• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• 제46권3호
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• pp.83-97
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• 2021

Background: The lifetime risk of lung cancer incidence due to radiation for nonsmokers is overestimated because of the use of the average cancer baseline risk among a mixed population, including smokers. In recent years, the generalized multiplicative (GM)-excess relative risk (ERR) model has been developed in the life span study of atomic bomb survivors to consider the joint effect of radiation and smoking. Based on this background, this paper discusses the issues of radiation risk assessment considering smoking in two parts. Materials and Methods: In Part 1, we proposed a simple method of estimating the baseline risk for nonsmokers using current smoking data. We performed sensitivity analysis on baseline risk estimation to discuss the birth cohort effects. In Part 2, we applied the GM-ERR model for Japanese smokers to calculate lifetime attributable risk (LAR). We also performed a sensitivity analysis using other ERR models (e.g., simple additive (SA)-ERR model). Results and Discussion: In Part 1, the lifetime baseline risk from mixed population including smokers to nonsmokers decreased by 54% (44%-60%) for males and 24% (18%-29%) for females. In Part 2, comparison of LAR between SA- and GM-ERR models showed that if the radiation dose was ≤200 mGy or less, the difference between these ERR models was within the standard deviation of LAR due to the uncertainty of smoking information. Conclusion: The use of mixed population for baseline risk assessment overestimates the risk for lung cancer due to low-dose radiation exposure in Japanese males.

• Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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• 제49권1호
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• pp.16-25
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• 2022

In mammalian species, females are born with a number of oocytes exceeding what they release via ovulation. In humans, an average girl is born with over a thousand times more oocytes than she will ovulate in her lifetime. The reason for having such an excessive number of oocytes in a neonatal female ovary is currently unknown. However, it is well established that the oocyte number decreases throughout the entire lifetime until the ovary loses them all. In this review, data published in the past 80 years were used to assess the current knowledge regarding the changing number of oocytes in humans and mice, as well as the reported factors that contribute to the decline of oocyte numbers. Briefly, a collective estimation indicates that an average girl is born with approximately 600,000 oocytes, which is 2,000 times more than the number of oocytes that she will ovulate in her lifetime. The oocyte number begins to decrease immediately after birth and is reduced to half of the initial number by puberty and almost zero by age 50 years. Multiple factors that are either intrinsic or extrinsic to the ovary contribute to the decline of the oocyte number. The inflammation caused by the ovulatory luteinizing hormone surge is discussed as a potential contributing factor to the decline of the oocyte pool during the reproductive lifespan.

• 대한화장품학회지
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.197-201
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• 2007

유용성감초추출물(oil soluble licorice extract)은 미백에 효능이 있는 원료로서, 미백 효과가 최적으로 유지되는 유통기한을 알아야 할 필요가 있다. 실온 상태에서의 화장품 유통기한을 측정하는 것이 제품의 개발 기간에 비해 상대적으로 길기 때문에 가혹 조건하에서의 성분 변화 실험을 통해 실제 유통기한을 예측하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 유용성감초추출물의 수명과 가속온도 스트레스와의 관계를 아레니우스식에 의해 분석하였다. 가속 온도 스트레스 설정 시 화장품 제형이 변하지 않는 온도 범위내인 50, 55 및 $60^{\circ}C$로 설정하였고, 이 구간 내에서 일정 스트레스 부과 방식을 설정하여 실험을 수행하였다. 본 연구에서 화장품 중 유용성감초추출물의 수명은 초기함량의 10%가 감소되는 시간으로 정의하였으며, 각 온도에서의 유용성감초추출물의 수명은 $50^{\circ}C$에서 580 h, $55^{\circ}C$에서 319 h, $60^{\circ}C$에서 166 h로 측정되었다. 실험 결과값을 아레니우스 모델에 적용하여 유용성감초 추출물의 수명과 온도 사이의 수명 관계식[log(수명)=-35.0243+1.15322$\times$(11604.83/온도)]을 도출하였고, 이 식에 의해 $25^{\circ}C$에서 유용성감초추출물의 수명은 26 개월로 예측할 수 있었다. 예측 결과는 유용성감초추출물을 실온에서 측정한 결과로 검증하였으며 95% 신뢰수준에서 수명 예측값과 실제값은 유의하지 않았다. 이 연구 방법은 주름 및 미백개선용 기능성 화장품들의 유통기한을 빠르고 정확하게 예측하는데 기여할 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국항공우주학회지
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• 제36권11호
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• pp.1126-1131
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• 2008

본 논문은 궤도 기하학 기반 바이어스 추정기법을 다목적실용위성 1호 및 2호의 자기센서 측정데이터에 적용하여 위성체 태양전지판과 전장박스에서 발생하는 유도자기장 바이어스를 추정한다. 유도자기장 바이어스의 추정과 적절한 보정은 자기센서의 노후화를 대처하고 수명을 최대한 연장하여 정상적으로 위성 임무를 수행을 가능하게 한다.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제14권5호
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• pp.11-19
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• 2012

