analysis was performed based on the maintenance and repair history as compared with economical cost to provide the cost-effective prediction, i.e., to assess either repair for reuse or putting the locomotive out of service based on cost-effective calculation.

A Lifetime Prediction Modeling for PMOSFET Degraded by Hot-Carrier (II) (Hot-Carrier로 인한 PMOSFET의 소자 수명시간 예측 모델링 II)

  • 정우표;류동렬;양광선;박종태;김봉렬
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics A
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    • v.30A no.9
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    • pp.30-37
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    • 1993
  • In this paper, we present a simple and general lifetime prediction model for PMOSFET by using the correlation between transconductance degradation and gate current influence to solve a problem that that I$_{b}$ is dependent on drain structure. The suggested model is applied to a different channel, drain structured PMOSFET. For all PMOSFETs, dg$_{m}$/g$_{m}$ of PMOSFET appears with one straight line about Q$_{g}$, therefore, this model using I$_{g}$ is consistent with experiment result independently of channel, drain structure. It is, therefore, proposed that a model using I$_{g}$ has a general applicability for PMOSFET's.

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Useful Lifetime Evaluation of Rubber Component for Elevator Cabin (승강기용 방진고무부품 특성 및 사용수명 평가)

  • Woo, Chang-Su;Park, Hyun-Sung
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.576-580
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    • 2008
  • Rubber material properties and useful life evaluation are very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability of the rubber components. In this paper, the evaluation of characteristics and useful life prediction of rubber component for elevator cabin were experimentally investigated. The material test and accelerated heat-aging test were carried. Rubber material constants were obtained by curve fittings of simple tension, pure shear and bi-axial tension test data. Heat aging test results changes as the threshold are used for assessment of the useful life and time to threshold value were plotted against reciprocal of absolute temperature to give the Arrhenius plot. By using the rubber material and component test several useful life prediction equations for rubber component were proposed. Predicted useful life of rubber component for elevator cabin agreed fairly with the experimental lives.

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Lifetime Prediction of Automotive Airbag Fabrics (자동차 에어백용 원단의 수명예측)

  • Koo, Hyun-Jin;Cho, Hang-Won;Chang, Gap-Shik
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.319-329
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    • 2009
  • The airbag module is an inflatable restraint system that inflates within 0.05 seconds automatically in a collision to protect the occupants. The airbag fabrics used in the module are required to have the good resilience and strength and also to have retained at least 80% of mechanical properties after using longer than 10 years. In this study, we develop an accelerated test method in order to predict the lifetimes of airbag. In this test, we select temperature and humidity as environmental stresses by analyzing the failure mechanisms of coated and uncoated nylon 66 fabrics. It is found that the degradation of airbag fabrics is effectively accelerated under the combined conditions of high temperature and humidity. Analyzing the results of the accelerated test, the lifetimes of airbag fabrics are predicted to be longer than 10 years.

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Life-Cost-Cycle Evaluation Analysis of the Shunting Locomotive (입환기관차의 LCC 평가분석)

  • Chung Jong-Duk;Kim Jeong-Guk;Pyun Jang-Sik;Kim Pil-Hwan
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.551-556
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    • 2004
  • The deterioration of a shunting locomotive was characterized for the lifetime assessment. The locomotive has been used for shunting works in steel making processes, and in this investigation, various types of technical evaluation methods for the locomotive parts were employed to assess the current deterioration status and to provide important clue for lifetime prediction. Unlike other rolling stocks in railway applications, the diesel shunting locomotive is composed of major components such as diesel engine, transmission, gear box, brake system, electronic devices, etc., which cover more than 70 percent of the total price of the locomotive. Therefore, in this paper, each part of major components in the diesel locomotive was analyzed in terms of the degree of deterioration. The life-cycle-cost (LCC) analysis was performed based on the maintenance and repair history as compared with economical cost to provide the cost-effective prediction, i.e., to assess either repair for reuse or putting the locomotive out of service based on cost-effective calculation.

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Prediction of Life Time of Rail Rubber Pad using Reliability Analysis Method

  • Park, Dae-Geun
    • International Journal of Railway
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.13-25
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    • 2013
  • Railpad prevents damage of the tie and ballast by reducing the impact and high frequency vibration, which occurs when a vehicle load transfers to a tie. But elasticity of the railpad can decrease under vehicle load and over usable period. If that happens, railpad will become stiffer. Increase in stiffness of the railpad also translates into a rise in track maintenance cost because it accelerates the damage of the track. In this study, accelerated heat ageing test was performed to predict an expectable lifetime of the railpad. As a result, it was predicted to be about sixteen years at $25^{\circ}C$ that life time of railpad using NR rubber from Arrhenius relationship. Also, it was predicted to be about thirty-two days at $100^{\circ}C$. At this time, a standard rate of thickness change is approximately within 12%.