• Title/Summary/Keyword: Kolmogorov 모델

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Flight Technical Error Modeling for UAV supported by Local Area Differential GNSS (LADGNSS 항법지원을 받는 무인항공기의 비행 기술 오차 모델링 기법)

  • Kim, Kiwan;Kim, Minchan;Lee, Dong-Kyeong;Lee, Jiyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.43 no.12
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    • pp.1054-1061
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    • 2015
  • Navigation accuracy, integrity, and safety of commercial Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) is becoming crucial as utilization of UAV in commercial applications is expected to increase. Recently, the concept of Local-Area Differential GNSS (LADGNSS) which can provide navigation accuracy and integrity of UAV was proposed. LADGNSS can provide differential corrections and separation distances for precise and safe operation of the UAV. In order to derive separation distances between UAVs, modeling of Flight Technical Error (FTE) is required. In most cases, FTE for civil aircraft has been assumed to be zero-mean normal distribution. However, this assumption can cause overconservatism especially for UAV, because UAV may use control and navigation equipments in wider performance range and follow more diverse path than standard airway for civil aircraft. In this research, flight experiments were carried out to understand the characteristics of FTE distribution. Also, this paper proposes to use Johnson distribution which can better describe heavy-tailed and skewed FTE data. Futhermore, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling tests were conducted to evaluate the goodness of fit of Johnson model.

Failure Probability Models of Concrete Subjected to Split Tension Repeated- Loads (쪼갬인장 반복하중을 받는 콘크리트의 파괴확률 모델)

  • 김동호;김경진;이봉학;윤경구
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.311-314
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    • 2003
  • Concrete structures such as bridge, pavement, airfield, and offshore structure are normally subjected to repeated load. This paper proposes a failure probability models of concrete subjected to split tension repeated-loads, based on experimental results. The fatigue tests were performed at the stress ratio of 0.1, the loading shape of sine, the frequency of 20Hz, and the stress levels of 90, 80 and 70%. The fatigue test specimen was 150mm in diameter and 75mm in thickness. The fatigue analysis did not include which exceeded 0.9 of statistical coefficient of determination values or did not failure at 2$\times$$10^6$ cycles. The graphical method, the moment method, and maximum likelihood estimation method were used to obtain Weibull distribution parameters. The goodness-of-fit test by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was acceptable 5% level of significance. As a result, the proposed failure probability model based on the two-parameter($\alpha and \mu$) Weibull distribution was good enough to estimate accurately the fatigue life subjected to tension mode.

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Calculation of Two-Phase Turbulent Jet with a Two-Equation Model (2-方程式 모델 에 의한 二相亂流 제트流動 의 數値解析)

  • 양선규;최영돈
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.714-724
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    • 1985
  • Two-phase(air-solid, air-liquid droplet) turbulent round jet has been analyzed numerically using two equation turbulence model. The mean motion of suspending particles in air has been treated as the secondary fluid with virtual density and eddy viscosity. In this paper, the local mean velocity of secondary fluid is not assumed to be the same as that of the primary one. Dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy which arises because the particles can not catch up with the turbulent fluctuations of the primary fluid has been modelled by using the concept of Kolmogorov's spectral energy transfer. Numerical computations were performed for flows with different volume fraction of the dispersed phase and the diameter of particle. Results show that the total rate of turbulent energy dissipation, turbulent intensities and spreading rate of jets are reduced by the increase of volume fraction of dispersed phase. However it does not show consistent tendency with increasing the particle diameter. This investigation also shows that presence of particles in the fluid modifies the structure of the primary fluid flow significantly. Predicted velocity profiles and turbulence properties qualitatively agree with available data.

Statistical Probability Analysis of Storage Temperatures of Domestic Refrigerator as a Risk Factor of Foodborne Illness Outbreak (식중독 발생 위해인자로서 가정용 냉장고의 온도에 대한 확률분포 분석)

  • Bahk, Gyung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.373-376
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    • 2010
  • The objective of this study was to present the proper probability distribution model based on the data obtained from surveys on domestic refrigerator food storage temperatures in home. Domestic refrigerator temperatures were determined as risk factors in foodborne disease outbreaks for microbial risk assessment (MRA). The temperature was measured by directly visiting 139 homes using a data logger from May to September of 2009. The overall mean temperature for all the refrigerators in the survey was $3.53{\pm}2.96^{\circ}C$, with 23.6% of the refrigerators measuring above $5^{\circ}C$. Probability distributions were also created using @RISK program based on the measured temperature data. Statistical ranking was determined by the goodness of fit (GOF, i.e., the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or Anderson-Darling (AD) test) to determine the proper probability distribution model. This result showed that the LogLogistic (-10.407, 13.616, 8.6107) distribution was found to be the most appropriate for the MRA model. The results of this study might be directly used as input variables in exposure evaluation for conducting MRA.