PURPOSES: The new methodology is proposed for estimation of long-term performance and pavement life based on the national highway database in Daejeon area. Furthermore, this study tried to verify the applicability of performance estimation using NHPCI (National Highway Pavement Condition Index) on tendency of pavement deterioration as time goes by under Korean road environments. METHODS: Reliability theories are applied to estimate the mean life and to determine the appropriate distribution using 3 levels of traffic loads (high, medium, low) based on maintenance and rehabilitation history data for 15 years. RESULTS: As a result, Lognormal distribution is suitable for explanation of pavement lifetime in Daejeon area regardless of traffic loads. In addition, we found that the results of mean life and maintenance timing based on NHPCI for the pavement sections of 3 levels of traffic loads are available. CONCLUSIONS: Based on this study, it was found that mean life of high, medium and low levels of traffic loads are about 8.1 years, 12.2 years and 12.7 years, respectively. Higher level of traffic loads shorten the pavement mean life.

• Animal Bioscience
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• 제36권12호
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• pp.1806-1820
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• 2023

Objective: The present study was aimed primarily for estimating various genetic parameters (heritability, genetic correlations) of reproduction (age at first calving [AFC], first service period [FSP]); production (first lactation milk, solid-not fat, and fat yield) and lifetime traits (lifetime milk yield, productive life [PL], herd life [HL]) in Tharparkar cattle to check the association of reproduction traits with lifetime traits through two different methods (Frequentist and Bayesian) for comparative purpose. Methods: Animal breeding data of Tharparkar cattle (n = 964) collected from Livestock farm unit of ICAR-NDRI Karnal for the period 1990 through 2019 were analyzed using a Frequentist least squares maximum likelihood method (LSML; Harvey, 1990) and a multi-trait Bayesian-Gibbs sampler approach (MTGSAM) for genetic correlations estimation of all the traits. Estimated breeding values of sires was obtained by BLUP and Bayesian analysis for the production traits. Results: Heritability estimates of most of the traits were medium to high with the LSML (0.20±0.44 to 0.49±0.71) and Bayesian approach (0.24±0.009 to 0.61±0.017), respectively. However, more reliable estimates were obtained using the Bayesian technique. A higher heritability estimate was obtained for AFC (0.61±0.017) followed by first lactation fat yield, first lactation solid-not fat yield, FSP, first lactation milk yield (FLMY), PL (0.60±0.013, 0.60±0.006, 0.57±0.024, 0.57±0.020, 0.42±0.025); while a lower estimate for HL (0.38±0.034) by MTGSAM approach. Genetic and phenotypic correlations were negative for AFC-PL, AFC-HL, FSP-PL, and FSP-HL (-0.59±0.19, -0.59±0.24, -0.38±0.101 and -0.34±0.076) by the multi-trait Bayesian analysis. Conclusion: Breed and traits of economic importance are important for selection decisions to ensure genetic gain in cattle breeding programs. Favourable genetic and phenotypic correlations of AFC with production and lifetime traits compared to that of FSP indicated better scope of AFC for indirect selection of life-time traits at an early age. This also indicated that the present Tharparkar cattle herd had sufficient genetic diversity through the selection of AFC for the improvement of first lactation production and lifetime traits.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제4권
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• pp.97-107
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• 1993

In this paper we propose a nonparametric estimator of the men residual life function (MRLF) on a coherent system under the condition that the component lifetimes are censored by system lifetime. It is shown that the proposed estimator, considered as a function of age t, converges weakly to a Gaussian process on a fixed interval. A consistent estimator of asymptotic variance of the proposed estimator is also given.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.13-29
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• 2005

This paper deals with the stochastic analysis of a three-states semi-Markov reliability model. Using both the maximum likelihood and Bayes procedures, the parameters included in this model are estimated. Next, assuming that the lifetime and repair time are generalized exponential random variables, the reliability function of this system is obtained. Then, the distribution of the first passage time of this system is discussed. Finally, some of the obtained results are compared with those available in the literature.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.1091-1102
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• 2003

The Weibull variate is commonly used as a lifetime distribution in reliability applications. Estimation of parameters is revisited in the two-parameter Weibull distribution. The method of product spacings, the method of quantile estimates and the method of least squares are applied to this distribution. A comparative study between a simple minded estimate, the maximum likelihood estimate, the product spacings estimate, the quantile estimate, the least squares estimate, and the adjusted least squares estimate is presented.

• 한국신뢰성학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국신뢰성학회 2000년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.299-311
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• 2000

This paper is concerned with the method of estimating lifetime distribution for field data in warranty period and for a situation where some additional field data can be gathered after the warranty period. Implementing the proposed methods in this paper will result in obtaining the more precise product life time estimation and product improvement.