• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.124-132
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• 2018

This paper presents a shelf life assessment for K-1 military gas masks in the Republic of Korea using test data of Chemical Materiels Stockpile Reliability Program(CSRP). For the shelf life assessment, over 2,500 samples between 2006 and 2015 were collected from field tests and analyzed to estimate a probability of proper and improper functionality using Bayesian estimation. For this, three stages were considered; a pre-processing, a processing and an assessment. In the pre-processing, major components which directly influence the shelf life of the mask were statistically analyzed and selected by applying principal component analysis from all test components. In the processing, with the major components chosen in the previous stage, both proper and improper probability of gas masks were computed by applying Bayesian estimation. In the assessment, the probability model of the mask shelf life was analyzed with respect to storage periods between 0 and 29 years resulting in between 66.1 % and 100 % performances in accuracy, sensitivity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
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• 제19권8호
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• pp.77-84
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• 2005

수명예측을 하기 위한 기초 자료로 ACSR의 기계적 시험의 일종인 인장시험이 필요하다. 이 인장시험의 결과들이 경년 변화에 대해 어떤 상관관계가 있는가를 파악하여 통계적으로 처리함으로써 수명예측을 해 볼 수 있다. 통계적 처리기법으로는 회귀분석 방법이 일반적이다. 본 연구에서는 ACSR의 인장시험을 건전 전선과 인공화염으로 열화시킨 전선과, 산불 화염 의해 수거된 열화된 전선에 대해 실시하였다. 수명예측의 한계는 캐나다 Ontario Hydro Research의 기준인 정격 인장강도의 20[%] 손실점을 택하였다. 본 연구에 이용된 ACSR의 규격은 ACSR $480[mm^2]$을 대상으로 하여 비선형 회귀분석을 실시하여 예측수명을 제시하였다.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.120-126
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• 1999

수명예측을 하기 위한 기초자료로 ACSR의 기계적 시험의 일종인 인장시험이 필요하다. 이 인장시험의 결과들이 경년 변화에 대해 어떤 상관관계가 있는가를 파악하여 통계적으로 처리함으로써 수명예측을 해 볼 수 있다. 통계적 처리기법으로는 회귀분석 방법이 일반적이다. 본 연구에서는 ACSR의 인장시험을 건전 전선과 수거된 경년 변화를 갖는 전선에 대해 실시하였다. 수명예측의 한계는 캐나다 Ontario Hydro Research의 기준인 정격 인장강도의 20[%] 손실점을 택하였다. 본 연구에 이용된 ACSR의 규격은 $95[\textrm{mm}^2]$, $97[\textrm{mm}^2]$, $120[\textrm{mm}^2]$, $240[\textrm{mm}^2]$ 를 대상으로 하여 선형회귀분석과 비선형 회귀분석을 실시하여 예측수명을 제시하였다. 분석프로그램으로는 SPSS와 Matlab의 Statistics Toolbox를 이용하였다.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제30권5D호
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• pp.497-504
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• 2010

본 연구에서는 최근 10년간의 수원과 의정부지역의 국도 포장구간의 수명 데이터를 기반으로 신뢰성 개념을 도입하여 포장 수명의 고장확률, 신뢰도, 평균 수명 등의 정보를 산정하는 방안을 제시하였다. 모수적 추론 방법인 최우추정법과 확률지를 이용하여 최적 수명분포형태가 대수정규분포임을 확인하였으며, 본 연구에서 제안한 대수정규수명분포에 의해 추정된 누적 고장확률이 실제 관측값과 차이가 거의 없음도 확인하였다. 나아가 추정된 모수를 기반으로 신설 포장과 덧씌우기 포장의 하중별 평균 수명을 산정한 결과, 각각 6.5년~7.9년과 7.3년~9.1년으로 추정되었으며 상대적으로 덧씌우기 구간의 평균수명이 더 길게 추정되었다. 본 연구에서 제안한 신뢰성 개념을 이용한 분석 방법은 포장관리 및 유지보수 데이터가 축적되어감에 따라 비교적 용이하게 계속 보완이 가능하며 보다 정확한 포장수명에 대한 신뢰도 값에 접근해 갈 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 지식경영연구
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.49-63
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• 2007