Quantitative Estimation Method for ML Model Performance Change, Due to Concept Drift (Concept Drift에 의한 ML 모델 성능 변화의 정량적 추정 방법)

  • Soon-Hong An;Hoon-Suk Lee;Seung-Hoon Kim
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.259-266
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    • 2023
  • It is very difficult to measure the performance of the machine learning model in the business service stage. Therefore, managing the performance of the model through the operational department is not done effectively. Academically, various studies have been conducted on the concept drift detection method to determine whether the model status is appropriate. The operational department wants to know quantitatively the performance of the operating model, but concept drift can only detect the state of the model in relation to the data, it cannot estimate the quantitative performance of the model. In this study, we propose a performance prediction model (PPM) that quantitatively estimates precision through the statistics of concept drift. The proposed model induces artificial drift in the sampling data extracted from the training data, measures the precision of the sampling data, creates a dataset of drift and precision, and learns it. Then, the difference between the actual precision and the predicted precision is compared through the test data to correct the error of the performance prediction model. The proposed PPM was applied to two models, a loan underwriting model and a credit card fraud detection model that can be used in real business. It was confirmed that the precision was effectively predicted.

Simulation of Run-Length and Run-Sum of Daily Rainfall and Streamflow (일수문량의 RUN-LENGTH 및 RUN-SUM의 SIMULATION)

  • 이순택;지홍기
    • Water for future
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.79-94
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    • 1977
  • This study is aimed at the establishment and examination of stochastic model to simulate Run-length and Run-sum of daily rainfall and streamflow. In the analysis, daily rainfall records in major cities (Seoul, Kangnung, Taegu, Kwangju, Busan, and Cheju) and daily streamflow records of Major rivers (Han, Nakdong and Geum River) were used. Also, the fitness of daily rainfall and streamflow to Weibull and one parameter exponential distribution was tested by Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, from which it was found that daily rainfall and streamflow generally fit well to exponential type distribution function. The Run-length and Run-sum were simulated by the Weibull Model (WBL Model), one parameter exponential model (EXP-1 Model) based on the Nonte Carlo technique. In this result, Run-length of rainfall was fitted for one parameter exponential model and Run-length of streamflow was fitted for Weibull model. And Run-sum of rainfall and streamflow were fit comparatively for regression model. Hereby, statistical charactristics of Simulation data were sinilar to historical data.

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Future projections of extreme precipitation by using CMIP6 database at finer scales over South Korea (CMIP6 기후변화 자료를 이용한 국내 미래 극한강우의 예측)

  • Kim, Jongho;Van Doi, Manh
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.368-368
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    • 2021
  • 기후 변화로 인한 극한사상의 크기와 빈도 변화를 예측하는 것은 수공 인프라 설계에 있어 주된 관심사 중 하나이다. 보통 극한사상에 대한 강도, 빈도, 지속시간에 대한 정보가 필요하며, 이는 일반적으로 IDF(Intensity-Duration-Frequency) 곡선으로부터 추출된다. 최근 CMIP(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) 6단계에서 새로운 이산화탄소 배출 시나리오와 업데이트된 기후모델을 이용하여 미래의 기후에 대한 예측 시계열을 발표했으므로, 미래 기후 변화 시나리오를 기반으로 IDF 곡선을 새로 추정하고 미래 기간의 변화를 평가할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 한국의 40개 지역에 대해 일단위 자료를 시단위로 축소(downscaling)한 후, 확률론적 일기생성기(stochastic weather generator)를 이용하여 30년 시단위 시계열을 100개의 앙상블로 생성하였다. 생성된 시계열로부터 연최대강수량 시계열을 재구성하여 GEV 분포와 gumbel 분포에 적용하였다. 적합도 검정(Anderson-Darling(AD) 검정 및 Kolmogorov-Smirnov(KS) 검정)을 수행하였으며, 과거 자료를 기반으로 생성된 IDF 곡선과 비교 검증하였다. CMIP5의 기후변화 자료를 사용한 결과와 CMIP6 기후변화의 결과를 비교하였으며, 본 연구의 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. (1) 향후 강우 강도는 증가할 것이며 강우 강도의 증가는 말기에 현저하게 관찰될 것이다. (2) 시간별 강우 강도의 미래 변화가 일단위 강우 강도보다 더 크다. (3) 강우 강도의 불확실성을 정량화하기 위해 앙상블을 사용해야 한다. (4) 강우 강도의 미래 변화에 대한 공간적인 경향이 확인된다. 시단위 시계열 앙상블을 생성하여 추정된 IDF 곡선에 대한 정보는 기후 변화의 영향을 평가하고 적절한 적응 및 대응 전략을 개발하는 데 도움이 될 것이다.