This paper presents a new methodology that allows the influence of technological obsolescence and technology composite competitiveness to estimate technology economic life. In this paper the patent citation life analysis is used to estimate technology representative life, and technology residual life analysis is employed to estimate residual life using the linear and inverse functions. The technology economic life will be determined by combining the estimation results of patent citation life analysis and technology residual life analysis. This paper includes an example of applying it to the US patent data for 5 communications areas. Therefore, this logical concept can be applied usefully to determine the technology economic life and be expected to contribute to obtain credibility of technology valuation.

• 풍력에너지저널
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.34-42
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• 2023

The reduction of operation and maintenance (O&M) costs is a critical factor in determining the competitiveness of wind energy. Predictive maintenance based on the estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) is a key technology to reduce logistic costs and increase the availability of wind turbines. Although a mechanical component usually has sudden changes during operation, most RUL estimation methods use the trend of a state index over the whole operation period. Therefore, overestimation of RUL causes confusion in O&M plans and reduces the effect of predictive maintenance. In this paper, two RUL estimation methods (load based and data driven) are proposed for the bearings of a wind turbine with the results of trend classification, which differentiates constant and increasing states of the state index. The proposed estimation method is applied to a bearing degradation test, which shows a conservative estimation of RUL.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• 제25권5호
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• pp.1058-1064
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• 2001

In this paper, the development of probability distribution estimation program for fatigue crack growth lives was summarize. The probability distribution estimation program of life was developed to increase the reliability of life estimation. In this study, it is considered that the cause of scatter in fatigue crack growth data is due to material inhomogeneity. The material resistance to fatigue crack growth is modelled as a spatial stochastic process, which varies randomly along the crack path. We developed the GUI program to estimate the probability distribution and reliability using the non-Gaussian stochastic process method. This program can be used for the reliability assessment.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 2007년도 정기 학술대회 논문집
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• pp.341-345
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• 2007

The objective of this paper is to introduce a project on developing construction method based estimation system. It means a 3D product model based estimation system to effectively and efficiently manage estimation process during the project life-cycle. This paper describes a outline and method for 3D based estimation system. Normally, it is not easy to take-off the quantity from 3D CAD model, because of all different depths of the quantity take off in each design development stage and nation. This study shows how to keep the balance of its depths in each design development stage such as schematic design, detail design, shop drawing, and so forth.

• 한국전기전자재료학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전기전자재료학회 2000년도 제2회 학술대회 논문집 일렉트렛트 및 응용기술전문연구회
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• pp.25-28
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• 2000

In this paper, the technology for accelerating degradation & life estimation on the traction motor was introduced with the stator form-winding sample coils of the 200 Class insulation system The accelerative degradation was performed in 10 cycles, which were composed of thermal stress, fast rising surge voltage, vibration, water immersion and overvoltage applying. After aging of 10 cycles, condition diagnosis test such as insulation resistance & polarization index, capacitance & dielectric loss and partial discharge properties were investigated in the temperature range of $20{\sim}160^{\circ}C$. Relationship between degradation conditions and diagnosis results were analyzed to find an dominative degradation factor at the end-life point

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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• 제5권4호
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• pp.429-443
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• 2018

Fatigue is a principal failure mode for steel structures, and it is still less understood than any other modes of failure. Fatigue life estimation of metal bridges is a major issue for making cost effective decisions on the rehabilitation or replacement of existing infrastructure. The fatigue design procedures given by the standard codes are either empirical or based on nominal stress approach. Since the fatigue life estimation through field measurements is difficult and costly, more researches are needed to develop promising techniques in the fatigue analysis of bridges through Finite Element Analysis (FEA). This paper aims to develop a methodology for the Fatigue life estimation of railway steel bridge using FEA. The guidelines of IIW-1823-07 were used in the development of the methodology. The Finite Element (FE) package ANSYS and the programming software MATLAB were used to implement this methodology on an Indian Railway Standard (IRS) welded plate girder bridge. The results obtained were compared with results from published literature and found satisfactory.