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Exploring Branch Structure across Branch Orders and Species Using Terrestrial Laser Scanning and Quantitative Structure Model (지상형 라이다와 정량적 구조 모델을 이용한 분기별, 종별 나무의 가지 구조 탐구)

  • Seongwoo Jo;Tackang Yang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.31-52
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    • 2024
  • Considering the significant relationship between a tree's branch structure and physiology, understanding the detailed branch structure is crucial for fields such as species classification, and 3D tree modelling. Recently, terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and quantitative structure model (QSM) have enhanced the understanding of branch structures by capturing the radius, length, and branching angle of branches. Previous studies examining branch structure with TL S and QSM often relied on mean or median of branch structure parameters, such as the radius ratio and length ratio in parent-child relationships, as representative values. Additionally, these studies have typically focused on the relationship between trunk and the first order branches. This study aims to explore the distribution of branch structure parameters up to the third order in Aesculus hippocastanum, Ginkgo biloba, and Prunus yedoensis. The gamma distribution best represented the distributions of branch structure parameters, as evidenced by the average of Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics (radius = 0.048; length = 0.061; angle = 0.050). Comparisons of the mode, mean, and median were conducted to determine the most representative measure indicating the central tendency of branch structure parameters. The estimated distributions showed differences between the mode and mean (average of normalized differences for radius ratio = 11.2%; length ratio = 17.0%; branching angle = 8.2%), and between the mode and median (radius ratio = 7.5%; length ratio = 11.5%; branching angle = 5.5%). Comparisons of the estimated distributions across branch orders and species were conducted, showing variations across branch orders and species. This study suggests that examining the estimated distribution of the branch structure parameter offers a more detailed description of branch structure, capturing the central tendencies of branch structure parameters. We also emphasize the importance of examining higher branch orders to gain a comprehensive understanding of branch structure, highlighting the differences across branch orders.

Impact of the Crossed-Structures Installed in Streams and Prediction of Fish Abundance in the Seomjin River System, Korea (하천에 설치된 횡구조물의 영향 및 섬진강 수계의 어류 풍부도 예측)

  • Moon, Woon Ki;Noh, Da Hye;Yoo, Jae Sang;Lim, O Young;Kim, Myoung Chul;Kim, Ji Hye;Lee, Jeong Min;Kim, Jai Ku
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.100-106
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    • 2022
  • The relationships between river length and weir density versus fish species observed were analyzed for 210 local rivers in the Seomjin River system (SJR). A nonlinear exponential relationship between river length and number of fish species were observed. Model coefficient was 0.03 and coefficient of determinant (R2) was 0.59, meaning that about 59.0% of total variance was explained by river length variable. Predicted value by model and observed number of species showed a difference. About 110 local rivers (about 52.4%) showed lower value than predictive value. The average index of weir's density (IWD) in the SJR was about 2.7/km, which was significantly higher than that of other river basins. As a result of nonparametric 2-Kimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov (2-DKS) analysis based on the IWD, the threshold value affecting fish diversity was about 2.5/km (Dmax=0.048, p<0.05). Above the threshold value, it means that the number of fish species would be decreased. In fact, the ratio of the expected species to the observed species was lowered to less than 70%, when the IWD is higher than the threshold value. To maintain aquatic ecological connectivity in future, it is necessary to manage IWD below the threshold value.

The effect of guided flapless implant procedure on heat generation from implant drilling (수술가이드를 이용한 무피판 임플란트 술식에서 임플란트 드릴링이 열발생에 미치는 효과)

  • Yoo, Je-Hyeon;Jeong, Seung-Mi;Choi, Byung-Ho;Joo, Sang-Don
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate the heat generation in bone in vitro during the guided flapless drilling procedure and the effect of drilling methods on the heat generation. Materials and methods: A model that has missing the first and second mandibular molars bilaterally was used. In group A, classical flap implant surgery was performed. In group B, flapless implant surgery using surgical guide was performed. In group C, flapless implant surgery using surgical guide without up-and-down pumping motion was performed. Temperature was measured with k-type thermocouple and a real-time digital thermometer. The thermocouples were placed at 0.5 mm away from the osteotomy area at the depths of 3 mm and 6 mm. The measured values were evaluated with independent t-test. Results: The mean temperature generated was $27.2^{\circ}C$ ($SD{\pm}2.1^{\circ}C$) and $27.5^{\circ}C$ ($SD{\pm}2.3^{\circ}C$) for groups A and B, respectively. These differences were not statistically significant. In group C, the mean temperature was $37.0^{\circ}C$ ($SD{\pm}3.4^{\circ}C$). There were statistically significant differences between groups B and C with respect to the mean temperature. Conclusion: These findings suggest that guided flapless drilling with up-and-down pumping motion may not significantly increase the bone temperature.